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Confirmation Bias
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Confirmation Bias

by The MoleDecember 5, 2017

When equities turns volatile each added gyration serves to stir the collective emotional cesspool of market participants. An unfortunate cognitive bias we as human beings all share is that we tend to see mostly what we want to see, facts, evidence, or reason be damned. Also known as ‘confirmation bias’ this factory installed feature of the human condition seems to particularly live up to its promise when it comes to the trading racket. Throw in a few wild swings and the bulls will regard each drive lower as an obvious dip buying opportunity while the bears see it as clear confirmation that the prevailing trend is weakening.

2017-12-05_spoos_WTF

The two exceptions are on hand the market makers, who frankly only care about extracting a narrow but consistent edge somewhere between the two camps and are otherwise concerned with keeping liquidity flowing. And then there is the growing legion of trading bots which intentionally infuse volatility in order to lure mainly human traders into making bad decisions. Which judging by their quarterly revenue reports seems to be paying off in spades and then some. In some respect they are not really trading the market per se, they are trading based on your emotions. How does that make you feel? 😉

So if you look at the E-Mini chart above and have little doubt as to where it’ll swing next, well then you may want to think again. We’ve seen many shake outs like these over the years and they seem to concentrate especially around periods right before major futures contracts roll over. And unless you know what you’re doing it’s best you hide or get out of the way. Also remember that next week is statistically speaking the second most bearish of the year (as reported yesterday) and given the roll over date I’m pretty sure that’s no coincidence.

2017-12-05_ZB

Here we have another example, the 30-year bond futures. Which in my mind is a pretty bullish looking contract but where confirmation bias may reign especially high is not so much on the price but time dimension. Bonds have been coiling up for the better part of this entire year now. We caught a few spikes higher but reversals continued to limit our profit potential in this sector. Which most likely now is what leads us to expect more of the same. We see a sideways market, and after a few campaigns have internalized that bonds will remain in a sideways pattern. Once again volatility, but this time in small extended doses, is what conditions us to see what we already know – a range bound market without much of an edge.

However what are the odds that bonds will forever be range bound? It’s quite easy to make a case for the inverted H&S pattern on the daily panel (left) to resolve upward sometime next year. But how do we know for sure? Well we never really do unfortunately. Nobody ever has been able to solve that puzzle and believe me, a lot of people smarter than you and I have tried.

What seems to work for me is to work myself upward from the hourly to the daily to the weekly panel. I first look at the overall trend and then assess the odds of various scenarios based on my particular lens. Then I look for signs of movement that may shift the balance near what I have determined to be inflection points. Working myself upward this way allows me to often catch lucrative entries early without betting the farm on the ‘big one’ which obviously only comes around once or twice in a generation.

And that’s really what we do here at Evil Speculator on a daily basis. We look for synergy across various time dimensions and then find exposure where we see an opportunity for price equilibrium to be disrupted. That process of course involves technical evidence in the form of price patterns, statistical evidence, and various momentum measures or other market meta data we have identified to be useful over the years. And of course many times it just pays to stop thinking too much and simply follow the trend.

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Synergy, oh yeah.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHg_M_zKA6Y (2:25 marker)

  • ridingwaves

    SNAP filling the GAP

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s got breakout written on it.

  • HD

    $GC_F got the $(34) hit. buyers may defend.

  • ridingwaves

    17 is my target…i might take some profit here, hold the rest

  • Mark Shinnick

    I don’t see much edge for the longside.

  • HD

    really? Perhaps I have ‘confirmation bias’ :-) but 3 months of accumulation looking left.

  • ridingwaves

    me thinks the mm’s are going to pound the precious on fed rate raise….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Those $ headwinds exist, while this price discovery concentration has gone on for a long while and here we finally have some rollover motion.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m aware that the Zero is down. My VPS firm fucked up and I’m launching it locally to bridge you guys over.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • BobbyLow

    “However what are the odds that bonds will forever be range bound?”

    I would say 0. Bonds as well as commodities such as Oil and Gold seem to have limits as to how far they will go up or down. There is a built in logic to this that says when Oil went down to $15 per barrell in the late 90’s that it wasn’t going to end up being free. And when Oil reached $140 per barrell in 2008, it reached a breaking point where increased supply and reduced demand took care of this kind of price gouging. The same can be said for Gold but for different reasons, I’ve seen Gold prices of around $300 in 1998 and above $1,900 in 2011.

