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End Of The Road?
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End Of The Road?

by The MoleFebruary 24, 2017

A slowing of the trend in the S&P 500 over the past few sessions has evolved into a more pronounced sell off overnight, and by the time you read this my ongoing E-Mini long campaign may have already met its maker. And that would be perfectly fine as we’ve been riding this rally way beyond expectation. And I mean that in a strictly technical sense and not an emotional one. A 3R or 4R winner is considered a very good run these days, especially given the increase in intra-day volatility over the past few years. More than double that should always be considered the rare exception, rather than the norm. That fact of course does little to prevent most retail participants from expecting to hit it out of the park with every single campaign.

Now if that reflects your general mindset then you may be better off in Vegas or Macau. At least there you get to enjoy scantily clad girls and cheap drinks while the house systematically separates you from your savings account. Which incidentally is why I always was surprised about the success of online gambling. Who wants to lose money sitting at home with your spouse breathing down your neck? If you are determined to gamble away your money, at least have the dignity to do it in style.

2017-02-24_emini_update

Now it’s Friday and I decided that we’re going to mix things up a little. I’m going to update you on our ongoing campaigns but will also throw in some longer term trend perspectives. The E-Mini as I said may be touching our current trailing stop near ES 2348. It’s been a run to remember and if only half of our campaigns would turn out this way none of us would still be here looking at charts. Except the Gold Gerb of course – he’s an addict.

2017-02-24_PnF_SPX

The P&F actually shows us near what once was a pretty outlandish looking bullish price objective of 2370. I actually posted that one a few months ago and I remember suggesting that we probably wouldn’t get there in one run and that we may touch it near summer. Well, so much for lofty predictions.

2017-02-24_gold_update

Whereas the trend in equities seems to be nearing its end gold may just getting warmed up. We got extremely lucky here when we entered Wednesday and it’s now time to advance our stop a little – I suggest that you keep it a respectful distance away until we see more context (i.e. a spike low or a continued run higher).

The daily panel incidentally could not look any more promising if it tried. After the breach of the NLBL at 1245.1 here’s nothing but air above us and if gold can maintain its mojo we may be able to ride this all the way into 1300.

2017-02-24_gold_PnF

The P&F panel however shows us a more humble PO at 1275 – in which case I wouldn’t be one to complain either. For now we’re positioned well and the rest is up the market.

2017-02-24_silver_update

I actually had split one R between gold and silver and fortunately the latter appears to be following the former’s example. I do however see a potential hurdle here near 17.73. If it can bust through that and continue higher then the odds of a medium term trend rally would increase markedly. But we’re probably at least a week away from getting there. For now let’s trail this one and wait for further instructions.

2017-02-24_cable_update

Cable actually gave us several entry opportunities over the past week and it seems that our patience may now be rewarded. The current stab higher grants us an advance of our ISL to a trail at < 1.246. As you can see the 100-day BB has been compressed and even more so the 25-day BB. Which means this one is coiled up pretty good  and a big move could be on the horizon. Hopefully it’ll resolve in our direction 😉

2017-02-24_crude

Crude has been a bitch on heels lately – shown above are the daily and weekly panels. IMO nothing good is going to happen here between 52 and 55. As a matter of fact the 52 mark is probably our best bet for a long entry as that is where daily and weekly context are forming an important inflection point.

2017-02-24_WTIC_PnF

The WTIC point and figure seems to agree, except here the 50 mark seems to delineate a support line which ought to not be broken. If crude can some day get out of the gate a run to 72 is in the cards. As always the trick here is to get a seat on the bus. Crude can be tough to catch as it has a tendency to wear out traders just ahead of a big move. A quality it shares with precious metals as I’ve pointed out on several occasions.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Gold & Silver up overnight?…..that’s just Cold… 😉

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eaFEYUahDA4

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m currently long whoever she is.

  • Ronebadger

    Good stuff today, Mole!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Thank you sir – got to keep my crew entertained 😉

  • ridingwaves

    Thanks for your post and thoughts, closed out L Volatility this morning.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners. Long ery from other day. Wait and see about vol and equities.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehehe – you guys…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…no breakout in miners….what to do?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Get the hell of of short miners for time being. Still could be the place to be but things are a bit erratic.

  • Yoda

    second that.

  • ridingwaves

    BB fom yesterday post, IBB has some resistance stacked up below at 284.70 and there is a golden cross today below at 278….

    starting to believe it might be the sector to hold up in down move….

  • Tomcat

    Agreed with my XBI long.

  • ridingwaves

    Have a lot of symbols in that sector…some starting to pick up momo…

    L ANY at .32 stop at .30

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Coming home from snowmobiling with Dick Rutan last night, this coyote was friggin right there ….moved over so casually no problem. Its still a good spot to be if thinking and able to move out of the way. Long volatility, nearing exit.

