Now Reading
Ditto Gold
119

Ditto Gold

by The MoleDecember 14, 2011

Perhaps I should take it easy on the eggnog but heck I’m throwing this one out gratis:

If you caught that NLSL on gold you’re probably feeling mighty smug right now. Well, wipe that silly grin off your face and start cashing out – I think the easy money is over for now. That lower 100-day BB line should be good for some support, at least on a short term basis.

Medium term only an immediate push above 1636 before Friday would spare the shiny metal a visit of the 1500 mark – at least that’s what my weekly NLSL is showing me right now. So, I expect a bit of push back here but I don’t think gold is completely done yet.

Of course the astute steel rat may already have considered the long term implications here: IF we really drop toward 1500 then that would mean we’re getting very close to gold’s monthly NLSL at 1478. That would be a great opportunity to take on long positions – or short contracts if it looks like we’re going to fail. Either way – if this goes according to plan it ought to be a lot of fun. Let’s keep our fingers crossed we’ll get that setup and thus an opportunity to show the gold bugs how it’s done.

UPDATE 2:15pm EDT: I just realized that one of our favorite commodities setups may be ready for the plucking – subs only however:
[amprotect=nonmember]
More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

Remember that cocoa trade we were all waiting for? And how it ramped up hard after touching 1200? I told you guys to not chase this up – and now you know why. Well, this may be as good as it’ll get, folks – we just descended back to that first NLBL at 2154 and I think we can be long here as long as we don’t plunge through it. I also see a bit of hourly support here as we are testing the 100-hour SMA right now – ideally we want to push above it in the next few hours.

If we do fail this NLBL then I would not want to be short – I would prefer to simply go back into cash and to wait for further instructions.

Copper also looks like a good long here – I would prefer 3.23 but whether we’re getting it is another question. If you prefer EFTs you can also trade NIB which is not a par match but close enough for govmint work as they say. Happy hunting!

[/amprotect]
Cheers,

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Joe_Jones

    You’re on a roll, Mole!
    ;0)

  • Anonymous

    Repost from your last post since it got killed so fast:
    Mole why the switch from a 10pt/box to 5pt/box on the spx p&f? And what are your thoughts on using close versus high/low?

    BTW
    I think an algo outfit must subscribe to your Zero, this is like the 3
    or 4th time recently where a clear (usually divergent) trend is
    established only to violently break. Looks like it might be happening
    right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    P&F boxing is a bit of black magic – simply I do not like the default box settings and this seems to work better fo rme.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Please reload page – I just added a sub section.

  • Anonymous

    Gold short gone! Will be back again:)

  • Anonymous

    THoughts on SLV?

  • Anonymous

    FWIW I’m watching the hourly trend line on the NON smoothed zero.  Should resolve tomorrow or Fri.

  • Tronacate

    FSLR loves me……comes through again…..

  • Anonymous

    Falling out of bed it seems:)

  • Anonymous

    EUR/GBP SD is spiking higher on daily chart. I would wait for the spike to go higher first before thinking we have seen a bottom yet.

  • Anonymous

    ES just took a dump at VWAP.  It may rally, but not yet!

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Mole, how does that COCOA trade translates to NIB? you may want to mention it in the subs section, since probably some of us are limited to ETF trade only.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeeezzzzz!!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Would have appreciated a pointer you stingy rat!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Preferably at 50…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Cable has been dancing lately – also watch the pertinent ZeroFX panel.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • Anonymous

    Yes it has. I would have loved to have gone short. But I would rather employ the shovel technique instead of base jumping thrills with these moves down. If that makes any sense. I’m nervous of central banks going nuclear on this market.

  • Anonymous

    TZA not perfoming like I’d hoped. May can it!

  • Anonymous

    Is that a buy?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Can you believe this was a $170 stock less than a year ago? Ouch…

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY at its hourly NLSL at 77.17

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually I was just thinking about it – for the noobs – and then forgot. Thanks for reminding me – will do.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Indeed…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Buen pensamiento, Señor Cabrera.

