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Short Entries Triggered
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Short Entries Triggered

by The MoleMay 29, 2013

After having coded almost non-stop over the past few weeks (on top of blogging and trading) I am beginning to feel the burn. So I hope you forgive me if I make this a very quick update focusing solely on the equity side – which incidentally triggered the Retest Variation Sell entries proposed in yesterday’s post:

If you missed it earlier then the NQ may be your best bet right now as it’s still near the RTV Short trigger of 2,985. As you can see the strategy is already short with a stop right at the last NLBL – rather convenient.

And here are the spoos – already trading below the entry and if you missed that one – well, perhaps it’ll push back higher into the close. However strictly by the rules, even if we push back above the triggers we do have official short entries across all three today – on the NQ, the ES, and the YM.

The Dollar has been running in circles for the past ten days or so and this is a good example of a volatile sideways market.

I don’t have the DX over on the NinjaTrader side but I did pull up the EUR/USD for you guys. The three indicators you see below are my newest creations and are a direct copy of Ben Brower’s most excellent TradeStation indicators. The purpose of the exercise is to objectively measure market conditions – which means market trend, volatility, and current direction. The current reading of ‘bull/volatile’sideways’ tells me that the Euro is still in a bullish period but currently stuck in a volatile/ sideways cycle. Bear in mind that market direction does not necessarily equal trend but of course that also depends a bit on how you measure it.

A volatile sideways market tells us indecision with buyers and sellers battling it out in entrenched positions. Common sense suggests that whichever side loses this battle will be squeezed once a direction has crystalized.

In case you wonder – these three indicators will become an integral aspect of the CrazyIvan strategy I’m currently working on for the E-Mini (and which will become a subscription product in the near future). Most likely this one will run on a 15-minute chart and pick its entries based on carefully defined market condition filters. For instance reversal trades such as a RTV Sell may not work very well in a strongly trending market (i.e. bullish and volatile) – at least that’s what we’re finding on short term charts. Inside periods however seem to be more agnostic to market direction.

Words To The Wise: I’m looking across various markets today and it seems that the tape is intent on screwing with everyone – bulls and bears alike. So be careful, don’t get over exposed, and expect to be whipsawed around. That suggests small initial position sizing paired with pyramiding as your positions move into favorable directions. Don’t bet the bank here and don’t chew off more than you can afford to lose. Tape like this is designed to shake out weak hands before it takes off like gangbusters.

Alright – that’s it for today – see you all again tomorrow morning before the bell.

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Kerberos

    Funny how the American govt uses the same strategy in Syria as they do with the market. Just kicking the can down the road hoping the status quo won’t change. Trying to talk and manipulate everything better with words.

  • tradem4alpha

    The 4h charts on US indices looks very hammerish…

  • Sean

    Looks like the spoos are currently having trouble at the 25h/100h level, could be a key inflection point… Also, I am seeing daily and weekly sell signals (red arrows, with entry at a breach of the low of that bar)… additionally, a close below 1630 this week would generate a monthly sell signal (last one was June & July of ’07)… the next couple of hours could be very telling for the spoos…

  • strider

    very slashy today

  • Schwerepunkt

    Jack-the-Ripper would be proud.

  • Joe_Jones

    If you insist on being off-topic, at least try to be funny. One needs a chuckle once in a while.

  • strider

    they’re throwing molotov cocktails in Syria, not kicking cans

  • AmazingLarry

    Ouch!

    Nice gap fill on HL today. FSM got some love, too. Still on my hands here. Watching SAND.

  • Skynard

    Nice chart on EURUSD. No fun in volitle market, not to be bias although have to side with the dollar in a down trending market. P&F still pointing north.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good observation – my short term view shows us currently at an inflection point:

  • amokta

    We have failed to meaningfully breach the spx 1635-1640 on three occasions last few days. Possible new leg up in the market is the elephant in the room? Or is the dollar the kingmaker here?