  • BobbyLow

    It’s been a long time since I’ve traded the miners and I’m still waiting for an entry in the slow lane. But if my memory serves me correctly miners are not always in sync with gold no?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    5 Distinguished Flying crosses, {respect!}

    He’s aged.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Rutan

  • Mark Shinnick

    He’s writing his autobiography, a excellent storyteller …yesterday’s driving maily about Vietnam stuff…always has a way of putting you right there in the seat with him. I think it will be a good book.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I am licking my chops here. Waiting for a long entry maybe in 1-3 wks. I would like to see the indexes consolidate/ drift back a bit. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/32ea27d3a12a8355d3c5d32901805600a9a1712cc6e97b34b580fb0f779a6e69.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    sold LN Mar calls, hoping to raise more cash for biotech, energy longs when the indexes pull back more

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Im really liking the relative weakness of miners vs gold. Good sign

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    still long LVS and liking how volatility is dying down. BJK index also looks ready to move up https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33634b3c42d24e325662a238312c8de372615f9f9dc2a384f54388ec0b5edbc0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    VIX, the candle body is *above* the 40ema.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd881afb3ac367d7d4343dfabfda74c62fa726bb2eaf03da35de91bbde2bcb11.png

    When you get to the end of the road..make your own trail!

  • ridingwaves

    correct, the sector can move down with averages even when gold moves higher…

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well, I’m repositioned into short miners before this little pop. Believe short still looks to be the place to be.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes, always remember a gold stock can be the worst of both worlds.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Pls get to that upper green line so I can short VXX!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Have a plan, trade the plan

    just remember, the last 2 out of 3 green band peaks, would have knocked your head off.

  • StockTalker

    Gap fill

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh meant green line would be trigger to start looking for entry not entry signal per se. Even if one enters at the green line if you buy enough time there is generally mean reversion barring multi mo contango in VIX

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Hey RW, curious how do you find these names? Are you using Finviz? I might allocate some in march to some of these in addition to XBI

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    That’s dogma

  • Mark Shinnick

    Eased out this whole thing for time being.

  • Edd

    I never, ever pay attention to Gold when trading miners. It has served me well. Now monthly opex, fed days of any type, and monthly NFP have to be watched for serious event risk.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Edd. That’s what I thought. I remember people saying that the miners led or that gold led and there were conflicting statements about this. However, what this all probably means that neither is correct and that the miners have a mind of their own.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems this time around evolving gold relative strength to $ is a factor; would be a game changer to my miners outlook.

  • Edd

    It was you Bobby that counseled trading oil by the chart / price action and ignore all the BS news. Kinda similar here. The one thing apart from all others that has made such a dramatic difference in my results is turning off all the news. Period. I don`t need to know and do not want to know why something should make something else happen. I am as pure a technical driven trader as I can be. I watch two vehicles like a hawk in two different time frames and I run my long short system. I don`t give a crap why they are doing what they are doing, and I don`t have a clue what they may or may not do next. It is peaceful and freeing.

  • Edd

    On a fundamental basis I would agree with you, but I avoid formulating any outlook for myself.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…the context for my own belief is just happenstance of what my models show, so I think for me its the models acting like a mental stabilizer to keep me oriented….sort of like instrument flying…pretty mechanical but providing a sense of emotional confidence in the technology that for some reason seems important.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    That’s a good angle

  • StockTalker

    5 min signal getting weaker

  • Edd

    Your always articulate and well reasoned commentary reflects someone skilled in analytical thinking. I respect that. That resonates with me. In my younger days I would have been adept at fundamental analysis and investing. In my older years, striving to be a trader, what once was an asset became for me a liability. I have had to learn to go against my very nature to embrace the idea that not knowing why price is or isnt doing something is in fact a great benefit to me.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, that more core emotional stuff always wants to exert itself but its really a lonely and insecure little imp who I believe is actually happy/relieved to have an adult take over….but its just-as-allways up to the adult to step in with the higher order tools.

  • BobbyLow

    Amen to that Edd. It seems like you have your system working like a fine tuned machine and that’s great!

    I’ve been working on my own Daily System with the miners and actually am taking my signals from NUGT. Ordinarily I would chart GDX and trade NUGT/DUST but there is enough evidence of a favorable difference that Charting NUGT works better for me at least under my criteria and time frame. BTW, under my daily time frame’s BACK TEST I would have only had 5 Miner trades using the daily for the past year with one of them still open and of course that being long NUGT. These 5 trades would have resulted in a Net 271% ROI. Of course I would have had to have a large set of Balls and Stamina to hold through the gyrations that these things go through. But if I was day trading, I would be going through gyrations as well. I’m still waiting to go short because my system would have been long from $8.76 (now at $11.63) so I missed the last long bus. :(

    OTOH, I found that Charting /NG on a Daily Basis without A/H and trading UGAZ and DGAZ. A lot of the same things apply here that applies to the Miners regarding Back Tests etc.. I was very late to the last Short using DGAZ but I opened a small position in it anyway because I can focus on its behavior a lot better when I have real money involved.

