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Cruising Into The Weekend
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Cruising Into The Weekend

by The MoleOctober 6, 2017

Looking at a weekly or monthly chart of the SPX this market may look easy to trade in hindsight. But believe me when I tell you that the past nine months have most certainly separated the proverbial wheat from the chaff. And that means if you’re still here, liquid and trading, then you are a proud member of an exclusive and bad ass minority among retail traders.

You have earned your battle scars and the skills required to survive and prosper in a market environment heavily dominated by high frequency trading bots, prop desks, and multi-national quant firms with access to quasi unlimited resources. Ponder on that over the weekend and make sure you reward yourself accordingly. If you happen to live in L.A. rent yourself the tackiest lowrider you can find, then drive it down Sunset whilst cranking up NWA. Hey, you only live once and staring at chart isn’t exactly feeding the soul.

2017-10-06_spoos_update

I didn’t see anything valuable on the entry front this morning so let’s just catch up on our ongoing campaigns. The E-Mini is still burning through its second stage booster and thus far our 1R MFE trailing strategy has served us pretty well. I’m tightening things up a little now however as I do expect a bit of a reversal either today or early next week. Trailing stop goes to < 2541 and the rest is up to Njord (props if you didn’t have to look that one up).

2017-10-06_gold_update

Gold seems to be ready to disappoint and that’s just how the cookie crumbles. We are in earshot of our stop and unless a miracle happens today I think it’ll continue lower. I didn’t give this one much in terms of odds which is why I fortunately stuck with lottery ticket position sizing.

2017-10-06_ZN_update

ZN also not looking as if it’s going to be working out unfortunately. I actually thought the odds were a lot better for that one but apparently nobody cares what I think! 😉

2017-10-06_soybeans_update

Soybeans on the other hand looked like a stillborn the other day but it snapped back and may have gotten a 2nd lease on life. I’m not doing anything here although it would be tempting to cash out. That was a pretty nasty shake out attempt which IMO actually raises the odds of a take off here.

2017-10-06_USCAD_update

I think I’m going to start lighting candles for our USD/CAD campaign. Why can’t all our campaigns play out this beautifully? I would have retired a long time ago instead of putting up with you rowdy lot! Anyway, we are already trailing at > 3R so every added pip is just another cherry on the cake.

That’s it for me for now – see you all on Monday.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Brishort

    OMG, a lot to say this morning, thanks for your heart-warming post introduction on still being around!

    People that don’t trade do not realize the mind nimbleness it takes to survive this market. I am not a man of many emotions when it comes to trading, and I do believe these types of markets existed before. Just re-read Livingston description of the markets in his days…. no excuses for bots, ECB or anything…. But discipline and a very high degree of experience (i.e. having done the greatest possible extent of trading mistakes!) clearly required to have a chance of being around for more than a pop.

    The most difficult part for most people is to ignore the news. Personally, I took your advice from years ago. If ever I read news, it is at the end of the day, after trading. Before, charts only rules…. Unfortunately it has also isolated me from a discussion with peers in person as getting the average person in my city to have an intelligent talk about the market not turning in feedback loop or justification from recency bias is next to impossible.

    Enough ramblings! Agreed with your views above, but would like to supplement the following:

    –> Major indexes: beware of the “close the morning gap” move. Unsure if this opening gap down has any legs, but upon any retracement, the Zero could be the key guiding light to know which way this has legs for the day. My preference in these types of rotation is looking for entry points of weakness in the following order: RTY, NQ, ES and Dow last. FINVIZ heatmaps are also useful to get a gist of what is happening early in the day.

    –> ZN (or ZB): Why not consider this a short? The charts reasons for your entry are just as good as reasons to consider the opposite side. I am looking for an entry on a bounce near back the broken trendline (i.e. closer to your entry point).

    –> Soy, looking to time entry, thanks for this one.

    –> Wheat!!! I would suggest keeping this one on the radat. Descending top flat bottom: The theory says it indicates weakness. But should it reverse above the trendline, this move may have a lot of legs. I would keep it very close on the radar. I still have an entry buy stop on this one a bit higher than current price action and above trendline.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I was going to post survivor song, but F’it.

    Those were the days, you didn’t have to worry ’bout shit, other than what color you wanted to paint your car, and when you got to see your girlfriend next. (ok ok, I oversimplfy)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ri_wh7CwO_A

  • Mary

    Have you looked at your GLD:UUP chart recently GG?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ps. That Homie has no trigger discipline. I cringe.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s usually the 4th or 5th chart I check.
    Intraday, it looks bad. If it stays under the median, that’s bearish for gold.
    the 166 daily is right there on price. I wish my crystal ball would work.

