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CrazyIvan 1.9 Released
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CrazyIvan 1.9 Released

by The MoleAugust 6, 2013

While some of us (names withheld to protect the guilty) have passed the last week frolicking in some Australian luxury resort, the Mole has been spilling several pints of his blood to complete a new major release of CrazyIvan. I’ll spare you the gory details but suffice to say that the past five days have not been pretty as getting certain parts implemented turned out to be a hurdle run littered with barbed wire fences.

I’m glad I got to the finish line but I feel like I just gave birth to oversized evil twins. Anyway, not that you guys care either way so let’s move on to the good stuff. Here’s the skinny on what is new and improved:

  • More detailed messaging – Occasionally some of you were sending me emails asking me why CrazyIvan would exit a particular campaign before a stop had been touched. There are several ways how CrazyIvan exits – obviously it does not have predefined target, thus it has inherent mechanisms on how to advance the initial stop loss (ISL). On top of that there are also various triggers that get it out of a trade early – for instance if a new risk multiple has been gained but there was a pull back below the newly gained threshold (e.g. 1.32R was achieved but the candle closed below 1R). Another exit occurs when 1R cannot be achieved within a three candle period. Unless you know these rules intimately I would most likely continue to receive questions on an ongoing basis so in the interest of self preservation something had to be done. I decided to provide a lot more context in alerts preceding the actual exit reminder. So each time CrazyIvan changes its mind – it will be sure to let you know why.
  • Logging – I thought long and hard about how to best implement the activity logging of CrazyIvan. In the end I decided that persisting trade objects to a correlated spreadsheet in Google docs (now Google drive) would be the best way to do this in a transparent and flexible way. This allows you guys to immediately see what trades have been taken (and which ones you may have missed) and it also gives us many ways on how to extract the data into charts and statistics. Well, I quickly wound up regretting that decision as the Google spreadsheet and document APIs are disjointed and having one talk to the other turned out to be a royal pain in the rectum.
    In the end however sheer will power and stubbornness won the day and I am happy to report that the Google logging module has been successfully implemented, tested, and now deployed. I am not yet ready to start sharing the spreadsheets for two reason – one they just got launched and two they only log live activity. And then three of course – I need to make sure everything is logged accurately on a live account running for more than a day.
    The spreadsheets will be publicly available under a submenu below the CrazyIvan menu item above. A new entry will appear a few seconds after a trade completes. Each strategy will have its own spreadsheet – so you’ll see spreadsheets for EURUSD.360, AUDJPY.360, EURUSD.30, etc.
  • New trending module – Not that you would care about this but the hammer long and shooting star short entries rely on trending markets and I decided to completely rewrite the trending module from scratch. Reason being – I had to fix something on the old one and realized that it had turned into a frankenstein monster – really ugly and about to rip my head off. So I wound up killing it and writing it from scratch. Which will give us better and more precise trending entries, at least according to Ivan’s rules (as conveyed to me by the Convict).
  • Other little bug fixes and improvements – There’s obviously a lot happening behind the scenes and not a day goes by when I don’t find an opportunity to fix something or at least refactor it and thus improve the code quality. As we are moving through this beta testing phase it seems that Crazy.Ivan is running pretty reliably and with your help I have been able to improve the strategy significantly. My sincere thanks to everyone who has been contributing – every single email is appreciated.

So what is next for CrazyIvan? We’ll keep it running in beta for a few more weeks I think just to make sure it’s ready for prime time. If you have not done so already – make sure you re-subscribe so that you won’t get cut off!! And I’m sure I’m going to find a few more little issues to nail down – hopefully nothing major – I’m keeping my fingers crossed. Scott will complete the CrazyIvan cheat sheet in the next week – it’s something many of you guys asked for and it explains all types of entries that comprise the current version of CrazyIvan. In the future we may decide to include some of Ivan’s more advanced entries but that will most likely not happen for a few more months.