    I believe that things like Oil and Gold have minds of their own and can develop their own kind of boom/bust scenario. However, the price of Oil was around $37 in 2009 and the price of Gold in 2009 was around $1,008. The closing price on the DOW on March 9th 2009 was 6,547. It just printed 24,272 which is almost 4 times from the 2009 Low.

    So what’s the point? What I’m trying to say is that with oil and gold there are supply/demand and fear issues as well as dollar valuation issues that make these things a more viable trade for me. With the equity markets you have institutions sitting on free money with no other place to put it. Is the equity market in a bubble? Probably. But as the old saying goes, “the markets can stay irrational a hell of a lot longer than most can stay solvent betting against it”. In the mean time, my charting system works for oil and gold and sucks for equities. I’ve tried to make it work many, many times and failed and I really can’t pin point the reason why. So in the mean time, I’ll stick with what I know and accept what I don’t know.

  • Darrell Osgood
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, it’s back up. I had to re-create everything from scratch as my local TOS installation was hosed. Injury to insult and such…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    As retired professional trader once told me, “the [referring to equity] game is rigged…but on the long run it is rigged to the upside”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Loser-of-the-Day with -10%
    [EIX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68215581562

    gap fill! he he.
    10 months wiped out in a single day. headshot.
    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Re: Rates, I have this belief that QE results are intended all along to be undermining to the core of capitalism and quality of life; an application of Lenin’s idea that the Capitalists will supply the rope by which they will be hanged. I see the issue of flipping 3 generations hooked on lowering rates upside down as too scary to confront and imagine that as something nobody is willing to confront….so the party goes on.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “So in the mean time, I’ll stick with what I know and accept what I don’t know.”

    And that’s really all there is to it.

  • Julie

    $SPX the low 2637 two pts above target posted 2635 yesterday. Hoping for an impulse down but decline intraday was corrective
    JULIE

  • Julie

    GG The recent COT Reports for $GOLD have a bearish bias with the Commercials holding a very large net short position
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    RW…if it were only but a gap fill there wouldn’t be so much dwell near the snap highs?

  • Julie

    Posted I was watching OLED for a long. Today a hammer candle developing just above it’s daily 55 ema and oversold but have not bought yet. Watching 60 min chart. Will inform when I pull the trigger
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, I’m officially having a crap day. How’s my crew?

  • Mark Shinnick

    …as long as you stay healthy :)

  • Julie

    Hi Mole Sorry to hear that remember Chief ” The sun sets only to rise again” Watching and waiting Chief JULIE.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m not into large sized conspiracy theories. Why can’t this be just pure greed and recklessness? Bankers made shitloads of money during the housing boom and were extremely reckless while doing so. IMO, Recklessness and Hubris = Disaster.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m having a decent day boss. I hope the day gets better for you. :)

  • Julie

    SPX Anyone going long on this minor 76% retracement. Goes below 2637.53 we have a horse of a different color Just watching
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, indeed, those precise utterly reliable market mechanisms feeding off the setup.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, and then something else breaks…. grrrr….

    I’ll be fine. It’s been a taxing year to be honest. Looking forward to a week off after Christmas.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Doing my best! Not getting easier though each year.

  • Julie

    In your corner Chief as I am in everyone’s corner on this great blog !
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Mole I am like you Chief I do not trust this market at all ! Sidelines for me. I may go long OLED but not yet. Small position if I do and will watch it at the daily 21 ema if reached
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    don’t forget envy, it hangs out with greed, i think this is why Ackman was punished….but he is a good example of sell it if your not sure….prices can go to zero

  • ridingwaves

    interesting as the days without spikes higher precede the tops in equity…this bull can run another month for sure…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    INTC.
    support failure in my lens.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p03890743210

    gap close? ah – you never always get what you want.
    OTOH, the SOX hasn’t quite hit it’s median yet!
    -GG

  • ridingwaves

    float is huge on symbol…what do you mean by dwell?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    can you blame them?

    ratio below median. nobody wants the ‘yen’.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AUUP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67874146445

  • Julie

    GG INTC I was watching for a bullish close above the horizontal blue dotted line matching the Ichi Cloud baseline (21) at approx. 45.25 but no cigar. Now down to approx. daily 34 ema ; upper cloud boundary.and a lower trend line https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/25fdeabc01706c85b702db31356093a3001114ce427fd12b84df3d62202fd3cd.png Needs a bounce and recovery now. I covered my previous short on the daily 21 ema INTC Daily Chart JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, that’s no simple fast unsustained run for stops….there’s some volume keeping it there.