  • Brishort

    Morning gaps closed on RTY and NQ…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    XLE, all out.
    if this is a ramp camp, so be it. I’ve got other trades to be at.

  • StockTalker

    long /CL now for 50.0 retrace.

  • Yoda

    Still long miners here, but hanging by a thread.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    if miners can’t hang on with copper reversing, what’s that telling you?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&st=2010-09-01&en=(today)&id=p73532626852

  • StockTalker

    Just got long gold via /GC, dollar has 3 drives now.

  • Yoda

    Gold dropped down enough today just to F. with Mole’s stop

  • Yoda

    Honestly, I don’t look at copper for PM trades. The former is a commodity whilst the latter is an hedge for when the SHTF

  • Yoda

    If today’s low manage to hold this would have been a great place for a long trade

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s not a perfect correlation, am I trying too hard to see a connection?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&st=2010-09-01&en=(today)&id=p09021924428

  • Yoda

    I am curious to see what will copper and gold do respectively if we get a big risk off event.

  • Mary

    long /GC @ 1273.00 stop 1261.90

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mary

    long /ZN @ 125’000 stop 124’220

  • Mark Shinnick

    At least we know this has touched a nerve.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I bought some SLV at 15.72 yesterday.

    I’m up 2 cents!!!
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    why am I winking??
    we just witnessed today a stop run down to 15.42

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42536241407

  • ridingwaves

    not being aware of the news depends on sector..
    its not something to totally throw out of the window…
    I use it for scalping as I live in a reactive sector, maybe the most reactive of them all to news…

  • ridingwaves

    market has chance to pull back next week….
    buying some insurance today…

  • Mark Shinnick

    …with some gap fill at that; Its good to be alive through it all.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    gap fill? oh, Aug 8th.
    Good Eye.
    +1

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always climb with a safety rope.

  • Yoda

    Good idea

  • ridingwaves

    we will find out more at end of the day..
    Watching FIRE sector via XLF for now to see if carries indexes down…bio sector needs a pull back and I have sold 2/3 of my IBB and XBI from long ago..had

  • Julie

    KEM stopped out this a.m on remaining 1/4 position long. GDX took a stab short below 23.15 support then reversed quickly so cut a minor loss quickly. Will go long with a bullish close above 23,47 EOD
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I think I’ll just go surfing instead of NWA….enough noise daily to begin with…
    In Vegas right now, the crosses the Illinois man drove here and placed in front of the welcome to Vegas sign on Monday night are pretty powerful…..I’m kind of amazed at the length this guy was reaching with his AR arsenal….

  • OJuice

    It is a pretty long ways. One block in Vegas is an absolute behemoth.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Of course!!!

  • Wyo_Redneck

    Dennis Gartman says to get long, I guess we better short this

  • Julie

    Anyone long GDX ? Not sure about this one guys i.e. possible dead cat bounce into the declining 21 ema Strong support 23.36. Definitely better fish to fry so gonna pass. I did OK with KEM and now flat .I had a 23.20 stop but took myself out at 23.23 on the remaining 1/4 position Mole and Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Yoda

    Yes

  • Yoda

    Never fails

  • OJuice

    I missed an entry on the reversal today. I agree though, there is still a bit of room on the downside if the reversal cant break the larger downtrend.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this dude enrages me. you’d be better with an 8-ball.
    Does this guy not have a ruler?
    7 weeks, and *now* get long. Criminal.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5af5cb0538cbe26f5863aaf04d023508a8095fdb7718000586aa4ae23b0da710.png

  • ridingwaves

    there is a moniker from the past…

  • Julie

    Hi OJ In a post below I shorted GDX on the 30 min chart closing below 23.15 support and quickly covered on the reversal. I did not expect the reversal
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I’m stopping by with some flowers on the way back to airport, I might try to walk off the distance, based on barriers in place.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a token 1/4 position.

    24.50 has to be surpassed before anything prominent happens IMHO.
    (RSI 50+)
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p68238345796

    if the 240sma is crossed, game over man, game over.

  • Zhang_Ke

    Ha ha! I first read your message title and I thought it said “Cursing into the Weekend”! Have a great weekend!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that was many weeks ago.

    lookup “NORWEGIAN SWEAR WORDS” on YouTube.
    LOL.
    we cover it all here at EvilSpec.
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Insurance is cheap right now.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    If making money make me curse you are wrong, I still have my 2100 TQQQ bought at 113,09

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    D’ust
    😉

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    rævhol

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Come on get onto google now …

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Just copy it :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb