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Divergent Wednesday Rub Down
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Divergent Wednesday Rub Down

by The MoleJuly 8, 2009

You can say a lot about today’s tape but it for sure wasn’t boring:

Zero Lite’s claim to fame today was the textbook double bottom including a gratutious divergence which I pointed out to my intrepid subs. Which was followed by a massive green monster lift off Houston style. Right now they’re flopping it around the 874 VWAP – if it holds it’ll be a base to launch this into our blue scenario tomorrow morning.

Program Trading Update:

geronimo/ES: -6.5 (early trade went bust – followed by a nice trade in the afternoon)

I’ll chime in a bit later today when I digested today’s tape a bit more.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ S T L ¸¸„„ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤ P L E A S E º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • innatedc

    Yep me likes the blue scenario very much…..

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    AA out with earnings now..Wonder when trading starts?

  • rhae

    AA in the morning. you think Specialists hang aroung after quitting time, when they can go drink beer at the pub…
    T&S showing 2 1/2 million block( red) at 4:00 , someone may have sold the bell.
    Heard they beat rev…. if cycle is up probably priced in. I have not pulled up a chart on it.

    someone correct me if wrong, doesn't NYSE close at 4:00? I never keep up on the rules…

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/lEaAgtmmP

    Perception of risk, shorted JNK on bear flag

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I'm no genius but this can't be good:

    Alcoa Q2 revenue $4.24 bln vs $7.25 bln

  • KidDisco

    I'm holding FAS, URE, SSO and ERX going into the close.

    Mr. Blue please.

  • KidDisco

    Is that expected revenue or YoY comparison.
    If its YoY and they beat expectations, then its a good thing. After all, that's what the past 3 months of hell have been for me…

  • dollar

    4:24 PM Alcoa (AA): FQ2 EPS of -$0.26 beats by $0.12. Revenue of $4.2B (-42%) vs. $3.9B. Shares -0.5% AH.

    http://seekingalpha.com/?source=refreshed

  • thelefteyeguy

    take a closer look at the -0.26….

    😉

  • divergence

    Just got set up where I can track/chart futures in real time. (I know, I know, don't make fun of me. Its just that with Tradestation you have to set up another account, and I already had my regular account and IRA with them, and all those fees)

    Can some of the experienced futures traders recommend some of their favorite chart settings and set ups to study/track the ES? For example, I watch SRS on a 15 min chart with a 9,39 EMA, which works nicely for me and can generate many profitable trades. What is your favorite setup for ES? I will just be watching and studying for a while, and not trading yet, so I want to experiment with several options.

  • kinihepu

    Q's getting good bounce AH.

  • molecool

    The Zero 😉

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    AA opens higher

  • divergence

    Yes, I have subscribed for several months now, it is a useful tool.

  • 1981er

    Aside from scalping the futures, took a small starter position in DRYS, as one of my indicators flashed on it today.

    Still holding puts on AIG, GOOG, PALM, HIG,

  • 1981er

    I personally like using crossovers, VWAP, and Bollingers while paying attention to volume, pivots etc… Would use Zero except not really trading /ES as much as other futures lately.

  • Lordted

    If this bottom holds for a bit here (870) – Fib extensions overlap and we appear to have touched the bottom of a chanel.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Plug21/folders/

    Few more indicators on this one…..

  • Count_de_Monee

    “July 8 (Bloomberg) — Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported a second-quarter loss that was narrower than analysts’ estimates after production cuts and workforce reductions helped the company save money.

    Excluding certain items, the loss was 26 cents a share, narrower than analysts’ average estimate for a 38-cent loss…”

    Well, if that's all there is to it, I can say that, excluding certain items (like the last 4 months), I'm up over 500% this year. Yeah me! This “excluding certain items” and FASB suspension of mark to market is fun.

    Ah, what the hell, if you can convince your broker not to mark your portfolio to market, and you exclude certain items, you're all millionaires. Ain't that grand?

    I love living in the twilight zone, or is it Alice in Wonderland?

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I would not want to be going to bed short tonight. There was no big declines in the dow,spx and ndx. Infact, the stocks that got there ass kicked had big turn arounds…Like RIMM. I think all this talk on the tv about the H/S is going to hurt the shorts. Always do the opposite when everyone has that trade on….

  • JWBlack

    I got into some ERX at the close, too.