As for the types of subscriptions we will offer – again I gave this a lot of thought and have decided to separate it into the following:

  • CrazyIvan.30 Trending – this strategy trades about 15% of the time but when it does it is very busy – expect about 100 trades a month. We will start out with the EURUSD, the AUDJPY, the GBPUSD, and up to two more FX pairs. I am also considering to add the ZB and/or the ZN. Scott is still working on a configuration that we believe is appropriate for the ES but it’ll probably be another month or two until we get there.
  • CrazyIvan.360 – that’s the six hour version which only quiets down during sideways low volatility periods. Expect around 50 trades per month. This is great for someone who can attend to his/her charts five minutes four times each day. Yes, there is the overnight issue – not sure how to exactly address that but Scott tells me that sleeping through the night rollover will not greatly affect the end result. I await more detailed statistics from him – it’s about time he made himself useful. Same symbols as the 30.
  • CrazyIvan.720 – the 12 hour version which also only quiets down during sideways low volatility periods. You will only need to attend to your charts for about five minutes every 12 hours. Perfect for busy people with a career who cannot spend much time in front of their trading setup – minimal commitment. Or you’re just lazy – like me. Expect to receive about 30 trades each month and we’ll start out with the same products as the above.

I know what you’re going to ask already – will there be a combo sub? Frankly, I don’t know yet – it all depends on the level of interest and how things unfold. I would prefer to get this out of beta first and then gauge the level of interest. After having spent over six months of almost every spare minute it’s time to release it into the wild and see if it can stand on its own. Everything else will be decided once I get a better feel on how you guys fare with it and how difficult it will be for you to abide by a rule based automated strategy. There will be times when you will hold your nose while taking an entry – sometimes for the better and sometimes for the worse. The tutorial page is pretty verbose on what it takes to trade a rule based trading system (RBTS) and although it may have a solid edge long term it may not be for you. Or it may be exactly what you were looking for – every single trader is different.

What I like the most about CrazyIvan this far is that, thanks to all of your input, it has advanced to something very different from the other types of systems I have encountered out there. Usually you sign up at a place like C2, look at some profit charts, and then decide on some system that appears to be matching your basic requirements. Then you get the signals and you simply trade them without ever knowing how they are produced and why.

CrazyIvan is completely different and unique in that it only trades but also educates you and provides much context regarding what it does and why it does it. Over time it will actually make you a better and more seasoned trader as it will implicitly teach you discipline and consistency – qualities that are often difficult to acquire on your own. It will also instill on you a rigorous approach to position sizing and money management. After a few months of doing it this way you’ll wonder how you could ever trade without it! Finally and most importantly it will teach you what Ivan calls the ‘language of the market’ – price patterns are great way of understanding to what the tape constantly tries to tell us. Only problem is that most of us never listen as we are too busy running our mouths and our respective imaginations 😉

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Bun Dance Kid

    Appreciate all the hard work Mole, sir. Thank you.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Agree.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Somebody just flipped a switch on USD.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Have I got this wrong or have we tentatively broken to the downside? Looks rather like a D-ID break on SPY and YM

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Tentatively… looking more convincing now. YM monthly has turned red.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Testing support … maybe we’ll see a rebound – Hey, Mole, I’m doing my best here to have a dialogue with myself :-)

  • Dyellowflash

    Shorted and have taken profits. Now long mkt. Whole down move not supported by ZL imo. No rule said that a bear cant go long right?

  • bdoone

    We’ll see if Uncle Bens big fat $5B POMO has any effect.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    welcome to ‘my world’. ha!

  • Skynard

    RTV sell is it not?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Well done that man. Braving the long already eh?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Much to Mole’s chagrin, I’m afraid I don’t know my RTV from my elbow, so I’ll take your word for it :)

  • Skynard

    Nice bounce AUD off hourly 25, also crossed the 100.

  • Skynard

    Finally, shorts have the power:)

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    DOW -118
    new moon tonight. just a coincidence.

  • Ronebadger

    trend day?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    NYSE TICK closed 93.33% below its zero mark. HIGH probability of a Down Trend Day!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    they always have the power. like a cat, they pick the time to pounce.

  • Dyellowflash

    I had quite a poor fill at YM 15495, while orders at 15478 didnt hit just now. If this turns out to be a down TD I will be screwed..

  • Bun Dance Kid

    When the longs are lying on the beach, hehe

  • Dyellowflash

    Thanks to my Bear Hat…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Bun Dance Kid

    YM touched within three points of July low… could be a fun day from here

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Toe in deep water now… I make that a break of the July low

  • Skynard

    Total collapse today.

  • Dyellowflash

    Currently I am afraid it does not look like a downtrend day yet…

  • Bun Dance Kid

    What would it take IYO?

