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Celebrating Easter In Style
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Celebrating Easter In Style

by The MoleApril 13, 2017

It’s been a great first quarter for us all and I propose to spread it around a little and celebrate Easter in style. So how about surprising your little ones with a Fabergé nestegg instead of some crusty old chicken egg laced with industrial Chinese paint. A little too pricey for you or you weren’t able to find $33 Million under your couch cushions? Well, try not to look like a complete loser and at least get yourself a few dozen gold plated chicken eggs at the low price of $138 – each that is. I’m sure for that deal their phones are ringing off the hook right now. Crikey – I’m in the wrong damn business!

2017-04-13_ES

Alright since it’s the last session before Easter I’m going to run you through some major symbols as we’re seeing rather fascinating formations across the board. Here’s the E-Mini which has been testing everyone’s patience and quite frankly is looking like it’s about to fall off the plate here today.

Which of course has my fullest attention as I love to sense fear among market participants. I’m just like that little redhead in high school you had a crush on but couldn’t muster the balls to actually chat up. And right you were to not embarrass yourself because she (and yours truly) can smell fear ten miles against the wind. And equity holders are literally soiling themselves right now given all that uncertainty and increasing intra-day volatility.

So a long position near 2330 would be quite appropriate – ISL near 2322. But since this is a lottery ticket (the chances of a slide lower are real of course) position sizing will have to be a very small at 0.25% max. Warning: This is a LOW PROBABILITY HIGH PAYOUT kind of deal. So if you’re following me into the abyss then don’t be stupid and ‘go all in.’

2017-04-13_EURUSD

Let’s wrap up the setups and then I’ll continue with the general overview. The EUR/USD couldn’t hold its water overnight and gave back almost all the juicy pips it gained yesterday after Trump’s Dollar hammer. I don’t think that we’ll see much lower prices here but as I’m a cheap old SOB I’ll wait for a drop into 1.061 before grabbing a small long position. Stop goes below 1.057. If that one goes then we may just be bypassing prison and head directly to par.

2017-04-13_ZB_update

Bonds have continued higher which was a scenario I proposed sometime last week. It was either continuation or a retest of the 100-day SMA which is where I would have gotten long and then some. As it’s gone the other way we may actually not see a retest in a very long time. Because once she takes off she has a tendency to put the squeeze on anyone left holding the bag.

Of course in terms of price action this is nothing unusual. Bonds had been pushing sideways for months while the long term Bollinger was compressing further and further. Something had to give. Unfortunately entering early may have resulted in a whipsaw stop out and I usually prefer to get involved post retest UNLESS I see an irresistible entry formation (which I didn’t).

So let’s see what happens here – even if she continues higher for a while, don’t fret. There will be many great setups on that chart over the remainder of this year as I believe we may be entering a completely new (bullish) market phase.

2017-04-13_crude_update

Crude is actually in a similar formation but it’s lagging behind about 2 to 3 weeks. Which means it’s possible that we may actually be able to grab an early long entry once we see first attempts to paint a correction. I’ll definitely have this one on my watch list and will keep you guys posted.

2017-04-13_gold_update

Gold has now pushed past our preliminary target, which was a scenario I also suggested yesterday. So if you’re still long a few contracts then good for you! There’s no telling when she’ll turn as this is the type of setup trend traders are willing to pay good money for.

2017-04-13_silver_update

Silver lagging behind gold a little but also on the way now. While gold has already pushed past its weekly resistance (the Net-Line Buy Level) this one is still nibbling on it. We may see it fail here but it doesn’t really matter as both charts look bullish as heck and should also bestow us with plenty of long opportunities over the course of this year.

2017-04-13_soybeans

Now here’s the one that got away yesterday as I was too busy writing long winded posts on market sentiment – soybeans. Which is a shame as I actually was pining for a long position here and that little dip and retest of the 100-hour SMA obviously my number on it. Now we are condemned to wait for a retest here as well, which unfortunately may not come for a while. Well, you can’t catch ’em all – but you damn well can try!

happy_eastern

That’s it for me until Monday. Wishing you all a very joyful and chocolate filled Easter weekend! And if you feel like passing on some of that joyous Easter spirit to your humble host then look no further than the member signup page


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I’ve never heard it called Eastern before. Is that some European thing or your auto correct? I see you used it throughout the week however you also spelled it Easter as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Aaah – that’s my own thing I guess as in German it’s called ‘Ostern’ 😉

    I’ll correct it now.