  • Yoda

    Had better days too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes, price was full of noise, However..

    your MACD histogram was negative the whole time.
    that’s the key IMHO.

  • ridingwaves

    got it….cheers and happy holiday to you and your family…

    ditto to the rest of the rats in moles cellar…..where is that good wine he is hiding…so dark down here

  • ridingwaves
  • Julie

    You are correct GG. MACD 5,34,5 is excellent and another good MACD is 8,13,5 This decline is choppy and full of noise as you say. GG You will like my new journal. Oh Yes INTC also down to upper gap window. Let’s watch this close RADAR ON ! Thanks GG
    JULIE

  • Tomcat

    It may be “hard” to see now, but $GC should be above $1330, $PL above $1000, by end of January. There should be plenty of opportunity to get in even at a lower price than this though as we close the year.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m, like, so blind to that :/ Can you make it a bit easier to see?

  • Julie

    RW INFI the 21 ema still above the 55 ema Looking for a gap fill matching a possible mid channel of a parallel channel drawn. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63a808f5c55c0e252a0fbffcd688315331f10e916b5e02b67b97ba80259d7117.png Also a falling wedge could be developing INFI Daily Chart JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    no gap fill is hurting the symbol, wish it would hit 1.69 and get done with it…..
    biotech is still in a wait and see mode….red headed step child of bull parents

  • Julie

    GLD Oversold and still within a support zone.However the recent COT Reports have a bearish bias with Commercials having a very large net short position. http://www.cotpricecharts.com and click GC JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6e2b7dbe43a3c4041e7dd760d3ac77578b390cafb981db92ac6fe58fa5b362d.png

  • ridingwaves

    SNAP bulls now fleecing late to cover shorts…volume picking up, block trades pushing it higher…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, new volatility ranges seem to support about 2 months of local equity up trend or stability.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SNAP?
    dam, has it been a month already?!?!

    Ya might want to pull out the old fan tool again.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79a9c9dc1ce90953c3b1e72e9aa8c44eb0ab5d31fc034739e271a199297df14c.png

    EDIT: Breakout Baby!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    when Did autozone gap fill? I can’t watch all of it guys!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AZO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p10524756471
    😉

    ok, I’m outta here. Late lunch with Mrs. Gerb.

  • Julie

    SPX down to Ichi Cloud baseline (21) at 2635 Shown SPX 60 min chart Watch for a bounce https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de69b6e3100372967ea14508fb90f5f638cb76f3a310d9945546a8315a9cdbea.png JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    that was trade of the year by far, caught it short and bought some and still have it for way up…but I might need to rethink that….at 500 it was trading 10x earnings….cheap…

  • TS

    AMEN.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its present upside would be a breakout.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Some setups for shorting here…

  • Julie

    SPX 60 min chart went below 2635 N https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61a3e1466e5196c121ea1ff7f251e7e8e72312065ffeb22dd80c7a098f4c4e53.png ow watching 60 min 55 ema and upper cloud boundary Shown SPX 60 min chart JULIE

  • HD

    Amazed people aren’t trusting the tape or that their indicators aren’t quantifying the selling pressure this month. $34 hit SPX now from ATH.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe seeing dreams of wealth in the upside :/

  • HD

    There was VIX 10 this week too if you think at min vol will rise into the roll. Something Mole has presented too.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, vol is what’s indicating to me for the time being; 3+ months of behavior making this model jumpy….usually pretty credible.

  • HD

    I don’t want to debate the efficacy of indicators but yesterday’s new ATH put a -D on every timeframe for the big dog! $INDU

  • HD

    Lets see how this Fibonacci bounce behaves. Some EW will see in strong trend and irregular correction 3-3-5 where B makes new high and C fails. Ie 2657-2606-2665-2630

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its been a very curious time since the end of October.