  • Dyellowflash

    None of my longs have been stopped out. I have TP-ed one set 15478 from the bottom for 120 pounds, left the set at 15495. IN MY OPINION, in a downtrend day, no way none of my longs did not get stopped out.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Cool. Thanks.

  • Schwerepunkt

    So, why is EUR and AUD and JPY jumping and gold, oil and silver dropping?

  • ridingwaves

    Next 2 weeks is a window of opportunity as earning season is practically done and seasonality helps also…the big boys need to come back and grind it up from a lower level to show their worth…

  • Dyellowflash

    haha… just in case its really a downtrend day, I have reduced my set at 15495 to half at breakeven. Now left only 4 lots in total. Its going to be tight stop and a 100 pounds penalty if I get this wrong 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Well FWIW and that’s not much, I flipped my long oil back to short this morning. I’m also close to taking a flyer short on the Q’s.

    Who knows? Perhaps we close green today. But IMNSHO, we have been at a point where “the market absolutely can not go down”, “the Fed is omnipotent” and “The Boyz won’t let it go down. But over the last 15 years I’ve been doing this, I will say that the above is a bunch of bull shit because the market will at least correct. It’s only a matter of when.

    If we do get a sizable correction, the real question is how deep and for how long. And yes, I am in holding pattern waiting to short the NDX if for not anything else but to be in position to catch the next leg up.

  • Dyellowflash

    10 green 5m candles in a row (for WS/YM)??? That’s about the max my balls would hold. TP-ed all my longs snatched at the bottom of the day and left only 1 tracker to see things out.

  • Ronebadger

    TP-ed ? what’s that mean ?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Took profits
    lucky chap

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Good call squire. I confess I rode a little on your coattails and closed my shorts near support and took a wee long too.

  • Dyellowflash

    Cheers. Actually I followed skynard sometimes too =P

  • Darkthirty

    What? You’re a lunar now?

  • Bun Dance Kid

    What time is rocket POMO due to go off?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    almost. it was more of a troll for Scott.
    he he.

  • ridingwaves

    after today…pomo is soft…inflows into stocks last month according to trimtabs was the most in years…lots of fresh meat
    http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html

  • Darkthirty

    Use all the tools

  • bdoone
  • Ronebadger
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    dead cat bounce. one more dip on the STO.

  • BobbyLow

    Skynard appears to on the right side of a trade most of the time and is the real deal.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Minimal participation – this is just another low vol shakeout.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    Agreed. But sometimes he trades counter trend very ST with tight stops. I’ve come unstuck a few times by allowing myself to be too much of a follower.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    So we can expect a rebound in a day or two?

  • Schwerepunkt

    At 1pm we have Evans and a 3-yr Treasury auction.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We can expect a rebound today – or next week – who knows. There is no clear support here and we are technically in limbo right now. They are just banging the tape around because they can.

  • Dyellowflash

    very ST refers to me?? yeah, i trade on rocket speed and rocket launching principle – whatever i buy/sell as a bulk is just the fuel for the tip of the missile. Hence the staggered filling of 1 lot, 1 lot, 7 lots and 27 lots when taking pro-trend trades and filling of 1, 2, 4 lots for countertrend trade. I set them all as pending orders together as a group to ensure that there is always reinforcement and no army is left isolated. For countertrend trades, I will never allow my third fill to be “trapped” at any point in time, hence the quick 1-3 points TPs always. Though I might reload a few times. 5m chart.

  • Bun Dance Kid

    You too, but I meant Mr Sky

  • BobbyLow

    Yep. Dyellowflash makes a good point about following someone with different time frames and strategies along with different risk tolerances etc.?

    This is why I have to have my own rules or I would drive myself nuts. :)

  • Darkthirty

    I know news means nothing but…. check DJI, everyday @ 115 CST

  • Skynard

    Yep, good short here, everything down. AUD daily BL .8960. Short /ES, stop @ 96

  • BobbyLow

    Well a trading day wouldn’t be complete without somebody from the Fed saying that there we will be no tapering during the foreseeable future or never whichever is later. :)

  • Darkthirty

    Long ES scalp, waiting on c of 4 1696 or 1698

  • DarthTrader

    I’m looking at 2 minor ABC’s up in the /ES & the /TF Targeting the 1696 on the /ES and 1053 on the /TF then I reshort

  • ridingwaves

    ZLCS is on the move, $1 target…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

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  • Skynard

    Really like Ron’s TA work.