  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the copper btw, got in at 3.2605. :)

  • Anonymous

    Anyone trading tech stocks? AMZN appears to be in the process of painting one big dailly hammer.

  • nyse

    Probably been hard for you guys to trade with me being outta pocket an all… j/k. 
    Nice posts as per usual. Been sick and busy but I hope you ratz have been gettin it in (euphemism = http://goo.gl/WLAQ8)

  • nyse

    You are nuts/hilarious

  • TwinTurboRX7

    Mole you put NIB in the Copper section instead of under Cocoa, what I am looking for is what the NLSL/NLBL number in Cocoa chart translates to NIB

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I don’t know we are told to watch it. Are you a sub?

  • Anonymous

    A high probability trade right now is to get long gold for the intraday chop which usually follows such an outside move

  • Anonymous

    I understand the “get long gold” part, but I’m not clear on your reasoning thereafter.

  • Ted Gresch

    What about SPX

  • Anonymous

    Don’t forget OPEX whipsaw. Options Max Pain: SPY 124, QQQ 57, IWM 74. We spent a bunch of days in the SPX 1250-1265 area sucking in the Santa Rally/Euro summit fixed bull crowd. Took a day and a half to decimate them and draw in the bears here.  Paying close attention to AUD/JPY for clues.

  • Joe_Jones

    Some decent volume today on copper:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p67488420718

    Probability is that we revisit the daily 5 sma tomorrow

  • Tronacate

    I’ve been riding the FSLR death spiral for months………

  • Tronacate

    Jeesus Mole……I’ve been posting FSLR time after time……….could be a Solyndra in the making…….bought some 2013 lottery puts……

  • Anonymous

    Yep

  • Tronacate

    My short ride started at 87…….;)……..had a fucking outrageous target of 35 which got hit today………now it’s hard to borrow…..

  • jigdaddy

    fearless, come out come out wherever you are…

  • Tronacate

    I’m sick of these leveraged etfs like SDS…….pos

  • Tronacate

    My handy dandy 300 min ES chart shows us right in the meat of he channel

    http://screencast.com/t/2iHrP5eGAAa

  • Anonymous

    me too

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Not my preferred entry by far – was hoping for a nice round bottom pattern. Well, let’s see what happens…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    29.21 – but it didn’t come down to it all the way whereas CC did almost touch 2154. That’s why I play the futures – I usually prefer the setups there.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he’s likely on vacation.
    Just don’t tell me what type of vacation.
    he made a KILLING this Month.

  • Anonymous

    Ronebadger, I think that gold has a LOT MORE DOWNSIDE to come over the coming weeks. The monthly weekly and daily patterns are in alignment (and I posted them before it happened 😉

    However a move this far outside the daily bollinger bands, with confluence support that Mole pointed out, should be good for 8 hrs or so at least of limp bounce.

    The logic is simple. When you have a whole session of one way traffic, amazing capitulation to the downside, in the following session there are cross currents at play. Nervous shorts taking profits (buying) , bottom feeding retail traders, long term investors at long term supports, latecoming shorts.

    Its almost impossible to predict this next few hours of tape with any certainty other than it will likely be a choppy mess retracing at least back to support or fib levels before either a) resuming its slide b) starting a squeeze and going higher (what wave fuckwits call a wave c)

    In addition you have a 60 minute retest variation buy setup.

  • Anonymous

    Consider reloading at higher levels :)

  • Anonymous

    Alright, I know I said Im done for the month. Well I meant normal trading lots have two three pairs going. I have to buy EUR/GBP here only one lot it is not much to risk (and only pair that I will go long on). I will set stops 100 pips below and let profit run to .8500 if momo seems good.Rules are meant to bend sometimes.

  • Joe_Jones

    The Day Freedom In The USA Died:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/congress-passes-662-billion-defense-bill-aka-ndaa
    :-((
    Time to pack!