  • Julie

    $BKX Pullback for the Banks ? Possible. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/40af778e5bf7febeed715b5f890589e5221bc86d85bbe37c52eb2f95542c26f4.png A confirmation a bearish close below the daily 5 ema and blue dotted trend line JULIE

  • HD

    SPX bounces a whopping 4 points and sellers hammer it w volume. That’s the tape I’m seeing.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok.

  • ridingwaves

    I see a tech and biotech sell off now joined by financials..something in that tax bill folks dont like perhaps….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe because is bulllhit for show?

  • Julie

    RW One word Yup !
    JULIE

  • HD

    Buy the rumor sell the news?

    Side note I think the Dems screwed up their message. Should have said – Nobody needs a tax cut w Corp profits at all time high and 4% unemployment and DOW 24,000. That might have been a better case. Jmho

  • Yoda

    Wow a red day. There must be a glitch in the matrix.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s a trap. I’m sure of it.
    ;-D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    efficacy?
    I can’t take you seriously now. Do you have any grey poupon?
    😉

    http://static.adweek.com/adweek.com-prod/files/adfreak/images/2/Grey-Poupon-3.jpg

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Close ya books… how was your day guys?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero signal today leaves me unconvinced, however the price action on the hourly does look pretty damn bearish. So let’s see what happens tomorrow:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1dbafbf4bb695f5d18868858559d3727216f54a4685b4b0395d9a41ec9b65bd.png

  • Julie

    Great Day Chief. Just watching and letting setups come to me. I am flat …. GG no comment ! LOL !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “I do not trust this market at all”

    And neither should you darling!! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He’s such a pervert… LOL

  • Ronebadger

    Yesterday, I was stopped out on a short ETF…my stop was the exact low of the day…dems the breaks … dems also the brakes on that one… :)

  • Wave_surfer

    Is it true that we did not get a VIX buy signal today because when it spiked on Friday, it didn’t _close_ above the Bollinger band even though it spiked high?
    Is it true that we would have a VIX signal today if it had closed above the BB on Friday?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Folks – we’ve got a live one!!! 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    NOT.

    How does a blonde measure her I.Q.? She holds a tire gauge to her ear!

  • Mark Shinnick
  • StockTalker

    Looking for /NKD 22k, /YM 24k respectively.

  • StockTalker

    Witnessed some bearish action last evening, could be time to roll.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, so was I….. but the model said to hit on it again. In nailing the low, maybe that part of your model still had the right design element after all to help improve the model.

  • Tomcat

    Mark, my bad, I meant $1350, high in Sep.

  • ridingwaves

    damn….this market is getting helter skelter like

    SQ and SNAP are being pushed up and down, figure out the turns and you could make some cash
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p9UficlHnQ

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    No post today as I was busy all morning screwing with some installation on my server (in vain). So my brain is fried for today…

  • ridingwaves

    more greed a yr ago?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Admin work only sounds easy, there’s a reason we get paid for it.
    😉
    http://www.cartoonaday.com/images/cartoons/2011/07/two-eggs-talking-sidewealk-fry-598×427.jpg

  • StockTalker

    Looking for fear now, we had extreme greed.

  • ridingwaves

    what about just removing the uni brow baby so my nightmares go away…
    looks like a young Ron Jeremy…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ron who?
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Oh, need a long memory for that one.

  • StockTalker

    Anything but sideways BS.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Touche’

  • ridingwaves

    Scott probably snagged it when he was working with him and Jenna, passed it on to Mole as trading present….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…gotta wonder if that’s the most surprising behavior…maybe don’t scare all the new comers quite yet? …or friggin just let ’em have it? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb1ef9d27b4e8f594e90e184b685c4c263cea50b95a2ce0c1709875b47b4f318.jpg

  • StockTalker

    Lol, nice. Big move in the works, like pigs in mud:)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Very surprised not to see any real buying pressure:)

  • HD

    they’re all trapped long

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that would be sad, if High Yield were to sag more.
    Muwahaha.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p69244544923

  • StockTalker

    Yep, one way ticket to hell. Panic will explode soon.

