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Comment Cleaner: Not So Fast!
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Comment Cleaner: Not So Fast!

by The MoleNovember 21, 2008

Damn, I was just getting warmed up to the idea of maybe turning bullish next week, but then I saw this:

Maybe the bottom is not in just yet…. to be continued on Sunday 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • de3600

    I dont know could see 850 on S and P as retracement and than down again plus you have the ban on short selling news/hearing I think are on mondayYou have the citi bank deal who the fuck knows how that gonna go anything postive i think the market can fly/but than you have home resales coming out monday/plus the new tres might say shit to boost the markket so i have no idea.

  • SittingDuck

    /es has to crack 835, downtrend from election day. until then, all bullish comments have to be taken in the light of minutes and hours.

  • SteveInChicago (spsnomad)

    I don't thing that home sales affect the market much anymore. It used to be a really important number, but I think it's just baked in that economically (and seasonally), it's going to be terrible.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I see some great waves on a weekly chart. Check out nasdaq 100. Its always the best in terms of waves. Looks like we are in the final 5th wave from early June. Boy those waves are text book. ? is, where will the 5th wave end? All i know is we are close. Bears should be on there guard. When this pops it will end up back to 1400.

  • molecool

    Why are you shooting for 1400?

  • gagelle

    The Deadly Dirty D-Words: “Deflation”, “Debt Deflation” and “Defaults”. And How Central Banks Will Have to Resort to “Crazy” Policies as We Have Reached Such Bermuda Triangle of a “Liquidity Trap”
    by Nouriel Roubini

    http://tinyurl.com/6alx8u
    [Open in new window]

  • hiker

    SPX monthly since 1996, also displays QQQQ data

    scroll to the end here for the Nov 21st chart update –

    http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_

  • stopsarein

    Hi,

    Im one of the leeches , so what you gonna do shoot me ? Top job on the blog . Just a totally self serving idea for you so that myself and the other leaches can grow distinctly fatter . RSS takes its time to update when you post and also your intraday updates dont come through. If you used the twitter plugin .. http://wordpress.org/extend/plugins/twitter-tools/ your edits i believe come through quicker than RSS. Like i said go ahead and shoot.

  • Erikd

    Just my view in regards to news: After reading or hearing a story,article,etc. as it pertains to the economy, whats going on in the world I NEVER try to DISSECT or ANALIZE what i have read or heard to form a BIAS as to which way the market may move. I let the CHARTS tell me the direction to form my BIAS. thats all that matters when it comes to trading the market successsfully.
    We all have a personal view when we interpurt information which is based on our values and principles but NEVER EVER let your personal view get in the way in determining which way the market will go. THE CHARTS are the only THING that can do that. SPEND your precious time in a useful manner by learning how to read CHARTS that give the clues to which way it goes. There is way to many posts on blogs by traders that are not successful YET in thier trading that give thier BIAS for market direction based on how they view what they read or heard. WHEN you learn to FINALLY not let your personal view influence your BIAS for which way the market may go and become a STUDENT of studying charts you will turn into a SUCCESSFUL trader. Good Luck to all Here that can leave your personal views to yourself as it pertains to market BIAS when the opening bell rings and trade each day based ONLY on the CHARTS. RE READ this as many times as it takes. You will no when you have finally understand this because your account balance will tell you that. Hope this help! peace

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    New post:

    http://moontrader.wordpress.com

    Trend is well down, my dear, or better, bear friends.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Thats the top of wave 4. Most likely will go past that.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    How many here have puts?
    I saw the same article above, and this is a rally to sell IMHO. But many of my charts are screaming oversold, so I won't hesitate to get in on calls either.

  • de3600

    I have to laugh its time for change same old washington nothing will ever change on the beltway.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Moontrader, thank you for that post. I think it was one of your best yet. Question for you though: awhile back you felt that the bottom would come in around the 24th. I'm assuming that is no longer valid? All that I was really able to gain from your spiral chart is that the downward spikes (in terms of their duration) are getting shorter and often more pronounced, and that this next push down may be (MAY be) the last. Correct?
    +1 — thanks!

  • gagelle

    Erikd, thanks again for your valuable comments. I'm still learning to interpret the charts, but you've been a great teacher. The question I have is that we've been using USO as one leading indicator. Obviously, oil won't fall forever. How do you know when the relationship has changed and how do you find a new leading indicator? For example, I remember a time when the market went down as oil went up.

  • molecool

    “Just a totally self serving idea for you “

    Really? I never made a buck off of this blog.

  • stopsarein

    I think you misread my post Mole. Self was me .. one of your readers. It was just a suggestion.

  • molecool

    Seriously, dude – you are so busy spouting platitudes that you didn't even take the time to think about the deeper meaning of what I was trying to convey.

    What I was trying to convey is the concept of 'market sentiment' – which continues to be bullish. Which also means that we are far far away from seeing a 'bottom'. Maybe we'll see a low sometime next week, but a bear market ain't over until you stop seeing 'buy the dip' articles. It's quite obvious from our recent work here that we don't base our trading/analysis on headlines or MSNBC. As a matter of fact, I discourage members from watching CNBC during trading hours.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    News, by definition, is a report on past action. Therefore, the markets have already priced in what the “news” is reporting.

    Also, anything you hear from the main-stream media has the bias spun in already. The charts told me at 12K that we were not done going down. The charts now tell me the upside is starting to look promising, at least on a daily to weekly basis.

    Skål!

  • molecool

    Got it – regarding twitter: I dislike 3rd party services and prefer to stick with RSS which is an open standard (just get a better reader). The only service I relented into was disqus because it made everyone's life easier. Thanks for the suggestion but I think ES is good the way it is right now. No twitter, no life chat, just a basic discussion forum for evil speculators.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Gagelle,

    As a learning trader, IMHO, you need to spend time learning the charts themselves, how the $INDU, $NDX, $RUT, $SPX move in relation to themselves. Only once you feel you understand how the market breathes will you be able to determine whether ANY EXTERNAL market determines the action of the major indexes.

    Oil is one of the best examples. Do you remember at the beginning of the decline, how Oil was rocketing higher, and stocks were dropping lower? Remember the headlines that basically said “Oil Up – Stocks Down?” Do you now question if “Oil down – Stocks down” will hold up? You should. Oil traders trade oil. Gold traders trade gold. SOMETIMES these markets have a correlation, and SOMETIMES they do not. As a novice trader, your time can be better spent learning the actions of the markets, rather than trying to determine whether the Yen, Treasuries, Oil, or Gold are “leading or guiding” the market. Watch the markets. Unless of course you trade some of these other instruments.

    One of the worst things you can do is provide yourself with too much information, or information that you do not fully understand. Step back and see what works for you. And be very cautious on the intra-market relationships, as they FREQUENTLY fall in and out of sync.

    Just a thought.

    Skål!

  • stopsarein

    Ok Thanks i will see if i can find a reader that alerts one to post updates.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    We will know when the when the bear market is finally finished when Cramers show is gone. lol

  • etechpartner

    I can't help but think that capitulation won't happen until everyone is so sick they are puking and not wanting to look at stocks anymore. Every step of the way down there have been lots of people saying “great buying opp”. I am guessing as long as people believe that these are great buying opps we will have a larger scale downtrend. It wont be over until everybody is running for the doors.

  • etechpartner

    Thanks for that berk. I would only add that for a given market like SPX for example the availability of 2weeties RL's are a lot of help. They tend to help point out areas of congestion and pivots.

  • TroyMcClureRIP

    Wow, when you jumped on Eric, I thought maybe it was him, but now that I see you jump on this guy, I can tell its you.

    You wake up on the wrong side of the bed or something?

    Chillax.

  • molecool

    Oh, NDX – for some reason I was thinking SPX – LOL :-)

    And yes, that is the rule – the area around the prior 4th wave of smaller degree.

  • molecool

    Leeches need a good bitch slapping every once in a while.

    You're next…

  • molecool

    Exactly right. Once you get a week long rally and people still don't want to buy stocks, then and only then the bottom may be in.

    1+ for someone getting it.

  • molecool

    Yup, ready for a sweet snap back rally. Can't wait to load up on a monster amount of puts. Can you imagine the VIX maybe even close to 30? I know, I know…. one can dream… :-)

  • molecool

    Perish the thought…

  • gagelle

    Thanks fot the helpful comments Berk. I will follow your suggestion about learning the charts themselves.

  • molecool

    “Mole, however does, and when he is adament about it, I sometimes hesitate. “

    Nothing is bullet proof of course. Sometimes that correlation has kept us out of big trouble, and sometimes it kept us out good trades. The trick I think is to understand the underlying market dynamics which for instance will give you an indication of when those correlations break down. Take for instance the TNX – I know understand that the inverse correlation breaks down when the Feds lower interest rates. Also, sometimes the Feds seem to increase the treasuries in circulation and that lowers the yields (but not equities during these days).

    Frankly, this sounds complicated but I think I have developed a good sense of when it works and when not. You basically look at these indicators and when they start being 'soft' you ignore them. When they work, they really work. I have almost never seen the Yen rally and the market with it – happened once or twice and on those days I started to ignore them.

    But the deeper message here is: pick your poison wisely :-)

  • molecool

    Absolutely, the combination of 2sweeties RT levels, fibs, pivots and our wave count seems to work nicely. Of course everyone here has a different way of leveraging these indicators, and that's good. 2sweeties for instance doesn't care about anything else but his RT levels, not surprisingly so. He and many of the traders he works with seem to do very well, which is why we post them here (and will continue to support his work). On a more longer term basis EWT has given us all the map of the general direction – just look at the waves of the past few weeks. It's almost textbook and the only difficulty were the daily whips in between (which is something Berk and I will address going forward).

  • etechpartner

    My personal experience with the whips and stop hunters has been that on the leg down between 846 and 776 Wed – Fri I was stopped out 3 times buying calls. I talked to 2sweeties about this and he mentioned that in this climate its almost useless to set stops in my specific case. So I have started to load up at the RL levels but held back on stops. I know its probably not an ideal choice but knowing that I am only adding at the RL's and not willie-nillie in between helps. Right now I consider 811 and 846 pretty strong resistance so if we get there on Mo I will add more puts. Conversely if we go lower I will start to add calls again little by little at first and then more as we reach lower levels. The process is a bit counter-intuitive at first but seems to work out because of the RL's and sizing. And its less stressful. I dont care as much where the market goes hour by hour – only what to do when it hits an RL. Having said all that, I am still very interested in your concerns, ideas and points for Sunday. BTW – how have you been trading eminis? Assuming my RL experiment worlks out I am interested in the eminis next ( as opposed to options).

  • gagelle

    I read an interesting article about the 73 -74 bear market. The author had photo's of magazine headlines at the point the market had bottomed. Every headline was bearish to an extreme. For example, Time magazine had something like “The days of stock investing are over.” And that was the time to buy. Another idea I like, although I don't know if it works, is John Murphy's statement that he wouldn't consider the bear over until more than 50% of the NYSE stocks are above their 200 day moving averages.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Sweeties's Retracement levels are something that can be easily applied to the chart. And they either work or don't (and it is very obvious when they work and when they don't).

    However, no one is buying RL's or selling RL's They are not dynamic. External markets ARE dynamic and react to the emotions of those trading them. Notice also how I did not mention the RLs as something to not include. Oil, Yen, TNX, Gold. Not RL.

    I hope that makes sense.

    Skål!

  • etechpartner

    Hmmm if I understand your point, your saying that price /vol of the market itself is king. Everything else (Yen, Oil , RL's fibs whatever) plays second fiddle. First and foremost its the markets behavior itself that needs to be looked at. I hope I got that correct. I completely agree. My problem is that I have no frame of reference for the behavior I see during a given day. I am not experienced enough to look at a given action in the market and know, intuitively or empirically, that we are at a pivot. Thats where RL's or Fibs have been helpful. When applied to a given chart – RL's to SPX for example – I have an easier time getting a sense of where we are. They are not a panacea but they sure are a nice helpful hint.

  • gagelle

    Thanks Molecool. Your comments are also helpful–another way to approach an analysis of the market. Reminds me of Emerson's saying: “Each mind has its method,” which is a recognition of the value of individuality. In an age of standardization, especially in education, I find his thinking liberating.

  • minion of the ppt

    Sounds like you are in violent agreement.

  • minion of the ppt

    Oh what do I long for that – the clarity of hindsight :-)
    I did some analysis of approximating volatility back till 1928. If we are to repeat that market (no ppt then) expect several 1987 like spikes, levels of vola above 50 for a whole quarter… Long-term volatility has begun to pick up and I doubt it to fall back immediately. 1970s in comparison were a piece of cake. Other TA also shows the choppy market today only resembles the 30ies and nothing in between.

