Now Reading
Epic Failure
223

Epic Failure

by The MoleJune 11, 2012

Alright, let’s not sugarcoat this. What we witnessed today may one day be entered into the annals of NYSE history as an epic failure. As usual I am able to back up my grandiose claims with some evidence:

Volume profile chart – so, let me get this right. We open above the volume hole with plenty of available volume to spare – turn on a dime and then we drop below the volume hole? Epic failure, which may have consequences unless this was the bull trap from hell. Always possible. But let’s keep reviewing.

Next is our Net-Lines chart which shows us trading below the NLBL we just breached last week. Bad spoos – bad!

My RSI_EMI chart has us back below the upper channel line. Could get ugly here unless we push above it in the next day or two. Again, this is not ZeroEdge, so I always consider this as a possibility. Wouldn’t be the first time. But for now this is looking potentially bearish.

Now the VIX chart almost is my favorite chart today – we actually dropped all the way to the lower BB line and snapped all the way back and then some. That’s not how you turn a rising Bollinger band. So far the bulls still have a shot but if we push back above 23 then it’ll be one fun summer for the grizzlies.

UPDATE Closing Bell: Incredibly we actually closed above 23 (and the 25-day SMA) today – EPIC failure!! Could reverse tomorrow but if not it’ll start acting like support again.

Bottom Line: The bulls absolutely need to pull the card out of the mud in the next session or two or the dynamics shift back to the bears. This is the exact inverse of what kept happening to the latter in the past few years and unless it’s being addressed immediately by flipping this into a bear trap it will have painful consequences. In case you wonder: yes, until we drop below 1270 or close above 1330 we remain in official limbo territory. Bring a raincoat.

No commodity setups today but I found something extremely interesting on the FX front. So now for something completely different:

[amprotect=nonmember]
More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
[/amprotect]
[amprotect=1,13,9,12,5]

So here’s the deal: For some reason I am seeing several pairs correlate on the hourly panel. Rarely see that and I think we should strike the iron while it’s hot. On the AUD/JPY we are at the 100-hour SMA and I see a nice quick swing trade here with little risk as all you need to do is to put your a few pips below the SMA. Yes, I would flip that sucker if stopped out and if the second hour closes below the SMA.

Exactly the same situation over on the AUD/USD. Same game and same strategy.

Cable may be joining the fray as well. Let it come down to 1.5480. And again – flipping this setup is a possibility but always remember it’s only a quick swing trade, no matter what direction it’ll fly.

One more for good measure – CAD/JPY. Almost there and by the time you read this it may already be at the SMA or in the process of reversing. Same deal here as with the prior three setups.

I rarely see things come into sync on the hourly panel – when it happens we should pay attention as those four pairs will probably resolve in the same direction. Have at it but don’t take on too much risk here as we are still in limbo territory. Things are going to be nuts for a few days.

[/amprotect]

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ronebadger

    YEAH, grandiose claims!    With evidence….nice…

  • Skynard

    Took one more trade on the combo div.

  • amokta

    Where is everybody.
    Mole is producing posts-a-minute, the tape is slip-slidin!

    One feature, currently is that commods (oil) very weak, but how come copper/gld/slv up?

  • ridingwaves

    people are figuring out that trillions more will be printed thru-out the world just to float the boat…

  • newbfxtrader

    Eh whats a few trillion between friends…

  • amokta

    Seems like it – at this rate, we will have to adopt the Lira as the new reserve currency (especialy if Italy needs bailout!)

  • ds2

    Looking like a Trend Day.  Mole, what did the alert say today?  No email : (

  • newbfxtrader

    hmmm I didnt get an alert….

  • AMCabrera
  • newbfxtrader

    Got out of that one early yesterday phew!

  • StrikeFirst

    So who is today’s price action hurting the most – bulls or bears?

  • amokta

    Ok, out of shorts – manual trailing stop hit – lets see if i goofed again!

  • AMCabrera

    yea, this pair tells me at best any position taken now will be as good as a scratch off tickets at the gas station. you might win you might lose.