  • Fibz

    bullish

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY new low by one pip. Jeeez!

  • Anonymous

    Here is the entire 72 hour move since the pop up on THursday morning where it started.
    DeMark shows its exhausted (red 13), though technically the Risk Level to take a trade at the end of the move is to subtract the range of bar 13 from its low which gives 1546. 
    A new momentum phase move started this morning in pink and is now at bar8. But t will cancel in 1.5 hours from now with a close >1571.5 
    So for me I have a very high probability long trade this evening, 
    http://screencast.com/t/Yu1MQ0PJg7VR

  • TwinTurboRX7

    AUD/JPY bounce twice near the hourly NLSL

  • Anonymous

    Good day for you right? Sticking to longs for now. How about eur/usd long? Interested?

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    Indeed! LOL, still waiting on 1.287 to trigger that buy order. If it can clean 1.3 you may have something:)

  • Anonymous

    China news at 930. lets see if its good.

  • Anonymous

    You know when the world has never learned anything and will never learn until all this non sense of war being started over debt. euro zone crisis…So let me get this straight. Spending real resources and massive spending on potential war because of fall out of euro zone. Im sorry I waste some time even posting about this. But it pisses me off to see the filth on the telegraph news paper. Defense chiefs drawing up plans in case of..(rolling eyes)

  • Anonymous

    Here is my chart, it is channeling nicely!

  • Joe_Jones

    what’s your timeframe?

  • Anonymous

    Daily chart below.

  • Anonymous

    The FX side looks suspiciously calm. EUR/USD has been flat for hours now only a few pips below the NLBLs. Similar picture for Cable. I’d like to be in once this thing breaks out and up is much more likely for the Euro right now given how far it has pushed outside the Bollingers.
    On the other hand copper is showing some (no volume) life to the upside.

  • Anonymous

    wrong picture above

  • Anonymous

    That is an impressive candle and many others will think the same. Need to see it oversold before sticking my neck out:) JMHO

  • Anonymous

    /CL trying to power it up here.

  • Anonymous

    Well, my point is that we had a daily candle completely outside the 25d Bollinger. Last time that happened was on 11th September 2011 after the daily candle before lost around 250 pips. Next thing happening was a more than 400 pips rallye (measured from low to high).
    I’d love to do some datamining on this kind of setup but I lack the proper tools on the FX to do so.

  • Fibz

    not yet…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed – not seeing much edge here right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO – Britain doesn’t even have a functioning Navy anymore – that boat has literally sailed a long time ago. 

    That’s right – when the economy slumps just start a war to get production back into gear! But don’t outsource most of the components to China as you may find them on the other side of the trench 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We are packing. Y aprendemos castellano 😉

  • Anonymous

     disheartening to say the least to see the sort of rhetoric that constantly flows. 

  • Anonymous

    OK, that is possible.

  • Anonymous

    Dollar continues to show strength, the /ES & AUD/JPY making new lows. Should be another good day:)

  • Anonymous

    Nah too early. Looking for a retracement. Final target 89 on DX. But for now I hear jingle bells! Santas coming!

  • thelighthousenj thelighthousen

    Look at the stars on Euro zfx

  • Anonymous

    Where are you from bro?

  • Anonymous

    Originally from India. Now in South florida.

  • Anonymous

    Hum, yes one of these days am planning to retreat to some better weather state. Of all places ended up in Michigan.

  • Anonymous

    Too cold for me. Michigan is in a depression. Driving is difficult in winter. You should compare roads here. Pristine.

  • Anonymous

    Agree, completely! This state is greatly depressed and the city is broke and corrupt.

  • Anonymous

    Cocoa had lost the NLBL for a short time but appears to be recovering after finding support at the 100-hour SMA. Not sure about long entry.
    Also, Cable breaking out.

  • Anonymous

    Need to re-login to disqus to reset. Same chart.

  • Anonymous

    Yes, I noticed that. Was wondering whether this was a Disqus bug or Chromium auto-completing things on its own. I relogged now, thanks!

  • Anonymous

    You in Detroit area? I’m just north of Kalamazoo. Shoot me an email: andy at (my disqus name) .com

  • Anonymous

    Cut my gold short position this am by another 30% @ $1,572 from $1,772.  My sole position is now a 50% short gold position from $1,772.   Bringing stop in on remainder to $1,650.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Morning rats.
    /ES decided it’s had enough.
    may be nothing, may be the start of ‘cake’.  it’s OpX Thursday.
    http://i44.tinypic.com/2u93dle.png 

  • Anonymous

    Thanks GG. Any reason why you are using the December contract instead the current March one?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    (GG slaps head)  is it that time again?  
    why yes…it is.
    my how time flies.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    AMC,
    USDZAR – 8.345
    good enough?  I think we need 8.30 before declaring a reversal.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I’ve asked this question before: Where’d this morning erection come from?

    Answer: Spain.

    Tapas of the morning, to ya. Hmmm. Might be good for a long on a retest around 1200-1205? 

  • Anonymous

    Yes, 8.30 is exactly the level I’ve been keeping my eye on.

  • Anonymous

    Since I’m not an FX guru, can someone interpret how equities may behave if EUR/USD goes up? i.e. Is there much correlation, either direct or inverse?

  • Schwerepunkt

    VWAP test then go?

  • Anonymous

    Time for Bounce Q’s closed the Gap

  • Schwerepunkt

    Unless the correlation disappears, the two track pretty closely. EUR up=stocks up and vice versa. Only occasionally do they diverge.

  • rhae

    this morning economic numbers were fairly hot… spinner probably out in force… 

  • rhae

    SPY… the beat goes on…
    http://screencast.com/t/ynVlWdktn

  • Anonymous

    Thanks. I’ve been using the correlation btw AUD/JPY and /ES with some success, and want to watch other pairs on the ZFX as well.

  • Anonymous

    Short half lot usd/zar. stop set at 8.47.

  • Schwerepunkt

    JPM going to issue 30-yr debt today. Should be interesting to see how that is priced. Should be a good measure of “risk.”

  • Anonymous

    any thoughts on gld breaking yesterdays low?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what??  
    I thought we had a no trade shovel pact for the week?;-)

  • Anonymous

    Im thinking Oil is a good short here

  • Anonymous

    Last commodity that needs to take a bath

  • Anonymous

    I’m about to close it!! Sorry sorry the deals were so good today you know!

  • Tronacate

    FSLR……kaching again

  • Tronacate

    DECK got clobbered this am

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    None of this matters to us.

  • Anonymous

    Series of lower lows past two days, still significant selling on the rips
    but we are setting up a possible  Fakeout Buy in the 60 minute chart this hour

  • Anonymous

    Break was only by a small margin and accompanied by RSI divergences on the hourly panel. I’m thinking about buying the low’s retests if it holds.

  • Anonymous

    It touched the 50% retracement of advance. Not sure this is done yet, next probable target would be the 61.8 at 2090. It’s probably a better idea, though, to play the daily retest than fishing for bottoms right here.

  • Anonymous

    EUR/USD looks live a developing long setup. ZeroFX is sending signals to buy, it bounced of VWAP on the 5m and has reclaimed the 50-hour SMA.

  • Anonymous

    yes it has closed under the hourly NLSL so higher chances of more down to that 618 retrace, 
    but if it stays around todays days range of 82, then a RTV Buy tomorrow will be a good r/r

  • Anonymous

    Scott
    would you say we now have a higher probability that this ‘hardtime’ period extends beyond the first session? Reason I say this is because the Daily RTV Sell has already produced large R and we sit at a potential support , Daily lower 100 bb
    no position, out of that overnight long before the bell

  • rhae

    ok, I will try and stick with just the charts, even if anyone asks a question…

    SPY current channel  
    http://screencast.com/t/AqAbU9OYizx

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    CL was a good short at 101 three days ago.