Dark Tuesday Wrap Up

This session is one to be remembered – statistically speaking it will most likely skew Volar’s charts I posted yesterday.  Are you ready to relive it in all its infamy (or glory – depending on your perspective)?

I think that bullish divergence roughly mid session was my personal highlight of the day. And I hope it kept you from chasing this beast lower.

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Tuesday, November 1st, 2011 at 4:49 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • Anonymous

    Mole, what’s your take on the hourly zero?

  • nyse

    I love these vidz, yo!

    Whats up on those RED tshirts, man? I WANT ONE!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Looks emotional right now – no firm conclusion – sorry.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks anyway. 

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_6BBLQ2HIGFBSFAFZ7NHEQVYEFA Sricharan

    yesterday you were telling us to buy at close? 3% loss. That is equal to annual returns of most hedge fund managers.

  • Anonymous

    Who was saying that? Not me, not Mole, not anyone I remember

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You sir, are a bloody idiot. Re-read my post again:

    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=24992

  • Anonymous

    My comments on the tape today. I agree with Mole that real technical damage has been done now. The bulls had a wide open door and failed to capitalize.

    So when things *should* have been going up, but didn’t, we look for a larger move to the downside.

    However this is still an unretested high, and the highest probability outcome for tomorrow is some kind of bounce to retest the high. 

    For me if trading short timeframes I would at least bank some profits, and consider exiting altogether.

    I think the odds of continuing down in a straight shot are low, but within a week we should look to lower prices

  • Anonymous

    second that.

  • Anonymous

    “Investors were scared in the past two days, but the level of NYSE New
    Lows is suggesting that Institutional Investors are not panicking.” stocktiming.com

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can’t disagree there – it would take quite a strong push up now to disqualify the damage done in the past two sessions.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just checked – anonymous Yahoo email with no history – troll.

  • Anonymous

    What the?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ISEE equities today closed at 130 – way too bullish – I don’t like it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Troll – don’t waste your time. The posts speak for themselves.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scott – also check out Volar’s post – you may find it illuminating.

  • Anonymous

    There must be an army of yahoo trolls sitting in a room somewhere.

  • Anonymous

    Same for me. I would not discard a flush tomorrow a.m. during gullible hour. I left some lottery tickets just for that. I wouldn’t want to go long for a retest of the high without seeing first a positive divergence on the hourly zero.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can I see a chart of that somewhere?

  • Anonymous

    Absolutely, By the way – Love the “Choreography” such as your trend lines and text blurbs;)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I got 86 new 52-week NYSE lows:

    http://tinyurl.com/6adfbqe

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Also, NYSE A/D ratio was 0.173, which is D/A 5.78. Very respectable but given this drop and the increase in IV I would have expected something near the 10:1 mark. So the jury is really out here – I am not convinced either way yet.

  • Anonymous

    Well, It’s about time (Ggggggrrrrrrr! 600 points later! (JK)

  • Anonymous

    So at the moment it all comes down to the question whether last week was bull trap or if this week (so far) is bear trap. Both look very convincing in their own ways. The seasonal statistics point to the bullish case. But what is there to underline the possibility of the bearish case? 
    Mole, have you lately taken a look at your volatility indicators? Maybe the MMs know something we don’t.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’d laugh, but trying to be reverent under these circumstances.
    ok, it’s probably a lagging indicator.

    Next T time – Nov 23rd.

    http://i41.tinypic.com/23r0lk0.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I looked at them over the weekend and did not see anything alarming. Which is why the whole thing strikes me a bit suspect. Here – take a look yourself:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/f134a432-78e7-400a-960e-cd527ce17ab2/00003186.png

    Of course they all pushed up today but the ratio remained pretty normal, so this suggests not much proportional increase in three month IV and/or OTM strikes IV.

    If anyone else has a better read on the data please let me know.

  • Anonymous

    Ok – at least i added something vaguely useful!

  • Anonymous

    nov. 23rd is “debt super committee day”.

