End Of A Long Ride
Like dominos, one by one, the doves at the Federal Reserve appear to have fallen over the past few months. The final and most important one is widely expected to at least tilt a little later today at 1:00pm when Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver her much anticipated speech. Equity markets have responded accordingly which brought a final end to one of the longest lasting rallies in which I had the pleasure of participating in my trading career.
From start to finish a speculative Hail Mary long campaign placed one month ago turned into a 110 yard touch down. I frankly don’t expect to see another one like this ever again. Even if you did not participate this campaign serves as a prime example of why effective campaign management is everything and that entries are secondary at best. Of course we all enjoy grabbing a contract just before it takes off but as the old saying goes among traders: It doesn’t matter where you entered, what matters is where you exited
Well, if nothing else for all of you who missed out this marks the day when you can finally stop kicking your nearest tree every time you see me raise my trailing stop by a few more handles. I can appreciate the sentiment but do encourage you to take preventive measures. We hand out a lot of freebies here but the good stuff is usually reserved for our intrepid subs. Can you afford not to be a member? Yeah, I know – I’m a horrible salesman… moving on.
Let’s do some updates. Natgas was posted as an entry to my subs a few days ago and it finally triggered yesterday as I was quite adamant about grabbing a long position on a dip lower. So far so good as it’s slowly working its way higher. The daily panel is increasingly resembling a floor pattern but let’s remember that we are dealing with the widow maker (which means small position sizing).
Silver just filed battery charges and is still recovering from a rapid fall off what we hoped would become the basecamp for a steady hike higher. Again I shouldn’t complain as I was able to squeeze out a little over an R plus I love to see violent shake outs like these especially when there is medium context looming below. I expect to give this one another whack in the near future.
Crude is on my watch list now as it’s tickling a combo of the lower 25-day BB and the 100-day SMA. There’s also a horizontal support cluster which terminates near 52. A quick slide lower to this and I’ll probably be all over this like a fat kid on a Mars bar. However it would have to wait until Monday as I’m not taking on any risk ahead of Yellen’s speech.
Corn also slid lower and is pretty much exactly where I would want it. I’d grab it right now to be honest but given the event risk today I’ll wait and see for now.
Soybeans is also a potential long if it holds in the general vicinity until Monday. That formation on the daily panel is just too juicy to pass up. Patience grasshopper, patience…
We banked a ton of coin this month and as it’s Friday I am determined to convert some of it into large amounts of my favorite liquid gold. This is to you guys!