    Something else that struck me funny is that Gold futures trade apx 200,000 Contracts per day and Nat Gas Futures trade around 100,000 Contracts per day. This is while just NUGT and DUST combine for over 60,000,000 Shares per day and UGAZ and DGAZ combine for just less than 43,000,000 Shares per day. I believe that this amount of trading volume isn’t only coming from little retail players like me. The Big Guys are playing this stuff. This volume didn’t include all the rest of the ETF’s/ETN’s in these two sectors.

    Just food for thought. :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Getting close to a short miners upside objective here.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …when through it on the way to another objective…a let down for the gold guys?

  • Tomcat

    0.5R short ES here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    it’s enough to drive anyone to drink.

    Have a good weekend rats.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/815cac8171de6a2047831220592c0c9f247e39774cf323ba60682a0279c90c6e.png

    -GG

  • Edd

    Bobby,
    My daily system had 39 NUGT and 38 DUST trades in 2016. I exited every friday and re entered on Monday if appropriate, and I also traded this system while trading the same vehicles on the 10min chart. That means I have many exits and re-entries triggered intra day thus not a pure daily system. My wife is on me big time to stop the 10 min system so I will be looking into possibly reconfiguring my daily system we haven`t gotten to the point yet where I lose the arguement !. Plan on working on it this weekend. I`ll let you know what a backtest of that would look like. In the last 6 years I have monitored Gold miners, Energy, RUT, and SnP. Gold miners always outperform without fail. Energy and RUT will flip back and forth for #2 and #3 place, and SnP is always in last place. Miners always have #1 in volume. I used to trade all 4 now I have consolidated down to Miners and Rut.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…ery doing OK. Should be at resistance objective pretty soon.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I bailed 3 days ago.
    That feeling in your gut, when it’s not moving, and it’s a 3X fund?

    ah well, can’t win’em all.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exactly…a bit of a tough symbol. This upcoming resistance, 11.36 to about 11.44 could be another launch point zone.

  • ridingwaves

    NFP days are notorious bear raids….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    always another setup, like a train station.

    [possible XLE setup next week]

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffcb95732e8e0fa8b18c7a1e738be20599dcfc07532a3af2882a3e7a3263248b.png

  • ridingwaves

    yes on Finviz, a lot of reading too…

  • Mark Shinnick

    You bet…crucial concept !!

  • Edd

    Amen. It is still an awesome reaction trade, although not quite as good or as reliable back at the start of QE days. I never hold overnight prior to NFP, and I never buy the open on NFP day.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, at or near objective for today.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Mole and Scott getting themselves in the right mood to storm the playground.
    Mole’s on the right of course.

    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Funny – I looked at one of my old posts with that theme image yesterday.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You know it – we’re up to no good. And watch out if we get bored.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    News are a distraction at best and disinformation at worst.

  • ridingwaves

    took out small NG long based on bullishness here at end of the day..
    very happy I took my profit on L Volatility this AM

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exited ery at nearterm objective.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I was planning a similar record making flight but didn’t get very far. Should have picked uglier co-pilots:

    https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/236x/a7/81/6c/a7816cb6fd7e887137e4c4cae9b8e54d.jpg

  • Yoda

    Now we have it

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You’re taking NG on a Friday afternoon?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Small long vol at the close.

  • ridingwaves

    yep, bull train is empty, I like empty trains….1/2 R

  • BobbyLow

    I’m still short a small position via DGAZ with a stop on /NG at above 2.851 but will flip to a long if we close above my stop on Monday.

    Have a good weekend. :)

  • ridingwaves

    you too BL, going to be tough one as my favorite uncle is most likely leaving this world over the weekend….he was the one whom recognized my sales talent and helped me start that profession…..Cancer…..fuck that disease….

  • BobbyLow

    Sorry about your uncle RW.

    Hopefully he has had a good life and got to see you succeed.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ditto on the uncle.
    Lost my Dad just over year ago. still sucks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I chose it on purpose.
    Yep, I remember almost everything.
    Synchronicity.
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Keeping my toes crossed for ya.

  • Yoda

    lol

  • Benson Burns

    That was a nice escape for you!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Seriously – I would have kicked myself. But those spike lows have worked well for me as part of my campaign management for a long time now.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…betrayed by our own cells. Sounds like he knows you love him too.

  • Ronebadger
  • Ronebadger

    Rub it on sore spots…works like a charm!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Everyone should have their own convictions.
    Otherwise we’re just rats in the Matrix.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8dba214b8e2d3dbdb0c8ea6c978b950b8a0171fbdf5468fa8d2ba3bbae0e3323.png

    My thesis on waiting a few more weeks to start a campaign, is prudent. 😉

  • Darkthirty

    I prefer acquittals myself……..

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III