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Don’t Step In Front Of The Bull
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Don’t Step In Front Of The Bull

by The MoleApril 14, 2016

I’m running a bit short on time this morning as I spent a good portion of it figuring out a tricky math problem I needed to solve for my one of my new short term momo indicators (i.e. a Laplace bubble). Big kudos to the Gold Gerb who didn’t hand me the solution on a platter but at least pointed me into the right direction (for which he was richly rewarded). Albeit a bit rusty in the calculus department I was able to take it from there and figure out how to process my input successfully. Of course in hindsight the solution is rather trivial, and actually confirmed one of my early ideas, but just in trading hindsight is 20/20. And in the end only results count.

2016-04-14_SPX_LT

I’m running a bit too late for posting setups but at the danger of stating the obvious I nevertheless wanted to issue a stern warning to any of you who may feel tempted to ‘sell the rip’ or ‘fade the crowd’ or try anything stupid just to be contrarian. Quite often the crowd is right and if in doubt follow the tape higher.

Equities have been on a tear for weeks and despite lacking in breadth and momentum (see my massive momo post yesterday) are not encountering anything substantial in terms of resistance. Neither the futures or the actual S&P cash index are giving us any technical context we could hang our hats onto at this moment. Shown above is the latter which only features a last bastion of technical resistance near 2104 in the form of a small cluster of monthly Net-Line Sell Levels (NLSLs). Whether or not that actually will stave off or even diminish any bullish momentum remains to be seen. But at minimum let’s wait and see once we get there. Never step in front of a train, bus, bull, bullet, or any other fast moving object in general.

I’ll tack on a few more charts here later today if I run into anything interesting.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Round we go

    mole, your such a conformist. there is no bull, it an illusion 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Today and yesterday we’ve got the bull. He might get slaughtered tomorrow or next week but we have to bite our time. That is the reality mate – anything else is wishful thinking. Whatever you call it – bull or mickey mouse – I see prices ramp and I step out of the way or try to hop on the bus.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @gold-gerb

    I tried a similar approach but that it wasn’t the answer. What I was missing was the factor you labeled R. And as such the issue was that one is chasing a running target. Now I don’t have R – I only have the input (e.g. 75 as in E2 in your spreadsheet). BUT what I CAN do is this:

    X =FLOOR(LOG10(ABS(C16)),1) +1

    What this basically does is to count the digits in my input number, e.g 750 would yield 3. Then it takes 3 and I can use that to calculate decimal shift, which is based on the digits:

    digits * 2 + 1

    So for input 7.5 the digits are 1 and I need a decimal shift of 3. That means:

    1 * 2 + 1 = 3

    As the input gets bigger the decimal shift gets bigger as well. I need 100 shifts between the price and the setting. Because when price adds one digit the setting drops one digit. Thus the *2 in the decimal shift formula. It’s actually rather simple. But your table put me on the right track.

    You earned yourself a year of the juicy Zero indicator. I promised one month but you’ve got seniority and I’m happy to see you back here. I used the darthgerb login by the way.

  • Round we go

    hence your a conformist and you know I am contrarian. as I was bullish when at 1800 and bearish above 2000. it does not matter if you win or lose, if you focus on what is your true nature, you will benefit, even if you loose the “game”.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not sure what you’re saying RWG. My trading record here speaks for itself – you would be the first to accuse me of a directional bias. I just trade the tape that’s in front of me, right now and within my trading window. Which may differ from yours.

  • Round we go

    yes we are opposites 😉 that is why we have been aligned only on two trades since oct. I am long term range player and contrarian. you are trend follower in the short term.

  • ridingwaves

    best to lose labels RWG…they are good on clothes and that’s about it…

  • ridingwaves

    SPY-Lack of volume up here could make this Hamburger Hill….breakout target would crush all shorts forever….

    http://s16.postimg.org/hzoiknl5h/SPY_PF_41416.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Thank You Captain.
    You are much too generous.

    ..And in the end only results count.
    Well spoken words. I’m a fan of pragmatism.

    If I have any problems I can email you at admin@domain?

    -GG

  • Round we go

    watch the dollar, obozo told yellen to tilt towards main st not wall st.

    odd, notice that jpy and usd is green today.

  • Jay Thomas

    I see the logarithms at work, but have no idea what you are working on. My advice with Laplace bubbles is to make sure to satisfy the boundary conditions between regions.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    just like american politics … lol

  • mugabe

    Nothing to do with trading, but an interesting example of ‘home country bias’

    http://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-36029894

  • Round we go

    american were rebels that said the establishment was fucked and went to search for freedom. but after world war II, america became the establishment. hence no where to go but down as there is no new frontier, until you reset.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • mugabe

    of course, spanish politics is just as bad, if not worse … masses of posturing … which explains why we’ve been without a govt for months

  • JackSparow

    Mole,

    ES is part of my daily routine 🙂 I try not to miss you posts and the sharp commentary here.

    RW, you maybe right see my post previous thread

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    he lives. I mentioned your name a day or two ago.

    EDIT: never-mind, you didn’t make the top 3.
    😉

  • mugabe

    relatively, and it’s all relative, america still looks pretty good to me. biggest dangers are:
    entrenched, non-pragmatic politics
    corporate cronyism
    falling behind the at the cutting edge of scientific research

  • Round we go

    one thing that this crazy bizzaro world we are in now can deliver is the insane circus show that is hidden in our society. I love all the freaky crazy people in the cracks doing all kinds of crazy shit. like squirrel suit fliers, gamers who are lost in a virtual world, 800lb obese killing himself with potato chips…. as much as I am gloom and doom about finance. I fully appreciate the circus for what it is, and look for the art in it.

  • Round we go

    the biggest danger for america is fear. the fact that we are too afraid to let the banks fail. the fact the we are too afraid to rebel against our own government. it is fear from within america that will be our down fall. this fear is evident in the proxy wars we constantly conduct. jefferson said the downfall of america will be standing army and banks in control of the monetary system. we have both today.

    we don’t need new tech nor productivity. that is old paradigm, what we need is less consumption and more interaction. less business and more just being. we can house and feed the world with what we got now but we do not. more tech and productivity will only degenerate earth.

  • ridingwaves

    at glance it looks as though your expecting more per chart notes..You original chart target played out well, were you thinking of extension on rally above your original target of 2079? it could be a chop fest up here thru end of the month with earnings pouring in…

  • ridingwaves

    from you P Brandt link last post…new post it note on wall
    Traders, go by the rule that your worst drawdown is the one that has not happened yet. This will help you leverage properly.

  • mugabe

    ‘banks in control of the monetary system.’ – yes, but where doesn’t that happen, lol? it’s all relative.

  • ridingwaves

    Iceland stood out in regards to dealing with banks and the monetary system…

  • Round we go

    it only happens at the beginning when growth is suspicious ( gold standard does this ). but advanced systems are not suspicious, they just want to continue, which eventually falls because they do not adjust to new paradigm.

  • mugabe

    actually, I think they did support the banks – they just refused to pay foreign bagholders, but the ‘natives’ got reimbursed by the govt and the banks didn’t fail … could be wrong on this

  • Round we go

    they defaulted. they did not take on new dept to pay old dept like greece.

  • JackSparow

    Yes, If it lurks in this area (2077(ES)) next 3 -4 days and closes above 2077, I think this keeps going up. in line with your chart below.

    I was expecting price to show a declining trend as it approached 2077, but to my eyes.. price appears to show a pause and resume of trend – wanting to go higher ( price failed to touch the grey line – see chart.. my lens maybe wrong..but I won’t know until I bet :).. G’luck!

  • JackSparow

    Thanks.. mentioned by you is honor enough 😉

  • ridingwaves

    with oil rising and FIRE sector getting some love, some bad mojo would have to appear for this to shake lower….XLF making run to 23.75 and oil moving higher is juicy bull ammo

  • Round we go
  • Time Bandit

    Mornin folks,

    Interesting stuff this AM. I would like to add that since the beginning of time there has always been the “Haves” and the “Have Nots”. One of the main differences today is the Constant 24 Hour a Day Instant Information Cycle that if we choose to use it can help us find out how in what areas we’re getting screwed the most. I wish there is something that could be done to prevent this screw job from happening but after too many years to mention, I’ve finally realized that I’m powerless over this situtation. I can however control how I react to the environment around me and try to do what’s best for me and my family.

    Now back to trading: I forced stopped my GBP/JPY Long last night at BE, took +.61R Profit on XLE this morning (Both of these were discretionary stops) and still have an open long position in XLB. I’ve also opened new Short Positions in /ZC and /ZL with /ZC position on shaky ground at this moment.

  • ridingwaves

    those NUGT holders whom didn’t take that 25% move are now getting some tough love….no shaky pudding for them tonight….I’m a buyer at 62 area

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I see fib-fan support around 70.
    but there is a gap, down at 60. and with momentum, it wouldn’t be long or hard to get there.

  • ridingwaves

    going into Fed meeting in 2wks will give them plenty of opportunity until then to get it there..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    TVIX, still dropping.

    I’m a buyer at 2.70
    that’s another 66% drop.
    😉

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TVIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p53861018222

  • JackSparow

    ok since you mentioned oil.. one last chart.. then I’ll shut up 🙂

    to me oil looks exhausted, thats why not sure what SPY will do..

    CL maybe a short below 42.5 (SL) but would look to July contract to confirm and use that to short..

  • Time Bandit

    One of the problems I had with XLE is that I was late getting into the trade. Because of this my programmed stop would have been barely profitable. Crude “might” be getting tired and I have no position but it appears to be refusing to die at this moment.

  • ridingwaves

    thanks…I waiting to see if they run $BRENT to 47ish or 50sma weekly for but in the bear favor $WTIC was rejected yesterday at 50sma on weekly…

  • Round we go

    guess we know what the emergency meeting is about, BREXIT. Guess he thinks this comment is supposed to calm markets.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/fed-admits-wont-stop-music

  • Yoda
  • Time Bandit

    Stopped on /ZC -.58R Loss

  • mugabe
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    true. fill that on the way back up.
    for now, the daily death cross is alive.

  • Billabong

    The major equity markets are moving higher …. One only has to look at the 90 day chart to know it’s not the time to jump in front of the steam roller.

  • Billabong

    In a follow-up to a few days ago on the strange announcement of the “emergency” Fed meeting, followed by the POTUS / Yellen meeting, the G-20 central bankers meeting on Tue/Wed in Washington DC, and the IMF holding some sort of high level banking meeting a day or two later, is the SDR finally going to come out of the closet and become the global currency of choice.

  • mugabe

    no

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s actually what I was working on. I stole some Laplace indicator for Ninja online but the probability is a static setting and it doesn’t adjust with price. The same settings on the EUR/USD and the ES futures produce vastly different bubbles. So not being a math genius and all I still realized that I’m dealing with a double exponential. I also realized that the best settings seemed to be shifting down with price increases. So the algo above basically assumes a basic setting which it derives from price. I can still multiply that based on some factor, e.g 1.5x or 0.5x depending if I want the bubble tighter or looser (higher or lower probability).

    Hope this makes sense 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Always – I’m here to help.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Remember what George Carlin said: You’ve got front row seats to the freak show.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkTeZLiNCoM

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A lurker then – glad you’re participating a little now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Zero snapshot – participation just disappeared:

    .

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have a Tee time late this month.
    confirmed by a smaller T that has already completed.
    perhaps that’s why I was a bit cocky.

    If your bullish, you just keep watching this saw blade upward, and make sure your trailing stop is where you do best.

    If your bearish, well it’s mid-month, sort of between the two Tee’s.
    the end of the month *could* be a intermediate low, no chance will you see me ‘guess’ where it might sink if so.

    For those new to this symmetric technique, Yes, it doesn’t work with sh!t in a trending market.
    but as you can clearly see, this SPX has been sinusoidal cycling every 50 trading days.
    So I lean 70/30 to the upside, for now.

    -DarthGerb

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    51 if you want to get picky.

    ps. note the divergence on the RSI recently with price.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, this was the key lesson said to be learned by the POW survivors.

  • Yoda

    Tape went bid-less at the today’s top. Even bots are turned off at this level.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “until the masses march on DC in millions…” , that signal also easily sent by voting in DJT.

  • Time Bandit

    Have order in to go Long OIH MOC. Looking for a retest of yesterday’s High or a quick Fail with tight stop.

  • Billabong

    Why not? I’m interested in your thoughts on why the SDR can’t expand beyond it’s limited jurisdiction. And when I say global currency on a large scale, I’m not talking about currency you and I would use. It would expand it’s backing to include hard asset backing through a variety of commodities and would be used primarily by large corporations and governments.

  • Billabong

    GC still hanging its hat on 1200 to 1250 trading range.

  • mugabe

    I just don’t see any real competitor to the dollar as a reserve currency and, more importantly, I can’t see the US giving that status up easily when they’re the ones printing it. Also, the dollar has been relatively strong for the last couple of years, so it’s not as if it’s been undergoing any sort of crisis.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Beautiful divergence – was out but hope that some of you Zero subs caught it.

  • Round we go

    So you were right no crash today. I can wait along time with my longterm shorts at 2x, decay is not bad in a bear market. But may is just arround the corner and it is going tobe some divergences tobe psid .

  • TerpFan

    Mole, I could use some help with the Zero. Can you annotate today’s divergence you mentioned. Thanks.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Happy to help (see the screen grab). Also I think you should watch the videos this weekend – there under the Zero menu and you’ll really enjoy them.

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Even given laplace distribution which is a big step up from normal and reflects what we see during the average trading year there is only a 75% chance of seeing a sigma 5 event per year – once! Not sigma 6 – which is what you are waiting for – those happen once per decade or so. Have fun timing those.

  • Yoda

    Not touching indexes this week.
    FWIW, SPX finished the day with a doji after touching the top 25 d BB.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p29583300909

    same for NDX and INDU

  • Round we go

    shit mole the JPM is giving dollar value to the Unrealized volatility soon to be realized. guess you guys are in sync. on this one.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-14/volatility-regime-may-be-about-shift-jpms-quant-guru-out-new-warning

  • Round we go

    ill take what ever crash they give me this year 🙂

  • TerpFan

    Thanks! I get the declining participation all during the day (and the divergence). But, what was the trigger point for a trade?

  • Yoda

    Can you demonstrate over a long period of time that this T thing actually gives you an edge?

  • Yoda

    Careful with polluting your mind by reading too much of zeroedge. Whether you like it or not their constant gloom and bearish stance will influence your psyche and bias your trading.

  • Round we go

    i would say in the shorterm 2075 break down of the uptrendline. stop would be the high of day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think this padawan is tinkering with the dark side.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There is no hard trigger point – remember it’s an indicator and not the holy grail 😉 I usually correlate it with a spike high or perhaps a Bollinger. VWAP is on that chart but it wasn’t nearby today. You may have your own set of technical indicators for entries. The Mole signals sometimes work well during sideways days but not during trending days.

    In a nutshell – watch the tape and if a divergence presents itself then look out for a price pattern. One more thing – always mind the signal range – anything below 1.0 is only a minor range and reeks of low participation. It’s easy to over estimate or misread small signal swings on tiny signal days. When in doubt look at the hourly panel. It provides more long term clues.

    Again, i suggest you watch the Zero videos. Those will answer a ton of questions for you. I have already done all that work – so there’s no reason to do it again. The videos are really awesome for accelerating your ability to leverage the Zero. It’s a great and predictive indicator and I have no doubt you’ll catch on quickly.

  • Yoda

    This is a very useful comment for those new to the Zero.

  • Yoda

    I realised some time ago that the less news or opinion blogs I read, the more successful my trades end up. It is unbelievable how mind pollution can affect your trading and result in you making emotional decisions rather than ones based on objective indicators. This is really awkward when you think that there are some many who try to beat the market by trading the news and competing with bots. I pity them for their ignorance… but I gladly take their coins. 😉

  • Yoda

    USD looks like a short on the daily:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USD&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p68511373464

    However, if we get tomorrow a breach of today’s high, I’ll be seriously looking at the long side.

  • Round we go

    the scary thing is that half the chart based bear post on zerohedge are from the big banks. bloomberg and zerohedge is looking more and more alike. If you have not notice my source of financial info is wide ranging. I am a bit of an addict. anything I get into, I tend to go overboard. but I also, zen out and can sit an do nothing. alot of you guys on this site seem to have zerohedge and bear phobia from the FED training for the last seven years. Understandable but come on toughen up and see that it is time to open your eyes.

  • Round we go

    tinkering? I fully embrace the dark side. you for sure know it is not time to embrace the dark side, that you sit smug and know I will fail.

  • Billabong

    It’s chaos …. I got a buy signal on DX after rejecting the 25 EMA. Also, YM / NQ / ES made multi-month highs today.

  • captainboom

    You often post links to ZeroEdge. Please don’t take offense, but I’d prefer you limit that here, as if I wanted to read ZeroEdge, I would go there.

    I believe you are talking your book, but it really does become noise after a while. I prefer to limit my information diet and avoid the news. Let’s see what the tape shows us, and trade from that. Thanks in advance.

  • Round we go

    scott talked me out of a qqq short in near 2050spx in dec cus it did a head fake and gapped up. and he and everybody else here was blanket against any zerohedge post without even addressing what was in the post. just like your doing now. funny how you and so many other posters here have the same smugness. feel I am posting to one guy.

  • Round we go

    why not judge the content weather it is correct or it is false. why focus so much that it came from zeroedge? I think you guys are retarded to blanket out bear news. note I was not bearish below spx 1900 and I do not constantly post zeroedge. and take breaks away from trading news and posting. you may note half the time I am not here. but in overbought conditions with shit internals, I tend to go ape shit on posts and I always post my charts for trades. if my post zeroedge links are not welcome here and I need to censor myself then I probably rather not come here.

  • Round we go

    i leave you with these.

  • captainboom

    Figured I might just be banging my head against the wall. Sigh…

  • Billabong

    Don’t confuse a professional trading site with a Yahoo anything goes site.

  • mugabe

    Form Andreas Clenow, taking possibly a different approach to what that which some here might follow:

    A portfolio model is something very different from what most retail
    traders call a trading system. Oddly, the perception of trading system
    as a set of rules for timing buys and sells in a single market is still
    pervasive. That’s still what you tend to see if you ever pick up a
    trading magazine. That’s normally not how things look in reality of
    course. Not on the sharp end of the business.
    What we’re normally dealing with is portfolio models. In a portfolio
    model, the position level is of subordinate importance. The only thing
    that matters is how the portfolio as a whole performs. We’ll always have
    many positions on, and it’s the interaction of these positions that
    matter in the end. Portfolio modelling is a more productive way to spend
    your time.
    What may surprise some not in the industry is that often portfolio
    models don’t even bother to try any sort of entry and exit timing. Stop
    loss methodology is rare and concepts like position pyramding would
    simply never be a topic. What we’re dealing with here are usually simple
    models, with mechanisms for selecting components, allocating to the
    components, rebalancing the components.

    http://www.followingthetrend.com/2016/04/you-cant-beat-all-the-chimps/

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yeah, I think Scott is actually dabbling in that kind of stuff. Doesn’t apply to retail however as you need $1M++ accounts to really trade this way.

  • Time Bandit

    I don’t believe not wanting to reading sites like Zero Hedge is a case of smugness RWG. For me it’s a learned behavior, I personally banned both Bear Porn and Bull Porn a long time ago because of the large amount of my capital that went up to money heaven. My capital died largely in part because of my constantly searching for as many views that supported my positions as I could find.

    It’s not being smug to believe that people who write articles pertaining to the markets are only offering opinions. My experience has been that these people have just as good a chance of being wrong as they have being right. These are not good enough odds for me.

    As far as your longer term charts are concerned, you could very well be correct. But I am not going to trade that far out. The ironic thing as far as I’m concerned is that I’ve been around during the Tech Bubble Bursting, and the Reckless Bank Bubble Bursting. On both of these major declines, I would have been short if I had only listened to price instead of all the noise that was surrounding me at these times.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    This has been discussed before.
    there’s only been 3 opportunities of the last 5 years.
    so 6 times per decade, is too low of a N count for any statistical confidence.

  • randomuser6789

    A stopped clock is right twice a day. I ban ZeroEdge because they only talk the bear case. They have been a big bad bear for the entire time since March of 2009 – one of the strongest bull runs in the history of markets. They were bears before that, and they will still be bears when it all comes crashing down. Good for them. They always spout bearish noise, regardless what is happening in the market. Therefore, they do not help your trading.

  • Round we go

    the smugness is not about just zerohedge. this site seams to have a personality of being right. I feel like this site is the Bill Mahar of trading sites. even when it is right, no one want to be judged and look down upon. this site likes to elevate it self as professional but I see lot more professional traders on slope than here. but you time bandit, no smugness and you shoot straight and I know exactly where you stand. so your a winner in my book. funny I post bear post after mole posts orange and red options and I get judged for being a perma bear when I was bullish at the bottom just six weeks ago. it the judging of posters that will kill this site, cus who wants to be judged weather your a “professional” or a retard. good luck TB

  • ridingwaves

    Since a new post is near….

    RWG was on a roll last night..thinking about 2008 and how that trading year went as todays market seems to be playing that 2008 hit song, keep spx500 up without Viagra…We are definitely in an invisible recession…

    Industrial production fell 0.6% in March, the sixth decline in the past seven months, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Friday.

    Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a 0.2% fall. Production in February was revised down to a 0.6% decline from the initial estimate of a 0.5% decline.

    Capacity utilization fell to 74.8% in March from a downwardly revised 75.3% in February. This was below expectations.

    Bait for all shorts…this is not good….
    http://s24.postimg.org/7osk6z7ud/ruh_ohhh.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    RWG
    Where do you get the judging? I think your putting yourself in that position if so…your reacting to content written by someone else whom has another position of thinking…more difference of opinion then judging…no one cares about a bio pick I might post and it doesn’t affect me one iota…

    I think you need to lose the everyone is picking on my ego….I think it’s just the opposite and people are commenting on what they see, what could be etc…

    slow down, your driving like you own the track, can push other cars off of it and the stands are empty because you knocked all the other drivers off the track…

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks RWG and good luck to you too.

  • Yoda

    I have this set-up that I plan to trade if it triggers today. I consider it low risk with a potential for a good reward. I use the price action on NDX for the set-up but the actual trade is made with SQQQ (poor man leverage option):

  • ridingwaves

    i like it, need some drain to push in more shorts to go higher from a bit lower…

  • ridingwaves

    scalp trades for me, active until stop is hit or profit target reached…both low floats that move quick…

    L OXGN at .72 S@.65
    L ROSG 1.29 S@1.25

  • Round we go

    but I dont do when the bullshit meter is off the hook, with internals that are a fucking joke. and they dont want to discuss the content of the post but just fundamentaly block something out. I totally get that I am being obnoxious when I blast posts but if each post is reflective my overall thesis of the “dominant trend” and I am looking for smart people to shoot down the content. I am looking discussion on the content, if no ones interested in critiquing the content and charts then I am wasting my time posting.

    as for my tender ego, yah I get reactive but you know I can put up a fight, look at how I went at it with scott in dec.

    Anyhow I do appreciate you RW. your a straight shooter and you dont have smugness either. my post can be obnoxious, got it RW thanks.

  • Round we go

    but it the only place to get certain information the mass media will not cover. so you have to sift thought the pile of prepper, goldbug retardedness but there is also very insightful charts and data within. that is why every trader goes to zeroedge, to ban their post is to sensor yourself and in that you have set a bias.

  • MK Ultra

    time for the weekend……………
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yzTuBuRdAyA

  • Yoda

    Chill RWG, you are getting too emotional about this, and emotions lead to bad trading. Best traders I have seen are the emotionally coldest Mofos that trade their own system without paying attention to opinions or what other people say. Remember that 95% of traders lose money. So what appears obvious to you in terms of expectation for tape direction may likely be wrong. In the age of Central Banks’ interventions and HFT, fundamentals do not matter.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Economists never see it coming {sarcasm}.

  • ridingwaves

    they stick to their keynesian principles and utter big words…
    kind of like a bar drunk….

  • mugabe

    no, you just trade a system/portfolio according to tested rules without having any macro view. you dont need to take sides or be hyper-informed to be proftitable long term.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    believe or not, me and probably most here are aware of what you say on internals but as you can see it matters little

    go surfing and consider the drawdown as part of business today..the part that eats you up….until it doesn’t

    I’m starting a new business and I’m down 15k
    I hope to make that 15k>1.5M in its lifetime goal but costs are real, database and web networks cost cash…

  • mugabe

    stop taking this personally, it’s not about what you or the rest of us think.

  • mugabe

    with regard to trend following futures, yes. but the same is aplicable on a smaller scale – you have to look at your overall portfolio

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bias is not bad. it’s when you ignore the charts going against your bias, you lose.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias

  • ridingwaves

    sure has been jumpy in miner etf’s-opex..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s always jumpy.
    😉
    but I like the trend
    [NEM]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p64911940263

  • Time Bandit

    Economists are a dime a dozen and are all about formulas. Need a different result? Plug in a different formula.

    In the mean time, the price of Basic Materials (XLB) over the past 9 – 10 Weeks has gone from $38.67 PS on February 2, 2016 to $45.98 PS as of the latest print today. This represents an increase of $7.31 and 18.9%. 🙂

  • mugabe

    no one sees it coming …. why should we expect sconomists to be better?

  • mugabe

    nice trade. is AUD part of your stable? v. strongly recently

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – sorry for being so quiet but I actually started working on a big post on option spreads and midway decided that I needed to cover the greeks first. So I have been working all day on this stuff and it’ll probably take me into the evening to finish the option greeks tutorial. So good stuff coming but today I’m not trading as I am preparing much needed material for you guys.

  • Ronebadger
  • Round we go

    I know and remember who rode the crash down in jan. you and bobby (now TB) did extremely well. BZ also did nice.

    I have searched and experience the perfection surf at Honolua Bay with a giant turtle and 13yr old shredder kid when paddling out. I have seen the Majesty of human life and fully appreciate it. now it is bear mode for me this year. there is time to be complacent and search joy and there time to reflect and search a deep change that may need to happen 🙂

  • MK Ultra

    wow, the eagles?…….. how old are you?
    jk

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    bring it.
    make sure you mix in some strawberries, it can be a dry topic.

    https://doubletakelove.files.wordpress.com/2013/03/oikos.png

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks Mugabe.

    I missed a great run on the AUD. But right now the only Forex Pair that I’m currently trading is the GBP/JPY and I’m neutral on it at this very moment.

    My trading stable is up to 7 Horses now and I’m pushing the limit of the maximum number of horses that I can follow without the risk of getting over extended mentally. These 7 horses include a couple of Futures and I managed to get through my first two “rookie” weeks of trading Futures with 12 closed trades that wound up being net cash positive. 🙂

    It took awhile to learn the price action of Forex and talking in terms of “Pips” and it will take awhile to get accustomed to the price action and talking in terms of “ticks” with Futures. But all in all, the Futures that I’m trading are showing solid promise. What I have to get accustomed to is juggling 3 different accounts that includes an IRA account that uses ETF’s, a Forex account for Currency Pairs, and a Trading Account that handles Futures. But just like most things, the more we do it the easier it becomes.

  • Yoda

    Well since it is Friday, here is my double bottom chart 😉
    http://static.lacuarta.com/20160401/2275777.jpg

  • Ronebadger

    Apparently older than you….

  • ridingwaves
  • strider

    aapl got hit

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I don’t know how the QQQ’s can close the gap with the Beloved drooping.
    EDIT: (divergence on price & RSI)
    I’m sure we’ll muddle through. somehow.
    [AAPL]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p60539105910

  • Billabong

    What is that about? It started around 1 pm.

  • Yoda

    Trade triggered. Entry SQQQ at 17.70

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..Apple will continue its reduced production of iPhones in the April-June period in light of sluggish sales

  • randomuser6789

    “but it the only place to get certain information the mass media will not cover.” <= Truth.
    I just dont have the patience to sift through the garbage to get a few good charts or nuggets that still don't relate to the tape in front of me. The overall effect is that it pollutes my mind. I would rather just trade the chart.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Doing my best which is why it’s taking so long.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Very small range in the Zero Lite today – so don’t over estimate the readings:

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Time Bandit

    Just opened Short on UCO (Surprised I got filled) I’m not crazy about being long OIH and Short UCO at the same time but it is what it is.

    EDIT: Close to my stop on OIH so might not be an issue by COB.

  • ridingwaves

    I bet a shit load of stops below 4 on tvix are going to be taken out…it just seems to close not to push in the 3’s

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I agree. but how do you play it tactically?

    better yet, how far does TVIX go down if VIX say hits 12.0?
    EDIT: (12 is arbitrary, it was a low many times in 2013)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p97463337568

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    3 trades this week
    -1 R short SPY
    +1 R long SPY
    +.25 R short SPY (to be closed today)

    Looking back, -1R short had a bad entry and falls under mistake category and I should’ve pulled the plug on it earlier.

  • ridingwaves

    bingo….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…did you all watch all that volume at the close 4.00 – 4.01? Last tics 3 handle!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Billabong

    I’m leaving now … my mates called me for a pub crawl tonight… after this week, I said when do we start. Mercury has been turning retrograde all week … LOL. Have a great weekend to all!

  • Mark Shinnick

    I wouldn’t know how to predict that since TVIX is essentially in constant decay against the most-local range of sentiment….and then when we get down to these handles the reverse split looms….and after the split the ATR goes nuts….and so on.

  • Time Bandit

    I had a losing week for a net -.68R on 8 Closed Trades. I made a mistake early in the week on /QM Futures that made the difference between having a positive week and a losing week. Mistakes kill. The key is not to make that same mistake again. On a bigger picture, I’ve averaged net bookings of +1.27R per week over the past 26 Weeks. This is slightly off my goal which is to average 1.35R per week in order to reach 70R over a 52 Week period.

    Be back at em on Monday and a great weekend to Evil Rats all over the world. 🙂

  • Crofx

    Mate, I think the issue here is long term -v- short term, most guys here trade intraday and daily where as your trade seems to be a longer term trade, shorter term – fundamentals don’t matter whereas longer term – you assume that fundamentals have to eventually drive the overall demand/supply price point, so everyone here can be right until you take profits or stopped out/bankrupt………

  • Round we go
  • mugabe
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    actually, that’s rhetorical.

    1) I didn’t trust the gap up on XLE daily six days ago.

    2) Number 10. (thank you EvilSpec!)

  • Round we go

    holy Time bandit, we going to be rich!

  • Billabong

    I fully expected the Doha result to take 10% off the top at the open … $4-5 down not -$2.71 (LOD). Even though I have a sell signal tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see CL green in the morning … LOL.

  • mugabe

    what a move in oil

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That actually happens a lot in bearish tape – very hard to participate once things go volatile. People on the outside can’t get in and folks trapped in losing positions can’t get out. Which of course is the purpose of the excercise.