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Do Or Die!
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Do Or Die!

by The MoleSeptember 1, 2009

12:30pm EDT: The headline applies to both the market and you guys. Something I do not tolerate is laziness and complacency – listen rats, we are at the cusp of the shorting opportunity of a lifetime, so get with the program. I expect all of you to work your little heineys off. Where are the charts, the long lists of victims for us to brutalize over the coming months?

Are you rats evil enough to ride this thing to the downside? All I see is cheer leading and hand clapping over a few handles to the downside. This is nothing! You think you made some money today? Wait until we start dropping for real – today’s little dipper can easily turn into yet another buying opportunity for the bulltarts – remember we had another $5.6 Billion POMO auction this morning – I’m sure this cash will be deployed in a very short order. BTW, if you are holding short term puts/futures positions right now I suggest you take profits.

The buck needs to stop fucking around and start breaching resistance lines – let’s start with 78.74 – unless we start pushing up hard this thing is probably going to remain in sideways mode ad nauseum.

The SPX is at an important inflection point right now. A breach of the psychologically sensitive 1000 mark would surely trigger a whole hornets nest of stops. I don’t think it will happen today quite frankly – this would be too easy – and again, primary dealers are flush with cash after that POMO auction – it will get deployed later this afternoon, I’m pretty sure.

Should we breach the 1000 mark orange and green will be promoted to our high probability scenarios. The 980 line is probably where the rubber meets the road – if the bulls lose that mark Primary {3} has a good chance of being in motion.

If we get another dip buying frenzy into the close I will wait for new market highs to add to my short positions – if that happens chances are that the permabulls will push this thing into the 1040-1050 cluster.

1:19pm EDT: I have updated the stats/charts section on the geronimo page – go take a look. For what it’s worth – in one of the most difficult markets I have ever witnessed this thing has been kicking ass and taking numbers – it’s been an excellent first two months.

1:36pm EDT: Victim of the day:

Read this for more context on the above – hat tip to Berk who recently emerged from his Alcor cryonic hibernation chamber.

2:21pm EDT: I just put in a stingy order for January SLV puts – spread are shit though – whatcha gonna do…

3:31pm EDT: Okay, the freaky last hour is upon us – we have half a pack of cigarettes, a full tank of POMO cash for primary dealers, we are right at the 1000 mark, it’s dark and we are wearing sun glasses.

Hit it!

This is going to be a very revealing moment in the tape – if they don’t drive the tape up right now and here Primary {3} might become the leading scenario.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Joe8888

    Possible bounce area's on the daily SPX Chart…

    http://www.screencast.com/users/chartwiz/folder

    .

  • springheel_jack

    I agree with Mole. It looks like selling the rallies is the order of the day now.

    Looks like we might get a short rally here though.

  • Anonymous

    what is the basic difference between evil.rat and resident.evil?

  • springheel_jack

    Fujisan, what are your thoughts here?

  • http://misinheritance.com/ misinheritance

    I'll prepare around 5-10 charts at the end of the day today of some stocks I'm beginning to buy puts in/

  • Anonymous

    what is the difference between resident.evil and evil.rat?

  • bhagman

    how about buying puts on the toxic dinosaurs that have accounted for 30% of August volume financed by the POMOs, TOMOs, and HFTs? C, FRE, BAC are looking pretty tasty!

  • Cerebro82
  • onorio

    That`s what i want!

    I just dump my puts and want to reload higer, not playing on the long side anymore.

  • Blood in the Streets

    Where is that Fannie Mae screenshot from?

  • ausdude

    There she goes…

    S&P trading at 998 right now (as reported by CNBC – SPY @100.3)

  • bist

    I'm expecting a bounce too, but not counting on it. Drops can come quickly. I exited most of my long positions. It's not worth the risk at this point

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    aussie dollar complete breakdown from the highs as well as other currencies….pay attention to fx here folks….its leading the way down.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i couldn't take it anymore, just downloaded chrome, let's see if it's as good as Ms. Anna says it is!!!!

  • Dragonsbane

    DXY index is 57.6% weighted to the EUR and 11.9% weighted to the GBP. Since the correlation between EUR and GBP is almost 1 on the day. You can really just watch the EUR instead of DXY. If it brks 1.42… im pretty confident DXY will follow.

  • Fujisan

    Hi, Jack, it looks like the selloff came much ealier than I expected, and if weekly S1 does not hold (we are right at weekly S1 pivots), then we will see 980 very soon. I'm still expecting a H&S pattern formation so after it drops to 980, then it will go back up to 1015 to form the right shoulder, and then go down again to 980.

    We take it one strep at at time.

  • jamesmarkii

    SHorts
    CME (shorted at 295) this morning
    BIDU at 339 yesterday
    GOOG at 468
    PNC
    BBT
    BAC

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks Fujisan.

  • Vardoger

    Don't underestimate the leverage out there by the big boys. Unwinding is the key IMO

    NSM is good short. HIG and XOM still have plenty of room to run if you get a spike

  • Dragonsbane

    and looks like the EUR just gave way with a vengeance…

  • springheel_jack

    Well if volatility returns properly we could start seeing 5% moves again. 5% down today would see us test 965. I'm not expecting to see us break 980 today but who knows.

  • springheel_jack

    Long side looks much more dangerous now. We're watching the secondary trend change from bullish to bearish here.

