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Come To Daddy!
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Come To Daddy!

by The MoleFebruary 23, 2012

You guys have been quiet today which hopefully is not a sign of inactivity as we are knee-deep in profitable setups, especially on the FX and commodities side (see my prior post about silver and crude). Let’s revisit two which are soon ripe for the plucking:

Euro/Yen – we went long near support at 102.50 and it’s been one juicy short squeeze ever since. As previously stated – I’m holding out for 108 and may start scaling out slowly starting tomorrow.

Then there’s the USD/CHF, which completely fell off the plate today and is now heading toward the 88 mark. I’ll be waiting – mmwwwuuaahaahaaaa!! Alright, I’m taking my pills now – no worries…

Cable did us the courtesy of holding support yesterday and if you took that long setup you’re looking pretty green right now – and not with envy like everyone reading this who wasn’t a sub yesterday.

A few new excellent setups for my intrepid subs – please step into my dusty lair:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Dollar/Yen – excellent inside candle setup. I initially didn’t like it but fortunately we bounced around quite a bit today which gives us less space between both tops and bottoms. You know the drill – if not please consult the Evil Speculator cheat sheet.

Aussie/Yen – a potential RTV Sell setup: I would be short on a breach of today’s lows.

Put the Loonie on your map – I think a breach of par could be golden, especially since the 25-day SMA is offering resistance right o the spot. Could get us at least to that next NLBL – probably higher.

Euro/Swiss – could be a nice continuation trend trade. It failed its NLSL and everything is starting to drop on this one. I’m short with a tight stop above that NLSL – let’s see what happens.

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UPDATE – I just put together a wrap up video of today’s Zero indicator session – make sure to watch it in 720p:

Another good example of how to trade a trend day – enjoy!

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    are you the ghost in the machine Mole? That picture is funny, yet freaky at the same time.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/7187b952-7c90-4457-be1d-59c4336c2094/2012-02-23_1652.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/446986f3-874e-4444-9aaf-e5d080b2c505/2012-02-23_1654.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/61bd89d4-9a89-4278-9290-c036d5092ecd/2012-02-23_1653.png
    That EUR/JPY breaks my heart. Sadly I cashed out at 102 and never messed with it again like I was in January. Yes, looking at this chart that sucker move up is really really good. Scaling out slowly? Whew brass cojones for sure, but I don’t blame you let that come to you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous

    Still holding tight on EUR/JPY.  Sadly I was a little late on entry, but it was a cracking call.  Thanks Uncle Mole!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I live to sever :-)

  • Anonymous

    Still holding EUR/JPY  that’s a quick 134 pips thank you very much sir.

  • Anonymous

    market’s still dripping up since the cash close.

  • Anonymous

    I don’t know if anyone follows VIX products here. But someone bought 1 million shares of TVIX at 16.21 after hour, maybe someone is expecting the VIX to pop soon? Considering that TVIX is actually trading above its NAV, this move is dangerous….

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/OYB4TQPZZFNFC63R523CYJW5X4 WilliamM

    I think you need a “Rubber Johnny” post one of these days… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDp8rNtxtBE

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no change in risk today.
    still pointing skyward.
    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p40722578863 

  • Anonymous

    yep, everyone is just getting complacent as ever

  • Anonymous

    Probably just short covering.  Your right regarding the premium, according to Bill from vix and more the TVIX premium today spiked to 13.5% above it’s intraday indicative value (he was short TVIX at the time)

  • Anonymous

    Sever the leaches? 😉  

    Hey mole did you see my comment on the divergences / correlation on your MMMRs?  Be interested if you see a relationship there. 

  • Anonymous

     Space elevator?

  • Joe_Jones

    Yes I tell you. Even this old bear gone hibernating. 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just added a wrap up video of today’s Zero indicator session – enjoy!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What are you guys constantly bitching about? I think you’re spending too much time reading ZeroHedge – jeeezes…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    VIX – yeah, sounds vaguely familar – LOL :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did NOT see it pointman – can you email it to me? admin@ 

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://profile.yahoo.com/Q3LHQDJ5L53LKMEY7MMBMBIONE Chris

     Mole,

    In calculating the TICK Alert, does the indicator use the 1-minute closes as a percentage of the 45 minutes in the sample?  For example, let’s assume that there are 7, 1-min closes below zero, then is the percentage calculated as (45-7 = 38) and (38/45 = 84.4%).  If the signal is proprietary, I understand that you can’t provide clarification, but since you have it listed under Cheat Sheet, I thought you might be able to clarify.  Thanks much.  Your stuff is excellent.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    And all those winning setups I posted – did you take any of them? You keep spending a lot of time here but it seems you are not leveraging any of the setups I keep putting up. Are you a sub? If not – well, then you know what to do.