  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    Well said, and here's why.

    You not only made the directional call, BUT you put the expected time frame (daily to weekly), too.

    Predictions mean absolutely nothing without a specific time expectation. Bulls and bears can say they are correct, but the actual entry/exit levels are all that matters.

  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    Etech,

    People WERE sick and puking on Thursday….zero bull talk. Bullish prognostications just came about after yesterday, at least in the media.

  • Erikd

    molecool my post that i wrote had nothing to do what you had posted or written. you are taking my post personal. I posted it as I think it is the single most thing that keeps a trader from being successful. I had this post in mind last night as i was reflecting on this past week.

  • Erikd

    I use 5 indicators that tell me which way the market is heading. There never will be one indicator that will tell you which direction we are going. I use these 5 indicators on a daily basis that tell me when the market is going to move. any one of them can be the leader on any given day that will tell you very early the next move. you can position your self to take advantage of most of these moves a lot earlier then when the herd jumps in. the average successful trader only takes advantage of only 50% of any move because they are complacent with their successful system. learning the correlation of these 5 indicators will make any traders system more efficient then what they already have. but like life most of us get complacent way to early and settle and will never give themselves the chance to see what they could grow to. some people develop a system that is like a minivan, I like driving a hotrod during market hours. just my view, what is yours?

  • Erikd

    you really do have a crystal veiw/ball. you are the man.

  • Erikd

    ditto and indicators give you the clues ahead of the herd.

  • Erikd

    Its the German heritage that gets in the way sometimes :)

  • de3600

    Oh come on you need some comedy.They love to play up the drama.Wall street in peril/market on the brink. Maria Bartiromo with here comments during any plunge”as the market condtions continue to deteriote” Charile with what i got or what do i have.You never have to go to a circus they have 3 rings going 5 days a week.

  • de3600

    If I remember in 99 oil was trading at 9 dollars a barrel and home heating oil cost me 60 cents a gallon when I bought my house

  • etechpartner

    Erik r u German also?

  • etechpartner

    Yes I think people were getting a bit scared. Although a lot of the info I read seems to point to further declines. 600's were not totally out of the question. So I only wonder how fast and violently we get there. As far as I know the entire world has never been so connected and never reached a bear market so fast.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Apologies if this is a repost…it didn't show up and I wanted to take a crack at offering some TA…

    There is a ton of “noise” out there from the media and so forth. So here is my analysis of what I have going on and the market.
    My current position…

    http://screencast.com/t/BtpBCtnI1za

    I MUST learn to hold options longer than overnight. This next link is why…it’s what would’ve happened had I held them until Wed of O/E week.

    http://screencast.com/t/GzJbQHEh6oP

    My take on the SPX…

    http://screencast.com/t/ImCO9eZi

    My attempt at the $CPC which contradicts the assertion from the MACD on SPX that any such rally could have strength…

    http://screencast.com/t/FObsN1wseJB

    And finally a look at the TED spread…

    http://screencast.com/t/2TuJxAIJwup

    So that’s my take. No news inputs at all…just straight TA. Make your own decision where you think the market is going. Listen to others, but form your own opinion.

  • malusDiaz

    In your technical opinion, would you buy s&p 500 shares right now with your 401k? (Notice i'm NOT asking for advice!)

    And what % would you buy in at if you were to? (Coming from 95%+ cash)

    (All Comments Appreciated)

  • etechpartner

    Thats a good question. As we get lower there are certainly some bargains around. I have been thinking about this as well. Probably many of the regulars have. As for me, I am not necessarily going to pick a stock because its in the SP500 – unless your talking about buying an index fund that mirrors the SP500. Personally, I think there are some good deals on growth companies like for example Salesforce.com. Depending on the time frame your planning around, certain Chinese companies (dont know which yet) may also be good choices. Accounting irregularities aside, China has a huge economic engine. Someone said that its development curve is akin to the industrialization of the US after 1908. Think about the growth we had during the last 100 years. China is just starting this growth in the last 15 years. So if I took a longer term view, I would also hunt for some bargains over there. But there is no great rush to jump on that bandwagon just yet. Also, I have only recently started to look in that direction – based on the notion that when this is all over the US msy no longer be the predominant force in the world ( as per the Intelligence Report issued recently). Things will probably work out differently but heck its a good idea to have some plans.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    Test…my comments have not been posting. Hmmm…

  • malusDiaz

    Very limited 401k trading ability, around 20 funds to pick from. 1 is treasury bonds , another is mirrored s&p 500, some 'selected' index funds(+?), and “blends”; not really a trading platform.

