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Commodities Love You!
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Commodities Love You!

by The MoleOctober 18, 2011

Well, not really – but in a pinch there’s always Richard Simmons!

Warm fuzzy feelings aside there are however a bunch of very huggable commodity setups on my plate today. The leeches get one free (here’s too you Wimpy-Gerbil) and the rest are for the subs:

Crude has been going strong today after hitting an hourly NLBL – that’s the way we like it. Now there’s no sense in chasing this move up and what we’re mostly interested in is that cluster of resistance looming right ahead. So taking out a short position near the 90 mark with a stop slightly above those two SMAs may just be good medicine.
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What else is new – copper of course, which just hit some daily resistance and was painting an inside candle on the hourly a mere 20 minutes ago. In the meantime we already dipped and pushed back up up – so our game is to watch for a breach of today’s highs which will hopefully lead us higher above that 25-day SMA. I only see air above that one until the 3.9 mark.

Let’s sweeten things up a little. Sugar just bounced back from an hourly NLBL (and since I took this snapshot we dropped to 27.66). If we breach that hourly NLSL and the lower BB line at 27.42 then down we go and probably toward 26.4. If we push above the NLBL then I have 29 in my sights. This is one sweet setup IMNSHO but bear in mind that the dynamics will be less clear once we retire those hourly net-lines. Timing, after all, is everything – n’est-ce-pas?

Corn is basically where I would like crude to be. It’s attempting to breach the 25-day SMA and once it does odds are we are going to 690.

Soybean looked pretty bearish this morning but has almost retraced all of today’s downside. Again, once it pushes above that 25-day SMA it may be good for a push into 1330. Are you starting to see a pattern here? Everything appears to be in alignment – which again ties into my ‘vertical & horizontal inflection points’ theory.

And almost as to prove my point here’s the USD/CHF (alright, I admit – not a major FX pair) sitting at the 25-day SMA. It failed its first attempt to crawl above that NLBL (0.9038) and is currently sitting at support near the 25-hour SMA (left panel). The hourly NLBL is at 0.9047, just a few ticks away from the daily NLBL. So, you already know what I’m thinking, right? First it needs to overcome the hourly NLSL at 0.9007 – that is strike one – add one position and set a stop below the 25-hour SMA. Then it needs to breach the daily NLBL at 0.9038 – that’s strike two – add another position and set your stop to 0.9007. Finally, we need to push above 0.9047, the hourly NLBL and that would be strike three. You can keep your positions and your stop as they are or pyramid a bit higher here.

Of course none of that happens if we push below that 25-hour SMA and don’t lift higher by the EOD. And in that case you can set a stop above the 0.9007 NLSL and stay short with expectations of taking profits at T1 (0.8955) or at T2 (0.8889).

How’s that for covering all angles?

Have fun and keep it frosty!
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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tronacate

    I’m short Rimm and DECK……..got a great ride out of FSLR and wanted to reshort on the spike today but hard to borrow through TS now……so bought some lottery ticket puts

  • Tronacate

    Missed GMCR….damn

  • Anonymous

    Lookmlike the big guys wanting to take this to fridays top tick

  • Anonymous

    Will make for a nice pattern if it plays out here, stop at SPX 1220.5.

  • Anonymous

    Nice setups Mole, going to study them hard.  

    Am holding my hold but bringing stop up again to 11,498.  Guys watch the EURUSD, if it can’t get it done here at 1.3750 we likely go down for another attempt.  

  • Tronacate

    EURUSD keeps riding up the lower TL……….should see a break lower right here

  • Tronacate

    Need to take out 1.37216 ish

  • Anonymous

    Was thinking of the same

  • Tronacate

    See if the ZL divergence holds this time

  • Tronacate

    DECK total non-participant….all coiled……

  • Anonymous

    Taken out for another 38 points profit.  Not sure we are done going higher, think its just taking a breather. Going long again 11,492. Prepared to give up some of last profits so setting stop 11,460.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, if you haven’t laughed hard today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCJkuXSTymk

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CC is kicking ass and taking numbers today. That’s the way we like you mate – to the point and profitable! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tronacate – it’s a trend day – the inverse of yesterday. Which means small divergences like this are to be taken with a grain of salt.

  • Anonymous

    will be a good one if it does.
    earlier one (just past 10 pdt) was only good for a quick drop under 0

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    smoking after jet skiing – the crowd went nuts.