  • ridingwaves

    healthcare-bio index’s picking up some interest today…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Long miners, very tight stp.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stopped.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent volatility one would expect at an inflection zone.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Rebot, tight.

  • ridingwaves

    the market is in purgatory….external shock comes to mind….

  • OJuice

    If the $VIX was just up from pre-earnings season hedging, folks might start unwinding now that the first banks have reported at expectations more or less. A $VIX beat down might shake the market out of its stupor.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stopped. One of those dazs I guess.

  • ridingwaves

    the vix is getting a little beat up, it would seem SPX would need strong run from here on out to change momo…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners.

  • OJuice

    Yes. Got a ways to go before I’d be willing to hang my hat on that theory. Just pondering based on the mornings action so far.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Most of the tell I think was yesterday as vol rate of change collapsed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…something to blame it all on..

  • Yoda

    Happy Easter to all. Let us hope we won’t have to celebrate the second coming of the Christ any time soon.

  • ridingwaves

    there seems lot of fodder to blame a move down on too….
    Trump failure on healthcare, now forgetting tax and regulation iniatives (not priced in)
    NKorea
    Syria
    Europe
    GDP print
    Greece
    Brexit

  • Mark Shinnick

    That guy keeps coming back all the time; one of the most enduring persons I’ve ever heard of.

  • ridingwaves

    same stuff been happening since 1950’s…Jesus decided to take up construction, farming and hanging out at Home Depot waiting to get picked up…
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IKqXu-5jw60

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…its 1 of those daze I find my miners tools too dull to bank coin.

  • ridingwaves

    we close red today….Monday-Tuesday could get ugly 2275 launch point seems better for bulls, so far they are more about preparing for Pamplona instead of the market

  • Yoda

    We’ll be alright as it seems the attention is shifting towards N. Korea, …for now.

  • Yoda

    go fishing instead

  • StockTalker

    Signal getting interesting

  • Yoda

    few want to hold onto positions before the long W-E.

  • Yoda

    though on the West coast, you may get a visit of a sub or two. Nothing that the Navy cannot handlle.

  • Ronebadger

    We just dropped a major bomb in Afghanistan…check you news

  • ridingwaves

    I was reading that NK is getting close to having an Nuke EMG capable bomb that could be delivered to west coast and if detonated 2-400KM in the air it would render electrical grid useless for a year here…

    the Syria thing was just a distraction me thinks…

    interesting divergence in VXO and VIX today

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like we’re “going to blast them into the stone age” Curtis Lemay 1965

    Oh wait. . .

  • StockTalker

    Nice, about time

  • Billabong

    The fat guy with a bad haircut?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Jeezes…

  • Billabong

    Are you doing GDX / GDXJ? Second tier are flying today … HL short covering, institutional buying or a possible buy-out … +8.5% (approx. 1.5X daily volume).

  • Billabong

    It’s a bunker buster … designed to go deep before igniting.

  • ZigZag

    Trump or Kim Jong Un?

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Billabong,

    Just an FYI that I’m back to trading the Daily and we’ll probably be closer to being on the same paqe again. Currently Long Silver via (SLV), Long Miners via (NUGT) and Long Natural Gas via UNG. I’ve also allowed Crude back into my Stable but have no position currently.

  • Ronebadger

    Who was it that said something like (re: Vietnam)?
    “We should turn them into the world’s largest, glass paved, self lit parking lot”

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t know but there was a lot of stuff like that said back then. Could have been Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara.

  • OJuice

    McNamara later expressed regret once he was out of office. My guess is LeMay. He was a psycho.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “GDXJ” …as in JNUG/JDST

  • OJuice

    Guess it will take a few weeks for the algos to be re-tooled so they buy when the word “bomb” hits the news feed… Looks like Trump is going to go right off the deep end and start fighting on every single front possible. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d12239b48ead7fc7a00f1e31182e1ffe83e6122f6abc229057132f48c5625138.jpg

  • Billabong

    Good to hear. I’m currently neutral on CL after missing the buy signal and not paying attention to Mole. Looking for a sell signal as it rolls over. I’m not a big fan of opened funds like GLD or SLV because of the derivative component. I prefer something a little slower like the closed end funds that net out everyday. You would probably laugh, I did a PSLV / PHYS spread when the price discounts were high a few months ago and recently added CEF after Sprott closed on the Central Gold Trust buyout. Wouldn’t you know it, they just made a hostile bid for CEF…

  • Billabong

    Daisy Cutters out of the back of C-130s … instant firebase landing zone.