  • StockTalker

    Long /6a .7564, stop .7550

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I’m sure he peaked, peeked, and piqued more than once :-)

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    YIKES!!

  • StockTalker

    Those are profit taking occurrences, very real.

  • Mark Shinnick

    3 generations of Recency and Confirmation Bias …. What could possibly go wrong?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    here’s hoping the S. California rats and residents stay out of harms way. El Diablo winds reeking havoc down there….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Turns out the best way to really fuck things up is EMP, report to Congress indicates a 90% population killoff.
    https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Baker-Statement-5-13-EMP.pdf

  • Mark Shinnick

    Much calmer compared to yesterday. Diane K’s new house in Brentwood will be OK.

  • ridingwaves

    tomorrow will be blowing hard….La Nina’s seem to bring out the worst in Santana’s

  • StockTalker

    Time to pull the cord, AUD moving up now.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Burn baby burn. Fools in paradise.
    https://weather.com/forecast/regional/news/2017-12-05-california-dry-start-wet-season-wildfires

    Hell hasn’t frozen over, but Phoenix got rain last night for a few minutes.
    Last Measurable rain? August 23rd.

  • Mark Shinnick
  • randomuser6789

    You gotta love BTC. Quick, you should buy it before it goes to $1,000,000. This will not end well. Or I will eat my sarcastic words. But it will probably not end well.

  • Julie
  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet. Its actually being compared to gold; incredible. This is the epitome of virtual reality becoming more real than reality itself.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its what one does with things that get bigger under pressure that counts. :)

  • StockTalker

    Have not been paying attention to BTC, did it rocket up?

  • Mark Shinnick
  • StockTalker

    Damn, looks real close to equity market condition.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.

  • ridingwaves

    I could see a big move up after Sunday futures open up, possibly thru end of year, setting up a big move down on the short side will take a bit of time

  • HD

    $SPX 2632 pivot very important imo.

  • BobbyLow

    Yep it’s amazing. I couldn’t imagine under any circumstances buying BTC.

    However on a much milder note, I remember shorting AAPL when it popped up from $40 to $50 after announcing that it was going to be able to show reruns of the TV show “Desparate Housewives” on their new phones. I thought this was crazy because who in their right mind would enjoy watching a rerun of a TV show on a 2″ Screen? I covered at around $60 for a 10% Loss. And of course AAPL was off to the races to the moon and beyond. So perhaps BTC could be the wave of the future for all I know. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    By then we have CME opportunity.

  • Julie

    May nibble on the Miners at confluence of Lower trend line and Blue horizontal dotted line. Going to watch for positive divergences 30 min and or 60 min charts JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9abbf71388e1c516b0c4b5a1a3f4549ca2a95c8163851181c3fcef43fea90a91.png

  • BobbyLow

    Gold floundering and Oil Tanking – we’re a long way from the close but not too shabby. :)

  • Julie

    HD I had 2635 yesterday as a level to watch
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be; recent generations have no concern about privacy and blockchain records every friggin transaction; government despot dream come true.

  • Julie

    BL Vertical rise coupled with euphoria not a time to buy ! Yipes ! The short IMO is a substantial gap down then a bounce to a lower high, I have researched this movement and usually that is how they end. Just wait like a “Cougar” ready to pounce
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Getting spanked!

  • Julie

    GG Yup Bro ! (1) 55 ema (2) Lower Bol band (3) Horizontal support (4) Lower uptrend line and oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a44d252b0e1c688b5d539cf530e63f02d3e8c226e8638185b74e32dbc57603bf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    RSI 49. always a place to provide surprise support.

  • Julie

    GG The tip off for the decline negative divergences RSI and MACD at the upper Bol band
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    Julie, that was a lot of years ago when I shorted AAPL and back then I didn’t use charts. What I used was a little common sense and too much emotion in my trading decisions. Needless to say this method was wrong. Emotion is an account killer and there’s nothing “common” about common sense in the stock market.

    You and I have different methods of trading and that’s OK with neither one being right or wrong. My method is simple for the simple minded :) I try to catch momentum after a move has begun and I don’t get out of a move until after momentum has stopped. I prefer the center cut of a move. I only use two things to read the tape and that’s Simple BB’s and ATR. I’ve tried many other things but have always come back to these two things.