  • newbfxtrader

    Bears will get hurt more. Doesnt matter. Just take the next FX setup.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *Market Close < 15 min*

  • ronebadger

    I can’t wait for the next C-Scott and Fearless report…. (no disrespect to Mole…I’m with you on today’s post…could have interesting consequences)

  • amokta

    DG is baaaack!!!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    so are Big red candles.
    okay, who FAT FINGERED it?
    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/panic-button.jpeg 

  • newbfxtrader

    yeah. whos got the big pockets here come on fess up.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no big volume on the daily SPY.
    it could have been JJ.
    😉

  • amokta

    Ridiculous, whenver i close my position, the market moves even more favourably, when i hold the market moves against me!

  • MidLife

    Did not get an alert either

  • newbfxtrader

    Tell me about it. Its like the markets watching you.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    get a Schrodinger cat.
    the trick is to not watch.

  • supervilin

    Holly molly, look at that zero! any knife catchers here?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Shhhh, fight club – can’t reveal the zero.

  • MidLife

    Those blue arrows killed today

  • ronebadger

    Check out today’s daily VIX candle…quite manly…and, it looks like a double-engulfing-something-or-other…..meaningful?  anyone?

  • amokta

    Im not a fan of the Copenhagen interpretation :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Oops, sorry about that. Didn’t mean to press that button.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In Soviet America – the market watches YOU!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    yeah, my advice to Husok to CYA days ago, was good advice.  can you imagine short covering at open today?
    then left holding the bag?
    (broken clock and all..)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    yeah, fucking hosting company apparently messed up my database. checky bastards… I’m on it…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Did any of you fishwifes realize that the VIX closed ABOVE its 25-day SMA again today? INSANE!! It jumped 10%!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Report to the dungeon.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, they are scalping signals and as such they worked. Just to make sure we are seeing them the same way.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    we need Volar, STAT!

    EDIT: I have a big T calling UUP (bucky) higher till mid July.
    suspicion there is another lower low, waiting for equities.

  • Joe_Jones

    Hahaha..I wish. I had an excellent day though. What should have happened was a dud, the reverse reaction was brutal.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s almost as if a whale (or pack of them) was waiting for the opportune moment.
    and then dumped it all

  • Joe_Jones

    fishwifes??? LMAO!!!
    BTW, where is the foul-mouthed mate?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    and the craziest thing about the VIX today?

    no economic news.
    http://finviz.com/calendar.ashx 
    the news don’t matter.
    LOL.

  • Joe_Jones

    Last Friday, the positive TICK number were really high, indicating greed and exhaustion buying.When I saw the retracement of the overnight trade this morning, I had a strange feeling that something was afoot, and  that it would require a lot of energy to lift the sucker further up. I took the short trade this a.m when ZL was not participating, hoping for the sling shot down. I need to be lucky sometimes to improve my avg.

  • Joe_Jones

    A sell the news event if you ask me

  • Joe_Jones

    I hope you kept your July puts today.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    VXV/VIX 1.0823
    took it in the face today as well.

    link for the newbs
    http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/06/vixvxv-ratio-sellshort-signal.html

  • http://pulse.yahoo.com/_IF7HINHIP5ITYT6TDHACMWJUXQ Huisok

    yah better to not be in a pressure situation as it can cause poor decisions.  Back in TZA with break of RUT 750 with fresh powder, will see……  looking to get some SQQQ if momentum build to the downside.  will see been whipsaw ever since mole gave the scalp call.

  • Th3_ACist

    AUD/USD approaching Hourly NLBL

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

    Buyer here.

  • StrikeFirst

    Still holding. Thank you.

    I woke up this morning fully prepared to take it up the a$$, but was pleasantly surprised at what transpired throughout the day.

    I’m in profit, and still holding.

  • Joe_Jones

    Hehehe, your time to give 😛

  • AMCabrera

    lol sorry ill keep it professional. eur/usd taking this one out too resetting no need to trade anymore unless I really want too.

  • supervilin

    inside day on EUR/AUD and USD/JPY

  • Th3_ACist

    Haha!

  • tradem4alpha

    the rut 2000 futures daily candle engulfed the previous 3 days candles…

  • StrikeFirst

    Give what?

    I don’t understand.