  • Joe_Jones

    I have been a sub for over a year now. I seldom trade currencies because I am not really familiar with FX, albeit I’m learning and find it more and more interesting. But my rate of success in banking coins with it is rather low. 
     It would help if you could come up with the name of a good FX broker. I don’t trade commodities because I do not understand them (except gold, silver and copper which I use as proxies). I have been mostly trading stocks but I am not really happy with my performance lately. I am in the red for 2012 and certainly do not enjoy it. Zero was very useful in 2011, but in the last 2 months wasn’t much of a help in my trades. Add to the lot the failed VIX signals we got recently, record low volumes, huge opening gaps, no decent correction since the start of the Christmas rally, fibs ratios and wave theory gone to the trash, experts such as Tom DeMark getting it wrong and an amazing complacency among traders as to the direction the market is heading, and it is no wonder one could be tired of this bullshit. Right now I prefer to be out of the market rather than being long. When we start to get -2 and lower signals on the 5 min ZL, I might consider trading again.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “I seldom trade currencies because I am not really familiar with FX”

    Well, as you said – you had a year to learn. FX really is not brain surgery. You can come up to speed on 80% of what you need to know in one weekend, give or take. I keep hearing that from people all the time – ‘Mole I don’t trade xxxx’. Well, why the heck not? Why limit yourself to a market that has no edge for long periods of time? There are ton of setups in commodities and Forex while many of you guys waste time watching AAPL.

    My 2 cents – you may disagree but you can’t argue with the setups.

  • Joe_Jones

    I don’t argue with the set-ups Mole. I just don’t like trading blindly. Right now the market stinks so I prefer to be an observer. 

  • Anonymous

    Good morning all! I sympathize with you JJ. Just recently I have become more bearish, like many of you know I have started shorting pairs I normally go long on etc AUD/JPY ZAR/USD. It would be sad not seeing you on here once the action starts to roll in our favor. I know the frustrating feeling your are going through. You know how this “market” works. And you KNOW this small creepy crawling action is slowing down pretty badly. If you are tired of this slow motion action then do what you think is best and take a break from it.

  • http://twitter.com/tinpm Tin Piano Man

     “FX really is not brain surgery. You can come up to speed on 80% of what you need to know in one weekend, give or take.”

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/17d9ab4c-0aba-4c69-9219-1399e5636c80/2012-02-24_0520.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/99212d58-15e3-4df1-a380-28a5e35e372a/2012-02-24_0521.png
    ….USD/ZAR stop out .Ill wait to go long again within next hour.Obviously my stops have become the perfect magnet lately. AUD/JPY stop out too it said Peek-a-boo I see you at 86.50 (stop). Whatever I have plenty of ammo left for this abomination. I WILL continue placing my shorts below. Everything gets erased, long profits and short profits if kept too long. 90s bull market nearly erased in a month. The bull run of late 2010 into 2011 erased essentially too. You can see for yourself that none of these runs whether bull or bear do not last for long.When it does run for long periods. The snap back to reality is always a nightmare. Now going back to drinking my espresso and have a cigarette on front porch. 😉

  • Anonymous

    Mole, congratulations! EUR/JPY did it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    :-)

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1a7f811f-0eec-4a77-b258-de7fb45d1a92/2012-02-24_0727.png
    despite risk of sucker move again happening I’m entering short here. Hey, at least Mole is gone from EUR/JPY. Love that guy but it was him I guess keeping Yen weak!! 😉

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Earlier, the Gerb posted $BPSPX

    so, try this one

    $NYSI (look at the Renko as well)

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks AMC. This whipsaw business is killing my account. I’ll be back when the robots switch to sell mode.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Bro no problem..Dont give up. Your view on copper is another reason why I cant go long and WILL not UNTIL I see a straight rip down for a week or two until sentiment gets very bearish and the end of the world is on Sunday again according to ZH.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Terminator was cheesy in retrospect.
    http://i44.tinypic.com/1gsvv7.png

    But I told ya he’d be back.
    Bear flag on the Inverse, B!tchz.
    😉

  • Anonymous

    E-mini volume 1st 1/2hr only about 5k/minute.  WOW, that is extremely weak.  Won’ttake much to move this market.  I know some numbers coming out 9:55 & 10 (Cons. Conf. and  Home sales)  but still…

  • Anonymous

    Nice. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    This is for the new guys.
    how can the market rally so incredibly insane?  think Zimbabwe.
    the dollar is getting cheaper.  the Markets priced in dollars go higher.  yeah – crazy.

    I’ve had a dialog with Skynard, ok – I did most of the talking…
    and even though the dollar stalled for a few more days than I expected.  trend continues (downward).

    The inverse T should point to the end of the madness.
    -DG

    http://i42.tinypic.com/345g6cn.png

  • Anonymous

    mmmm..Guess what Stopped out again AUD/JPY. Gotta love it.

  • Anonymous

    copper just got some legs

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    86.66 – it’s a sign.

  • seek_truth

    DG – I am still trying to understand the T,  why would you not slide the center of the T over to the 17th ?  thanks for any feedback

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    good Question.
    you can!  T’s can be positioned in single or double tops.
    I post conservative locations.
    one could trade a core position on the conservative T, and then speculate on the riskier T.

  • Anonymous

    MMM maybe the mirror image of SPX 666 uh. anyhow resetting 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    ps.
    a T on the 17th would put an ending late march.similar to my large SPX forecast on my blog.

  • Anonymous

    Completed re-test.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/7c7e7bac-4e5f-4582-913c-74ac70b5e986/2012-02-24_1026.png
    If you do not want to lower your life expectancy I would just wait for this horse play to come to you. A clean break and staying below action of black line.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    just notice the low on SDS.
    16.11 for 10 minutes, muwahahaha.

    off to work.
    Ciao.

  • Anonymous

    oil is carrying the market…if it turns, good to be a bear…

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous
  • Joe_Jones

    so far exact double top at 1367.76

  • tradingmom

    Triangle on the hourly signal (not the smoothed.)

  • Kudos

    EUR/USD has reached escape velocity and is now in outer space. Check out the daily chart with any bollinger your heart desires

  • Anonymous

    Hell of a retest.  I see it missing Monday high by .04 right towards the end of 41/45 minutes (91% pos.) TICK i.e. trend day but no follow thru, at least not yet.

  • Anonymous

    Yo no intiendo exactamente

  • Anonymous

    placing my stop there and not expecting it to be hunted down.

  • Anonymous

    I think he means that he got fooled into taking the wrong side of that trade.  AUD.JPY gapped up and looked to have topped only to turn around and make a new high.  I’m ticked off for another reason – I WAS long the bugger and bailed way, way too long ago!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    mom’s back!?
    top top TOP.
    (Gerb runs down the hallways screaming)
    😉

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    AUDUSD is struggling to rally..so far..I guess it could change next week, but may also be a warning sign that the risk on trade may be coming to an end..at least temporarily
    Also looking at the leads in this rally..DAX, Tech, seem to be struggling to make headway..

  • Anonymous

    HG may have been lagging this last leg up by /ES, but it sure is putting on a clinic this morning.  

  • Anonymous

    long USD/CAD for a trend for the day (new hourly momo range in yellow from this a.m.) held NLSL and lower BB30,1,1 (a la Cabrera)
    http://screencast.com/t/2Oybvd64i

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    if you had a 2.5 bollinger –
    you could avoid punk’d zones..mostly.

    http://i43.tinypic.com/x3wg2v.png 

  • Anonymous

    OptionsHawk: Intense call buying across metals names today…platinum, coal, gold, silver, copper..u name it

  • Anonymous

    Must be the top:) Late comers!

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/68b84453-ff33-4fc2-b545-56bdde114a52/2012-02-24_1135.png
    mean while back at the lair our super heroes…Like I said before just wait. Bull or Bear for a clean and sustain break.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    how about (no break) and (this is) a trading range for next week?

  • Anonymous

    any top might just be a pineapple upside down cake…

  • Anonymous

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-shuts-money-manager-after-funds-go-missing-2012-02-24?link=MW_home_latest_news

    Japan’s financial regulator has ordered money manager AIJ Investment Advisors Co. to halt operations for a month after the Tokyo firm was not able to account for nearly $2.3 billion in pension-fund assets

    money seems to have legs like Andy Dufren

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The Gerb needs to take his meds…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey there! How’s the Nachwuchs?

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/563a62b9-1f77-4fa6-80ca-58418db06031/2012-02-24_1216.png
    And with that I now wait to see if the nightie night happens if it drops back below red line. And if it does hold then I have to either quit shorting or wait much longer to short again.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/524806b4-d124-4300-ae2d-c2ae866f014c/2012-02-24_1232.png
    What I do not understand is the AUD/USD and AUD/JPY action, it looks like I would have been much better off shorting that pair. At least my sucker play would have worked in my favor.