  • Anonymous

    http://stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
    Actually, although is says ‘tuesday update’, the chart may be actually mondays

  • Anonymous

    All Securities is 67. Not too much I thought..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Thank for posting those. And you’re right, there’s nothing really conclusive to be found. 
    There is one thing, though, concerning the tech sector. Take a look at the NDX and some of the more prominent and popular stocks like AAPL and AMZN. They started to lag behind the index in mid October and didn’t follow to the new highs. GOOG held up better, but others former darlings like NFLX got completely curb stomped. That’s certainly not healthy behaviour for a raging bull market, but its probably not enough either to call for P3 (except if you’re Steve Hochberg).

  • Anonymous

    You are correct AAPL is looking suspect.

  • Anonymous

    1230 is a causing problems for bulls..

  • Anonymous

    Sentiment is poor. If there is no “counter” news out of Europe. probably gap down at open. I think European is stunned and played by Greeks – philosophers turned bandits. 

    It’d be telling if gap down are bought or not.

  • Anonymous

    @mole what level would you watch if 7913 gives way on kiwi?

  • Jose Lemma

    Hey Mole, how about that free Zero trial?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Probably somebody from one of the other financial blogs who is jealous with the clear trading edge you (mole, CS, Volar, Fearless) are providing here — even for humble leeches like myself. 

  • Anonymous

    Agree, this 1230 level is the front line right now as it also within the “Black Hole” on Mole’s chart;)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Fearless

    What I would like to see for tomorrow’s session is a sandwich move to get the entire bar sandwiched between the acceleration line and the 20 day SMA on lower volume. If we get that sandwich move (which I think we will due to the VIX double spike), then Thursday’s session is a short.  The 20 test brought back lots of bearishness, which is nice to see.

    The NYSE absolute breadth indicator (see my posts Chart-o-Mania parts 1 and 2) is still solidly in the ‘market bottom’ range. That is unbelievable given that we had a 218 SPX point ramp up from the October 4 bottom. That, along with the VIX spike, tells me that I should go long again at Thursday’s close or Friday’s open if we get the sandwich move tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    Can someone translate into english? Good luck fearless. Your too advanced for me to follow.

  • Anonymous

    We may have a Christmas rally after all, albeit late.

  • Anonymous

    A slice of Cadbury

    Bullishly, too, the value for the McClellan Oscillator reached +282 on Thursday, a new high. Most new high values
    for the McClellan Oscillators lead to new highs for the S.&P. 500 within the next two weeks or so. In 2011 the Dow is ahead by only 0.7%. Pre-presidential election years are the best years of the four-year presidential election cycle. The average gain for the Dow during pre-presidential years has been 10.5% according to Jeff and Yale Hirsch in the “Stock Trader’s Almanac – 2011” In the last five pre-presidential years the average gain has been 22.1%. The Dow is likely to do some catching up in November and December. Yesterday the gap in yield between the 10-year U.S. Treasury at 2.00% and the yield of 2.05% for the S.&P. 500 was bullishly extremely low by historical standards at .05 %

  • Anonymous

    whats acceleration line? BB upper line?

  • Anonymous

    yea if nothing else blows up between now and year end.

  • Anonymous

    picture is worth a thousand words..

  • Anonymous

    That my comment made it to the center of a mole post even if it was simply to ridicule? Be still my heart.
    Greece always mattered, regardless of what  you want to equate it too, the entire rally off 1070 has been based on europe is fixed, the cracks develop and instant reversal nothing more nothing less.

  • Anonymous

    Hum, just in time for turkey you say?

  • Anonymous

    Euro starting to spark up? We just had a <$0.06 move in three days. I say retrace!

  • Anonymous

    Bitter?

  • Fearless

    They’re all in my past posts. I can’t post a chart right now.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    ok..willl search. no worries..

