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Cute Little Bears
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Cute Little Bears

by The MoleNovember 4, 2009

Today’s head fake brutally ended what I would describe as ‘Fumes Rally Central’:

Just compare the downside signals with the upside signals and you’ll get an idea of where we’re heading. Yes, yes – the dip buying retards are already driving the futures higher after hours. We shall spank them tomorrow – Rome wasn’t burned in one day….. Oh, it was? Nero? Right…. sorry….

And yes, we got a confirmed short term buy signal on the VIX. Hey, perhaps I get my 1066 rip after all 🙂

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: Either 2.5+ or -4.75 – depending how you count it.

We got a regular long trade everyone hopefully rode out. Then we got another long during the freaky post FOMC whipsaw which triggered a long and a few seconds later was stopped out. So, I am not sure how many subs actually managed to go long there but we will count it on the record, no worries.

BTW, I just found our theme song for Primary {3}:

Plenty of bears and dry humping – looks perfect to me 🙂

Remember – I’m going to San Diego again until Sunday, so you rats are on your own – or at least you’re at Berk’s mercy, so be nice to him.

Bonus pic: Bulltard Of The Day – he’s donning the old ‘what the fuck just happened’ expression. Heck, I just made that a new category here at Evil Speculator 🙂

Mole out.


About The Author
The Mole

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

  • centerline

    Comments on the VIX? Appears we have a confirmed signal.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com dreadwin

    We had a similar fractal on Oct 21st. The next day was a retrace of the drop. Use stops!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    CSCO earning out. Pushing things up

  • molecool

    Remember AAPL. Earnings/news do not matter.

  • TimV

    re: geronimo

    By the time I got the alert, it was 4 points below the entry… cant imagine anyone was quick enough to buy it.

    +2.25 for me today.

  • molecool

    Coming up…

  • gregn

    Aye, it is confirmed — however this signal has to become obsolete eventually.

  • anotherone

    They aren't bears, but here's some footage of some ewoks on the Today show.

    “The drunk Ewoks did things such as fight each other, attempted to hump Al Roker, threw food…and at one stage, one even performed a moondance.”

    http://www.inquisitr.com/45561/drunk-ewoks-on-t

  • Tronacate

    IYR looks in the beginnings of a third wave of 3 down on the daily

  • molecool

    Yeah, but if I say that the sticklers are going to bitch at me – so, full disclosure all the way.

  • WTFed

    I want that bear suit.

  • mtvernon

    Only things that matter now is erikd's roof, mole's count, and daily laughs while the bulls get skewered. cnbs will be fun to watch again as they stammer and panic

  • vision_invisible

    ‘Fumes Rally Central’ – haha.

    Closed out SPY call options today and shorted SPY. I think they are going to give the big hurt to the market till they convince the Fed to ramp up the toxic mortgage purchases and figure a way to “save” the CRE market from implosion.

    Time to seal the glue on the bear suit.

  • molecool

    CSCO earnings – very nice – let the 'tards push it up again.

  • DesertEagle

    I'm happy that the 50 day moving average AND the 88 week moving average both laid a beatdown on the S&P again.

  • gregn

    VIX found support on old res: http://screencast.com/t/iXcWuvJ5yDC

  • tradejane

    That sounds great. I would love a nice little retrace for some more SRS reload. 🙂

  • molecool

    No, let's not ignore it folks – might be good for another push up. Seriously – the lesson here is to laugh this shit off and let them try try try again. It's getting silly and I wonder how long it'll take until the bulltards learn that it's either over or very close to being over. I'm not trading in days anymore – I'm trading in weeks and months.

  • molecool

    Agreed – bring it on! I have been begging those fags for a ride to 1066.

  • mtvernon

    Great discussion today on the VIX and where we are. Well done. Clearly the key and leaving the station

  • onorio

    Fuck i want a suit like those!

  • molecool

    I'm taking orders now.

  • onorio

    Could you write ES on the back please?

  • gregn

    Enjoy your vacation in San Diego, mole 😉

  • Tronacate

    I like the CSCO report……..right above Microsaoft slashes another 800 jobs……..And I just laid off a third of my workforce…….one person

    Cost cutting does not make up for the revenue implosion…….and small business is getting hammered

  • centerline

    Just make sure it matches the t-shirts

    (ha, ha…. just kidding man)

  • Tronacate

    Exactly……..man, I just shrug these pushes off nowdays……used to be I was in a panic……no more

  • tafse

    I have one 😀 have a super vacation Mole!

    Love your work 🙂

  • molecool

    Ahem – no vacation – again. I started a 2nd company and I go down there once a month.

  • onorio

    VIX update :

    I dont know about u guys, but this shit seem to me that want to fly high!