  • http://twitter.com/gmbpost GMB post

    Try these guys out for MNI fx real time news….far cheaper than Bloomberg or reuters.
    http://fnn24.com/ 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    as much as price has been fondling SDS 16.11 the last hour.
    there is a yearly pivot down at 15.92

    it’s Friday, so i’m unsure if we get any more price action.
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    I have had a bit of success with aud/usd past couple weeks but not aud/jpy. Jpy still very weak.

  • Anonymous

    Graph of SPX vs VXO. Both at same price level of July top.

  • Anonymous

    Nice, my troops are wavering pretty badly here.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    AUD/JPY
    whom will you serve?
    http://i42.tinypic.com/20h25fr.png
    -DG

  • Anonymous

    Just another ‘we should correct’ chart/indicator. My patience, too, is wearing thin.   Can’t bring myself to even buy pullbacks because of all these ‘correction coming’ charts/ind. but keep telling myself (and wife) I could’ve been shooting myself in foot repeatedly trying to get then stay short.  Just protecting small profits until we get, hopefully, correction we can be part.

  • Anonymous

    Gonna have to move the line up. Printed 86.6975 that quick: triple top maybe…never mind, there goes 86.7175 as I type.

  • Anonymous

    Multi-year double top baby:)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah.  only the hard core EvilSpec rats get the warning.
    😉
    86.73 as I type.

  • Anonymous

     I understand. I warned it was going to be very tough. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    is it a clean break?

  • Anonymous

    You knew it was not going to be that easy. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yes.
    Thursday was a trend day.  Fridays settle down.
    AND we are dancing a few points around the big DOW 13K.
    I’ve learned to back off around the big numbers. (from) back in the 10,11K days.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I was suspecting such.
    the SDS quarterly pivot line is no slouch to be messed with.
    the SPX should correspond.
    ;-D

  • Anonymous

    Isn’t there an equities ‘rule of thumb’ that 3rd time retests need to go thru (strong?) or nice failure move happens?, If so, does it apply to currencies?

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    he he.
    trading range come on, it will make a good plot for next week.

  • Fibz

    bought some SCO

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    my L*rd, glad it was just some.
    look at that thing!

    on second thought, could cascade very quickly to a low on the 27/28th? with a V bounce!

    the oil thing is getting loud in the press last few days.
    and like Mole says, when everybody knows? it’s worthless!

  • Fibz

    yea, my timing might be a bit off, but i think risk reward favors the downside for oil here.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yep.
    oh Voooolar.  paging Dr. Volar.

  • Schwerepunkt

    “Shake the Devil.” This was written by Tommy Bolin for Linda Blair, typecast for her role in The Exorcist. The two dated for a time. Great guitars and brass section. Big fan of Tommy. Too bad he died so young (overdose). Only two albums produced by this amazing dude.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACd6MFZyJVE

  • Anonymous

    Going short now AUD/JPY. Screw it, placing stop above at 87.00.

  • Anonymous

    is that a technical level… the screw part?

  • Anonymous

    VIX is showing a bit of green here despite SPX moving up.  Note of caution though – zero is taking a snooze while SPX moves back to VWAP then a bit under and remember, it’s a trend day (even if only moderate).  

  • Anonymous

    Brave.

  • Anonymous

    LOL! I just sick of this. It is not like I have gone short at oversold levels by any stretch of the imagination. 

  • Anonymous

    Been a couple of frustrating weeks my friend. With ya there.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    Short /CL on the third attempt of 110. Who the hell can afford gas at $5.00 gallon? At least while Bucky is getting off the pot:)

  • Anonymous

    Bernanke and co.

  • Anonymous

    OPX weekly, who knows?

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    /ES has fallen out of bed, zero is only just beginning to stir.  It’s a trend day BUT a ridiculously toppy market and VIX is on fire.  Got suckered in earlier and have now broken even.  I think I’ll leave my chips on the (short) table even though most of my instincts suggest that cashing out and waiting for Monday is the smarter play.  I’ll submit to the Mole lashing at 4pm when events prove me wrong!

  • Anonymous

    Meanwhile, GC is heading into the first of two air pockets created by gaps this week as we write.

  • Anonymous

    There will always be another trade to take another day. Being safe is nothing to sneeze at.

  • Anonymous

    Well perhaps that was another divergence in ZL

  • Schwerepunkt

    Got pretty extreme readings on the TICK at 2:31pm of -1153. I suspect that is it for this downdraft.

  • Anonymous

    usd/cad parity time

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Why? Stepping under a falling knife can be painful.

  • tradingmom

    They are keeping me super busy.  Good, but busy.  Not enough time for much trading :-(