    With a lot listening & learning, (thank you! for this site), i pulled everything out and went cash back in march. Saved me 20-30%?+ of my portfolio!

    Again, thank you berk & mole, i'd be a poorer today if you hadn't helped me to learn.

    3 Cheers to the Stainless Steal Rats!

  • etechpartner

    I bought some SPY puts on Fri at 3:58PM . And I had been holding two OIH calls that are now have 30% profit. Depending on Mondays tape I may sell the calls one at a time and increase the Puts. The plan is to add Puts as we breach resistance levels, I,e 811 / 842 . I have some doubts about the strength of the Fri bounce. All things being equal I am thinking it will fade on Mo. On a weekly timeframe I don't think we have a good resolution to Paulson just walking off the job. The lows we saw were a direct result of that. I haven't seen anything that changes that equation. Part of me thinks that we will revisit those lows and very possibly breach them at which point our dear Congress in a knee jerk reaction will either bail someone out (like Detroit ) or give money to Sheila Bear. They will act simply because they will be scared witless. Whatever they do, it may provide a short term psychological relieve which could well spark a rally. How big or small that reaction will be is anybody's guess. After that at some point next year we will see another swing to the lows. But thats too far off to even consider at the moment. There you go…. that my story. In any case it may not work out like that but it seems a plausible scenario.

  • molecool

    Hey, watch it!

  • etechpartner

    Fantastic! Congratulations that is one of the best moves I have heard about in a while. Good job. Given the parameters you listed, I suppose the SP500 mirror is a good choice. The fact that its not a trading platform prob saved you some money.

  • old_lefty

    It all depends on time frame and whether you are thinking of trading or investing. While we are near a near term bottom and looking for a retracement of wave 3 in a wave 4, we will be falling again in a few months for wave 5. At the end of wave 5 we are looking for a 50% to 68% retracement of the fall from Oct 2007. That would be a move worth catching, but not as a long term investment, but a trade. 12 to 18 months from now we will again be lower that we are now. Don't forget you can always be in inverse funds in an IRA to play the market down. My IRA has grown substantially since the peak in Oct 2007.

  • molecool

    I think in the end it might wind up being worse than the 30s – system is bigger today. More people on the planet, we're running out of resources (raw materials, energy), sweet water. You do the math.

  • riffraff

    Ukla — thanks for good analysis…a question…do you consider using SSO instead of SPY, or does the volatility level on SSO make it relatively too expensive as an option? Thaks for any input to this newbie. riffraff

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I've never traded SSO, but I do like it since the options are liquid and there's a tight bid/ask spread. A lot of ultras and ultrashorts are too volatile unfortunately and, thus, are untradable by my standards (low OI/options volume and especially a mega-wide bid/ask spread). The ones that I'm seriously looking into working with are SSO, QLD, and UYG. Other than those three, I haven't found any that are worth trading IMHO. Others no doubt will feel otherwise.

  • old_lefty

    Spot on! Anyone on here may have a system that works well for them, but may not fit with your personality and style and wouldn't be successful for you. You need to develop a system that works for you and one you are comfortable with.

  • molecool

    Berk and I have been starting to play with the eminis the past week. So far with very favorable results, but we have been using our own indicator (the one I mentioned on Friday). Next week I plan to start trading the eminis in combination with the RTs as well.

    In that context – today 2sweeties added Gold RTs and since I'm the resident Gold bug I jumped on it. Here's Friday's chart with the Gold short RTs added:

    http://screencast.com/t/17H5sxUrj

    You can see that it stopped right at the first one, but then swung around and breached, punched through the 2nd, and then stopped at the 3rd. Now, not having this indicator on Friday yet I got in relatively close to the top, as indicated on the chart. The plan is pretty simple for me going forward. Get in at the RT level, give it about 4 points or so and then get out – wait for the next one. If it swings around after you already got out (ahead of the next RT) get back in. I think the trick is in being completely mechanical about it – you set your rules and simply trade it.

    Of course from my personal prospective I will still look at the market as a whole in terms of Elliott waves. The combination of both methodologies could turn out a pretty powerful system. Will keep you guys posted.

  • molecool

    Regarding the TED spread. Yes, it's been easing back but 'd like to see the spread move back down to 1.0 or lower. A normal spread is around 0.5.

  • Ukla the Mokk

    I think Obama's pick for the next SecTreas was the catalyst that may have this rally going for more than a few days.  But when the market suddenly realizes that these problems are not fixed easily or quickly, we'll tank again huge.  This is, IMHO, the beginning of a decent rally (e.g. a week or so) the end of which may be the last big opportunity to ride the wave down.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    GDX gapped up on FRI huge—anyone ever try to short a gap up like that? I'll wager you lost every time.

  • stopsarein

    Hey,

    I have found the SSO / SDS good . Ignore the price action out of hours though.

  • Erikd

    father and mothers mother from Germany

  • lazydogbkk
  • http://www.itrade4real.com itrade4real

    I agree entirely. I don't think the bear is near done, but that does not
    mean we go straight to 450. Likewise, a rally here is not guaranteed,
    either. Best to stay flexible to both possibilities, as the volatility
    remains high, and great moves can be traded both ways. Friday was just as
    great for the longs, as Thursday was for shorts, but if one held through
    both days (long or short) they got nowhere, or even lost, depending on
    timing. No sense in an opinion, IMO!

  • C.C. Rider

    Leechy heaven!! Two percent RALLY Monday, and Black Friday(shopping), Black Tuesday(stocks) await. Lump of coal this year for you my fellow leeches.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/texana44/folder

  • molecool

    Excellent post and it reflects many of the thoughts I have shared in the past months. The notion of a Dubai Gold market in response to ranking crude is intriguing.

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Berk
    How long have you been analyzing charts?(Total)

  • T.B. Aurelius

    Hello everyone…
    lets have some straight talk here…
    Trading to me is in the moment….Not about the past, and not looking into the future either…
    If I am faithfully in the present moment with all the focus and alertness, future direction does show up in a form of intention…
    But if I abandon the present focus and shift my attention to the future because of that glimpse, it is a matter time that I am completely lost…
    When I am in the moment, I do not predict anything but can only suggest where the arrow is pointing to.
    So, if

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I run around 50/50…

    That was in my “younger years” though.

    Skål!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Just turned two my friend…

    Skål!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I'm in the same boat as you.

  • gagelle

    I really like your chart and web site Moontrader.

  • gagelle

    Does enyone remember a chart that Molecool posted that showed drydock shipping at a standstill because they couldn't get letters of credit?

  • http://www.for-really.blogspot.com Jana

    Are you talking about the Baltic Dry Index? $BDI?

  • lazydogbkk
  • gagelle

    Yes , that's it. Thanks Jana.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Hey Ukla, yes, things seem to be getting closer and closer to a climax, accelerating downward. Let's see what happens Monday morning. At this very moment, I feel that something related to Citi could trigger the sell-off.

  • http://moontrader.wordpress.com/ Moontrader

    Thanks! 😉

  • gagelle

    According to some articles I read, many of the dry shippers will be going out of business. Unfortunately, many seem too low already to short.

  • gagelle

    I like the chart on DSX. Looks like it was too weak to keep up with the rally on Friday.

  • http://www.myspace.com/181419967 JZT_CHIL

    The Dow was around 3700 as recently as 1994 – and that’s about half of Thursday's close…

  • T.B. Aurelius

    For two year old…..you are very mature….IMV
    in it's depth, not in Qtty.can't care less for Qtty…..

  • molecool

    LOL – was it actually showing a docked ship on that chart? 😉

  • gagelle

    Yes, I think so.

  • http://z-stock.blogspot.com/ zstock

    hey berk–
    50/50 huh, I'm at 90% lost–
    I like your odds better–, cause I'm net 60% short— I'm thinking Monday will be up then down then up–roller coaster–

  • gagelle

    One of the most interesting things I've read in a long time. Thanks, lazydogbkk.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Globex is now open. Dow up 63.00 s&p up 9.00

  • minion of the ppt

    620 is on the retracement calcs and here on the long-term chart: http://premium.fileden.com/premium/2006/9/9/209

    Should be low enough to kick off a decent rally. 750 won't do the trick.

  • gagelle

    Comic relief: check this out–very funny.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4j3w1QfV35I&eurl

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    lol lol lol lol welcome to the bear market

  • Growler

    This is very same reason I take my money home with me every night.
    Point Up

  • lazydogbkk

    i just caught the snl cspan skit of the bailout. The uncensored torrent is here if you have yet to see it
    http://thepiratebay.org/torrent/4433889/SNL_Ban
    funny as can be…

  • etechpartner

    Sehr gut.
    In that case you are genetically predisposed to handle all the Germans on the blog :-)

  • etechpartner

    Oh I love a good bear market rally as much as the next guy ( which is why I got 2 OIH calls in my back pocket at the moment )

  • etechpartner

    I got so burned by the futures a few weeks ago when they were up humongously and the market all but yawned and actually went the other way a little. Not saying that I dont like the post…. just thinking to myself ” careful out there “

  • sibekp

    Futures have definitely been tricky. What is the website you use to track futures? BTW. Citi is in serious rescue talks with the government…

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    i turn it to bloomberg tv. its part of my cable tv :0) just follow the ticker tape.

  • sibekp

    :) that works too… thanks

  • MaxPainMan

    gov't rescue of C good/bad for the market?

  • Ukla the Mokk

    If Monday turns out to be an up day (and I think it will), here looks like a nice long candidate that I stumbled upon in an old list on my WBT TOS account…

    JNJ – http://screencast.com/t/MNljgQRD8eF

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well looks like feds are going to bail out citi

    http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/11/24/business

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Hey Mole and Berk , Can we form a company and if we fails just have the feds bail us out. Seemsthat we have no risk.

  • gagelle

    Can't seem to play this. Can you recommend an MP4 player? I'm running Vista.

  • gagelle

    Looks like Globex is starting to lose some traction. But still too early to tell.

  • gagelle

    I noticed the futures don't always work as a good predictor of the market's direction.

  • ZigZag

    All of the my zigzag patterns should hit their targets this week..IF the bulltards decide to chop the market higher, I would look to the 55 SMA as a good area to short again.

    http://tinyurl.com/5qhp2g

    http://www.ttheory.com/
    Basically in the milder 1973-74 decline recoveries halted at the 55 day MA like we see in August 08. In the more severe 1929-32 decline the 55 day MA was falling more steeply and the recovery would generally pop just above the 55 day MA by a percent or so. So for this bear market I think a general rule of thumb is any current recovery is likely to peak at or just above the 55 day MA come December.

  • molecool

    CLEAN CUPS (better late than never)

  • gagelle

    I would never have anticipated that we would be referring to the 73-74 bear as something milder than what we're in now. I was suffering from the false belief that the Fed and modern economics would be able to prevent another crash as severe as the great depression.

  • molecool

    In recent history the impact of interventionals has been dropping rapidly. I'd be surprised to see a rally lasting more than a few hours actually.

  • molecool

    Very interesting link ZigZag – I'll keep an eye on the 55 Day MA in the coming weeks.

  • minion of the ppt

    The Fed and faulty economics will cause a crash greater then the great depression.

  • etechpartner

    Erik I was totally blown away how you called the top today (11/24) and from what I remember the bottom a few days ago as well. Could you point me in the right direction of how to do this? I will worship the ground you walk upon. Seriously. And that's hard to say as a German – believe me. But as you know, we always strive to learn and improve ourselves. And after loosing 15% of my stake this summer I swore that I would work diligently to improve before taking bigger stakes in trades.

  • etechpartner

    Erik I was totally blown away how you called the top today (11/24) and from what I remember the bottom a few days ago as well. Could you point me in the right direction of how to do this? I will worship the ground you walk upon. Seriously. And that's hard to say as a German – believe me. But as you know, we always strive to learn and improve ourselves. And after loosing 15% of my stake this summer I swore that I would work diligently to improve before taking bigger stakes in trades. Feel free to email if you want to take the conversation offline – etechpartner at yahoo dot com