  • AudioTactics

    I got ripped up big time today…

    Was long for a bounce off of 880 in the SPY then got stopped out during the sell-off…

    Then as if things weren't bad enough, I got run over in my long TBT position after the 10yr auction…

    Then just to pour salt on my wounds, the equity market ends roughly unchanged while bonds closed at their highs – Arrgh!!!

    What a terrible day…

  • PRSGuitars

    Dr. Brett's analysis of the $TICK (NYSE up/down tick indicator) is phenomenal and the TICK itself is my single favorite indicator. The vwap as a study (along with 2.0 std dev. bands from vwap on either side) and basic support and resistance are all you need on a chart (a 20 and 50 simple moving avg. aren't horrible for the larger timeframes, 15, 60min, etc).

  • Osso

    seems AA an excellent short over 10…!!!!!

  • ropey

    the longer term trade is still the H&S – it's a complex H&S and was one shoulder short when they took it down below the neckline, it's still sell the rallies for me unless they crack 930 again which i dont believe they will for this quarter ( but who knows right? )…

    I think st – it's sideways to slightly bullish then roll over proper to low 800s once the meat of the earnings are out of the way or they may do it sooner rather than later if a bellweather has overestimated and doesnt meet.

    Either way, sure to be quite a volatile chopping month or two..

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    well folks, I made a nice 8 point ES profit this morning, only to lose it all plus more late in the day in that whipping action. Then went long and made back what I was negative in, and managed to only sustain a .25 pt loss.

    I feel like I worked way too hard for nothing today!

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    $SPX – second daily close below the fan. Today's high was a backtest. On the other hand, $COMPQ and $TRAN have bounced off their key support.
    http://tinyurl.com/l2cf4b

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    long CME, ICE from lows… might have gotten ICE right on the 5th attempt… have lost $90 so far trying to catch the ICE falling sword so far.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    swing trader's paradise

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ICe…may be…around 70+

  • Osso

    noticed DIA made =low thanMay 1st…..when Dow made 8099 low ( today was 8089).

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Why do people buy Cramers picks after hours on his show?Good example is BEZ.It poped when he had a segment on it..

  • molecool

    Ooops… okay, I have back tested various combinations of moving averages – and no matter what anyone tells you – SMAs seem to perform the best.

  • molecool

    Really sorry to hear that AudioTactics – don't let it get to you – it's not personal – don't make it a vengeance trade tomorrow.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    swing long – out tomorrow if I get a pop

    ________________________________

  • Bricks

    Anyone know wtf happened to DLTR today? I can't find any news and it gapped up open and rose all day.

  • LostIllini

    Little help here Rats. Need your best play long and short, sitting in cash right now and I believe tommorrow will be a gap up, gap close, Red, then a green rocket ride. I'm thinking Palm may be the way to ride the rocket as it is sitting on it's long term support line. If we take a nasty turn I'm looking for some Auto Zone goodness as there is a lot of air. I am very open to good trading suggestions on both long and short sides so let's here them….

  • ropey

    GOOG/ISRG next thurs 1 day before opex – it is a casino but can be very rewarding

  • ropey

    nods, if the bounce occurs, it'll be a deadcat till they resolve the government restrictions in a few months..

  • ropey

    DRYS got an upgrade from credit suisse today, i think the downside is pretty low here – i've a medium term position out to 6+ on it at the mo…to think it was >140$ in the height of the commodity madness..

  • katzo7

    Someone asked me to look at GE. And this is what I found. It was like deja vous all over again!
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/08/oh-gee-i

  • ropey

    Yup been there done that, had my fun with getting a beating last thurs. Got to take the emotions out and trade like a terminator..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0qKs7SeCoKE

  • moneyfarm

    FDO beat. Probably rose in sympathy with that news
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Family-Dollar-sha

  • Peasant

    just wanted to point out that we haven't breached the low of minute wave 1 of minor C (or Y in Mole's chart) on any of the indices so there is still a chance of a little more downside tomorrow. From 12:45 til market close it looks like a 3-3-5.

  • divergence

    Thanks I will backtest some SMA combos as well. I am just a simple guy. I like to backtest all kinds of things off various charts, RSI 5, 15, 85, I use a lot off a daily chart, sometimes a 60 minute. I don't know how to code yet.