  • Kerberos

    The US is going to lose Israel since it’s not doing anything to defend against Hezbollah. Not suggesting America sends troops, just saying how it is.

  • newbfxtrader

    Both have been moving together for a while if you havent noticed. Higher /dx = higher /es

  • Kerberos

    If you’re planning on going long mining and steel, war couldn’t be more relevant.

  • amokta

    Yes noticed , but just saying :-)

  • strider

    jack the price up for the 401k money that comes in at the 1st of the month? fund mgrs can’t miss out on a bull like this

  • Skynard

    Can not post, /DX IH&S 5 min.

  • Ivan

    Ask yourself the question of how many pushes up there have been since the initial fall … 3 x Spike Highs … versus one ‘thrust’ down … which side is getting more exhausted … imo trading is all about ease of movement … and aligning yourself with the ‘ease’.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I have SLX (steel etf) on watch list for years, still there is no bull market in steel. Doesn’t look like next war will be using tanks.

    Drones – thats a different story, I just can’t figure out how to invest in them. NOC and LMT both very strong, but not a pure play. Any ideas?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I’ve been fascinated with concept of “Ease of Movement” for years, but always find myself running in circles. Similarly – there are a ton of sell stops starting at 1630ES and below; also I assume a load of buy stops starting at 1660 and for sure above 1670ES.
    Market is chopping in a box, I don’t know which way is “easier”. Do you?

  • Joe_Jones

    There are plenty of blogs out there where your views on the current and future geopolitical climate will be read and appreciated, but frankly in my view your comments hardly provide an added value to this particular forum. We are trying here everyday to improve our trading using proven tools, rule based trading and unbiased technical analysis, and thanks to that this is one of the best and most consistent trading blog out there. Without Evilspeculator, I would have probably folded long time ago. So let us try to better our game and keep this place free of bias and obvious or opinionated views that have zero edge at banking coin at the end of the day.

  • Joe_Jones

    Coal and steel is sooooo WWII 😉

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Its a big world out there.
    Do you know that biggest African industry is cement and concrete producers? So un-sexy, but at the same time as real as it gets.
    How do you build a bridge without steel? Skyscraper? Rail road?
    Forget about Africa. Go travel 200 miles away from big city here in States – it all looks like Kentucky. Very depressing, run-down and rusted.
    SLX reflecting this reality just right
    Hope it will change some day – thats why I keep it on my watch list

  • Kerberos

    Keep telling yourself WW3 isn’t around the corner.

  • BobbyLow

    Well said Joe.

    I’ve been monitoring a lot more open positions than I’m used to so I’ve been totally focused on prices while keeping up with the posts on ES throughout the day. When I saw the Geopolitical stuff I kind of cringed but didn’t have time to craft a reply as tactfully as you did.
    Thanks

  • Schwerepunkt

    Word. (Hope).

  • BobbyLow

    And these views won’t help us make a dime. If we have WW3 were all Dead so who gives a shit?
    Probably enough said about this topic.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Correction: not an investment hope, just a human desire…lol

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    The problem with end-of-the-world bet is that you will have a difficulty collecting. Other than that, WW3 had been around the corner ever since the end of WW2

  • amokta

    Why are you so serious all the time :-)
    MIght push some folks to taking prozac
    Even Mole appears positively jovial in comparison!

  • strider

    there are problems all over that we have no control over. all we can do is make money.

  • amokta

    RBCN seems a good play, impervious to market drops right now
    Do i sound like a stock pumper? :-)

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    VIX step 1….?

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks BobbyLow. Much appreciated.

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Check out FNV

  • Skynard
  • Skynard

    Like that concept:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Wowser! On the flip side, that’s can’t be good for equities.

  • Kerberos

    Why does everyone think WW3 will be the end of the world if a few cities get nuked?

  • newbfxtrader

    Sure it can. USD and us equities are moving together now.

  • Kerberos

    I have a strong stomach.

  • amokta

    :-)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Temporary dislocation unless we see a sea-change in the markets, which is possible. I know it used to be the USD moved in tandem with equities, but that was a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.