    There are many different ways of reading a tape and the types of lenses that have a verifable edge can vary widely from reader to reader.

  • Julie

    RW EXAS possible bounce here (1) 55 ema (2) Gap support (3) Lower channel …… MACD centerline test and oversold JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6266d923beb86dfa4e27f968565a62201ecd4495fe491415aa1269a5d312b561.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    That bio H+S downside still in prospect.

  • BobbyLow

    Maybe so. But one of the things about support and resistance levels is that they work until they don’t. And if /CL breaks and holds $58, I would consider flipping to the long side but not until then.

    Now for anecdotal bullshit, in the days prior to the OPEC meeting on November 30th, talk began at about the first week in October that OPEC’s goal was about keeping production at current levels for a few more months to reach and maintain a target price of $60. From that first week of October on, Oil prices rose by over $8.00 per barrel until it tagged $59.05 on November 24th. Since then, price has dropped back to a $56 handle at this moment.

    So does this mean that price will drop all the way back to where it was before all the “excitement” began about the November 30th meeting to under $50? No, but it could and price will let us know if it does. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    for any of you’s who monitor High Yield..

    Dithering time is over.
    symmetry wise – time is up.

    Arrows self explanatory.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4ce123d80c6b6452d73d9835aafdec9010c6036d927fd29c9e25ff15b3142ea8.png

    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…coup de grâce really would be a measured upside to a true debt sucker’s Vahala bloodbath.

  • BobbyLow

    Hey RW,

    Are you anywhere near the Wild Fires in CA?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dropping price within rising moving averages.
    just trying to help old friend.
    😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    He’s more North. Fires last month were his backyard I think.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    are you kidding me? I thought he lived on the beach and used the public showers? he he.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Actually, its West….going up the Cal coast is a West heading.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you actually use a compass in your iPhone. don’t YOU?
    admit it!

  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet…but a Droid guy, did exactly that last week.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow. How about you? You’re in CA too Mark?

  • Julie

    BL Forest and range fires ….. Nightmare and wicked. Montana and Oregon burned up this summer. 1988 the fire in Yellowstone Natl Park a million acres. 2002 Biscuit Fire in Oregon 500,000 acres
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Fires surround me at the moment but not danger close sit at all one bit.

  • Julie

    Montana and Oregon can get some big forest fires. Look up the fire of 1910 in Montana (the biggest on record) The Tillamook Burn Oregon in the 1930’s Unbelievable how these can happen
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    I hear ya and thanks GG. :)

    However, I use the 195 Minute Moving Average of my SBB’s (12 Periods). This MA is one of my triggers and it began falling on Monday.

  • BobbyLow

    Well I hope they don’t get too close and good luck.

  • Julie

    BL 195 ema on the 10 min chart (one of my favorites) corresponds to the daily 5 ema
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, inconvenient. horrific, exhausting but exciting as hell to fight.
    “Many men owe the grandeur of their lives to their tremendous difficulties.
    – Spurgeon”

  • BobbyLow

    I remember riding my motorcycle over (Beartooth)?, from Wyoming into Montana in 2004 or 2005 and there were fires burning. We could smell smoke almost everywhere.

  • Julie

    BL Beartooth Pass You were 11,000 ft . The pass is only open approx. 4 months of the year. Another pass that high is Centennial Pass over the Snowy Mt Range in Wyoming Love the Rockies !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Signs of nothingburger here with some downside objectives met so exited shorts for time being see what happens.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s what you get for killin bambi.
    Nature’s lawnmowers ya’know?!

    https://photos.travelblog.org/Photos/134838/631227/f/6332913-Deer_caught_in_Yellowstone_fire-0.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    They can really skoot. Its the small types, litttle cooked crunching under your feet the night after who don’t have that option. With all the vegetation moonscaped anyway, its quicker.

  • StockTalker

    Bears taking a stab late day, see what power they have.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    This can very well be confirmation bias on my part, but this move in Gold reminds a lot of the last Dec rate hike scare. Already 1/2R in, and planning to buy more in the 1250s.

  • Julie

    SPX Dipsters came in today near the daily 8 ema and back test of the broken trend line JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fdab412d9dc34946cfa92a4a1259bae39052ba69ab087d698206d8d9dfdf27cf.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Fair question, I think its gold, but because I never get to see of feel, is it really???