    C = 1.6 x A

    http://www.screencast.com/t/oMF2PN1zolt

    50% retrace is arround 25.4 so one more spike down is possible.

  • Tronacate

    LOL……..the fags with the big butthole?…….or do you prefer no filter?

  • molecool

    Don't remind me – what a fucking train wreck…

  • tafse

    sorry 😉 but doesnt mean you cant enjoy yourself and still love your work!

  • gregn

    I said vacation to rumple his feathers. People always mistake Mole's business trips for vacations.

  • molecool

    Yeah yeah yeah – I never take vacations – and I probably won't during P3 either. Alright, I'm taking X-Mas off tough – screw you all!

  • gregn

    You know you will still pop in during your Christmas break, but will never admit it.

  • molecool

    You know me too well.

  • Tronacate

    I thought you were cutting back on posts……..THAT'S exactly like me with smokes……set the pack in fron t of me……and poof…….up in smoke.

  • jaxon

    yeee-f—ing-hawww! maybe we can drive a stake thru this bull's heart soon. the game is coming to an end this soon. who knows, as Mole says, maybe tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    Thain is coming out of seclusion……..a bullet in the head and stuffed in a commode would be cool therapy for the tortured soul.

  • jaxon

    should be self inflicted. at least he would show some character.

  • http://venespeculador.blogspot.com Holl
  • http://venespeculador.blogspot.com Holl

    It''s over my friend. The fall today market a top for the next months or years!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don't get me started on Erikd's damn roof…

    Skål!

  • molecool

    LMAO :-))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I disagree… The $VIX signal is one of the most accurate market reversal indicators I know of. However, I have said a number of times that I really expect P3 to kick off with a buy signal. We have a buy signal, and I will touch on my thoughts about said signal in the post I am compiling as I harass you…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    True true……..just like a Japanese CEO would do when he disgraces his company and family.

  • Tronacate

    Proof puleeze………I mean I make blanket statements like that all the time………but being a tard entitles me to major mistakes……..we WANT pruf….

  • Bart7

    A Switch from Dr Doom, who has been very dollar bearish;
    Marc Faber: I Am Long the Dollar
    Wednesday, November 4, 2009 11:43 AM
    The U.S. dollar may appreciate well over 10 percent against the euro during the next quarter, says Marc Faber, the economist known as “Doctor Doom” to investors.
    Faber has long predicted the dollar’s complete collapse, so the dollar rally for him is an interesting turn of events.
    “Maybe the dollar has made a turn; it can easily rebound by 10 percent,” Faber told Bloomberg News.
    “It may have started already since the asset markets started to go down 10 days ago.”

  • anotherone

    Looking forward to many more posts in the “Bulltard of the Day” category. Hope your trip is successful, Mole.

  • http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/ The_Grim_Reaper

    The bears need some serious follow through tomorrow. I see buy signals flashing from so many corners.

    First, treasuries broke a long-term trend line. That could mean a rush into equities is at hand. Second, a vix buy signal was triggered, as mole pointed out. Third, I see a put/call ratio buy signal (when the slope of CPC turns negative, it usually means a rally). The one thing going for the bears is the AD signal — it has not thrown a buy signal yet as today's action failed to get an MA cross. The bulls need a big up day on strong AD to confirm all the other buy signals, but if it happens, I'd step out of the way or join the long side.

    http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/

  • Tronacate

    V sure put in a pretty looking reversal candle

  • gregn

    I meant what you said. I was implying that we must eventually ignore buy signals when we are in P3.

  • Rd99Hse1

    This, as well, is just a peek / theory, but it's a good chart.

    RT @stevenplace: $$ Black Bars. http://bit.ly/3Edjwv $$

  • ultra

    Nummy over at SoH reminds that Joe8888's cycle pivot day is upon us – so what are we at, pivot high…. or pivot low?

  • DMS425

    It is probably his Mom and Dad's roof now…………………………

  • DMS425

    Great thought! Ignore the variance and watch the return.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    To me, it looks like it is a secondary rally pivot high… Remarkably it aligned with a date I have for today. This peak could actually be the more major turning point as it would let us know FOR SURE that the decline is upon us.

    Interesting huh…

    Skål!

  • 4everGrateful

    2009-11-04_1826

    My first crack at adding a chart, so here it goes. This is the long term chart I have been basing my short entries off of. IMO, we need a break and retest of 9500 before the bears can take a big sigh of relief. I was surprised that last week, price settled down right on my 10 EMA and now bouncing. When the 20 SMA breaks along with the other congestion at that point, we are looking good. The RSI has yet to break the 50% line which is big in my opinion and the MACD continues to weaken. This is a weekly chart that I also used during the 1930 bear bounce and it is very similar to today's action. Hope it helps!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks for posting… Looks good. Nice to get a longer term perspective on it too. RSI not breaking 50 could be suggesting we have some juice for an slightly larger drop than some of us are looking for. That would be sweet.