  • Anonymous

    Zero gone mildly negative, buts its only a small pullback thus far.  I’m betting its like the 10.25am scenario and it quickly goes positive again and we push to new highs for the day.  Eur is looking a tad weak but I think we get 1 more shot at 1.3750 which should coincide with new equity highs for the day.  

  • Anonymous

    Scary how the SPX daily and the ES 5 min on Zero are identical!

  • Anonymous

    Meant 1hr SPX

  • Tronacate

    Point taken……and noted

  • Anonymous

    Zero just pointed back up, if this is a repeat of 10.30 we explode soon.   

  • Anonymous

    Euro is going to try it soon, this could be EPIC.

  • Anonymous

    KABOOM!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, the whole affair gave me an idea – I just sent out an email to everyone.

  • Anonymous

    Did i not mention to keep an eye on eurusd 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Any ideas where this stops guys?

  • Anonymous

    Um have you read the 50 times I said it today too 🙂

  • Anonymous

    OMG….LMAO!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Mole zero question.  Whats the policy if we bust over the red dotted lines like that.  I’m not around long enough to have experienced it before?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is VERY bullish. Rarely happens – you basically don’t want to be short.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I had tears in my eyes…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That show was always awesome – is it still on?

  • Anonymous

    Folks the last time the zero went this positive on the longer term one was tuesday 4th!!!

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Better than Friday the 13th…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, Richard Simmons does! 🙂

  • Anonymous

    OH MY GOD THIS MAKES UP FOR YESTERDAY AND SOME

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We all love you Señor Cabrera!

  • Anonymous

    That was some funny shit!!! thanks 4 posting….btw saw the pos div in zero this am….just cashed out some sweet call options at 122.5….bot at 119.8

  • Anonymous

    WTF just happen?

  • Anonymous

    Don’t know what did it, but Kaboom is the only adjective I can think of.  Spot on 3pm.  Funny that.

  • Anonymous

     I just did not like everyone worrying about 1190. boo..

  • Anonymous

    wow. incredible bullshit going on in this market, day after day. somehow, i am still surprised by these moves. 20 or so ES points in 10+ minutes. wow.

  • Anonymous

    Folks, im just planning ahead, should i swith longs to shorts before end-of-day

  • Anonymous

    lads in all seriousness, the way politicians are fucking with people with these “there wont be a solution”/”there will be a solution” bullshit statements is fucking egregious.  I’m on the right side of it today but I could just as easily have been on the other.  

    In other news, apparently there is a rescue fund.  The Euro is going back to 1.39 and I think Mole sees his 1250 in short order.

  • Anonymous

    Holy S#@*! Geuss so!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Read the email I just sent out. Scott nailed it back then – as a trader you can make your month’s earnings on a day like this. And if you think this has anything to do with rumors then you are sadly mistaken.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s why we watch the Zero, mate. All these games can be insanely profitable if you are able to read the tea leafs.

  • Anonymous

    LOOL at the zero!!!

  • Anonymous

    Still waiting for the mail. Oh well, it’s old news now I guess.

  • Anonymous

    I’m talking about Mike Myers dude 😀

  • Anonymous

    Got to love that rumors issued by ‘EU sources’ send markets flying but statements by Merkel and Schauble are ignored. Fantastic efficiency.

  • Anonymous

    aww i love you guys more..

  • Anonymous

    That sure as hell turned the ADX which I was waiting to see! Damn!

  • Anonymous

    ok lets get back to work gentlemen..

  • Anonymous

    were there rumors? this was(is) a short squeeze. not quite ordinary, since the bears are very verrry quick to cover today.

  • Anonymous

    Ok lads back to reality.  Bringing my stop up to 11,550.  Don’t want it to give it all back but don’t want it too close either cos there was a big pullback on tuesday 4th too of 60 or 70 points or so before we busted higher again.  

  • omelette

    as of now still have yet to get over the not insignificant resistance:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p86721923288&a=173967768

  • Anonymous

    Apparently France and Germany now agree on bailout fund.  Whatever that means.

  • Anonymous

    That was a beauty of a short entry if you ask me

  • Anonymous

    end of qtr mutual fund distribution? while hedging with cheap puts?

  • Anonymous

    Could of very well been w5. Kinda looks exhaustive to me. Just a thought.

  • Tronacate

    120000 plus contracts on the high 5 min bar

  • Anonymous

    Hell ya, who would have known? Just the way they like it!