  • Skynard

    LOL, ya that’s why I’m holding this MF:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    He has been a pretty good mood lately. Must be that time of the . . . year.

  • Joe_Jones

    it has a good potential tomorrow if 25d sma is breached.

  • Kerberos

    Can’t use planes with S-300 missiles pointed at them.

  • Th3_Acist

    Thinking long term idea, inverted hammer on CAD/JPY Monthly (if it stays around this level) Might be time for a break for the bulls.

  • ridingwaves

    Damn…what a day…2 stocks men’td this morning up big time..sector rotation commencing in 4,3,2, 1…

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • bullethead

    The change is happening. The dollar has been basing since 08. Commodity currencies should trade much lower over the long run, reflecting the end of the commodity bull that’s already underway

  • Skynard

    Will find out tonight 2130 hours, but AUD found resistance again at the 100 hourly.

  • amokta

    Remain market direction agnostic but don’t suffer from agnosia.

    What I find mysterious is some stocks flying high. Some stocks high and static. Some stocks dropping. What happened in 1999/2000 and 2008. Any similarities. Is the bull mkt continuing or ending. Is the market euphoric or dysphoric. Sti lot of bearish sentiment to be top ? Answers on a post card please.

  • amokta

    You been keeping low profile lately

  • convictscott

    You think too much. Last week I said to take the inside day long, and get short on the retest. You should be short, it is currently the bear’s game to lose.

    If the bears fuck it up then you should take long setups as they appear.

    Get it through your head. NOBODY on the planet knows what the market will do tomorrow. Trading is about being comfortable with uncertainty. Look at the evidence. We are in a long running bull move. Counter trend trades are a negative edge in bull moves UNLESS volatility is high in a relative sense. In the chart I posted the last time short setups worked is when volatility was high (above the 1 standard deviation 100 period bollinger to be exact). In this instance volatility is close to, but not above the 1 standard deviation mark, so taking this trade is an edge, but not a perfect setup. We have no bullish setups as yet, so no reason to exit the short. The move down stopped at support (I used a 20 SMA here but its no big deal what you use) which is entirely normal.

    From a logical point of view, if this setup works (odds around 60% in an unmanipulated market, probably around 55% here) you would expect the “dumb money” to be returned to where they should be, erasing the last 2 months of bullshit free money for the bulls.

  • convictscott

    Smells like a concerted effort by big players (of a central bank persuasion) to hold the line. Just a feeling, without much evidence, but the dollar is acting like it “wants” to go up, but is being held. Inflection point, great trades coming up on this pair soon

  • convictscott

    ^^^^^^^^^^^^^what he said!

  • convictscott

    don’t you ever shut up?

  • convictscott

    I’m a pretty average stock trader, but In the “healthy” stage of a bull move all sectors should move up together. When the market goes up, but with some sectors going down it is a sign that the strength of the bull market is weakening.

    Trends, however, have persistence.

  • Schwerepunkt

    That would make me VERY happy. ;-))~

  • convictscott

    Market has gone up 6 out of the last 7 months. In context the shooting star looks normal rather than a sign of potential weakness. I would suggest there are better opportunities out there than shorting strength

  • amokta

    Thanks for the detailed insight. I think I followed the long then short plan but only trading intraday on indices if day setups fall that way.

    There seems to be a lot more context and conditionality surrounding the setups than first meets the eye!

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I will not spit out the answer, but give you a clue.
    study past events. rumor is certain sectors went first, then others, then the rest.
    that may not hold water, but then again, how will you know if you don’t dig. dig dam it!
    -DG

  • amokta

    Thanks. Your up early? 9am Sydney :-)

    Trading 2.0 doing better account up 14% in 2 months but even a monkey can do well in a bull market! Still I think I am onto something now with principles learnt etc

  • convictscott

    Not too much, volatility is the missing link of the puzzle for me and is changing my game in radical ways. Standard Ivan logic (which served me well forever and is better than 99.99% of traders use) is

    “take every long”…”take every short”. Q. But what if you are long, and you get a short signal? A. Exit the long and take the short.

