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End Of A Long Ride
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End Of A Long Ride

by The MoleMarch 3, 2017

Like dominos, one by one, the doves at the Federal Reserve appear to have fallen over the past few months. The final and most important one is widely expected to at least tilt a little later today at 1:00pm when Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to deliver her much anticipated speech. Equity markets have responded accordingly which brought a final end to one of the longest lasting rallies in which I had the pleasure of participating in my trading career.

From start to finish a speculative Hail Mary long campaign placed one month ago turned into a 110 yard touch down. I frankly don’t expect to see another one like this ever again. Even if you did not participate this campaign serves as a prime example of why effective campaign management is everything and that entries are secondary at best. Of course we all enjoy grabbing a contract just before it takes off but as the old saying goes among traders: It doesn’t matter where you entered, what matters is where you exited 

2017-03-03_spoos_update

Well, if nothing else for all of you who missed out this marks the day when you can finally stop kicking your nearest tree every time you see me raise my trailing stop by a few more handles. I can appreciate the sentiment but do encourage you to take preventive measures. We hand out a lot of freebies here but the good stuff is usually reserved for our intrepid subs. Can you afford not to be a member? Yeah, I know – I’m a horrible salesman… moving on.

2017-03-03_natgas_update

Let’s do some updates. Natgas was posted as an entry to my subs a few days ago and it finally triggered yesterday as I was quite adamant about grabbing a long position on a dip lower. So far so good as it’s slowly working its way higher. The daily panel is increasingly resembling a floor pattern but let’s remember that we are dealing with the widow maker (which means small position sizing).

2017-03-03_silver_update

Silver just filed battery charges and is still recovering from a rapid fall off what we hoped would become the basecamp for a steady hike higher. Again I shouldn’t complain as I was able to squeeze out a little over an R plus I love to see violent shake outs like these especially when there is medium context looming below. I expect to give this one another whack in the near future.

2017-03-03_crude_watch

Crude is on my watch list now as it’s tickling a combo of the lower 25-day BB and the 100-day SMA. There’s also a horizontal support cluster which terminates near 52. A quick slide lower to this and I’ll probably be all over this like a fat kid on a Mars bar. However it would have to wait until Monday as I’m not taking on any risk ahead of Yellen’s speech.

2017-03-03_corn_watch

Corn also slid lower and is pretty much exactly where I would want it. I’d grab it right now to be honest but given the event risk today I’ll wait and see for now.

2017-03-03_soybeans_watch

Soybeans is also a potential long if it holds in the general vicinity until Monday. That formation on the daily panel is just too juicy to pass up. Patience grasshopper, patience…

happy_hefeweizen

We banked a ton of coin this month and as it’s Friday I am determined to convert some of it into large amounts of my favorite liquid gold. This is to you guys!

Prost!!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Great trading Mole, I rode some select bio symbols higher, stopped out of NG and a penny stock or 2…that was an unreal march higher…..wiped out a lot of bears, I think the 2350-2450 is going to be sticky for a bit…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Congrats Man.
    whatever you do, don’t try to recreate the feeling. That part of an addicts hook.

    Just keep doing what you do.

    http://i.imgur.com/nA6wSDw.jpg
    Grab life by the P*ssy, or run it down.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • OJuice

    Nice work. Now lets do it again, only with oil :0)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, I know you’re kidding about oil but should point out to everyone else that I don’t ever focus on a particular market. Some people get very obsessed about banking coin in a particular contract, which is a cognitive bias in its own.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I hope he knew about counter steering.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Great trade, Mole!
    Well played.
    My SSO is still in the running (+35%), but may not survive today…

  • OJuice

    I only say oil because of the PnF target. Similar to the ES trade. But, point taken on cognitive bias.

  • StockTalker

    time to scare the children.

  • AcoBrasil

    SPX and BRICS having a tough time letting go this morning.

  • Tomcat

    I am short $NG here. Purely based on weather models. If bulls are to prevail, March needs to be friggin cold…

  • Tomcat

    RW, I closed my short on IBB yesterday (after making my lunch money) and flipping to long with our favorite $AGN. If IBB can close above $300 for the week, its a very positive move for the next leg higher.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, this is so typical, as the indexes make new local lows into expected support, the contango built into volatility bleeds out. Its only if indexes fail in support that the fear then begins.

  • StockTalker

    Believe the hourly dictates today’s tape.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …oir lay-in a completely false sense of confidence.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m skeptical, hot or cold is small variation to the baseline demand.
    I’d be more worried as to whether China is manufacturing. THAT is where natural gas demand is most impacted. Yes?

    http://cdn.oilprice.com//images/tinymce/Tertzakian05010A.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m a bit waspish today, so best I check out.
    Have a good one rats.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/325f843323128da79b0bc7d76141485e321d1d3f0f4adb8edf7229b22fee93b2.png
    -GG

  • Tomcat

    China huh…is this LNG or CNG? how the hell is US exporting to china in large quantities? I thought china any export they get would have been from Russia…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Big Russia-China pipeline project (Power of Siberia) will take at-least couple more years to complete. In fact, China gets a small portion of their oil and gas from Russia, but it will change in a future.
    Presently, most of Chinese demand is satisfied by arab and asian oil, plus they actually own some oil fields in Canada. PRC will deal with anybody – they don’t care.
    Incidentally, USA gets a very small portion of our oil from Middle East, but it’s all we ever hear about…

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_of_Siberia

  • StockTalker

    Nice looking signal

  • Mark Shinnick

    Getting close to volatility crush…

  • StockTalker

    Think we sell off from here, VIX green today. Always trying to punish the short sellers.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its solid inflection area so I imagine we should see this resolving either way within the hour.

  • StockTalker

    Having trouble at VWAP, good indication

  • ridingwaves

    Their fields are declining, while their economy is finding some traction….

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-17/china-s-inescapable-oil-slide-is-a-record-breaking-gift-to-opec

  • ridingwaves

    IBB is looking bullish…but the sector is one of the first risk off sectors for money managers….so still a toss up with any substantial down move

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, the typical bet has been to crush volatility. Happening again at this point would certainly capitulate damm near all the bears.

  • StockTalker

    Not me:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Possibility of a bounce after Yellen – signal needs to remain positive.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff7b4b951d09e8af105f02d369d4b30c6bb4273d279588b1f870adcdc12203cb.png

  • kudra

    GDX turned positive for third time today. Third time’s a charm?

  • kudra

    short-lived. GDX looks like death.

  • StockTalker

    I would hold that puupy

  • kudra

    puppy is barking and biting.

  • StockTalker

    Don’t they all:)

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    Eeeny, meeny, miney, mo…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    ?????? ???????????, – how are my comrades?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Vols broke local support.

  • ridingwaves

    1220 support is solid….it will need a powerful hatchet job to drive it below, weekly pmo is bullish…daily not so much
    https://s17.postimg.org/lgseziuq7/GC_3_1_17.png

  • kudra

    showing some life here at $22.35. 22.50 will be the test.

  • evilasevildoes

    sitting on bears

  • Mark Shinnick

    Hmmm… looks like a bull BTFD trap. (Famous last words LOL)

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m taking over for Mole next week while he heads on holidays. Question – what would you rather me cover? I’m considering either a comprehensive explanation of how I read the tape or a sample exercise in building a simple system.

    I live to serve 😉

  • Edd

    The week you spent with us four years ago specifically concerning system building was beyond invaluable. I believe there are many here that would benefit mightily from the lessons you taught. All of the info from that time, printed out, was over an inch thick. Rather adept at it all now, but it was and is absolute gold. Reading the tape is important but without applying it in a disciplined way through a well designed trading plan is pointless imho. Really am looking forward to hearing from you next week Scott.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That was four years ago??? Jeezes…

  • Edd

    Time flies… Enjoy your time away, well deserved. Thanks

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m in total agreement. Something clicked when I met Van Tharp’s best traders in 2013. All of them were regularly doing 50-100% years and NONE of them could read the tape worth a damn compared to Mole and I.

    When I started quizzing them deeper many of them had some demonstrably stupid ideas about the tape, saying things like “now it HAS to recapture the 21 EMA” (an exact quote).

    What they did have was exceptional system building templates. Just a step by step paint by numbers approach to system building which has formed the basis of my approach (and much improved over the years)

    Of course our knowledge has moved on over the years, and Mole and I have discovered several gaping holes in the original method which we have attempted to patch, and several recent concepts which I believe are truly revolutionary.

  • sutluc

    I’d be interested to see your approach to tape reading.

  • TerpFan

    Scott,

    Would most eagerly like to see your approach to building a system!

  • ZigZag

    Tape reading, please

  • ZigZag

    Weird, some of the other answers didn’t show up when I first read this. I’m in total agreement about the importance of system building; and have downloaded and put to use many of your prior posts regarding system building. I just thought seeing your approach to tape reading would be interesting as well.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Great either way !

  • Ronebadger

    Mole’s traveling?!?!? I hope I have enough time to get my short bets in on Monday…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Building a system, please!
    If possible, not including currencies.
    If possible, on daily timeframe (so there are no trades during the night),
    or alternatively with trades only during market hours, going flat by the close of day session.

    Good to see you back – how is family life?

  • Scott Phillips

    I’m loving married life, my wife is amazing. We are in Hokkaido in Japan currently, travelling most of this year.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – you guys are incorrigible..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Clearly nobody will be missing me – excellent…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    He means ‘sever’.

  • Edd

    Na, kinda like the grandparents spoiling the grandkids for a few days visit. The kids love it, but eventually they are glad when Mom and Dad come back.