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Do You Believe in Santa?

65

Do You Believe in Santa?

Do You Believe in Santa?

by MoleDecember 7, 2011

Well, this is Volar, and I think I may be back sooner than latter.

I have not been around much for obvious reasons, but also, I have been buried in China research and at a few conferences.

In any case, I do not have much to show, but some charts caught my eye. Every Christmas ARCA and PHLX call buyers show up… and did they yesterday…

I do not have much of an opinion on anything right now, but figured I could at least drop some stuff by for the rats.

So first lets look at OCC (all equity options) calls – puts.

This is not predictive- it just shows that seasonality is hard to fight.

Also, given that I am lazy, SentimenTrader, did a nice piece on small options traders.

Little bastards are not bullish are they….

Also the implied correlation index is STILL high…

And seasonality.

Talk about textbook….

Ok the last chart is a play I am in in DEC 12 Corn Options…. I think IV is breaking out…. and it should top near the report in January.

I should get back into things shortly- but keep in mind that I do not have much of a conviction on anything.

Have a great holiday and bank coin.

Best of ~~luck~~, unbiased trading,

-Volar

About The Author

Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.

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**Disclaimer** The information provided on this website, while timely, colorful, and accurate, is not to be taken as financial, legal, tax, psychological or any type of advise. The purpose of this website is to track the progressions of human herd psychology as it is reflected through several financial markets. Any commentary on this page, however useful it may be, is used for illustration, and to inspire thought provoking discussion, and not to be taken as specific trade recommendations. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
We are not endorsing any site or service, nor are we promoting choice examples as real-life trades. If it sounds sarcastic, it probably is and if it offends you, just don't read it. There are tremendous inherent risks in attempting to trade any market using any vehicle, particularly if it is leverage. Please contact your broker to explain all risks involved in the vehicle you will be trading and any questions you may have. Please consult with your own financial advisor before you tempt fate by following our evil speculation.

**Risk Disclosure** Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.”

**Hypothetical Performance Disclosure** Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.”

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