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems pretty damm rational on their part….

  • Julie

    Stocktalker SPX 60 min chart IMO a corrective 3 waves down. Will not nibble until a bullish close above blue horizontal line which is a resistance matching the Ichi Cloud conversion line (8 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18dd56be14b9a8c34efbf44b18b95d644945ea80e345a2ba3337ecee38bdecbe.png ) and bullish crossover MACD May buy on the 10 min chart Channels nicely Shown SPX 60 min chart JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just asking, there seems to be a long term correlation between the paper gold and paper yen.

    I’ve stated my claim recently!

    https://disqus.com/home/discussion/evilspeculator/happy_thanksgiving_25/#comment-3630041497

    and Lo and behold, I was wrong (shocking eh?)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a8947188a7975386c4fc894b8fcc1b3054e7fd88a2f1660c76c8cc6e47ae2bf7.png?w=600&h=463

  • BobbyLow

    Not really slow or fast. 195 Minute Candles have 2 Candles per day as a visual instead of 1 Candle per day from a Daily. So it’s faster than a daily but not as fast as a 90 Minute or hourly etc. As far as weeklies, monthlies, yearlies bi-10 yearlies etc., go, they don’t matter to me. :)

  • Tomcat

    Noted, I am more interested in the correlation with $TLT.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    A few candles closing above 2632 now. Buyers have a W V pattern that could take it to 2642.

  • StockTalker

    If /YM does not breach 24200, using a 4hr chart we need one more down to complete 1. As always this topping pattern is a long process. Target approx. 24k

  • Julie

    BL If your platform has a 4 hr chart use a CCI(10) with a 21 period moving average Also insert a MACD 3,9,16 and your Bollinger bands You will front run the daily chart Draw trend lines on the CCI(10) You can use freestockcharts.com and download Silverlight Example shown ……JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/602a69a7c2a660f37299b098222e1ebd7ea9bdd21481c563bdda1eacdb57ac46.png

  • Julie

    SPX Using the 60 min and 10 min charts together ….. Not going to nibble long until a confirmed bullish close above the channel ; upper cloud boundary and horizontal blue line resistance Shown SPX 10 min chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d1ae9ae0427859fad2df9790f660ddaf633950842d305a0bd1e6e0cc273716cf.png

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Julie. I appreciate your suggestions.

    I don’t know if it’s a good thing or not to have survived this business for so long but along the way I’ve used many variations of the MACD including the 3,9,16. I’ve used the CCI and numerous moving averages as well as multiple crossovers. I traded with multiple time frames being in sync. I’ve traded all of the above on 5 Minute, 10 Minute, 30 Minute, Hourly, 90 Minute, 2 Hour, 3 hours 15 Minutes, 4 hours and the Daily. I’ve also traded EW and the Ichimoku Cloud.

    After working all of these combinations above, I’ve always gone back to my simple charts with Simple BB’s and ATR. After viewing and trading thousands of charts, I have absolutely no doubt that the KISS method works best for me. :)

  • StockTalker

    Nothing burger on AUD, report tonight.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    SPX No Cigar ! Taking a long TAL target approx. 30.88 which is the Weekly Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) matching the approx. 50% retracement and upper cloud boundary on the daily chart JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f53c7eaece46d92a36d935381fc8bdad995bb63a7ea43029a3ca94de3e17c164.png

  • Julie

    GG TAL now in journal with a multitude of notes ……. Love it GG !
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    “I don’t know if it’s a good thing or not to have survived this business for so long”

    Good thing for sure.

  • ridingwaves

    14K just now…

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Mole. :)

  • StockTalker

    This could also be “The Big One” if /YM 24k is in the rear.

  • HD

    globex got the anticipated 10 handle rally.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’ll believe it when Scott returns.
    😉

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/W2VGNL30pFI/maxresdefault.jpg

  • StockTalker

    Hehe, just went short BTC, third drive to a high.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    @ 15K??
    “a fool and his money are soon parted”

    https://www.coindesk.com/price/

  • StockTalker

    Time to get long /NG again

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I covered NG today (in the sub section – hehe)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Scott looks pretty furry there.