    Under most circumstances, I would say that I am not a good day trader yet — I break even at best. But I usually make money on swing trades. I do not trade options yet, though I have studies and paper traded them. I would much rather buy 1K shares of something than options, because I want to lower risk of ruin as I am learning. I have certainly put in 90-100 hours of study/trading per week since January, as the natural gas business is so bad right now that I don't have much work. Fortunately, I still get mailbox money from royalties and had a super 2008.

    I have read and absorbed so much that I am looking to learn the RIGHT types of information rather than just information. Right now, I feel like I have a good understanding of the basics of charts, oscillators, support resistance, pivots, etc. From here, not as sure which way to further the learning process. Part of me wants to delve into balance sheets and fundamental aspects of stocks to add that aspect to a basic knowledge of technicals. I have a legal education background, and I am very good with comprehension and reading and absorbing information. I suppose an software engineering type person would gravitate more toward strategies. Who says you can't learn both? After you have a good understanding of the technical basics, which is the next step that you would pursue in your learning. Elliot Wave? Coding? What would you suggest?

  • KidDisco

    I thought today's action was rather constructive. Bears could not make the tape collapse nor close meaningfully below support. Now that Alcoa came out with better than expected earnings, you could have commodities and, in particular, oil rip up in the morning.

    Plus, oil bounced right off of $60, which seems like a nice round number for a bounce and back test to $66 or something.

    Of course, I have long positions, but I'm trying to be objective about this.

    I think we rip up tomorrow.

  • KidDisco

    Well, good luck you, fine gentleman!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    because it is a widely known fact that % of retarded people far exceeds % of people with functioning brains. That is why market goes higher than smart people expect and lower than smart people anticipate

  • LostIllini

    Bears Heads up!!! It's earning season, now is NOT the time to be short banks. I know what you are thinking, ” They are bankrupt pieces of shit, why shouldn't I short them?” Because they are flush with cash, get to borrow at 0% and are exempt from taking losses because of the mark to market BS. They are going to pre announce record quarters just like last quarter and bears are going to take it up the cooter again. Hey I can't wait for mob “justice” either (memo to self: pitchfork…check, torch….check, a good hangin' rope….check) but I just don't think that day is upon us….yet.

  • Peasant

    We certainly could. I noticed buyers finally showed up for OIH. July 90 call volume was 3X higher than OI today. I didn't want to go long until after AA earnings.

    10 yr treasury yield broke support today at 3.46% which I think is also interesting for the equity markets. Seems like flight to safety action to me.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Fujisan, seeing any good FX trade for the late night.

    I like those Persons Pivots, i viewed an online tutorial and bought 2 books of his.

    I broke even on that USD / JPY trade…and then it ran way waydown.

    In perfect crystal clear hindsight, I should have programmed a stop to reverse the trade if it passed the necklline. If only the crystal call wasn't so foggy.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    going through hundreds of charts – they all hint on next Tuesday going long

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it does not matter what WE think – what matters – 875 is a key level for the market and no key levels has even been taken at once

  • molecool

    Those were some pretty significant moves in the currencies today – the long entries were really around noon EDT – that's when we busted far outside the 2.0 BB on the GBP and the Yen.

  • KidDisco

    Amen to that!

    Lest you bears forget, it was not but 2 months ago that banks reported a load of bullshit earnings where accounting standards were modified, calendar years were modified leaving off whole quarters of bad performance and all kinds of magical green weed starting popping up.

    I lost more money than I can count shorting the banks in April and May.

    I also seem to remember Meredith Whitney saying don't short the banks in the 1st and 2nd quarter. More than a few level-headed analysts say wait until the 3rd and 4th quarter.

    If you must short… wait until the Zero line crosses to the downside!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Please understand that I don't want to put salt on your wounds, that being said
    why would you want to go long on downtrending instrument? (same as TNX and such)
    http://screencast.com/t/R84muyPc
    I still holding /ZN since 112'300 and intend to hold till 119.300 at least or next Monday whatever comes first. (not even looking , I guess it is about 600% gain )
    http://screencast.com/t/403MxzeaYXP

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    FSLR tomorrow on market open 🙂

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Yeah, if one can catch those moves…..there is coin to be banked.

    Rather than being annoyed by all the market volatility and manipulation, we should as traders, find our center and relish the opportunity of this once in a lifetime traders market.

  • bist

    Today's candlestick looks almost like a hammer. I wonder if we can take it as a sign of an upcoming reversal.