  • rhae

    black holes are always worth tracking… my Black Hole tracker says…
    SPX    
    downJul-27-20111329.59 to 1327.58

  • Anonymous

    Bitter about what? Made a ton on the move . Mole wiffed it it happens.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/36c048fa-17f2-4966-bdc7-877c47870dce/2011-11-01_2135.png
    The beginning of the week I said clearly many scary movie previews…OK the question to ask yourself why go short now. MMM because the neransfix your attention on Greece. Because of a politician? Because all of it is done…A referendum that could take weeks..Guys really?  I’m not saying that either short or long is good idea. What I will say is do not be scared of this week and do not make the mistake of not recognizing your fear trade, you know what I mean “boo”..LOOK at the date on the picture, enough said.

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I was not trying to ridicule you – after all I did not mention your name. What I was trying to was to make a point. If you are honest to yourself you know that the tape could have happily bubbled higher despite all the bad news out of Greece and what have you. This was not about you – I want to get you guys to stop trading the news or even thinking about the news. The problem with doing it is that it’s such a self-reinforcing system, a bit like religion. Nothing you say or do appears to sway people who have been told for decades that the news affects what investors do. What really affects the tape is how people feel about the news and even then much of it happens way before the headlines ever are printed (or these days posted digitally).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Come on guys – this is not productive. Let’s focus on charts and what’ll happens next. All constructive thoughts are welcome.

  • Anonymous

    Thank you Mole that is exactly what I was trying to say NEWS is not pushing this around and why I posted the pics of boo boo Greece.

  • Anonymous
  • Anonymous

    That looks like tops in. 93, AH?

  • Anonymous

    My point mole which everyone seems to have missed was the bias of your post, from the cover your shorts to the fact you gave three scenarios  and all three ranged from bullish to very bullish.Talk of bear traps and scaring the children. Nary a mention of this could be breaking down here and cover a portion of your short and leave a stop at breakeven perhaps? I am a leech here and as such don’t know what was in the cloaked portion of the post but what was available to the public was biased to the long side to the extreme.

  • Anonymous
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are being completely cynical and if you know how to read then you know that one of the scenarios was definitely pointing to the downside. You obviously didn’t get my point that failure of a statistically bullish day would be a bearish warning sign in itself. Plus I did also send out an email to all subs overnight making sure that they would hedge their positions as the spoos was breaching 1240.

    I think you’re just being emotional, mate – but that does not mean I have the wear the shoe you’re trying to hand me. Also, when reviewing your comment history it’s clear that you are a very abrasive, aggressive, and opinionated individual. So I think you’re better off not participating in the dialog over here as I find your comments completely counter productive.

  • Anonymous

    Ah, yes take heed to those candles;)

  • Anonymous

    basically 5 day SMA (i think O + H + L +C / 4). also can find in his posts 

  • Anonymous

    I am abrasive , aggressive, opinionated, emotional, and counter productive. Evidently this took a personal attack turn. have a good evening.

  • rhae

    VTI 60m All Markets… most majors look about the same. Something is bothering me about the momentum waves. (Not EW)  Generally the terminal wave is kinda whimpy. So is a little dead cat bounce in the cards to finish it off? Nothing would please a bear more than a waterfall continuation,,, just bust the blue trigger line and continue South. But there was a nice bounce at Daily critical daily support  and price never came back down… Toss me in with the iffy crowd… 

    VTI 60m pitchfork   http://screencast.com/t/tDnfihJHlvdy

  • Anonymous

    getshortie, not sure where you got “extreme bullish bias”. I read this:

    “This is what’s going to happen: We are either going to bust higher in a huge way right here or now (i.e. starting in the overnight spoos and then at the NYSE open tomorrow) – OR we beat all statistical odds and drop lower. So watch the S&P E-Mini overnight and look out for signs of accumulation – I sure will.”

    And got the message that it can be either way, and it will prolly be a big move.  Hence, when we broke trough 1240 i went short the spoos. All fine and dandy! :)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    /ES 1227
    oh there’s a neck line there alright.  as we pass into Midnight EST.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Anonymous

    thanks mate..




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