    Skål!

  • Bullturnedbear

    Yes you could make that the theme song for P3 except it is like watching paint dry boring. Come on minute wave 3. Thanks for your efforts Mole.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    agree on both counts

    5 up seems missing (though truncations do happen)
    this is the balls of season season, play your roadmap or get scared everyday…twice

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12421#disqus_thread

    Skål!

  • centerline

    Comments on the VIX? Appears we have a confirmed signal.

  • http://dreadwinaard.livejournal.com/profile dreadwin

    We had a similar fractal on Oct 21st. The next day was a retrace of the drop. Use stops!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    CSCO earnings out. Pushing things up

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Remember AAPL. Earnings/news do not matter.

  • TimV

    re: geronimo

    By the time I got the alert, it was 4 points below the entry… cant imagine anyone was quick enough to buy it.

    +2.25 for me today.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Coming up…

  • gregn

    Aye, it is confirmed — however this signal has to become obsolete eventually.

  • anotherone

    They aren't bears, but here's some footage of some ewoks on the Today show.

    “The drunk Ewoks did things such as fight each other, attempted to hump Al Roker, threw food…and at one stage, one even performed a moondance.”

    http://www.inquisitr.com/45561/drunk-ewoks-on-t

  • Tronacate

    IYR looks in the beginnings of a third wave of 3 down on the daily

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, but if I say that the sticklers are going to bitch at me – so, full disclosure all the way.

  • WTFed

    I want that bear suit.

  • Captain Obvious

    Only things that matter now is erikd's roof, mole's count, and daily laughs while the bulls get skewered. cnbs will be fun to watch again as they stammer and panic

  • vision_invisible

    ‘Fumes Rally Central’ – haha.

    Closed out SPY call options today and shorted SPY. I think they are going to give the big hurt to the market till they convince the Fed to ramp up the toxic mortgage purchases and figure a way to “save” the CRE market from implosion.

    Time to seal the glue on the bear suit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CSCO earnings – very nice – let the 'tards push it up again.

  • DesertEagle

    I'm happy that the 50 day moving average AND the 88 week moving average both laid a beatdown on the S&P again.

  • gregn

    VIX found support on old res: http://screencast.com/t/iXcWuvJ5yDC

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    That sounds great. I would love a nice little retrace for some more SRS reload. 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    No, let's not ignore it folks – might be good for another push up. Seriously – the lesson here is to laugh this shit off and let them try try try again. It's getting silly and I wonder how long it'll take until the bulltards learn that it's either over or very close to being over. I'm not trading in days anymore – I'm trading in weeks and months.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed – bring it on! I have been begging those fags for a ride to 1066.

  • Captain Obvious

    Great discussion today on the VIX and where we are. Well done. Clearly the key and leaving the station

  • Onorio

    Fuck i want a suit like those!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I'm taking orders now.

  • Onorio

    Could you write ES on the back please?

  • gregn

    Enjoy your vacation in San Diego, mole 😉

  • Tronacate

    I like the CSCO report……..right above Microsaoft slashes another 800 jobs……..And I just laid off a third of my workforce…….one person

    Cost cutting does not make up for the revenue implosion…….and small business is getting hammered

  • centerline

    Just make sure it matches the t-shirts

    (ha, ha…. just kidding man)

  • Tronacate

    Exactly……..man, I just shrug these pushes off nowdays……used to be I was in a panic……no more

  • tafse

    I have one 😀 have a super vacation Mole!

    Love your work 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ahem – no vacation – again. I started a 2nd company and I go down there once a month.

  • Onorio

    VIX update :

    I dont know about u guys, but this shit seem to me that want to fly high!

    C = 1.6 x A

    http://www.screencast.com/t/oMF2PN1zolt

    50% retrace is arround 25.4 so one more spike down is possible.

  • Tronacate

    LOL……..the fags with the big butthole?…….or do you prefer no filter?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don't remind me – what a fucking train wreck…

  • tafse

    sorry 😉 but doesnt mean you cant enjoy yourself and still love your work!

  • gregn

    I said vacation to rumple his feathers. People always mistake Mole's business trips for vacations.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah yeah yeah – I never take vacations – and I probably won't during P3 either. Alright, I'm taking X-Mas off tough – screw you all!

  • gregn

    You know you will still pop in during your Christmas break, but will never admit it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You know me too well.

  • Tronacate

    I thought you were cutting back on posts……..THAT'S exactly like me with smokes……set the pack in fron t of me……and poof…….up in smoke.

  • jaxon

    yeee-f—ing-hawww! maybe we can drive a stake thru this bull's heart soon. the game is coming to an end soon. who knows, maybe tomorrow.

  • Tronacate

    Thain is coming out of seclusion……..a bullet in the head and stuffed in a commode would be cool therapy for the tortured soul.

  • jaxon

    should be self inflicted. at least he would show some character.

  • http://venespeculador.blogspot.com Holl
  • http://venespeculador.blogspot.com Holl

    It''s over my friend. The fall today market a top for the next months or years!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Don't get me started on Erikd's damn roof…

    Skål!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO :-))

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    I disagree… The $VIX signal is one of the most accurate market reversal indicators I know of. However, I have said a number of times that I really expect P3 to kick off with a buy signal. We have a buy signal, and I will touch on my thoughts about said signal in the post I am compiling as I harass you…

    Skål!

  • Tronacate

    True true……..just like a Japanese CEO would do when he disgraces his company and family.

  • Tronacate

    Proof puleeze………I mean I make blanket statements like that all the time………but being a tard entitles me to major mistakes……..we WANT pruf….

  • Bart7

    A Switch from Dr Doom, who has been very dollar bearish;
    Marc Faber: I Am Long the Dollar
    Wednesday, November 4, 2009 11:43 AM
    The U.S. dollar may appreciate well over 10 percent against the euro during the next quarter, says Marc Faber, the economist known as “Doctor Doom” to investors.
    Faber has long predicted the dollar’s complete collapse, so the dollar rally for him is an interesting turn of events.
    “Maybe the dollar has made a turn; it can easily rebound by 10 percent,” Faber told Bloomberg News.
    “It may have started already since the asset markets started to go down 10 days ago.”

  • anotherone

    Looking forward to many more posts in the “Bulltard of the Day” category. Hope your trip is successful, Mole.

  • The_Grim_Reaper

    The bears need some serious follow through tomorrow. I see buy signals flashing from so many corners.

    First, treasuries broke a long-term trend line. That could mean a rush into equities is at hand. Second, a vix buy signal was triggered, as mole pointed out. Third, I see a put/call ratio buy signal (when the slope of CPC turns negative, it usually means a rally). The one thing going for the bears is the AD signal — it has not thrown a buy signal yet as today's action failed to get an MA cross. The bulls need a big up day on strong AD to confirm all the other buy signals, but if it happens, I'd step out of the way or join the long side.

    http://ethicalcheating.blogspot.com/

  • Tronacate

    V sure put in a pretty looking reversal candle

  • gregn

    I meant what you said. I was implying that we must eventually ignore buy signals when we are in P3. Especially since it broke out of wedge

  • Rd99Hse1

    This, as well, is just a peek / theory, but it's a good chart.

    RT @stevenplace: $$ Black Bars. http://bit.ly/3Edjwv $$

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Nummy over at SoH reminds that Joe8888's cycle pivot day is upon us – so what are we at, pivot high…. or pivot low?

  • DMS425

    It is probably his Mom and Dad's roof now…………………………

  • DMS425

    Great thought! Ignore the variance and watch the return.

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    To me, it looks like it is a secondary rally pivot high… Remarkably it aligned with a date I have for today. This peak could actually be the more major turning point as it would let us know FOR SURE that the decline is upon us.

    Interesting huh…

    Skål!

  • 4everGrateful

    2009-11-04_1826

    My first crack at adding a chart, so here it goes. This is the long term chart I have been basing my short entries off of. IMO, we need a break and retest of 9500 before the bears can take a big sigh of relief. I was surprised that last week, price settled down right on my 10 EMA and now bouncing. When the 20 SMA breaks along with the other congestion at that point, we are looking good. The RSI has yet to break the 50% line which is big in my opinion and the MACD continues to weaken. This is a weekly chart that I also used during the 1930 bear bounce and it is very similar to today's action. Hope it helps!

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    Thanks for posting… Looks good. Nice to get a longer term perspective on it too. RSI not breaking 50 could be suggesting we have some juice for an slightly larger drop than some of us are looking for. That would be sweet.

    Skål!

  • Bullturnedbear

    Yes you could make that the theme song for P3 except it is like watching paint dry boring. Come on minute wave 3. Thanks for your efforts Mole.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    agree on both counts

    5 up seems missing (though truncations do happen)
    this is the balls of stainless steel season season, play your roadmap or get scared everyday…twice

  • http://www.evilspeculator.com berkshire

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=12421#disqus_thread

    Skål!