  • Fujisan

    Yeah, that's exactly what I did. I went long last night, woke up in the morning realized that it was forming a bear flag, so I placed a short order at the break of yesterday's low, which turned out to be a big winner.

    With this approach using Person's pivots, my trades are always placed against daily support/resistence level, so it's a good idea to flip the position once those support levels are broken (and turned out to be a much bigger winner than I originally expected).

  • Fujisan

    What's amazing is that, it looks like USD/JPY completed a=c pattern today in a couple of hours (if you take the higher high from April and higher low in May).

  • Osso

    Loved this piece from Simon Johnson…..

    The second scenario begins more bleakly, and might end that way too. But it does provide at least some hope that we’ll be shaken out of our torpor. It goes like this: the global economy continues to deteriorate, the banking system in east-central Europe collapses, and—because eastern Europe’s banks are mostly owned by western European banks—justifiable fears of government insolvency spread throughout the Continent. Creditors take further hits and confidence falls further. The Asian economies that export manufactured goods are devastated, and the commodity producers in Latin America and Africa are not much better off. A dramatic worsening of the global environment forces the U.S. economy, already staggering, down onto both knees. The baseline growth rates used in the administration’s current budget are increasingly seen as unrealistic, and the rosy “stress scenario” that the U.S. Treasury is currently using to evaluate banks’ balance sheets becomes a source of great embarrassment.

    Under this kind of pressure, and faced with the prospect of a national and global collapse, minds may become more concentrated.

    The conventional wisdom among the elite is still that the current slump “cannot be as bad as the Great Depression.” This view is wrong. What we face now could, in fact, be worse than the Great Depression—because the world is now so much more interconnected and because the banking sector is now so big. We face a synchronized downturn in almost all countries, a weakening of confidence among individuals and firms, and major problems for government finances. If our leadership wakes up to the potential consequences, we may yet see dramatic action on the banking system and a breaking of the old elite. Let us hope it is not then too late.

  • katzo7

    Some quick observations about the SPX 500 channel candles on day and week.
    http://www.bostonwealth.net/2009/07/08/spx-500-

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    HI Fuji, Ill try to look around 8 tp 9 hawaii time.

    The volume seemed pretty low from what TOS displayed. i assume that TOS is just not privy to all the data, I though FX volume was just huge all the time? I was using $1000 to $3000 of real money, and buying 100,000 to 300,000 of currency pair… ?????? I wouldn't mind losing several hundred for the chance to make several thousand.

  • fa_q

    Spent the day looking over charts. It may take 9-12 days to get there, but I'll be shorting around 900 on the cash. To me the timeline is more important than the price. If we hit 900 in 2-3 days I won't be shorting it. Time and price is needed. My ultimate scenario would be a high into the Tuesday following OpEx. Yeah, I said high. I can really see us chopping around here a bit. Some will call it a bounce off the bottom Bollinger to the mid, some will call it putting in another right shoulder, etc etc. I'm not saying we don't trip down to 850 first, I'm just looking for 900 around that Tuesday to sell. If it drops without me, so be it, I've done well this month.

    I'll probably be setting another auto sell (half order this time) and won't be posting here as I'm taking a golfing trip Scotland where I'll be drinking and sleeping during US market hours and then to Tampa, FL where I'll be drinking during market hours. Hopefully when I land in LAX again I'll have the same result as I did yesterday.

  • molecool

    By the time they finally wake up and abandon their attempts of propping up the status quo it WILL be too late. Don't expect our ruling class to even attempt to 'do the right thing' – which is politically inconvenient and thus over and over again will be postponed until the window of opportunity to turn things around has invariably passed.

  • Keirsten

    My kind of trading. LOL I'm a descendant of Robert the Bruce btw- Scotland is on my bucket list.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Blood will be shed before this is over as well.

  • Keirsten
  • Flatlander

    And who will be to blame. Not the ruling class. It will everyone and everything else. We complained about the bailouts. We complained when they raised our taxes. We complained when we lost our jobs and savings and continued to complain as the ruling class continued to drain our economy for their own rewards.

    And the ruling class will feel justified since they tried their best to save us from ourselves.

    And to those that think the ruling aristocracy was something only to be found in history, look around and see what we have now.

    The market was a lot more fun before it was so blatantly manipulated.

  • Fujisan

    Do you see volume in Forex? That's strange — Forex is not traded in one centralized exchange market, so it normally does not show the volume.

    It's not really my saying as to how you manage your risks, but I use a rule of thumb of risking 1% (John Person says up to 5% per trade) of my account per trade, due to the high leverage. I highly recommend that you start small, especially if you are new to Forex. So, for instance, if your account balance is $10,000, I would only risk $100 per trade. Let's say you are planning to risk 50 pip on US/JPY trade, you buy 20 lots. I know this may sound lame, but you can increase your lot size once you get used to it.

  • ropey

    oh you're the infamous Keirsten the Bruce? 😛 lol

  • ropey

    oh crap, missed that one 🙁 hmmm

  • TurkeyBone

    Seems Bulls and Bears are afraid to let anything run for more than 15 min.
    Everybody knows why 6 is afraid of 7
    Well 7/8/09 is behind us now.

    What would Oil Can Harry do?

    Do the things you Fear, and the death of Fear is certain

  • Keirsten

    You should see me in a kilt with my face painted. I'm fierce. LOLOL

    How's the weather been up there btw? I miss it so much at this time of the year.

  • ropey

    here's more info on that WFC options stuff i witnessed earlier..

    From seeking alpha..

    Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) – Shares of Wells Fargo have surrendered more than 3.5% today to stand at $22.52. The WFC ticker symbol surged to command one of the top spots on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one fervent bear juggled 155,000 put options around the July and August contracts. This investor was seen rolling 45,000 puts – which he originally bought for 2.40 each – from the in-the-money July 24 strike price for a premium of 1.30 apiece to the August 24 strike where 60,000 put options commanded a purchase price of 2.75 each. The trader then reduced the cost of the transaction by selling 50,000 puts at the August 17.5 strike price for 50 cents apiece. Maximum profits will be realized by the investor if shares decline to $17.50 by expiration next month.

    Same goes for MS – some big bets being put into the August/October timeline..

    These are significant volumes, last time i saw stuff like this going on was about a month before bear and lehman dumped…….the speculation continues…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    crap.. I missed that one too.. with the big pummelling that FSLR has recently taken, there might be a decent upside there…

    Unknowingly I got into STP & TSL calls today.. so it is like playing FSLR without the risk of IV crush.

  • http://www.pacfreehotwater.com steveo77

    Konichiwa Fujisan,

    I do see volume in the “active trader” tab of the classic TOS charts (not the prophet charts). But not much, maybe only TOS or Chicago based volume.

    How different is FX from say, daytrading equities or futures, which I feel pretty comfortable with.

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • ropey

    there is nothing on yahoo or earnings.com

    according to earnings.com

    Q2 2009 First Solar, Inc. Earnings Release $ 1.62 n/a $ 0.85 27-Jul-09 – 6-Aug-09

    Still have a chance 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    same expectations here – up hard starting next Monday/Tuesday all the way into OPX

  • Fujisan

    Oh, it's so much different and I'm telling you, if you are taking trades everyday and betting $1K~$3K every time, you will run out of your funds much sooner than later. Forex market was here before and it will be here after we are gone. Take your time and get to know the market.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    You are not truly believing that “they” are trying to turn things around?
    “They” just buying time to hide “their” money

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not for as long as welfare checks are going out

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not looking for multi week long play here (due to ongoing sell on weekly), rather multi day bunce with resume of short …we'll see – when.
    Good night gents (ladies are all asleep with headache now anyways)

  • AudioTactics

    Cheers guys – thx for the support! =)

  • AudioTactics

    Regarding the TBT probably because I'm a contrarian…

    I was looking at support around the 50 area based on Feb 09 highs and then congestion during the month of May 09 and then we've been bouncing off that 50 level for the past 6 or 7 trading days.

    Also, supply related reasons like the smell of Stimulus Package Part II in the air as well as the fact that recent auctions on the longer end have not been digested well recently – but Wednesday's record breaking 10yr auction results definitely got me twisted.

  • Keirsten
  • Flatlander

    And who will be to blame. Not the ruling class. It will everyone and everything else. We complained about the bailouts. We complained when they raised our taxes. We complained when we lost our jobs and savings and continued to complain as the ruling class continued to drain our economy for their own rewards.

    And the ruling class will feel justified since they tried their best to save us from ourselves.

    And to those that think the ruling aristocracy was something only to be found in history, look around and see what we have now.

    The market was a lot more fun before it was so blatantly manipulated.

  • Fujisan

    Do you see volume in Forex? That's strange — Forex is not traded in one centralized exchange market, so it normally does not show the volume.

    It's not really my saying as to how you manage your risks, but I use a rule of thumb of risking 1% (John Person says up to 5% per trade) of my account per trade, due to the high leverage. I highly recommend that you start small, especially if you are new to Forex. So, for instance, if your account balance is $10,000, I would only risk $100 per trade. Let's say you are planning to risk 50 pip on US/JPY trade, you buy 20 lots. I know this may sound lame, but you can increase your lot size once you get used to it. I would also make sure that risk/reward is more than 1 to 3 so that I could get ahead even if I'm wrong 50% of the time.

  • ropey

    oh you're the infamous Keirsten the Bruce? 😛 lol

  • ropey

    oh crap, missed that one 🙁 hmmm

  • TurkeyBone

    Seems Bulls and Bears are afraid to let anything run for more than 15 min.
    Everybody knows why 6 is afraid of 7
    Well 7/8/09 is behind us now.

    What would Oil Can Harry do?

    Do the things you Fear, and the death of Fear is certain

  • Keirsten

    You should see me in a kilt with my face painted. I'm fierce. LOLOL

    How's the weather been up there btw? I miss it so much at this time of the year.

  • ropey

    here's more info on that WFC options stuff i witnessed earlier..

    From seeking alpha..

    Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) – Shares of Wells Fargo have surrendered more than 3.5% today to stand at $22.52. The WFC ticker symbol surged to command one of the top spots on our ‘most active by options volume’ market scanner after one fervent bear juggled 155,000 put options around the July and August contracts. This investor was seen rolling 45,000 puts – which he originally bought for 2.40 each – from the in-the-money July 24 strike price for a premium of 1.30 apiece to the August 24 strike where 60,000 put options commanded a purchase price of 2.75 each. The trader then reduced the cost of the transaction by selling 50,000 puts at the August 17.5 strike price for 50 cents apiece. Maximum profits will be realized by the investor if shares decline to $17.50 by expiration next month.

    Same goes for MS – some big bets being put into the August/October timeline..

    These are significant volumes, last time i saw stuff like this going on was about a month before bear and lehman dumped…….the speculation continues…

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com MyLifeMyTrade

    crap.. I missed that one too.. with the big pummelling that FSLR has recently taken, there might be a decent upside there…

    Unknowingly I got into STP & TSL calls today.. so it is like playing FSLR without the risk of IV crush.

  • http://oahutrading.blogspot.com/ steveo77

    Konichiwa Fujisan,

    I do see volume in the “active trader” tab of the classic TOS charts (not the prophet charts). But not much, maybe only TOS or Chicago based volume.

    How different is FX from say, daytrading equities or futures, which I feel pretty comfortable with.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
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  • ropey

    there is nothing on yahoo or earnings.com

    according to earnings.com

    Q2 2009 First Solar, Inc. Earnings Release $ 1.62 n/a $ 0.85 27-Jul-09 – 6-Aug-09

    Still have a chance 🙂

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    same expectations here – up hard starting next Monday/Tuesday all the way into OPX

  • Fujisan

    Oh, it's so much different and I'm telling you, if you are taking trades everyday and betting $1K~$3K every time, you will run out of your funds much sooner than later. Forex market was here before and it will be here after we are gone. Take your time and get to know the market.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    You are not truly believing that “they” are trying to turn things around?
    “They” just buying time to hide “their” money

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    not for as long as welfare checks are going out

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    not looking for multi week long play here (due to ongoing sell on weekly), rather multi day bounce with resume of short …we'll see – when.
    Good night gents (ladies are all asleep with headache now anyways)

    Also, alt energy longs in my view based on expected temporary reversal in oil, dollar, bonds sometimes in the beginning of next week.
    (STP is not to my liking, but TSL might get some pop)

  • AudioTactics

    Cheers guys – thx for the support! =)

  • AudioTactics

    Regarding the TBT probably because I'm a contrarian…

    I was looking at support around the 50 area based on Feb 09 highs and then congestion during the month of May 09 and then we've been bouncing off that 50 level for the past 6 or 7 trading days.

    Also, supply related reasons like the smell of Stimulus Package Part II in the air as well as the fact that recent auctions on the longer end have not been digested well recently – but Wednesday's record breaking 10yr auction results definitely got me twisted.