  • Billabong

    LOL….

  • ZigZag

    Seems like a really bearish day, but /nq is only down .13%

  • StockTalker

    Confirmed sell signal

  • BobbyLow

    Lemay was still General of the Air Force when I was in.

    McNamara did have a lot of regret but I also remember a lot of Nam was all about body count and sorties. A great deal of the Viet Nam War was directed from McNamara’s Office and not on the ground. Just piss poor all the way.

  • Ronebadger

    McNamara sounds right…I think he was talking nuclear

  • ridingwaves

    MOAB- above ground bomb that sucks the air right out of caves…

  • ridingwaves

    man, sometimes I’m good at this….sometimes I’m bad…

  • ridingwaves

    my cousin was a huey gunner stationed off Vietnam 64-66 to rescue downed pilots, to this day he says the Broken Arrow distress response for the overrun 7th calvary was the most amazing thing he ever saw in his life. This coming from someone shot down 4 times in the DMZ and live to tell about it…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…he was committed, that’s for sure; Made his systems work bigtime.

  • Darkthirty

    And camel jockeys with it!

  • Darkthirty

    Just hit the 382 retrace, pretty shakey! Insane is doing stupid shit and not knowing better, crazy is doing stupid shit and not giving a fuck…….in other words…I’m in!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Talk about a chain-yanking, first huge over-pressures, then relative vacuum.

  • ridingwaves
  • OJuice

    You may have got your confirmed sell signal at the exact point that mole entered his long /ES campaign…

  • ridingwaves

    scary observation for going short is that the first risk off sector Biotech is very bullish today

  • OJuice

    High yield seems to be shrugging things off as well.

  • Ronebadger

    15 min chart…lower highs and lower lows…in 8 trading days

    http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/tenpp/4

  • ridingwaves

    but the case for shorts is growing too..
    https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-illusion-of-liquidity/

  • ZigZag

    True but if nothing “else” explodes over the weekend, we’ll be up 25 on /es

  • kim

    if that support goes, we might re-visit 2200 soon :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    2300 next stop

  • StockTalker

    You have to be insane to trade!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    such a pessimist.

    how about SPX 2328 by close, and call it a week?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80006584960

    TGIF

  • StockTalker

    Short through the close, one never knows:)

  • BobbyLow

    You don’t have to be insane to trade but it helps. :)

  • StockTalker

    lol, right!

  • kim

    Bears from yesterday got their lesson today, who knows what follows tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    tomorrow is closed DUDE.

  • StockTalker

    Markets closed, closing positions for holiday

  • StockTalker

    Houston, we have a problem

  • kim

    huh, ok, monday :)

  • Darkthirty

    No problem!

  • Darkthirty

    Got globex hours?

  • ridingwaves

    2270-80 will hold up well

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    2328 close?
    (ahem) – Nailed It.
    😉

  • Ronebadger

    Friday the 13th falls on a Thursday this month…that was a close one…

  • kim

    right about that one, can trigger at least revisit TOP again

  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet !!

  • Billabong

    Effective COB Thursday, 13 April 2017:

    While details are scarce, according to Direxion, the 3x levered cousin of the GDXJ, announced on Thursday after the close, that “effective immediately, daily creation orders in the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares leveraged exchange traded fund (Ticker: JNUG) are temporarily suspended until further notice.”

    3X problems?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-04-15/junior-gold-miner-etf-suspends-creation-orders-due-shortage-underlying-instruments

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t trade this one but it’ll be interesting to see what develops. The article says that this will not affect normal trades on the NYSE of JNUG. It is the “Daily Creation” – “Creation Basket” orders that are affected due to a shortage of availability. It also said that this might cause this ETF to trade at a premium.

    From the article:

    “In return for the creation basket or cash (or both), the ETF issues to the authorized participant a “creation unit,” a large block of ETF shares (generally 25,000 to 200,000 shares). The authorized participant can either keep these ETF shares or sell some or all of them on a stock exchange. . .

    For whatever reason, as of Thursday the above process for JNUG is now halted, and as Direxion notes, “should demand exceed supply during the period that creation units are limited, the fund could trade at a premium to its net asset value (NAV). This suspension does not impact the ability of investors to trade shares of the fund on stock exchanges.”

    IMO, Institutions are also trading a lot of these 3X’s because small players like myself are not generating the millions upon millions of shares traded each and everyday by ourselves.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb