Now Reading
Domiciled in a Functionally-Challenged Chronometer
318

Domiciled in a Functionally-Challenged Chronometer

by The MoleMarch 10, 2010

by gmak

The Chief Economist for the SEC has resigned when, after finding that short selling increased when stock prices went UP, the SEC imposed rules to hobble those evil speculators (heh) anyway. At the same time, the market was goosed yesterday by rumours, innuendo, and rumours about rumours. Cash at fund managers is at one of the lowest levels ever – yet in the absence of sellers, it appears that the market will drift up like a dandelion seed on the breeze.

Cisco announces the next generation of the internet – as if it will make any difference when the fat files won’t squeeze through the small pipe into my house. I guess Algos are more gullible that J6P, now, as the bid under that stock intensified.

China is thinking of raising interest rates. Japan’s machine orders fell 3.7% MoM. This is certainly a dirty finger in the eye of the economic recovery.

Meanwhile, closer to home, occupants of 32 story condo towers in Florida are tired of living alone in the building and want out. Maybe Fannie and Freddie can take them over, securitize them, and use the Treasury to sell them to the same clowns who will be rushing in to scoop up Citi, Fannie and Freddie shares that supposedly the .gov now wants to unload within 3 months. They know what will happen when the slosh dries up. Three months, boys and girls, three months. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u2mqqCMu-LM

[Hint: When will the middle class awake from their slumber to find all the wealth is sitting in the commodes of Wall Street and their masters, Alex.]

“The smallest movement in the price of a security”. “Oral communication between human beings”. “A small blood-sucking arachnid”. “An abbreviation for Theory of Constraints”.

EQUITY

SPX, overbought pastiche of a fading economic empire, has left another interesting symbol on my doorstep called a “bar”.  I have labeled my daily SPX chart with the bar codes. Note that I changed the divisions along the bar (expressd as a ratio to the high minus low)  to 0% – 8% – 38.2% – 50% – 62.8% – 76.4% – 92% – 100%; each interval still numbered from 1 to 7. The number is expressd as Open – Close, so a ’17’ means opened at the low and closed at the high.

Here is the frequency distribution:

As one can see, the most frequent bar type is where the open and close are at opposite ends of the bar, with the bullish bar being more frequent than the bearish bar. This is no surprise since the data history begins in 1982 when the FED first discovered how to use the liquidity faucet.

Yesterday was a ’24”.  The highest probability is that today would be either a 16, 17 or 71. Again, no surprise given the above table.  This is somewhat disconcerting as it indicates that it would not be easy to play intraday on the assumption that direction doesn’t matter – i.e. that both the high and the low would be far enough from the open to permit an “agnostic” trade and still make money within the high – low range.

The best setup for this would be an open in the 3 – 5 levels on the bar. yet this only happens 28% of the time. For now, pending further analysis, the agostiic trade does not have good odds.

In other probability news, SPX has been above the 55 DMA for 6 days, not counting the one where it crossed over. The highest probability is that SPX crosses back below the DMA by the end of the 10th day. There are only 4 days left counting today. Given the average move of the daily SPX, it is still feasible. If we don’t get there, the probability goes up that there will be more than another week before the cross below would occur (assuming that it occurs at all in the short term).

 Asia was mixed, with emerging mainly red, and developed mainly green (Japan and Australia were red – does this mean the risk trade is on or off? It’s hard to keep track anymore). Europe is mainly green but barely and without breadth. The DAX did not gap today and is stuck in a narrow range peaking around 5900.  Materials, Utilities, Financials, Telecomm are green. Seems like a kind of conservative trade based on inflation expectations, no?

ES was stuck in a tight range overnight, as well. The neutral pivot at 1139 was a solid floor and the range was no more than 3 – 4 points, most happening at the Europe open forward.  There is what appears to be strong TD resistance at 1142.75 and it has been there all night (price exhaustion for those keeping score).  Volumes in ES have been declining since the peak in theJan / Feb sell off.  ES Pivots:

  • R2: 1152.75 = Would be a new high. I still think this needs to wait for OPEX week.
  • R1: 1146.50 = This could be a perceived base camp for the assault on the Jan. high.  It is within striking distance. The longer SPX stays above the 55 DMA, the more likely it could be.
  • Neutral: 1139 = The floor right now, with an underthrow around the Europe open.
  • S1: 1133 = Would be nice for the bears. Without the ramp into the close yesterday, this would be the target for today.
  • S2: 1125.50 = Always a bridesmaid…..

FX

The EUR was tightly range bound all night until into the Europe open (my P/L thanks the EUR profusely). The floor until then was the neutral pivot at 1.3591.  It bounced off of the S1 pivot at 1.3548 amid rumours of CB bids starting to stack up below that. Right now, the R1 pivot at 1.3646 does not look like it will be in play, given the offers between here and there (for the time being).

The CAD is still holding its strength, although flat since midnight. The JPY is weaker, and above 90 again. This should be no surprise given the BoJ jawboning about underpinning the currency trade again. The GBP is weaker since midnight (hey, we need a point of reference in a 24 hour market). 

I really have become partial to the bollinger play on the EUR. I also like the agnostic play  = pick a spot in the middle of the volatility and a “coin toss” direction – probably best if it is in the direction of the broad trend. Put on the trade. Even if it goes against you, the EUR always seems to come back to that middle point and go the other way at least once in a 12 hour period.

NEWS

Greece  crisis is over. It must be true. Prodi says so (former EC president). He’s gotta be impartial, right? Global confidence dips due to Greece. Guess the sheep aren’t falling in line anymore. Emerging Market stocks are now in the green for 2010. Buyout firms can’t find anything to buy with $503 bb of Investor cash burning a whole in their collective pockets. Hint: the FED wants to sell Citi, Fannie, and Freddie crap.

Mfg in the UK “unexpectedly” plunges. Pundits are so deaf and blind. Do they wake up a find their spouses “unexpectedly” beside them in bed? Sex ends at 70 for most Americans due to poor health. Clearly the researchers didn’t interview couples with newborns.

DATA

MBA morgage applications were up 0.5%. Maybe those lonely Florida condo residents will get some company. If they plan it right, the two sets of lit windows can look like eyes on the building.

10AM = WHolesale inventories – this is an important number given all the attention to GDP growth. This should show what is driving it decisively and possibly reveal that the emperor has no clothes.

Cheers.

 

UPDATE:

The comments from DIsqus are NOT loading for me, so I am unable to present additional information, nor respond to comments. Suffice to say, the chart above is basic. The left hand column shows where the open is on the High – Low range. The top row shows where the Close is on the High – low range. An open and close at the low and high of the day would be a 17. The values in each cell show the percent occurence of that bar in the data series.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Nightwind

    Good post Gmak, but I don't completely understand your matrix. Is it possible to show like a bar graph of it? It has to be simple for me w/ pictures : )

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Gmak, apreciation is displayed regarding information sharing.

    Incertitude arises on scenario forecast.

  • Gold_Gerb

    gmak, so if I add up all the percentages in your matrix, I should achieve 100%, correct?

  • johnny

    appreciate ur work , but bit difficult to comprehend

  • fuw

    gmak, how do you get that 16, 17 or 71 are of highest probability for the day? From reading your matrix I find that 17, 27 and 72 have the highest probability. Are you basing your statement on some conditioning that you are not showing?

  • johnny

    looks like white house operators still hving their breakfast

  • Schwerepunkt

    TRIN is totally bullish. 0.25.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    either it breaks soon or it won't (ma and slow stochastics crossover prety soon)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    first refusal of crossover, bear case still in play

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    but 1145 seems likely

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    we NEED >= 1145.25 /es intraday

  • johnny

    theres nothing to think in this market , it moves up in first 30 min , then is flat for 5 hrs , after that it closes up 5 handles or closes flat

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    very soon

  • johnny

    because its a managed mkt , u may apply any theory u know but it'll keep frustrating everyone.

  • johnny

    fx traders feel the same pain when they trade aussie

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Looks like everything is setting up for the 10am report.

  • Schwerepunkt

    10:00 AM ET. Jan Wholesale Trade

    Inventories (expected +0.2%: previous -0.8%)

  • johnny

    i think inventory news is not going to hv any impact on this juggernaut

  • Schwerepunkt

    Watching VIX. 16.26 was the low on Dec. 22, 2009.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Maybe not, the flat trading just makes it seem like there's going to be a spike in one direction or the other, and it will likely coincide with some report release. I'm not convinced that the report has anything to do with said spike, but it just seems like it happens a lot.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    seems like the black choppers heard you….

  • alexdg

    Sad but true, atleast for the last >20 sessions.

  • alexdg

    Came in at -0.2%. Which will be given a bullish twist. 😉

  • Schwerepunkt

    Bulls win again!

  • MMM___Soylent

    Apparently, news doesn't matter!

  • alexdg

    AIG up +12% again. Fannie Mae +4%.

  • alexdg

    C up 3.5%.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    same as last one, increased profitability, lean mean money making machines

  • Schwerepunkt

    Where is the MFer behind the curtain, pulling the levers and making pronouncements about his greatness? Who in their right mind would buy that shit? AIG is up 50% in March. This will not end well, but it seems I will not profit by it.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    MBI up 3.1%, 5.7

  • alexdg

    +47% in 1 week! all based on rumors: SEC short sale banning and Government to sell stake in 3 months.
    “obvious explaination… short squeeze” Faber Report.

  • alexdg

    Nice! good going.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok, you got it

  • MMM___Soylent

    gmak,
    I love the new format. I am glad you finally got rid of the Broken Clock and all of that tedious “Tick, Tock, Tick, Tock” bit.
    …By the way, what is a chronometer? And a blood sucking arachnid for that matter? 😉

    I think your candle mapping is fairly straight forward. Perhaps those who are struggling to grasp it have been staying up all night trading ES. After some shuteye and a cup of coffee I bet it will all make sense. Thank you for your work.

  • johnny

    ok guys see u all after 5 hrs as dow is done for the day

  • roncofooddehydrator

    FAS finally made a move and its up. Still waiting for FAZ to hit that 10% below 30 EMA (currently 14.78, but moves down about 8 cents every 2 hours) to buy.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    now might be goodshort scalp (or more)

  • MMM___Soylent

    Huge volume today, but so far, only moderate price action.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ramp works best on AH or low volime days

  • skynard

    Yep, possible fakeout.

  • texpresso

    HRBN huge beat and raise, building a nice bull flag at the moment after gapping up 3.40. plenty of room to run, expecting EPS ~3.20 this year

  • Schwerepunkt

    My alarms are going off. ES at new post -meltdown High.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    if anyone want to throw up – now is as good time as ever :)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIMwMsY0ndo

    (WARNING – mature language from immature trader)

  • http://spychart.net spycharter

    Optimum place to short right here at new highs

  • bobthehorse

    Just went shorter again @1147.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    ok ladies and rats of both genders

    we're close to the 1147.5 10:30's minitop

    you know the drill? half an hour retracement, half an hour to put in a new top

    if 11:30's>10:30's it's an up day

  • johnny

    usd-cad has been literally gang raped

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    lets just get over with this silly market…it is dead.. just does not know about it

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    is it calling for help or enjoying it?

  • skynard

    Think it's time to rip the bulls a new a$$ now, what do ya think?

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    may be next time I have to be careful what I ask for

  • bobthehorse

    the market's not silly, it's just going up that's all. I am pretty relaxed – odds here are very good for a short. doesn't mean it's a guarantee but over time, if you sell at these set-ups you'll make money. If I am wrong I'll lose some money and move on.

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    as far as I care Mossberg 500 is sitting right next to me – just in case of “invasion”

  • Tronacate

    Russel is going pure apeshit…….

  • texpresso

    NQ will be up 3% for the year if it hits 1921, that is where i will start thinking short

  • texpresso

    TNA as well

  • Schwerepunkt

    The funny thing is, the DOW was around 12K at the time. It dropped to 6.5K. maybe he blew his brains out.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    yes, it was kind of a “fuck me!” moment

  • bananaben

    You really get the feeling that they are trying to run out every last little short. Thank god I got out yesterday of the SRS & FAZ at relative highs. I am adding to BGZ only now and I will not touch the others until a major decline/trend change is confirmed.

  • bobthehorse

    don't, you'll just end up getting in at a level that guarantees getting squeezed. Get short on extensions up, not extensions down.

  • alessiov

    we most likely made the high of the day, market tends to top out for day when cumulative tick reaches 430-450 area. fyi, just started using this about 2 weeks ago.

    http://screencast.com/t/ZWI5NjEz

  • Nightwind

    spx m/m = 1154, dow lagging

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    in my DeMark-ian land (which was way better before Tom started to cooperate with FEDs)
    today every single possible (most of them anyways)
    perfected Sell Setups on Bar8 (tomorrow might be or might NOT be bar 9)

    also, extension by QQQQ of wave 5 was expected in a way – A/B never printed during Feb drop)

    lets all be like FA_Q – not to worry about being 40% down

  • bobthehorse

    chances of tomorrow not being a 9 very low.

  • bananaben

    You're right – I think it's best just to stay away from those two altogether and just stick to the major index shorts. The squeezes are much, much more benign. It's also cheaper and easier to manage one position. I do expect it will turn between here and 1250 by Sept/Oct.

  • Tronacate

    I guess STU will recommend 300% short soon

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm not sure which is more dangerous.
    The Market or the Jungle.

  • Nightwind

    /dx hitting ascending triangle support

  • roncofooddehydrator

    FAZ got close enough to my target, bought at 14.82. Leaving some space to buy more if we hit the target (14.77) or move below it. I'll add to the position if it starts looking like the reversal we've been waiting for is upon us.

  • Nightwind

    My target was 14.64, close enough

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    beeeeears!!!!!!!!

    How are we feeling???????????

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-qRDg9WS7fk

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    just sold my closes to the loan shark and bought SMH puts

    running home now http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HVU1ffXXJ4A

  • Tronacate

    Short 1 NQ contract……we'll see

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    I'd like to buy in

  • BobbyLow

    David DT

    I just watched this film and it was hilarious. On a sad note though, I felt like I was watching myself from the short side over the past few months.

    But I still was able to laugh so I guess the market hasn't taken everything away. :)

  • Tronacate

    I see a big stretch from the 50dma like yesterday…….I see it resolving itself a bit sooner today….but just a guess

  • Tronacate

    IYR rolling over again

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    the thing is – market takes our money first
    and when we think that is all to it and we still can laugh
    it takes our jobs
    then it takes our wives
    then it takes our laugh

    sneaky devil market is

    but we'll still have our shopping carts

  • roncofooddehydrator

    So 11:30 < 10:30, let's hope thats good for the bears

  • panzer

    I have a good deal of respect for so many here, foremost bob the horse…..still, for the past 10 months the technical set ups have been money losers, for all but the most nimble short.. …so little time is spent on fundamentals…..Questions: why can't the fed simply kick the can down the road a year or two, and re inflate? More to the point, the economic data is turning now, and there appears to be a jobless recovery, and the latest jobs report was viewed quite favorably. today also the trannies broke out to new highs quite convincingly, and the banksters broke resistance and are moving higher….the market is seeing this……..all of this versus technical overbought indicators which have been unreliable quite often when pitted against the bull market…….any thoughts?

  • BULLBEAR

    anyone know why gold falling

  • skynard

    Very close to another ROC trendline break here, will notify.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Angela talking; poo-pooing idea of EMF to help Greece.

  • Tronacate

    Wow….I'm in the green…..but it looks like they're trying to run this up again………nope……distribution coming in

  • skynard

    OOOMMMPPPP, there it is! Very close to falling below the 0 also.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    EMF = back door help. Just saves them from saying “bailout”! Germans won't let it happen ..cos they are the ones who would have to fund it !

  • bobthehorse

    The technical set-ups have been money losers for people looking for P3. In reality, there have been some great short opps over the last few months. The problem is most people wait until they believe the big trend change is 'confirmed' then get short, capture the last micro part of the down move and then get squeezed to hell. I see very few people on this board playing it from the long side ever which is madness and then too many trying to jump on a move which is nearing exhaustion. I have not has a great day today but the reason I can take a bit of a hit is because we were long from 1050 to 1121. With a bit of P&L cushion, taking a bit of a hit from 1040 to 1048 is manageable and now we have taken our average 'in' price up to 1142, Still offside but the risk reward here is delicious.

  • Tronacate

    I actually took a short on a thrust up instead of vice versa………breakouts did not work so well

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Bought more FAZ at 14.95, I like the looks of this. If we can break past 15.06 we might have an actual reversal day in the making.

  • ricebowl

    I hate H&S patterns, but the intraday SPX chart looks like one.

  • alessiov

    update to previous post

    http://screencast.com/t/OGI5YWU0Y

  • chronographics

    FYI Hear Central bank seller in Gold 1104.20

  • skynard

    Need to see an RSI trendline break to really get this going.

  • Cerebro82

    Long the Dollar. Bounced off the channel line. Nice clean stop
    http://content.screencast.com/users/Cerebro82/f

  • AudioTactics

    Big reversal in Oil today and 2nd reversal in the last 2 trading days on SPX. I think risky markets are definitely showing signs of toppyness now. If you weren't short yet, this would be a good place to get short.

    If you were already short, like me, this would be a good place to sit on your hands imho.

  • Nightwind

    This is like a horror film, just when you think that Jason is dead, then…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LMAO!!

  • Cerebro82

    Long the dollar heavy and short the /ES with a stop at 1150. Everyone is singing straight to 1200. I feel good about the trade. Low risk and great reward if it works out. Expecting a dollar rally soon.

  • AudioTactics
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    EMF is one ugly furball of an organization – ever read Goethe's Faust?

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    I have to admit, this looks extremely promising with only a 10spx point risk margin – but I am afraid to be short this especially with opex week coming.

  • Tronacate

    It was hard to jump back in the saddle after getting bucked off so hard……

  • AudioTactics

    Exit the shorts by Friday EOD then?

  • Gold_Gerb
  • Cerebro82

    Seems everyone has capitulated. I'm feeling great about the possibility of everyone getting caught with their pant's down.

  • Cerebro82

    BREAK OF 1.3600 ON THE EUR/USD I will be shorting more.

  • Tronacate

    Now long 1 contract NQ

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Gold looks like an excelent long with stop and reversal at today's low

    long target 1210

    short target 995

  • vasiltrade

    Cant understand it….u opened a great position almost on the HOD! Why not manage it and u reverse?anyway,good luck.

  • Tronacate

    Big accumulation bar……..on the 3 min…….also IYR……..now flat……..waiting for another push to short

  • gatopeich

    No more case of distribution?

  • gatopeich

    Man you sure are nimble!

  • Tronacate

    Looks like A/D line is flattening

  • johnny

    noone can go wrong by going long in this mkt except he picks hod

  • Tronacate

    s 1contact NQ again

  • Schwerepunkt

    I haven't managed to climb back into it yet. I'm still in pain from the bOb treatment.

  • Tronacate

    The ol' saddle horn up the rectum trick

  • Tronacate

    I'm thinking this is a litle fake reversal and things are gonna sell off again

  • johnny

    every fake rise turns out to be wave 3 after few hours

  • Tronacate

    Should have stayed long for a bit…..dammit

  • johnny

    fun time of bears is over , time for some daily charity

  • Schwerepunkt

    Now it'll go frustratingly sideways for two hours, then a rise into the close. Same as it ever was.

  • Schwerepunkt

    10-year auction excellent. BTC 3.45!

  • Tronacate

    A/D rolling over again…….

  • Tronacate

    The reason I reversed the short was there was a 55000+ contract accumulation bar on the ES coming off the bottom @12:35…….now it's gonna be where it gets sold

  • johnny

    even if there were 55 contracts instead of 55000 , mkt will close flat to mild positive or negative, strange but true

  • Tronacate

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • Nightwind

    Bernanke is slipping on the hockey mask

  • Gold_Gerb

    nope. not going to do it. [photoshop].

  • MMM___Soylent

    For anyone struggling to visualize gmak's candle mapping, I have uploaded an excel file that will help you understand it.
    Type the number in the box and it creates the candle. gmak's frequency data is in there too, but flipped from top to bottom.
    Created in excel 2007. Enjoy.
    http://www.filefactory.com/file/b09320f/n/Candl

  • johnny

    looks like mkt will close at new high today,this mkt follows only law of super conductivity

  • Tronacate

    Looks more like a fractual of yesterday…..double top only bigger

  • Gold_Gerb

    after waiting for 29 seconds to get the download, i was surprised with a NSFW popup.
    whatcha trying to do! get me fired!?
    college kids these days.
    😉

  • MMM___Soylent

    I have not used filefactory before. My apologies!

  • alessiov

    Structural Logic
    Dow and Gold makes new lows on week, while SP500 retests last weeks highs

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmE3ZTE4Mj

  • Gold_Gerb

    “it's all good, private cubical”.
    thinking of other front desk rodents.

  • Nightwind

    I see the file link, but not active for me?

  • Gold_Gerb

    I noticed the DOW red today, while other indexes green.
    Split Market?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Does anyone here use the four percent model on any of their analyses? It seems interesting. Here's what it's showing on the 2 hour chart of FAZ.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

    This would indicate that after the close of the last candle, we're now in an upward trend for FAZ.

  • MMM___Soylent

    Now I have it on my own web space.
    http://www.slrlensexchange.com/es/Candlemaker.xls

  • Gold_Gerb

    The percentages total to 98.10698
    where's the 1.9%?!?

  • cramar

    One more wave up to 1150+? Looks like it to me.

  • Nightwind

    Cool, never used it before. It would also indicate that the spx is still in an uptrend too.

  • MMM___Soylent

    You may need to check my numbers. I keyed those in by hand.

  • Tronacate

    NQ about ready to crack lower trendline for inverse dragon ( double top)

  • Tronacate

    NQ and TF should really get rolling to the downside with the non-confirmation by the ES and YM

  • amokta

    Gold seems to have turned into Pewter
    How low can the golden globes go?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Yeah, I need to read up on exactly how to use it, looks like maybe the line changes to connect the local mins and maxes, so when a new max or new min is put in the line would change.

  • Tronacate

    Prechter was at least right on gold going lower

  • goldpackers

    Making some sort of top in this area for 1012 to 1025 spx at least. Still like EMC PLD long.
    X and HD look good on the short side.

  • Tronacate

    NQ just broke lower trendline on 5 min

  • Tronacate

    1st target 1907ish…..then 1902

  • Nightwind

    FAZ – looks like could be forming cup/handle pattern on 5 min

  • gsavli

    next stop: 1650

    joke

    or not

  • Tronacate

    Nice eyes there buddy…..I see that

  • amokta

    Yes, lets see if this turns into a trend proper (at least its well below the dec top). I feel we are at a market turn re s&p dow, the question is whether it will be just corrections within a rising/sidways market, or will it be 'P3' – time will tell, but we never had a 'retest' of lows after such a rise/time elapse in markets in past, so why would it happen now

  • goldpackers

    Turn due 3-12/15. Favoring a high then down hard into 3-31.

  • Tronacate

    Don't know…..weak accumulation here……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    anyone cares to ask if this is a 4?

  • Nightwind

    Scratch that….good imagination : )

  • MMM___Soylent

    Is this a 4?
    Just wondering.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bulish reversal on both stochastics and ma208 line broken, headfake or liftoff?

  • Gold_Gerb

    IMHO, I too feel we are at a market turn.
    Firstly, because of the sour moods of this 'club'.
    Secondly, because of the super secret timing indicators I foster.
    I'm looking for a volatile close higher, or gap open tomorrow higher.
    this is in the spirit of, the bears giving up.
    At some point, the bulls are going to try to cash these phoney profits, surprises will occur I suspect then.
    If volatility doesn't show up, then it's more market melt up. watch the volume and be patient.
    my 2 grams.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Starting a new wave theory, just 1-2-3-4-1-2-3-4-1-2-3-4

    simpler

  • Gold_Gerb

    dancing with the devil.

  • amokta

    2 grams of GOLD i hope!

    by the way, prechter makes a big deal of saying dollar will rise in value as 'debt' is defaulted on, so 'iou' dollars dissappear, and remaining dollars effectively become more 'valuable'/can buy more.
    But what if the fed just prints more dollars (without backing them up against assets) – surely that torpedoes prechters seemingly central tenet.

  • ricebowl

    I have a better wave theory:

    1 (up)
    2 (down)
    3 (up a shitload)
    4 (down a point or two)
    5 (the mother of all rallies)
    6 (up again)
    7 (up, up, and up)
    8 (crash)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    better than streaking nacked with davidDT (yes, he's that desperate)

  • Gold_Gerb

    PEWTER!
    ;-D

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how do you know you left 5? slope?

  • Gold_Gerb
  • amokta

    Cheers, will look into this sometime.

  • Gold_Gerb
  • Nightwind

    Zombie banks, now Zombie Bulls.

  • ricebowl

    Because the pull-back that everyone is waiting for never comes.

    BTW, that was all tongue-in-cheek. Watching the market melt up, up, and up is really irritating, especially when you're short.

  • tradejane

    Yes, very irritating. That and people who buy a rotten stock and expect me to get them out with a profit. *kicks chair*

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know, was also joking (BTW Mole, if you're getting furious with us today you should see how another serious blog like TTW is faring today)

    That's why I chose to find a crazy hedge. If they want to push this higher they have to rotate companies and sectors, and MBI was showing signs of breaking out of underperformance.

    Besides, if CDS's are a problem then the whole market tanks, if it isn't then why is this baby at 1/3rd of it's book value?

    when we get out of shitzone i'll unhedge, one way or the other

  • alessiov

    fwiw, breadth indicators not really confirming afternoon up price action

    http://screencast.com/t/OWM3YzVh

  • I_got_Prechterized

    anybody know today is the 10 year anniversary of the Nasdaq peak in 2000? In just six days the NASDAQ had lost nearly nine percent, falling from roughly 5,050 on March 10, 2000 to 4,580 on March 15, 2000.

  • BobbyLow

    Now that Wall Street has replaced Las Vegas, Atlantic City and every other Gambling Establishment in the entire world, I think the Boyz on the Street are making a colossal mistake.

    At least the conventional gambling establishments allow a few suckers to win every once in a while because it's good for business.

    But these bastards are going to eventually drive every Bear away if they haven't done so already.

    And when it comes time for the “Good Fellas” to say “Pay Me”, there could be no one left to pay or to take the massively overpriced shit stock off their hands.

    Or maybe they'll just turn over the Keys to the Market completely over to the Fed and then the Fed can own all the mortgages, all the stock, all the Bonds and just about everything else.

    And then the Fed can just “Play With Themselves” which is probably something they do very well. :(

  • johnny

    its not only US mkt, every stock exchange of the world is a casino now

  • johnny

    nasdaq didnt even rallied like this in 2000 also

  • shortcover

    reminds me of 1999 and 2007 rolled into one…endless drip drip dripping up every day against a backdrop of complacency…amazing…

  • alexdg

    Parked at 1147, someone please call JPM and have them buy a truckload of SPY.

  • Tronacate

    I just care about “Dancing With The Stars”

  • Gold_Gerb

    and look at this, an article only 4 weeks old.
    maybe history does rhyme.
    :-)
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/188169-treasury

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm trying to forget it, but Trons avatar doesn't help.
    😉

  • johnny

    dow is doing nothing but completing some kind of wave 4 between 10520-10600 to give a breakout on unemployment claim news,btw there are no abc for ur info, just 135,135,135

  • Schwerepunkt

    Meredith Whitney starting V and MA at buy, crossing wires now.

  • alexdg

    And a proper 1.5% jump today, on a new high.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    She's finally playing the game I guess. She had been more bearish than any other prominent analyst. She was forecasting near 25% real unemployment and huge consumer delinquencies. Now, she's bullish on the 2 stocks that represent the consumer more than maybe any other stocks? Shows how the market can really mess with your head.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    C second day in a row over 1 bill shares traded. Let's get the last of the suckers on board in a big way.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Without seeing her note, I would bet she is justifying this call on both company's having huge international exposure and great growth potential in Asia and Latin America. Not so much the US consumer. And since Amex is now an also-ran, she really can't lose by picking both the top credit card cos. BUT, why now? They're both near 52-wk highs.

  • alexdg

    V and MA have been rising constantly. Her call is actually pretty late given that V was hanging sub-80 for quite sometime. V and MA are just processors, unlike AMEX they have no financial stake (i.e. credit) in transactions.

  • mthomas1818

    Anyone see these comments from the gold convention in Toronto about the dollar and gold? I thought they were pretty interesting, especially coming from a gold mining CEO:

    http://www.goldalert.com/gold-stocks.php#gold_b

  • alexdg

    As processors and unrivalled card brands/networks, V and MA grow as more people stop carrying around cash and start using cards (be it debit or credit). But this would have been a better call some 2 ou 3 months ago. Both stocks have had quite a run, its like giving a BUY call on AAPL today…

  • johnny

    mkt constructing yet another triangle , may be nth triangle in this current rampage

  • Schwerepunkt

    A very sensible comment by him.

  • MMM___Soylent
  • Nightwind
  • I_got_Prechterized

    I agree. V and MA are way better plays than junk like AXP or COF. But the call at this point is bizarre. This at a time when V has a bigger market cap than McDonald's or Boeing. Maybe she is just capitulating to the bull bandwagon. She set up her own shop and has been more or less bearish the whole rally. She probably wanted to hedge her negativity with a couple of long recommendations.

  • johnny

    LMAO

  • Nightwind

    I can't disagree with him.

  • ricebowl

    LOL!

    “Everyone knows that when you start to borrow money just to pay interest, you're fucked.”

  • alexdg

    Yeah, your probably right. Some 4 months ago she was downgrading GS and banks and talking about how the market was over-valued. I guess she was hoping for a deeper correction or end of the rally, so much for that! Now that we're on the doorstep of getting new highs on all fronts, she goes with the flow. Its probably the only way she'll get invited on CNBC and get the free publicity. eheh

  • Tronacate

    Nice break of ES down of regression channel

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • johnny

    we need follow thru dude, not cocksucking dip buying coming from zombie camp

  • Tronacate

    Oh I know……….

  • texpresso

    if you want exposure to int'l plastic, my long term faves are GPN and UEPS

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    and rightfully so

  • gatopeich

    You have a site with “Sex Change” on its name?

  • gatopeich

    Volatility up like VIX $18.57 +$0,6 +3,5%?

  • gmak

    I finally have access to Disqus.

    The probability is based on the the bar code from the day before. I look at “IF yesterday was a ’25’ (for example), what has followed the next day?”

    I didn’t publish that – because it is props.

  • gmak

    Thank you. And you’re welcome. Wait until you see the histogram I’ll post tomorrow. It shows the distribution of the daily SPX bar size from low to high. ANother intra-day trading piece of information that should explain my leaning towards that.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    V just made a, sustained, all time high, probably has another .6 to rise

    MA by marketsympathy

  • johnny

    noone can go wrong by going long in this mkt except he picks hod

  • Tronacate

    s 1contact NQ again

  • Schwerepunkt

    I haven't managed to climb back into it yet. I'm still in pain from the bOb treatment.

  • Tronacate

    The ol' saddle horn up the rectum trick

  • Tronacate

    I'm thinking this is a litle fake reversal and things are gonna sell off again

  • johnny

    every fake rise turns out to be wave 3 after few hours

  • Tronacate

    Should have stayed long for a bit…..dammit

  • johnny

    fun time of bears is over , time for some daily charity

  • Schwerepunkt

    Now it'll go frustratingly sideways for two hours, then a rise into the close. Same as it ever was.

  • Schwerepunkt

    10-year auction excellent. BTC 3.45!

  • Tronacate

    A/D rolling over again…….

  • Tronacate

    The reason I reversed the short was there was a 55000+ contract accumulation bar on the ES coming off the bottom @12:35…….now it's gonna be where it gets sold

  • johnny

    even if there were 55 contracts instead of 55000 , mkt will close flat to mild positive or negative, strange but true

  • Tronacate

    zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • Nightwind

    Bernanke is slipping on the hockey mask

  • Gold_Gerb

    nope. not going to do it. [photoshop].

  • MMM___Soylent

    For anyone struggling to visualize gmak's candle mapping, I have uploaded an excel file that will help you understand it.
    Type the number in the box and it creates the candle. gmak's frequency data is in there too, but flipped from top to bottom.
    Created in excel 2007. Enjoy.
    EDIT: (I will repost it somewhere more reliable.)

  • johnny

    looks like mkt will close at new high today,this mkt follows only law of super conductivity

  • Tronacate

    Looks more like a fractual of yesterday…..double top only bigger

  • Gold_Gerb

    after waiting for 29 seconds to get the download, i was surprised with a NSFW popup.
    whatcha trying to do! get me fired!?
    college kids these days.
    😉

  • MMM___Soylent

    I have not used filefactory before. My apologies!

  • alessiov

    Structural Logic
    Dow and Gold makes new lows on week, while SP500 retests last weeks highs

    http://screencast.com/t/ZmE3ZTE4Mj

  • Gold_Gerb

    “it's all good, private cubical”.
    thinking of other front desk rodents.

  • Nightwind

    I see the file link, but not active for me?

  • Gold_Gerb

    I noticed the DOW red today, while other indexes green.
    Split Market?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Does anyone here use the four percent model on any of their analyses? It seems interesting. Here's what it's showing on the 2 hour chart of FAZ.

    http://content.screencast.com/users/jbreedlove/

    This would indicate that after the close of the last candle, we're now in an upward trend for FAZ.

  • MMM___Soylent

    Now I have it on my own web space.
    http://www.slrlensexchange.com/es/Candlemaker.xls

  • Gold_Gerb

    The percentages total to 98.10698
    where's the 1.9%?!?

  • cramar

    One more wave up to 1150+? Looks like it to me.

  • Nightwind

    Cool, never used it before. It would also indicate that the spx is still in an uptrend too.

  • MMM___Soylent

    You may need to check my numbers. I keyed those in by hand.

  • Tronacate

    NQ about ready to crack lower trendline for inverse dragon ( double top)

  • Tronacate

    NQ and TF should really get rolling to the downside with the non-confirmation by the ES and YM

  • amokta

    Gold seems to have turned into Pewter
    How low can the golden globes go?

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Yeah, I need to read up on exactly how to use it, looks like maybe the line changes to connect the local mins and maxes, so when a new max or new min is put in the line would change.

  • Tronacate

    Prechter was at least right on gold going lower

  • goldpackers

    Making some sort of top in this area for 1012 to 1025 spx at least. Still like EMC PLD long.
    X and HD look good on the short side.

  • Tronacate

    NQ just broke lower trendline on 5 min

  • Tronacate

    1st target 1907ish…..then 1902

  • Nightwind

    FAZ – looks like could be forming cup/handle pattern on 5 min

  • gsavli

    next stop: 1650

    joke

    or not

  • Tronacate

    Nice eyes there buddy…..I see that

  • amokta

    Yes, lets see if this turns into a trend proper (at least its well below the dec top). I feel we are at a market turn re s&p dow, the question is whether it will be just corrections within a rising/sidways market, or will it be 'P3' – time will tell, but we never had a 'retest' of lows after such a rise/time elapse in markets in past, so why would it happen now

  • goldpackers

    Turn due 3-12/15. Favoring a high then down hard into 3-31.

  • Tronacate

    Don't know…..weak accumulation here……

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    anyone cares to ask if this is a 4?

  • Nightwind

    Scratch that….good imagination : )

  • MMM___Soylent

    Is this a 4?
    Just wondering.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Bulish reversal on both stochastics and ma208 line broken, headfake or liftoff?

  • Gold_Gerb

    IMHO, I too feel we are at a market turn.
    Firstly, because of the sour moods of this 'club'.
    Secondly, because of the super secret timing indicators I foster.
    I'm looking for a volatile close higher, or gap open tomorrow higher.
    this is in the spirit of, the bears giving up.
    At some point, the bulls are going to try to cash these phoney profits, surprises will occur I suspect then.
    If volatility doesn't show up, then it's more market melt up. watch the volume and be patient.
    my 2 grams.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Starting a new wave theory, just 1-2-3-4-1-2-3-4-1-2-3-4

    simpler

  • Gold_Gerb

    dancing with the devil.

  • amokta

    2 grams of GOLD i hope!

    by the way, prechter makes a big deal of saying dollar will rise in value as 'debt' is defaulted on, so 'iou' dollars dissappear, and remaining dollars effectively become more 'valuable'/can buy more.
    But what if the fed just prints more dollars (without backing them up against assets) – surely that torpedoes prechters seemingly central tenet.

  • ricebowl

    I have a better wave theory:

    1 (up)
    2 (down)
    3 (up a shitload)
    4 (down a point or two)
    5 (the mother of all rallies)
    6 (up again)
    7 (up, up, and up)
    8 (crash)

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    better than streaking nacked with davidDT (yes, he's that desperate)

  • Gold_Gerb

    PEWTER!
    ;-D

    EDIT: the inflation/deflation argument has been on for years. I read a very interesting article that attacked/pointed out the VELOCITY of money is what really matters. not the quantity. food for thought.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    how do you know you left 5? slope?

  • Gold_Gerb
  • amokta

    Cheers, will look into this sometime.

  • Gold_Gerb
  • Nightwind

    Zombie banks, now Zombie Bulls.

  • ricebowl

    Because the pull-back that everyone is waiting for never comes.

    BTW, that was all tongue-in-cheek. Watching the market melt up, up, and up is really irritating, especially when you're short.

  • http://twitter.com/tradejane tradejane

    Yes, very irritating. That and people who buy a rotten stock and expect me to get them out with a profit. *kicks chair*

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    I know, was also joking (BTW Mole, if you're getting furious with us today you should see how another serious blog like TTW is faring today)

    That's why I chose to find a crazy hedge. If they want to push this higher they have to rotate companies and sectors, and MBI was showing signs of breaking out of underperformance.

    Besides, if CDS's are a problem then the whole market tanks, if it isn't then why is this baby at 1/3rd of it's book value?

    when we get out of shitzone i'll unhedge, one way or the other

  • alessiov

    fwiw, breadth indicators not really confirming afternoon up price action

    http://screencast.com/t/OWM3YzVh

  • I_got_Prechterized

    anybody know today is the 10 year anniversary of the Nasdaq peak in 2000? In just six days the NASDAQ had lost nearly nine percent, falling from roughly 5,050 on March 10, 2000 to 4,580 on March 15, 2000.

  • BobbyLow

    Now that Wall Street has replaced Las Vegas, Atlantic City and every other Gambling Establishment in the entire world, I think the Boyz on the Street are making a colossal mistake.

    At least the conventional gambling establishments allow a few suckers to win every once in a while because it's good for business.

    But these bastards are going to eventually drive every Bear away if they haven't done so already.

    And when it comes time for the “Good Fellas” to say “Pay Me”, there could be no one left to pay or to take the massively overpriced shit stock off their hands.

    Or maybe they'll just turn over the Keys to the Market completely over to the Fed and then the Fed can own all the mortgages, all the stock, all the Bonds and just about everything else.

    And then the Fed can just “Play With Themselves” which is probably something they do very well. :(

  • johnny

    its not only US mkt, every stock exchange of the world is a casino now

  • johnny

    nasdaq didnt even rallied like this in 2000 also

  • shortcover

    reminds me of 1999 and 2007 rolled into one…endless drip drip dripping up every day against a backdrop of complacency…amazing…

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    Parked at 1147, someone please call JPM and have them buy a truckload of SPY.

  • Tronacate

    I just care about “Dancing With The Stars”

  • Gold_Gerb

    and look at this, an article only 4 weeks old.
    maybe history does rhyme.
    :-)
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/188169-treasury

  • Gold_Gerb

    I'm trying to forget it, but Trons avatar doesn't help.
    😉

  • johnny

    dow is doing nothing but completing some kind of wave 4 between 10520-10600 to give a breakout on unemployment claim news,btw there are no abc for ur info, just 135,135,135

  • Schwerepunkt

    Meredith Whitney starting V and MA at buy, crossing wires now.

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    And a proper 1.5% jump today, on a new high.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    She's finally playing the game I guess. She had been more bearish than any other prominent analyst. She was forecasting near 25% real unemployment and huge consumer delinquencies. Now, she's bullish on the 2 stocks that represent the consumer more than maybe any other stocks? Shows how the market can really mess with your head.

  • I_got_Prechterized

    C second day in a row over 1 bill shares traded. Let's get the last of the suckers on board in a big way.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Without seeing her note, I would bet she is justifying this call on both company's having huge international exposure and great growth potential in Asia and Latin America. Not so much the US consumer. And since Amex is now an also-ran, she really can't lose by picking both the top credit card cos. BUT, why now? They're both near 52-wk highs.

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    V and MA have been rising constantly. Her call is actually pretty late given that V was hanging sub-80 for quite sometime. V and MA are just processors, unlike AMEX they have no financial stake (i.e. credit) in transactions.

  • mthomas1818

    Anyone see these comments from the gold convention in Toronto about the dollar and gold? I thought they were pretty interesting, especially coming from a gold mining CEO:

    http://www.goldalert.com/gold-stocks.php#gold_b

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    As processors and unrivalled card brands/networks, V and MA grow as more people stop carrying around cash and start using cards (be it debit or credit). But this would have been a better call some 2 ou 3 months ago. Both stocks have had quite a run, its like giving a BUY call on AAPL today…

  • johnny

    mkt constructing yet another triangle , may be nth triangle in this current rampage

  • Schwerepunkt

    A very sensible comment by him.

  • MMM___Soylent
  • Nightwind
  • I_got_Prechterized

    I agree. V and MA are way better plays than junk like AXP or COF. But the call at this point is bizarre. This at a time when V has a bigger market cap than McDonald's or Boeing. Maybe she is just capitulating to the bull bandwagon. She set up her own shop and has been more or less bearish the whole rally. She probably wanted to hedge her negativity with a couple of long recommendations.

  • johnny

    LMAO

  • Nightwind

    I can't disagree with him.

  • ricebowl

    LOL!

    “Everyone knows that when you start to borrow money just to pay interest, you're fucked.”

  • http://www.google.com/profiles/alexdg alexdg

    Yeah, your probably right. Some 4 months ago she was downgrading GS and banks and talking about how the market was over-valued. I guess she was hoping for a deeper correction or end of the rally, so much for that! Now that we're on the doorstep of getting new highs on all fronts, she goes with the flow. Its probably the only way she'll get invited on CNBC and get the free publicity. eheh

  • Tronacate

    Nice break of ES down of regression channel

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • johnny

    we need follow thru dude, not cocksucking dip buying coming from zombie camp

  • Tronacate

    Oh I know……….

  • texpresso

    if you want exposure to int'l plastic, my long term faves are GPN and UEPS

  • http://trading-to-win.blogspot.com/ DavidDT

    and rightfully so

  • gatopeich

    You have a site with “Sex Change” on its name?

  • gatopeich

    Volatility up like VIX $18.57 +$0,6 +3,5%?

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    V just made a, sustained, all time high, probably has another .6 to rise

    MA by marketsympathy

  • fuw

    ok, suspected that. Nice summary, and interesting if you start looking at conditional probabilities for future action.