  • convictscott

    I like this :)

  • newbfxtrader
  • newbfxtrader

    Hey you beat most hedge funds!

  • amokta

    Thanks. This seems like something worth noting down for all those that use the Ivan cs setups! But did you did say previously that in a clearly strongly trending market to ignore or disregard counter trend setups or is it just that their edge is less?

  • amokta

    Vegas luck :-) Hedge funds have to worry about their trades moving the market. Mind you my trades seem to move rbcn :-)

  • Kerberos

    Nope. Also be glad I saw your comment since I don’t get replies to the throw-away email address. 😉

  • Th3_Acist

    True, but does a close below this months range change your mind? I’m just bouncing ideas around but in the past this seems to indicate weakness and a continued fall. Nothing I would actually trade on cause it’s a lot out of my depth lol, risk would be through the roof.

  • Daron

    You have to watch the Yen. It’s trading inverse of the SPX now.

  • Skynard

    15 min /DX break out:)

  • Skynard

    Hehehe, nicely said!:)

  • Skynard

    Big dollar brew-ha going on, may the best currency win:)

  • newbfxtrader

    @sky protect your aussie shorts. markets looking for a buy probably.

  • Skynard

    Sure looks like, see if the dollar has anything to combat that. /DX just back tested. If not will go long:)

  • AmazingLarry

    Word.

  • convictscott

    I think it is a buy if it gets above 96.70

  • convictscott

    Advice 2.0 :) Don’t look so much at the result look at the *process*. Do you have a stop on every position all the time, no exceptions? How is your position sizing? How do you manage exits? A standard method or do you change it up?

  • convictscott

    You need context. In technical terms the breakout is after an extended sideways period, since 09. It is unlikely that 4 1/2 years of sideways action then a clear breakout is over 4 months after the breakout.

    In an objective sense volatility is low and therefore counter trend trades have a smaller edge. It might work but there are better eating fish in the sea. Throw this one back and catch something tasty

  • convictscott

    Also, you may be better suited emotionally to forex and position sizing is easier for small accounts

  • convictscott

    Overall taking every setup both long and short in every market condition is a significant edge and avoids a lot of thinking and conclusion. This is what Ivan preaches and it works very well for him and most of his students are able to generate 40-60R per year.

    It is my contention that you can optimize for market type, but it gets unfuckingbelievably complicated.

  • Ivan

    From my side, I allow the market, sans indicators, to ‘tell’ me what is the current market type … and hence what lies immediately ahead … on probabilities … I trade the Equity Curve and that lets me know if Good Cop or Bad Cop ‘should’ come next … the Equity Curve also plays a significant role in my Money Management rules.

  • convictscott

    and it’s off to the races

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Trannys often go first or last.

  • Skynard

    Shall see how this turns out, quite a battle going:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s not setting the bar high (apologies to any fundies reading this – hehe).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You can teach a man how to fish or you can hand him a can opener.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Word!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yes – we are covering it all here – poco a poco.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We have recently learned a lot more and you guys get to benefit.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    We know and there is nothing wrong with a purist approach.

    But of course you must allow us young bucks (cough cough) to go out and explore a little for new pieces of the puzzle.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey I just work here..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wise words..

  • Skynard

    Should make for an interesting EUR open this morning :)

  • amokta

    Yes, great site here, plus zero indicator!

  • convictscott

    My life is now complete. Wanker

  • Skynard

    LOL, back to 96 level:)

  • AmazingLarry

    Another fake break and slam in /GC. Now back to former resistance. If it can just zip back up through the vol hole, it would have some legs.

  • Skynard

    Lol, dollar power:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD.CAD pushing higher going into US GDP, unemployment and CAD current account. Let’s see what happens on the other side.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ S H A K E N ¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Careus

    are you sure there is no buy setup present?What about last bar…