  • Vardoger

    We are in a well defined channel since 11:30est this morning. Watch out for a ramp job if we break upper boundary

  • springheel_jack

    Sol is long 750 ES from 1001, looking for a bounce to 1013.

    Congrats to Sol, he's up over $1m in the last week.

  • rhae

    I have been clapping wildly all morning… but that does not count… So I just have to go with our charts.
    This is the one I put up Thursday, Friday? forgot… undated because it has not blown up, yet. No need to annotate, you guys can read a chart.
    SPY daily with pitchfork and fib ext targets… You can see where a close point of interest is…
    http://screencast.com/t/xnc1EFwuz

  • springheel_jack

    GBP as well.

  • molecool

    Dollar now at 78.88 – at least someone is listening πŸ™‚

  • springheel_jack

    Thanks, you can see why Sol is looking for 1013 here.

  • molecool

    Not the worst idea I've heard. But wait for the big bounce…

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    sliver is pissing me off, i hope 14.89 stops it, there c = .618a

  • dullmind

    Well, took me so long to draw this Mole posted his “Do Or Die!” post, but here goes.
    I see a possible un-mentionable pattern that may define a pull back after today before
    more down side. It fits Mole EW chart and I have shown OPEX expiration dates which
    will influence the market, but I am not certain how. Fuji care to chime in? Its a StockCharts.com
    public link, assuming you have a stock charts account, simply click Annotate when you bring
    it up and save to your own folder. If there is anyone here who can't see it, speak up and I
    will try to figure out how to publish an static image. I use Linux mostly, so the Jing tool does
    not work for me. Have fun.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=4&g

  • molecool

    What – you don't trust my charts anymore?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    ok i downloaded chrome, now i can't access td ameritrade because it blocks all the pop ups, urggggg

  • bist

    GLD and SLV are taking off, fear must be having more of an effect in driving them up more than the rising dollar has in driving them down.

  • springheel_jack

    That's what Fujisan is seeing too.

  • thunda72

    nice chart, dullmind… I think that's what Fujisan was saying in her post over the weekend, although the head was supposed to take longer to form (several more days of dojis). We just might be seeing an acceleration of the plan!

  • rhae

    Send Mole over to kick DISQIS in the A*s

  • mediatik

    wow is there a bottom to nat gas

  • bdf72

    I sure hope this is green. One thing on my mind recently was whether we get a Santa Rally/January effects rally this year. If so we have to move hard soon or wait until February/March for payday.

  • marcT

    Mole,

    Can you please post your throughts on SLV?? It's killing me!

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Hedged my delta a little bit with more puts… IWM Dec 50

    dont want to get too long or too short in this market until I see a break or blow off top

  • ultrabear

    My Elliott wave take (alt. count is that we are in 1-2, 1-2-3 down and have seen the high already – either way, a bounce now)

    http://www.screencast.com/users/ultrabear/folde

    [posted this waydown the last page so apols if corn]

  • anthem

    Ha Mole, Short term profits eh. What's your take if you're holding /ES contracts ? I've got ES contracts at 1022 and 1031 – basically averaged out at 1024. Anyhow /ES contracts aren't exactly long or short term – except that they get reconciled out every night.

    I've got stops at 1005 for now for 1/2 the contracts. If it goes back up, I'll take the profits and run. I'm pretty sure we'll see a bounce either later today or definitely tomorrow.

  • SpeedSkt1

    I have weekly S1 for the SPX at 1016.93; S2, 1004.93; and S3, 993.66……the weekly pivot is 1028.20

  • dynamo

    To quote EWI (last night's short-term update)

    “As we’ve said, as long as $15.22 remains
    intact, the August 13 high, so too does our bearish forecast. “

    If this is breached EWI sees a slightly higher higher on a short-term basis. I have been adding longterm puts – silver's swings are violent which can be uncomfortable, which is why I only buy cheap options to play. I have SLV 13 Jan 2010 puts.

    I only have a small amount just in case silver starts to act as a poor man's crisis hedge going forward, which I doubt but must consider as a possibility.

  • SpeedSkt1

    I have weekly S1 for the SPX at 1016.93; S2, 1004.93; and S3, 993.66……the weekly pivot is 1028.20

  • Scrillhog

    Quick chart on Silver… Started building a short position here.

    http://img266.imageshack.us/img266/2386/yisilve

  • biffermas

    I believe the botton to natural gas is $0. I'll begin to scale in from there.

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    is it just me or does this feel almost EXACTLY like it did when we were are 975 right before we launched higher to 1030+…..

    bears cheerleading but not getting any more price action in their favor, bulls scared to buy the dip but still seeing green shoots.

  • grednfer

    Thats some good downside action ……SPX even having a hard time holding 1000…..thats surprizing. At least 1015…..will be resistance again.

    Love that TF …. I can't believe I caught a top (rare)…..short from 580 today.

    TZA trade is working well. Stock, short puts and long calls.

    This is truly an evil day!

  • http://twitter.com/jmarc777 J Marc

    Help. New to site. What does BTW stand for?
    Many thanks

  • moneyfarm

    Bought some SPY Nov 98 puts this am.
    Some short ideas. No position in these yet, but I'm looking for a little retrace tomorrow overall to get into some of these:
    SBUX
    LDK
    ORLY

  • Coid

    What is going on with silver?

  • Cerebro82

    Commodities stock will take it in the rectum when the dollar takes off.. Agriculture stocks are prime examples. Here are a few that have made lower lowers and look to be rolling over… Here are a a few charts…
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

    My favorite from these is POT because it not only is a momentum play but also it has the weakest looking chart already breaking under the trendline.

