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Encore!
66

Encore!

by The MoleApril 13, 2012

I’m way to tired to absorb Volar’s fabulous post right now but will make sure to peruse it over the weekend. Despite a slightly exhausted disposition I was able to scrape together enough Mole mojo to tack on a few solid setups here.

In case you care I am reporting today from a little manoir near the Spanish Pyrenees. The desk donning my remote evil lair gear only gives you a slight hint of the medieval surroundings I call home tonight. But on to the charts – we are getting near the weekly close:

Most likely we’ll get yet another inside day on the SPX – and I’m sure you all know what to do. If not please consult the Evil Speculator cheat sheet.

Sorry guys but the VIX buy signal is bust – over and out. We got the first two candles according to the rules but today’s pop higher kills the setup. Doesn’t mean the tape can’t go up here but there’s no add-improving VIX buy signal to hang our hats on. Next.

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Sugar is starting to look pretty sour here – at minimum it’s all shot to hell and may be ready for a bounce. I’m watching that hourly and of course the lower 25-day BB line for a chance to get long. May be best to wait for another candle – it’s a bit tough to step in here. Again, watch the hourly for an inside BB reversal.

Bonds are back at the 100-day SMA and I’m still short here. May be a good opportunity to add positions with minimal upside risk. Of course it goes without saying that a breach of that 100-day SMA would be bullish and get me to flip this setup.

USD/JPY – it’s starting to look like a floor pattern here – I personally prefer intricate tiling. I think a long here is permissible with a stop a few pips below. Le’s see if we get handed the run around or will be able to enjoy a bust higher.

Last one before I hang up my hat for the week – USD/CHF is almost back at the 100-day and a daily NLSL. The latter of which also lines up with the upper 100-hour BB on the left side. I say – come to daddy – and will try a short near 0.9228.

Enjoy your weekends!

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Yeah, today’s VIX is inside the BBs but NOT DOWN….Duh!

    “Important safety tip”

  • Anonymous

    Thanks Mole! Have a good weekend yourself..

    And your desk looks.. umm, cute. Really cute.

  • Anonymous

    Who’s calling today’s action a bear flag? 

  • Anonymous

    Certainly not a Bull flag:)

    Not much neg signal from the 5 min.

  • Anonymous

    selling pressure picking up…looks like longs dont want to hold for monday

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I’m thinking the VIX signal thing is the biggest cock tease on the planet.
    (sorry Tradingmom, not sure how to word it otherwise.)

  • Anonymous

    shame on you, using words she’s never heard before

  • Schwerepunkt

    I posed the question.

  • Anonymous

    Looks like the first div for the day.

  • Anonymous

    Im shaving half of my EUR/CHF long. Im beginning to really worry that cant do it.

  • Anonymous

    Potential Bearish Engulfing on the daily copper chart. 79% chance of a reversal, though we don’t really have much to reverse.

    http://thepatternsite.com/BearEngulfing.html

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes European mkts may be signalling a weak Monday

  • Anonymous

    Little under 1374 it is. yawns. And screw it! lets make Friday at 15:50 a nightie night test nearly..TO BE CONTINUED…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    End of week meltdown it seems
    The tape is weak, but are the leads weak?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the leads are weak and so is this F’n coffee.
    I’m outtta here.

  • Fibz

    Man I hate the weekends sometimes. No trading, boring!

  • Anonymous

    See you monday 🙂

  • Anonymous

    Fibz. Your my brother aren’t you? I find weekends boring as well. I love to trade.

  • Anonymous

    Even AAPL is closing near its LOD. Weakness in that stock is something I have been waiting for for months. When former leading issues start underperforming, it’s a bearish sign, that’s classical Livermore wisdom.

  • Matt Hastings

    Question on the inside day setup… say we close on the low and paint the inside candle.  Is a gap open lower the next day as good a trade as those that trade through the prior range intraday?

  • Anonymous

    There will always be the SNB on the bid at 1.20.

  • volar
  • Anonymous

     Yes, good point – must dust off that ‘Reminiscence of a stock operator’!

  • Anonymous

    Not looking like the Bulls are in control any longer. AUDJPY took out 84:)

  • Galazkiewicz

    Because gaps get filled, lowers the edge quite a bit.   If it does gap, could look for a gap open buy.

  • Anonymous

    What HG contract are you referring too? 

    My data shows HGK12 having a lower opening price (3.7200) than yesterday’s close (3.7205).  If it is a bearish engulfing that’s the one you want to take cuz it performs best after a downward breakout according to Bulkowski.

  • Anonymous

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f16281f0-d5de-4486-a05a-8b5dacffa7df/2012-04-13_1604.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/eb568c0c-e52f-4637-9c94-7b73b9fd922d/2012-04-13_1607.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/89165b91-50b4-4b1f-8e7d-6c9e201d8147/2012-04-13_1607.png
    Oh my goodness. Now it will be until Sunday until we know if this was a nightie night…This is very serious. If you set up the same setup that I have for the S&P daily chart you will see that past five years this thing does not do very well once it leaves sucker move territory. Be very wary of buying dips now. It has been a long hard drive since thanksgiving.

  • Anonymous

    possibly not, as gap opens can close somewhat. Better to take the entry on the futures, as the ‘equivalent’ price moves below the cash spx candle low.

    my 2 cents!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The leads are weak ? The fucking leads are weak? YOU are weak!

    😉

  • Anonymous

    I dont know. I do not think they will be able to hold much longer. Because what worries me is why haven’t they done it already (Move floor higher)? We talk about 50 pips not being much room for stops in forex, pairs fluctuate 100 pips easily in a day..This pair since late January as seen at most 150 pip range and only because of that blip in March. If not for that, only 100 pips in four months. This thing at times has hovered TEN little pips above floor past few days.. A blink of an eye pairs move 10 pips. The SNB may have made a big mistake putting floor.

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    copper might have an answer…

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=h1

  • Anonymous

    Spend some of that ill gotten gains senor!

  • Anonymous

     Spain and l’italy may be catalyst for a greek-style pullback

  • Anonymous

    Vichy Catalan… is that the official evil spec water? Talk about product placement ;-)! I am going to run right out and buy some…. if I mention evil spec do I get a discount? I am hip to the official band, now the water, maybe when Mole gets back we can get an official beer.
     
    I gotta say I am impressed with Mole’s travel posts (both quality and quanity) but I hope he won’t forget to enjoy life. Thanks for taking the time Mole.

  • Anonymous

     🙂 Great to see you enjoying your Euro-break!

  • Galazkiewicz

    http://screencast.com/t/mp61jyHoFL

    I’ve mentioned this indicator in the past that’s comprised mostly of PnF industry data.  Enough of those industries moved from demand to supply to generate a sell signal last night.  I mainly use it for my 401K, and have a method to re-enter the market if the signal is a headfake (risk mgmt is certainly req’d, as in any system).  It had been on a buy signal since 11/30/11.

  • Anonymous

    Totally agree about being impressed with Mole’s travel posts. 

    Moth is correct – Mole don’t worry about us Rats everything is cool here – you should be enjoying your trip and just forget about the markets they’ll be here when you get back.

  • Anonymous

    Mole – I’m going with Seu D’Urgell as your medieval lair.  Bishop is one of the two rulers of Andorra (the other being the President of the French Republic).  

  • Fibz

     I think the market could go up or down from here.

  • Fibz

    Seems about time time for Japan to print some more money.

  • Anonymous

    Mole, can you give us a Daily Zero update?

  • Anonymous

    No..Find a trail on a mountain, a wave in an ocean, a rocky ridge in a desert…nature is the ultimate healer…

  • Schwerepunkt

    That’s very interesting. Do you have a level where you get the signal? Is it the fact that the extreme buy dropped down and instead of reversing back up it went down? Is that the signal?

  • Anonymous

    Phew…looks like I missed an interesting day. Then again, not so sure I would’ve trade today’s ZL tape very well…

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    daily shows breakdown of flag. retest, then fail….

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=HG&p=d1

  • Joe_Jones

    Nice!!!

  • Anonymous

    I was looking at the continuous contract on TOS. Seems you’re right about HGK12, have to recheck later.

  • Anonymous

    hi

  • Anonymous

    hi what up with post, monday what do you think will happen

  • Anonymous

    been trying to do post for a while, test, hello 1,2,3

  • Schwerepunkt

    Hello. You need a bit more meat on your questions to elicit any substantive response. Didn’t Mole mention we have an inside day setup?  Hello?

  • Joe_Jones

    Spammer

  • Anonymous

    He is no spammer, but mole doesn’t like links to other sites in general, especially if a summary isn’t provided within the comment itself.

  • Anonymous

    I`ll call it spam because it is a shameless promotion “must read for all” with a link.  Sounds like a male enhancement advertisement fer C**** sake!

  • Anonymous

    Jesterx usually frequents hob site, so i know he’s a good guy, so the question is what consitutes ‘spam’/spammer – is it the content itself, or the intention of the person posting, or both. I suppose someone who is not a spammer by intent might still inadvertently post something that constitutes spam! (I will let the International Criminal Court rule on this one!)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    try my site, it will enhance your performance all month long!

    http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2012/04/april-rain.html 
    LoL

  • Anonymous

    Nice one!
    Lets see how the sunday futures hold up with your viagra-Ts!

  • Galazkiewicz

    It’s attempting to measure buying and selling exhaustion through the intermediate cycles that occur within a year. Normally, there are 3 or 4 of them annually.  If all industries are showing demand, it takes 5 to move to supply to generate the sell signal.  Once enough industries are in supply, it takes a single industry to move to demand to generate the buy signal.  In short, reversals down by 5 at the top are sells, and ticks up near the bottom are buys.  Certainly doesn’t work all the time, but ususally does a nice job of keeping me on the right side of an intermedite-term move. When it doesn’t, I manage risk to control drawdowns and have a method to get back in on shakeouts.

  • Anonymous
  • Fibz

     the only bitch around here is your mom.

  • Anonymous

    you – motherfucker . 

    i said it casually in a light hearted manner…

  • Anonymous

    Warning everyone now

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Start banning please – zero tolerance. I can’t believe this place is turning into the f..ing slope while I’m gone. Seems I may need new moderators.

  • Anonymous

    NEW POST!

  • Fibz

    i had to… lol