  • Anonymous

    i am short from just off the top (spxu 15.5)
    Will set stop at b/e as these can strike back you like a pet King Cobra
    Whether to close today, or let run o/n is an dilemma i have 25 mins to resolve

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    FAS – what a spike.  almost speechless.
    my bull friend wants to rip me a new windpipe.
    oh well, didn’t need that friend.
    😉

  • Hinkognito

    Looks like retest variation sell on daily /es setting up?

  • Anonymous

    Ok I’m shifting into a more medium term stance here.  Pulling back my stop.  My bet is 1220 becomes support now.  Will not get out of longs unless that is broken (even though I’m trading Dow it’s that level I’m watching).   Target 1,250 then 1,280.

  • Anonymous

    hahahahaha

  • Anonymous

    looks like 1240 imo…

  • Anonymous

    Just food for thought…..Mole’s roadmap looks to be unfolding….1250-1260? down next week then santa claus madness?   hmmmm Momma gonna love those new shoes!!!!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    no.  

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drew_Carey's_Improv-A-Ganza

    On August 25, Drew Carey posted on his Twitter account that GSN would not be ordering any more episodes of Improv-A-Ganza, and so it was effectively cancelled.[3] However, Drew owns the rights to the show so it is possible that it could be picked up by another network.

  • Anonymous

    yea I would say if you were long awesome. this “scary” movie has a high probability of touching 1210. which will be a good spot to reload again.But Im just saying it may not look back anymore and we switch to high octane action movie will our hero hit 1230 and so forth.

  • Anonymous

    Not to question what you say, Oh Holy One 🙂
    BUt whats to stop us doing a range check back to 1100spx
    I suppose the recent price action changes the probabilities more to the long side, rather than that

  • Anonymous

    Went short on that spike too. I am not regretting so far

  • Anonymous

    Senior EU officials admit that technical details remain to be settled. Some of these will be agreed by finance ministers who meet on Saturday, while others will await final agreement in the run-up to the G20 summit in Cannes. “It’s a huge agenda,” senior officials said of the plan of work for the summit. “But there will be a number of breakthroughs.”They added: “We thought the [Greek] package of 21 July was a big step, but obviously it was not enough and now we’re pretty confident that markets will say that these people really mean what they say and will ensure stability.

    reading btwn the lines

  • Anonymous

    sorry….what do you mean?

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I thought Week 43 is this week?

  • Anonymous

    Mate, I’ve had a great day today no doubt about it.  But I had a mediocre one yesterday so less of the holy one :).  I just feel that there must have been so much damage done to shorts in the last half hour, there has to be repercussions.  That being said, its a brave man who carries a position overnight these days, as the MM’s will rape stops on both sides.

    We could open up either 100 dow points up or down tomorrow and I havent really got a clue which.  But on balance, this last period favours up.    I’m staying frosty and if we close over 11,600 or at the highs may take some profits.  Overall I favour a long position into tomorrow though.  

    You need to decide for yourself.  

  • tradingmom

    5 min zero has a bit of a megaphone thingy going on — top trendline connects the peaks at 9, 10, and 12.  Bottom connects the 10:30, 11:30, 12:30 lows.

  • Hinkognito

    one of the amazing contributors here, ConvictScott, shared one of his setups.  Search for “retest variation” on this site for more details.  For a sell signal, its a higher high, lower close, then higher close.  have a look.

  • Anonymous

    WTF! Halarious you are!

  • Anonymous

    Thanks CC
    Yes, must make own decisions – out of short for small profit!
    Lets see where we get to near eod

  • Anonymous

    We are at another maginot line here guys.  Another few points and I reckon a lot of the people who tried to pick the top of this (and undoubtedly missed) will have to cover as well.  We could accelerate into the close.

  • Anonymous

    IF SPX closes above 1,233, I think 1,250 is guaranteed this week.  Mole, good call yesterday.  With the market breaking down I thought that was a bold call but it doesn’t seem stupid now.

  • Anonymous

    next week

  • Anonymous

    new post!

  • Anonymous

    1250? Without retracement first?

  • Anonymous

    Took another short on that poke!

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, I will amaze ya alright… its also a bearish non-comformation with SPX… see my post above

  • Anonymous

    me too (might regret it though!)

  • Tronacate

    My motto for the day…….never panic in a news driven short squeeze…….added on and sitting pretty