  • Keirsten

    By the way

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Money, I'll look at those later tonight. I have AZO on my list, but waiting for a bit of a bump first.

  • Bankrupt

    hello mole and other bears

    just went lonq NQ 1597

    see you @ 1650 brothers

  • Vardoger

    I hate dropbox but I'll give it another try. Here's the new channel:

    http://dl.getdropbox.com/u/737329/9-1channelnew

  • AudioTactics

    What is the upside target on this bounce from the bottom?

    Any views?

  • Lordted

    I see your comments Mole. Truth is I don't trade stocks and I don't trade options. I will post some charts as soon as I find something to post about of “Value”

  • molecool

    Some people now the price of everything and the value of nothing.

  • shortcover

    Looks like margin requirements will go up as of Dec 1 on the x2 and x3 levered ETFs…

  • molecool

    Inflection point – great short sell opportunity as the stop is only a few ticks away.

  • annamall

    Adding to SPY Oct. 98 puts on this bounce soon

  • http://twitter.com/jmarc777 J Marc

    Keirsten,
    Thank you
    J marc

  • annamall

    Just added another lot on EUR/USD short position @ 1.4220

  • fuw

    Ok, here is a slightly different perspective on the dollar (ie euro/usd), and me trying to do be of some use. Two timeframes (15min, 4h). We have started to take out trend lines and some horizontal resistance, but I agree with Mole that we need more to really get this going. 1.40 is the final line in the sand, but I would put a lot of significance into 1.405, since that is the area where the long term trend line comes in:

    15min
    http://www.screencast.com/t/b2Z7ZLwKX

    4h
    http://www.screencast.com/t/FqzcAuLuSXI

  • Keirsten

    You're welcome, JM. Glad to have you here.

  • Lonewolf7107

    Obama talking now. Should be a good pop to short into.

  • JoeBear

    Top short candidates: FUQI, PWRD, DTG, BIDU, SLV

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Will contribute my long-term short ideas after market closes. I think a lot of us have gotten so short-term over the course of this rally that we're glued to 1 and 5 minute charts. I also plan to look over the next few days at charts of how things generally go down in this phase of a market correction.

    You are absolutely correct that we need to get our heads up in the clear sky and take a look around.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    There are so many NEW RSI 25's today. Those stocks will stay stuck at RSI 25, so they can't help the market–so assume going long at RSI 48, ( outcome) it's going straight down to RSI 30

  • annamall

    Fuw! Love it I just added another short EUR lot πŸ˜€

  • Scrillhog
  • CaptainAnarchy

    Also POT is beloved by the red-bull drinking crowd and Cramer followers. They'll dump fast and hard, and also probably join in on the short side.

  • Lordted

    This is what I see… We last fell in August 40.4 pts on ES. We have fallen about the same so far. If we hold here we have good symetry. If we bust and go lower the symetry is broken and next level is 975. We broke a corrective pattern this morning – Patterns that break Break big time… So I expect this level not to hold. But as no one knows what is going to happen next I will trade the probabilities. We will probably bounce round here somewhere.

    http://www.screencast.com/users/Plug21/folders/

    Scuse spelling..

  • http://misinheritance.com/ misinheritance

    Here's a simple daily look of the E-Mini S&P- http://i25.tinypic.com/9vfak2.jpg

    We already broke through that last trendline, which was our support for the Y wave. I expect that to be back tested, or maybe reclaimed in the coming days.
    Below that is our Primary 2 support line. It leads to 940. By the time we get to it, it may be around 950-965, so keep that in mind.
    Also, there is some support from 980, the last daily turning point we had before that leg up to carry us definitively over 1000.

    Keep it simple guys. I expect them to bounce us up and down, the VIX may be over 40 by the end of September, so don't fall in love with the bearish side, protect yourself when you have profits so you can add puts on rallies. If you don't like selling premium, which is fine, buy ATM SPY calls to hedge your short positions. Only sell those calls on up days, and use the proceeds to buy more puts! But always have at least a few 1-2 strikes out SPY calls, just in case!!!

  • Vardoger

    Fox pointed out earlier that volume on /es highest since 7-23 with three hours left. Interesting

  • ClutchShorter

    I have the March 70 SPY PUTS too. Any reason why everyone is flocking to that specific strike?

  • moneyfarm

    Just bought some Jan 2010 13 puts. If I'm wrong, I think will know soon.

  • gusrock1414

    I am hearing from an nyc trader/bond guy contact that a rumor is circulating that a major foreign financial institution is in trouble. Just keeping ear to the ground but anyone hearing anything similar?

  • molecool

    See above…

  • molecool

    Bang That Wench.

  • molecool

    Wish the fucking spreads weren't so impossible.

  • anthem

    Gutsy :-). I would have waited for a bounce or something :-). . .

    I played with forex a bit, but just can't seem to get the same amount of returns that would make me happy as playing /ES.. . . . However, the moves in forex do appear to be a bit “smoother” than the ES – which are quite choppy recently. . .

    Since I've been on the road the last few weeks and for the next month or so, I have to take a slightly more intermediate term view until I'm back to being able to scalp.

  • annamall

    Added more Oct 98 SPY put (sold 2/3 Oct 98s earlier) just a bit ago for 2.82 (timing good) πŸ™‚

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Here's a long term short play I outlined last week — MCD.
    http://tinyurl.com/mpranw

  • fuw

    Redrew the 4h, since the long term trend line was a bit messy (small mistakes make a big difference when extrapolating). The areas 1.410-1.405 and 1.40 still stand though

    http://www.screencast.com/t/rhELy6H8Pw

  • BigIslandLife

    yes making all the blogs
    http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=8376

  • mediatik

    rumor seems to be about WFC

  • Vardoger

    If we get to 1003 there is a nice little inv H+S target 1008, which is also the 23.6% of the move down from 1037

  • rhae

    The old Diquis Log in page disaapeared, I tried logging in under comments but that only works once.
    IC Daivd Ha has a link… Others probably have same question… I will run threw it…
    I will get it fixed,
    thx

  • Count_de_Monee

    Yes, I'm hearing same rumor from my contacts. That would explain the abnormally high volume.

    Off topic: Hi everyone, I'm back from my much needed break and am sad that my puts weren't filled last friday. Off by a tick, grrrr.

    Hope everyone is doing well.

  • springheel_jack

    I'm a strong buyer of nat gas at zero.

  • moneyfarm

    Got Jan 13 SLV puts today. As your chart indicates, pretty decent risk/reward here in going short. Good luck.

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    we heard that it was WFC then we heard that it was FNM now its a foreign….how about it's the mkt dropping on overbought conditions and shitty fundamentals????? Or how about it hit the retracements that everyone was looking for??? just a thought!

  • springheel_jack

    Finally saw a buck drop in oil.

    Gold and silver strengthening which is unexpected.

  • Vardoger

    Buffett way too gangster to be first to go. European banks much more fucked imo anyways

  • Saltspring

    Ya, totally, buying zsl here.

  • Mercury2009

    1615 support was broke..1600 trendline holding as daily support. Close will be telling.
    disclosure: Spy Nov 80 300cts@0.57

  • anthem

    Yeah, my 50 SPY put contracts didn't fill by a lousy nickel either. Pissed me off…

  • annamall

    Download Google Chrome Rhae, it works perfectly!

  • annamall

    So good to see you again Count! Missed you around here! πŸ˜€

  • innatedc

    I mentioned before that they could be seen as safe havens from equities so irregardless of dollar movement people may pile in….

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    covered some 1/2 short in cable and dax..waiting for the inevitable rally to reload..:) or is that asking too much!!

    From John Mauldin
    Today's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: “I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors.” Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue.

    I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number of bad choices. But it is not just the US. Today we look at a piece from my friends at Variant Perception based on London. They are a relatively new institutional research house. I have been reading their material for some time and have begun to look very much forward to it. They do some very good in-depth analysis. I asked then to shorten a piece they did on Spain and Spanish banks for this week's Outside the Box. Spain will soon be faced with a number of very uncomfortable choices, but for now they appear in denial.

    For those interested, I also provide a link to another report they did on the United Kingdom, tax collections (way down!) and the link to UK gilts (or bonds). It seems they also have a problem with issuing too much debt. http://www.variantperception.com/sites/default/

    I have highlighted problems in Japan and with the European banking system. The problem from the credit crisis are world wide. To think they are not interconnected would be naivetΓ© in the extreme. What happens in Japan and Spain and the US will affect your part of the world, some more than others. Today, let's look at Spain, which has as many unsold hoes but at one-sixth of the population, and these homes are on the books of banks at full price. I will let you read about the rest of the future train wreck that is Spain from Variant Reception (http://www.variantperception.com which has some other interesting sample commentary as well).

    Choices indeed.

    John Mauldin, Editor
    Outside the Box

    ADVERTISEMENT

    Spain: The Hole In Europe's Balance Sheet

    Dives sum, si non reddo eis quibus debeo.
    I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors.

    Titus Maccius Plautus (c. 254-184 BCE), “Curculio”

    Themes
    Spain = Japan 2.0? – We argue that 1) the real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, 2) Spanish banks are hiding their losses, and 3) investors are smoking crack if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in Europe, (see Forbes latest Spanish Banks In Top Form). If all these are true, Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan.

    Banks are hiding losses – We believe that Spanish banks are not marking their real estate loans to market and are extending credit to zombie construction companies. They do this by 1) Getting a boost from accounting changes, 2) Not marking loans to market, 3) Continued lending to zombie companies, 4) Extending 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans, and other bubble-like lending practices. We look at each of these in turn.

    Spain is in deflation – In a deflationary environment, servicing debt becomes even harder. Even when rates go to zero the real burden of debt goes up. That is why deflation is such a terrible thing. Eastern Europe, Spain and Ireland are now all experiencing the beginning of deflation. We believe that we will see much more deflation to come, which will have broad ramifications across the European banking sector.

    Who's holding the bag? – The periphery countries are net debtors, and the rest of Europe is the net creditor. When a debtor can't pay, the creditor suffers. Germany, France and others will need to cope with recapitalizing the periphery and Spain.

    May be the catalyst for dollar strength…and even relative cable strength

  • Count_de_Monee

    Hi Anna,

    It's good to see you to. Looking lovely as always. I hope you've been banking some coin.
    Since I'm so busy at work, and after losing so much this first semester day trading, I've reverted back to what works best for me: long term bets on the market via OTM puts 6 months out. That way I don't have to check the market all the time and I don't overtrade. I'm looking to load up on SPY puts if we get a spike up and then I'll ignore the markets for awhile.

  • innatedc

    Count buddy good to see you….hope you've been priming the account for this move….how's the countess?

  • Count_de_Monee

    I don't think we're gonna get the usual afternoon rally this time. The market seems to be scared and the heavy volume means institutions are unloading into the rips IMO. Too bad as I'd like to load up on puts.

    Also hearing all kinds of rumors on China telling IBs to screw themselves with some OTC derivatives and hedge funds blowing up. Who knows if it's true but the character of the markets appears to be changing.

  • Vardoger

    Yup, that's the big news Monee. China told them to fuck off. No bueno for the banks. Things are about to get very interesting in September.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Last hour now. Expect the games to begin. I think i'm going to watch….

  • BigIslandLife

    Rumor up date on bank in trouble
    Might be hedge fund

    http://www.businessinsider.com/cerberus-stop-wh

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Foreign seems more realistic than WFC. After all, our gov't has pulled out all the stops to make sure large banks stay propped up. Other countries may not have, and may not be in a position to.

    Nobody seems to know so most of the money seems to be piling into FAZ. None of the banks I watch seem to be giving any signals.

    At the same time, with lots of people crowding in on a rumor…. Could be an epic short squeeze.

  • Count_de_Monee

    Good to see you too. I missed you all.
    The countess is fine. She just took the little ones to buy shoes and I'm loving the peace and quiet.

    I see disqus has had a facelift. Too bad it keeps asking me to log in each time I want to reply to a comment. What a pain.

  • Saltspring

    Unsold hoes? Man, that's bad!

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Sept. 01 historical events.
    Aaron Burr was acquitted of treason by a circuit court in Richmond, Virginia, on the grounds that he was not present when an overt act was committed, 1807

    The city of Atlanta, Georgia was evacuated by Confederate forces commanded by General John B. Hood, 1865

    World War II began with the Nazi invasion of Poland, 1939

    Japan's formal surrender ending WW II, 1945 ( September 2 in Tokyo due to time change)

    The Wreck of the Titanic found of the coast of Newfoundland, 1985

  • PRSGuitars

    The contact I've got suggests UBS… can't say more until I get more info…

  • springheel_jack

    Link didn't work. This one refers to it though:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/rumor-panic-has-

  • peder1001

    am i the only one with puts on C?

  • Douala

    If I hadn't seen mole's picture the other day, then the guy in this video I would of thought was him, based on how he can use the F word in so many different ways. This poor trader is losing his life savings. At least speed it up to the 3:25 mark and watch it to 3:55, this is where he BLOWS a gasket. Mmmmm wonder if this is Lester?

    http://tinyurl.com/a8f7ss

  • annamall

    Thanks Count! yes today especially…trading FX now and love that. I know sometimes it is easy to overtrade, I have done it too many times. but glad to see you back with us again! πŸ™‚

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    wave v of 1 for the close today or open tomorrow? which will it be???

  • annamall

    Try using Chrome (Google) or can you log into Disqus home page then go to ES. ??

  • annamall

    Try using Chrome (Google) or can you log into Disqus home page then go to ES. ??

  • holdctrp

    Mole, I would be so much surprised that if we do another pushup to 1040-1050 area. Today's drop is quite some surprise to both Bulls and Bears and I believe that the MM already trapped quite some bulls by this sharp drop. It would be beyond my understanding for MM to pump again to free the little bulls. On the other hand, the POPO auction magic worked quite well for the past few months, and is it still going to work this time?

    Thanks.

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Current drop looks more convincing than the one ending 8-17-09.

  • Vardoger

    JPM is key. double bottom intraday, same lod as yesterday. If she cracks it's on. heavy weight

  • Darkthirty

    Counting c of 4 now, tank into the close?

  • MJSgl

    I'm thinking about it.

  • dullmind

    See above, but enable third party cookies. I have not had problems, but turns out that I had Firefox set to allow
    third party cookies all along, that may be why I never had problems. In Firefox its <edit><prefreences><privacy>

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    tru dat

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    something tells me d, e will last the day and we gap down again tomorrow

  • dullmind

    Hello Anna, does Google chrome allow third party cookies by default? Perhaps that why it works?

  • Anonymous

    Ok thinking about riding down BAC. Want to buy some Feb 10 puts at .33 and watch the money come in for the next 6 months. Anyone oppose ?

  • Darkthirty

    I hate holding overnight in this game. Looking for 1005 minimum for c

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Yah For True.

  • annamall

    that video was priceless, I have felt just like that Douala! ROTFLMAO hahahahahah

  • thunda72

    What if they use the POMO funds to buy puts? πŸ˜‰

  • annamall

    Last sweep for the MM's ? I am holding SPY puts Oct99.98's and march 70's

  • fuw

    I would be very careful with short-term shorts right now.

  • 9orchids

    I missed the picture. When was it posted?

  • BigIslandLife

    yeah too funny that could have been him before his T/A skills where perfected
    while on the site you missed this one for a YOGA class for all the guys on the blog LOL
    http://www.break.com/cute-girls/sexy-girls-doin

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    XLF making new lows

  • BigIslandLife

    posted on the slope over the weekend use his archives for Friday I think it was

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Just a reminder, XLF magic fib at $13.95 — took partial profits just now @ 14.04, tightening stop on the rest.

  • Darkthirty

    short for the close

  • annamall

    oh yea Var! πŸ˜€

  • Douala

    annamall…don't tell anyone …but me too…

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    now that was a nice long red candle

  • Lonewolf7107

    Fujisan. Your thesis is looking great, although about 4 days early (shame on you). 980 will be key. Have a strange feeling that we might just cut right through it. Haven't seen this type of down volume in a while. Something smells fishy here. We could get a real gap down tomorrow based on the action going into the close.

    Holding October 97 SPY puts.

  • onorio

    Head fake, IMO rally till the close. Expect 1008-1013 tomorrow, great spot to shor again πŸ˜€

  • amokta

    simpleton question : when you buy spy march puts '65' or '70' – what are these numbers – they are the strike price i take it. well if an option starts making money when market price falls below strike price then why not buy spy march '100', as thats more certain to make money than mar 65 – am i missing something here?

  • Vardoger

    That strange feeling is greed. I got it too. Covering at trendline 980 and rising FWIW

  • Douala

    But the opening said “Stuff 4 Dudes” so I passed because a Dude I'm not. πŸ˜‰

  • MJSgl

    And so it begins…

    Alert! Non-traditional Exchange-traded funds and notes (ETFs and ETNs) are no longer eligible for margin although purchases are permitted in your account. In addition, new or opening transactions in options for non-traditional ETFs/ETNs and short sales in non-traditional ETFs/ETNs will be prohibited in WellsTrade accounts beginning September 1st, 2009. This is in response to concerns raised by regulators about the complexity and high-risk nature of these securities which require daily monitoring. For more information go to http://www.finra.org/Investors/ProtectYourself/Investo...>

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    STD puts look inexpensive….banco santander…..spain's biggest bank and most levered!

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    updated alpha chart, looks like my first target for iii about to be reached. if this is the extent, then here are some fibs to concentrate on for tomorrow
    http://www.screencast.com/users/alphahorn/folde

  • http://fatratbastard.com standard_and_poor

    Started small position in uyg dec 5.00 puts.

  • Saltspring
  • anotherone

    Mole, you might want to consider moving out of CA.

    Canadians halt options trading for California residents due to unpaid bills
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/canadians-halt

  • Anonymous

    thanks – hence my basic questions (im more used to simpe stock buying, but want to make something in a falling market hence options (at least buying puts is safer than futures, or selling options)

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    dip buyers beware….

  • BigIslandLife

    that i am aware of post was for the guys, but it is harmless just a yoga class that I added to your great video you found Aloha

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    hmm.. I kept talking to an empty telephone in the old post section πŸ™
    you left me there all alone and scared πŸ™

  • molecool

    They can run but they can't hide.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Aha here it is (via across the curve)

    Apparently the subject of the rumor is the Corus Bank in Chicago.I had never heard of the entity but apparently they are quite troubled institution.

    The firm’s chief accounting officer quit today. There is also a story that the firm missed a regulatory filing several weeks ago and is in danger of stock market delisting.

    The bank is a financial basket case and has been for quite some time. This should not be a market moving story.

  • anotherone

    Oh my. Don't touch any options product at all, on anything until you do a lot of reading about what options are and how they react to the underlying's price movement.

  • Lonewolf7107

    Great trades Anna. Those SPY 98s should be smokin in the coming week. GL

  • anotherone

    Thanks for the link. I'm scarfing lunch right now and didn't have time to track one down for amokta.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    T.K. said it right

    JERKS!

  • annamall

    I loved the blues brothers! that clip is priceless!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    not today

  • Tronacate

    Very nice seeing this move on “good” manufacturing data.
    Guess the BDI isn't lying after all.

  • MJSgl

    We keep breaching, just barely, LOD on SPX and then popping back up last 10 min or so…something's gotta give…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just curious if anyone went long SRS based on IYR chart I posted on Sunday night?

  • rhae

    mentioned earlier about worried hedge fund managers… just for a test

  • Tronacate

    Think abc here on $DXY then continue up for the buck. Should start up again into the close

  • molecool

    And so it begins…

  • annamall

    Maybe my 989 today we'll see. πŸ˜€

  • MayDaze

    Calculated Risk has been all over Corus. If, you're interested, take a look and then do a site search on Corus Bank.

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/07/corus

  • bdf72

    Man…this feels like working cattle when I was a kid on the farm…making steers out of bulls.

  • AS2009

    Alpha – based on reaching 995 … the fibs are where you expect a bounce too – am I reading this right ?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    pardon me
    “Woo-fucking-hoo”

  • Douala

    DavidDT
    I have been holding SRS for a while now. I must of missed your chart Sunday. I take it SRS is about to move now based on your chart, correct?

  • annamall

    I think this is the beginning of a juicy sell off! So glad we are all juiced up Molester!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    still 980 target even based on 2.74
    and strong support 996 SPX

  • bshah

    Does anyone here think, it may bounce up a bit tomorrow to support Fuji's theory and to scare the hell out of us bears..?

  • jamesmarkii

    bounce from 996 to 1008/1013
    ?

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Yeah I've been reading it. Corus is kind of old news though. I mean if this drop is fueled by the rumors of a bank failure people are bound to be disappointed. Corus was already circling the drain.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    went 100% short last Wednesday (http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/2009/08/spoke-i-l…)

    feel like this today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlfKdbWwruY

  • MJSgl

    ruh roooohhhh…look at that green candle

  • TheCrowe

    are we going to close in the green?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SPX just printed w5 – BOUNCE

  • CaptainAnarchy

    Yeah mole didn't put up the “new post” post like he usually does.

    Or maybe disqus ate it?

  • onorio

    Someone call the marines?

    Pls just give me 1010 tomorow so i can reload puts πŸ˜€

  • biffermas

    Here comes an attempted “stick save” into the close to save SPX 1000.

  • biffermas

    Here comes an attempted “stick save” into the close to save SPX 1000.

  • molecool

    That was the first attempt – so far it's getting sold.

  • Keirsten

    That gap down there did not get filled either.

  • Tronacate

    Hi!

  • annamall

    Added more SPY march 70s on this bounce, but I say the bears are just silly not to grab this opportunity. πŸ˜‰

  • molecool

    This is significant – if this attempt gets sold it'll all go to shit.

  • Keirsten

    Isn't that special.. they're trying to save 1000

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^^working a bull…..lol

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    cubes yet have to complete w5 down – tomorrow morning on lower open (IF) I'll be net long

  • Tronacate

    After-hours should be interesting

  • onorio

    What, no more BULLshit?

  • annamall

    I just reloaded on that bounce of 155 whooo hooooooooooooooooooooo

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    SPX closes below 1000 lol weeeeeeeeeeee

  • springheel_jack

    As EOD ramps go, that was pathetic. Next stop 980.

  • itsgold

    wow the volume on the SPy

  • MJSgl

    Yep, look at those RR candles…

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    Monday morning was perfect entry (chart on my site – I am getting tired cross posting πŸ™‚

  • itsgold

    Wouldn't be surprised if we see 1021 again.

  • dullmind

    I to missed the chart, but have been long SRS for weeks.

  • ckeltner

    *grins* I was just thinking to myself

    noooo, must have 4 digits. The pain of 3 digits would be to much to bear…haha

  • centerline

    close under 1000 a psycological hit to the bull at this point. tomorrow morning should be interesting.

  • ckeltner

    Yes laughing at my own pun is lame but thats me

  • Tronacate

    I sunk the spurs into a few crude contracts short and rode them for all they were worth…….good day

  • annamall

    That's why I call them Bullshitos!

  • springheel_jack

    Vix closed over 29.

  • Keirsten

    Agrhhhh, I was one point off this morning at 997. Welcome to 973 world next.

  • annamall

    We will have to wait Tronacate, but soon. πŸ™‚

  • springheel_jack

    Way to go alpha. You nailed it.

  • Tronacate

    Whatsup with gold today? Strong looking…..big time

  • rhae

    you still get an A+ for effort

  • dullmind

    I have already grabbed all the options that I can afford, mostly Dec though…..
    Are you saying I should do a Lester and borrow money I need to live and by more?
    Hmmmmmmmmmmm……………….

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Looks like you hit on those SLV puts today!

  • MJSgl

    Breaking through three weeks resistance on Globex right now

  • Keirsten

    Hey- as long as everybody makes money, this is a group effort with everybody pulling together. πŸ˜‰

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    it WILL
    we are in w1 (confirmed) – w2 ideally retraces 62% (if less – that will be one hell of a bearish confirmation)
    also, IF we are to start W5 UP – prior highs WILL be taken out
    http://screencast.com/t/F7ikONekOz

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    it' in a triangle and could break up and out of it before it sells off

  • Keirsten

    LOL. And I was trying to imitate the sound of the Church Lady when I said it.

  • fuw

    Well, that got smacked back down. The dollar not “confirming” the final move down though.

  • ckeltner

    Nice, didn't catch that + 1

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    yeah, but i think we're going lower now. there is plenty of meat on the bone for wave 5 yet. i'll update this chart tomorrow. once we're finished with wave 1 we'll retrace 50-61% of this move down

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Well we had our correction. Now SPX can go to 1200 lol

  • Keirsten

    You should know my sarcasm after all this time. LOL I hope you did well today CK- this has been one long journey!

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^^^^^^^Amen to that

  • annamall

    Hey Dull,no I would never borrow to trade, that is not a good thing IMHO. also the stress on you to be right is enormous. I took profits on my F short and bought more SPY puts. and also unhedged my long MA earlier this morning so that gave me more cash to play with. πŸ™‚

  • Squidman

    Did you take the CMG short?

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    i posted yesterday that the first week of P1 the SPX pulled back 4.2%, which is the same thus far this week. there's still meat on the bone for wave v of 1. can't wait for wave 2 to reload!!!

  • Tronacate

    ^^^^^^^^^now that's funny

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    I'm kicking myself for closing my Sept bear put spread on IWM 55/53 this morning for breakeven. Woulda put my account up like 6% today, instead I'm down 6% with nothing to show for myself. Blahhhhh

    still so much indecision in the market. until we see 970 im not going to nail the coffin shut on the bulls

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Stay tuned, because the index and index ETF options are still trading…

  • Trader_Steve

    I didn't see the chart but it's a national outreage what has gone on with REITS. Too long to bore people with.

    As to SRS…that sure looks like every formation I wondered about covering shorts of anything with and regretted not buying later.

    Steve

  • Tronacate

    Ok……..got a few NDX contracts green……..relax tonite and close out……..or be a greedy pig and hold them for a possible panic sell=off tomorrow?

  • bshah

    Do you guys know of a site where I can find Options historical price for today ? I had order for SPY's 100 Call to be sold at 2.43 and in last few minutes I thought we crossed 100.53 on SPY and yet my order didn't get filled.. I called IB CS and he says, last was 2.40.. thanks,

  • http://www.facebook.com/screasy v8muscle

    Dollar still hasnt broken the long term trend. veeeery very close though…
    http://screencast.com/t/H5USIqqqrB

  • annamall

    What would be nice if we gap down to 989 before bouncing tomorrow! If so I will take off Octobers. and buy on bounce.
    watching the EUR carefully tonight. See you all later! have a great night! Off to the gym!

  • Keirsten

    I did, and it's not done. πŸ˜€ Did you get into that one at all Squiddy?

  • Keirsten

    YAY!!! Roubini's back in town!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Enjoy Anna! πŸ™‚

  • Count_de_Monee

    Well that was fun. Now if the rumor doesn't confirm we have a bunch of loaded shorts ready for a big squeeze, hopefully to 950 so I can load up.

  • Vardoger

    What is the 973 target?

  • Douala

    alphahorn

    Will you be posting an updated wave count tonight on your web site? So far you have been on the $$$ on your counts. Good job! +1

  • AS2009

    David – trying to get this straight …

    SPX – we are in P3 – with W1 confirmed, and W2 expected to retrace 62% of the move down ..

    The chart of QQQQ you posted – where are you expecting W5 to go ?

  • Keirsten

    Cya later Sistah- sorry about IM, it fizzled on me.

  • AS2009

    What would you look at as another entry point ?

  • Trader_Steve

    Having felt like one of the broken toys in “The Land of Misfit Toys” in “Rudolph the Red Nose Reindeer” so often as I sit and wait but I don't get to go, let me point out that I see we are right now on a line when you draw some parallel lines off the tops we are at.

    This is “match point” and while I know this mkt is 2-3x overvalued I don't expect them to give up easily. Are we on good terms with China for tomorrow to get therm to intervene? I ask as one can count this as a ZZ C wave and I even have trouble with that first “5” being 3 waves only. .

    If we break hard tomorrow I can see it as easy sailing. I am only 30% short and listened to mole as I suspect he wants some more convincing action here too. But I'm the new guy here so I don't prretend to speak for him…that's jusst as guess as to why he suggested possibly covering some stuff.

    It would be folly to forget that they held this mkt at every point they needed to and that they would just surrender it. An event might force them to, but call it being hit too many times with the stun gun to make me feel great yet. I'm prefering to sell an a-b-c rally on a lower tomorrow rather than be 100% short tonight. But I did load up on some AIG calls as that looks like a ZZ up and it will find that “reality bites.”

    Opinions welcomed.

    Steve

  • AS2009

    Great πŸ™‚ Thank you !!

  • TheMacroEconomist

    Yes but a “squeezed” Roubini, lol!

    The new Disqus software doesn't handle the sizing box right. It insists on resizing the whole picture. πŸ˜‰

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    sure

  • Keirsten

    Change that to 974, Var. I'm tracking the July low and most recent high, but I have four different Fib set-ups on my chart. I still see a lot of support/supply in that 992 range though, so I'll be watching that tomorrow either way. Did I thank you again about HIG? I think I did, but let me say it one more time… THANK YOU VAR!

  • Tronacate

    A little more info on BAC……….in addition to the bad real estate loans, they are stuffing repoed biz-jets into vacant Minneapolis hangers like sardines. They are still booking the value of these jets at double what they are worth right now. I don't have any exact numbers but at 30-60 mil a pop they add up faster than houses.

    Airlines are mothballing jets in Douglas AZ in droves.

  • Trader_Steve

    Count de Monee?…”The people are revolting!”

    Steve

  • Keirsten

    Squiddy- I should add that I take more aggressive trades/entries on some of those, but I would never encourage anyone else to do the same.

  • Count_de_Monee

    “it's good to be the king”

  • Count_de_Monee

    You ladies are getting better avatars everyday. I'm going to have to reach deep and find a sexy one myself.

  • LegendC

    Seriously I would not be surprised, I'm really starting to see today as a beartrap…it felt too easy.

  • Tronacate

    Hard to fight the goobermints. I was a little surprised at the strength of the selloff in light of the ISM data. All things considered there should be ample time to get on board the real deal instead of getting in a big hurry and running out of money.
    I've tested my sphincter too many times earlier this year to get too excited and bet the farm.

  • http://colechambers.com Cole Chambers

    Are you rats evil enough to ride this thing to the downside? All I see is cheer leading and hand clapping over a few handles to the downside. This is nothing!

    lol, classic Mole.

  • Trader_Steve

    Close….go to time 5:50 for the response to that line. LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGAgu6zI9v0

    Steve

  • Trader_Steve

    I'd like to bet BIG money that Summers called Roubini a few weeks ago and said, Nouriel, throw us a bone” and he backed off his call of new low. Then a few days later he sat with Nassim Taleb (“Black Swan”) on CNBC as Nassim said “The patient has cancer, it said it had a headache, we treated the headache, and it still has cancer.”

    NR – Neutered Roubini.

    Steve

  • annamall

    Quick update on EUR looking for target of 1.4172 (take off 1) second target 1.4128 (take off all)

  • Squidman

    I did not take it but I enjoy just as much watching your success Love. I will be piling on GS though–that will be a fun party!

  • Douala

    BigIslandLife

    I must say that was some yoga class…. I bet you and mole would sign up for that one…uh? πŸ˜‰

  • Squidman

    I did not take it but I enjoy just as much watching your success Love. I will be piling on GS though–that will be a fun party!

  • Douala

    BigIslandLife

    I must say that was some yoga class…. I bet you and mole would sign up for that one…uh? πŸ˜‰