  • Joe_Jones

    opposite of “take” from your previous comment.

  • Fibz

    Unicorn meat, my favorite.

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole, please update the daily zero when you have some time

  • StrikeFirst

    Too kinky.

    I’m not giving anything.

    I’m only taking… taking profits!

  • MidLife

     FYI – the TrendDay alert was down again

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO! 😀

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Broad market played Honeybadger today.

    doesn’t give a shhh
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p73233598709 

  • Joe_Jones

    wow!!!

  • newbfxtrader

    Interesting!

  • supervilin

    took a short on USD/JPY ID trigger

  • simonn1080

    On our way to 1324 tommorow / next day…. is what im counting on…

  • AMCabrera

    BTW gentlemen let this big opportunity that I missed be a lesson. Let me explain why news does not matter and put this subject finally in the grave. Lets say I was a hermit crab and only came out to my computer screen to look at charts and trade. No tv no news feed nothing. I could have easily made 200 pips since yesterday. But my mental process was immediately tainted when I heard of a massive bail out. Now based on charts it was a obvious short, why not try one right? But no instead I try a long thinking that those trying to fade the rally would fail. THERE was the mistake. Caring about those fading the rally based on news..That was just a derivate of news trading. I lost 45 pips cutting my 100 pips up just because of that. It is not the 45 pips that I lost that is brothering me it is WHY I lost it that bugs me. Lesson learned however and moving on to eat more. 

  • matsou

    did something similar to you!

  • supervilin

    conclusion: it pays to be a hermit crab!

  • Skynard

    Yep, JBTFD!

  • StrikeFirst

    Good post.

    The REASON why you take a trade is perhaps more important than the result of the trade, win or lose.

    Know WHY you take a trade.

  • StrikeFirst

    Did you mean 1224?

  • thepercolator

    I respectfully disagree about news not being important, but not in a way that most think.  I never wanted to say anything because I know how everyone here thinks news is not important, but then I ran across this gem from Jesse Livermore:

    “…any important piece of news given out between the closing of one
    market and the opening of another is usually in harmony with the line of
    least resistance. The trend has been established before the news is
    published, and in bull markets bear items are ignored and bull news
    exaggerated, and vice versa.”  http://www.mercenarytrader.com/2012/06/a-traders-true-allies-making-millions-the-livermore-way/

    I agree it’s the reaction to the news which is important because it tells you the trend of the market or line of least resistance.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I was thinking about this today.
    The reason why basing a trade on news is dangerous….
    the assumption that the Market will adjust to the degree of the news coming out.
    missing the possibility that the Market has already priced in the worse case beforehand!
    if not even farther than worse case in a “gaming irrational fear/greed” setup.

  • Skynard

    Was stopped out of most longs. Snatching up /ES, /CL right now at these levels before the /DX opens of which am still short.

  • newbfxtrader

    Took profits on Aussie Sunday gap up but then reentered longs today which are still underwater.

  • newbfxtrader

    Trend was looking like up though. Moles post was “running with the bulls”. Dont see how you could have started this move short.

  • Skynard

    Was expecting that gap fill on /DX with a stop at 82.7. Hard to believe how much the /ES traveled today. Should have just stuck with my short this morning and rode it out. Oh well.

  • Skynard

    Wow! hell of a gap on the /DX, stopped me out and re-shorted.

  • AMCabrera

     I just went long NZD/USD about an hour ago.  Still have the USD/NOK. I retry a long in EUR/USD at 1.2530. I still have a bullish tilt.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. What I meant to say was news or not we were supposed to play it on bullish side. But things fell apart today. I cant see how you can blame yourself.

  • newbfxtrader

    Markets like a caged beast. Best to take profits when in green until we get above 1330. Chop is annoying.

  • Skynard

     Gaped to the 100sma BB on the hourly and is dropping, stop just above:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Took an /6A long instead. Lets see if this holds here or we plumb the depths again.

  • MrMargin

    Well, I think the important part about “news is doesn’t matter” is what you mean by that. I disagree with the sentence when it’s used in the sense of: “news has no effect whatsoever”. However, I agree with the sentence when it’s used in the sense of: “following news and trying to guess its effect on the market does not offer any kind of discernible edge when approaching markets like we do around here and thus is a waste of time”.

  • MrMargin

    The First Rule of Evil Speculator is you do not follow the news. The Second Rule of Evil Speculator is you DO NOT follow the news. The Third Rule of Evil Speculators is that in the markets there are no excuses [for not cutting your losses quickly]. The Fourth Rule of Evil Speculator is that you cannot count Waves. The Fifth Rule of Evil Speculator is you have to trust the Zero.

  • Skynard

    Still watching /ZS, Recently tagged it’ 61.8 and think it may have more legs.

  • StrikeFirst

    I just had an epiphany of my own.

    Folks –

    You only really need 2-3 good trades a month.

    That’s it.

    I see too many people here wanting to catch every move.

    You’ll drive yourself crazy.

    Be like the cheetah or the rattlesnake.

    Be patient… and then pounce.

  • StrikeFirst

    Slooooooooooow it down.

    Let the trades come to you.

  • Skynard

    Too late:)

  • newbfxtrader

    lol

  • Skynard

    Long triggered on EURUSD hourly NLBL.

  • Skynard

    /CL catching a bid now. Another unbelievable move today- 5 1/2 handles…Geeeez! That makes me even more bullish:)

  • thepercolator

    I agree you can’t guess how news will effect a market, you need to wait and see how the market reacts. 

    I trade a longer time frame than most here, so I can wait and see how the market responds to news before taking action.  I do this all the time in the ag markets.  For example, I did this with the May Cattle on Feed Report which was very bullish, but it ended up marking the counter-trend rally hi to the day.  If you remember I also told you about the very bearish Cold Storage Report for OJ in May which was unable to make new lows and reversed higher the next day – this happened to be a RTV Buy too.

    BTW – OJ has a double inside day.

    I added to my short position in stocks near the close today as this “news” confirmed the line of least resistance is lower.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    EUR/USD hourly bouncing off the 200MA for a nth time.

    geez, the moves are getting wiiiiide.

    OpX week.  gotta luv it.

  • Joe_Jones

    and tomorrow is Whipsaw Tuesday

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    I thought it was turnaround Tue, & whipsaw Wed?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    [Wipes a tear]

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Listen to your wife, exactly.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s right – all my fault…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually it has an effect – but it doesn’t matter.

  • Joe_Jones

    Jerky  but fast ride from what I’ve experienced in the past. 
     We’ll see what kind of candle we get EOD. My preference would be for a long red one (blue for the Southern Secessionist). Mr. Zero loves volatility and will be my gps tomorrow, as in any other day.   Sorry that you make your trading so much harder Mate. But I guess you have a reputation to maintain .
    As a consolation price, here’s an oldie but goodie.
    😉
    http://evilspeculator.com/?p=20948 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Will do.

  • Joe_Jones

    It is also your fault that I banked coin today Mole. Thanks for your hard work and outstanding analysis.

  • Fibz

    I can see the headlines now… “Analysts say Spain may turn out better than thought.”

  • Joe_Jones

    ES 1293 looks like a great intermediary target where I would call it a day or hedge long.

  • Joe_Jones

    LOL, I’ll be long  EUR after June 17th
    http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=367556 

  • simonn1080

    I didn’t even know June 17th was the Greek election.  On my charts from June 17th to end of June we go down down down..I guess that’s gonna be the catalyst.

  • AMCabrera

    Good morning fellas. Getting ready to drink coffee then work out then eat breakfast and kick some ass today. lets look busy today.

  • AMCabrera

    NZD/USD is taken out. time for me to start scanning.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    best to ignore or even go against Roubini DR Doom..

    found this chart

  • AMCabrera

    damn..what has been seen cannot be unseen.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I LOVE it – I fucking LOVE it – LMAO :-))

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Breakfast? Where are you located?

  • AMCabrera

    beautiful state of South Carolina

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    yes classic contrarian stuff ! ignore the headlines!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Right – I forgot you guys are three hours ahead of NYC 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    huh? I dont think so. Hes an early bird. By morning hes saying 4am or something!

  • MrMargin

    Good morning Mr. AMC

  • MrMargin

    @molecool:disqus 
    I vaguely remember you wanting to tell us about some goodies at this magic FX broker of yours some weeks ago. Any news on that end? 

  • AMCabrera

    yup.

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

     Doomtard

  • Schwerepunkt

    [oh my, was looking at the wrong day!]

  • Skynard

    Remember when crude was 140 bl? Fuel was hovering around $4 a gal. Now crude is 82 bl and fuel is around $4 gal. Go figure, guess that’s called inflation.

  • Schwerepunkt

    No, it’s just greed — and some issues with refining infrastructure. They have no problem raising prices based on the spot, but they do seem to have difficulty lowering prices based on the spot.

  • Fibz

    gas is gonna be $8/gallon when oil gets that high again. long bicycles.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Well, piss on those greedy bastards! Guess I’ll just have to get on that train with them. Most likely we’ll see $5 gal by the end of summer.

  • Skynard

    LOL!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Buy RBOB?

  • supervilin

    Added to my USD/JPY short this morning. looks like a good setup – an inside day near the top of down-sloping channel..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Hum, looks like a good choice!

  • http://profile.yahoo.com/X3UHQ24EPYQVH62MCJVJM4KIJI peter

     Have that on and like it, only my trendline has been broken to the upside and retested, so I’m not going large.

  • supervilin

    can you show your chart with that trendline?

  • Skynard

    Party Time!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    But but but we had added refinery cost! Wankers… bottom line is that consumers are boiled frogs and if people agree to pay $4 per gallon then why charge them less? 😉

    Check out this one: http://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/711fce97-af5a-48b7-b1b5-cfbc7988d7fb/00004226.png

  • Skynard

    Fucking Sheeple!

  • amokta

    Is the tape going to roll over, Beethoven?

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Most recent low has held. If this is a turd of a turd it could be quite impressive.

  • amokta

    Third of as third to the downside? – is it as impressive to the upside?

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Not that I’m counting, downside count has been invalidated:) Just saying

  • MrMargin

    Well, at least Goldman’s customers are long Spanish bonds.

  • AMCabrera

    Did Goldman have a report for there customers to go long Spanish bonds?

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks like the tide is turning. Adding some more shorts

  • tradem4alpha

     Is this a daily chart?

  • AMCabrera

    yup

  • MrMargin

    Oh yes, they did: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-sets-new-speed-record-facebooking-clients

  • Schwerepunkt

    I have noticed anecdotally that the period from 10am-10:15 ALMOST INVARIABLY reverses the current trend. It seems to be tied with all the $TICK-based trading systems, trend day calculations and such, which start at 0930 and go to 10:15. 

    Can someone back-test this? Seems like a big edge, at least for scalping purposes.

  • AMCabrera

    mazel tov

  • MrMargin

    Some very interesting statistics: http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.de/2012/06/historical-implications-of-mondays.html

    Apparently there’s quite an edge in going long here.

  • Schwerepunkt

    BTW, anybody lose a pair of lungs in LA?  LOL.

  • tradem4alpha

     Then it seems that the move yesterday is the biggest…this is a very clear message from the market, showing what it thinks about the bailout; I don’t remember which market wizard said something like the following (I’m actually paraphrasing): “if something happens that in general the outcome is very clear (the announcement of a deficit => currency should weaken; GDP above expectation => market rally etc), but instead the exact opposite happens (in the above examples: currency streghtens, market plunges), then this is a very clear message from the market”.

  • Skynard

    Added to /ES long on the 1300 test:)

  • Schwerepunkt

    muppet toss

  • Drew1985

    Enjoyed a sweet 50 pips on an AUD/JPY long from the ZeroFX. That thing is so money…

  • Schwerepunkt

    good to see you are back in the saddle.

  • Skynard

    Nicely done! Did you take the 5min signal from last week?

  • Drew1985

    Yup I did…but I used too tight a trailing stop and didn’t realise it’s full potential…

  • supervilin

    where you getting this data, if I may?

  • Skynard

    Bear Trap!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What signal – not today, right?

  • AMCabrera

    it aint no bear trap and it aint no bull trap. Just a trap.

  • Joe_Jones

    Stopped :-(

  • AMCabrera

    since following spanish 10 year is in vogue nowadays I just went to forexpros they had it there.

  • Skynard

    Call it whatever you want, if your short it will be painfull:)

  • AMCabrera

    lol. we will see i suppose no excuse me I hope we see something! Obviously, I would rather it go up since I have some scattered shorts in USD/NOK.

  • StrikeFirst

    “In case you wonder: yes, until we drop below 1270 or close above 1330 we remain in official limbo territory. Bring a raincoat.” – The Mole
    http://rezalution.ca/images/20071210_white_raincoat_rudsak_loreal_fashion_show_toronto.jpg 

  • Skynard

    You may see 1400 by the end of the week:) IMO this may be a blow-off style move. Have not seen such a move for the longest time. We could very possibly see new highs. That is where I’ll be looking to go short.  

  • AMCabrera

    lets just try to get today over with in green first.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    [SPX]
    http://s17.postimage.org/wgvg5jv2l/kiss.png

    or Keep It Simple Sky

  • MrMargin

    Not so sure about 1400, but 1350/1365 looks like a probable target on the daily chart. There are two SMAs, the upper BB and the 61.8 retracement. Still lots of fear and short interest in the market.

  • Drew1985

    No signal issued last night at 18:20ish EDT and then the prior one was from the 6th

  • Joe_Jones

    I got my blue arrow. Re-trying a short from here

  • MidLife

    careful – I’ve seen them come and go in a flash

  • Skynard

    Yes, do agree on those targets and do also see allot of short interest (bullish). When 1340 is overtaken many dip buyers will pile on for the summer.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    the /ES hourly 50MA is a few points higher (1315.6)

  • Joe_Jones

    Damn, you’re right. We are at 25 hourly sma on SPX. It may work. Have my stop 3 handles higher.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually wonder what the reliability of arrows is that wind up disappearing. Obviously the condition existed for a while but changed by the time the candle closed. Interesting concept if you think about it – we expect the condition to exist at the end of a five minute period, right? But it may have not existed for 4:59 minutes and then happened in the very last one – thus painting an arrow. Does that make it less or more valuable? 

    Another way of coding this would be to paint an arrow if the condition arose for a particular amount of time during that five minute candle. Unfortunately I have no idea how I would code that in something so basic as ThinkScript. Especially since they don’t have equidistant charts.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool
  • saints51

    Hope everyone has been doing good. Got a question for the pattern guys. On SPX H1, would you consider where we at a descending triangle in the making? Its the area between 1305 and 1335.52

  • Joe_Jones

    They seem to work better in conjunction with the zero, net lines and 25, 100 smas, and especially during whipsaw days. 

  • Joe_Jones

    pure skill… 😉

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Current support /ES 1310

  • Joe_Jones

    LMAO. I can’t believe people record such things

  • Skynard

    Timeframe?

  • saints51

    @Skynard looking at it on the zero H1.

    http://www.screencast.com/t/bgOoH9Pc8

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s holding for now.
    interesting, the 10min candle high tagged the 200MA!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed on the whipsaw days. If we get strong trend day alerts the probability seems to be lower.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    1308.25, ack! hairball! gag gag.

  • MrMargin

    Mole, would it be possible to implement some kind of notification akin to those ZFX alerts? Or maybe a simple CSV export of historical signals? I’m still reluctant to trade these signals without any hard statistical evidence regarding their returns and I’d really love to backtest them with different entry and exit strategies.

  • amokta

    What is $UVXY, and is it suitable for retirement portfolio?
    Is it front-running the indices?
    Are we in a STFR or BTFD mode
    (ive gone small short – what the heck)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    some days I wonder if you are a troll.
    do you not have Google in the QueensLand?
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UVXY 

  • Skynard

    Could be something to watch as a breach of that neckline (specifically 1305) will bring lower prices. On a larger timeframe we have an IHS pattern under development as well.

  • Skynard

    1308-1310 support.

  • saints51

    Thanks Skynard. 

  • amokta

    Thanks – Google charts dont’ say what UVXY is (had an inkling, but forgot details!)

    Was just looking at UVXY chart and saw that it had bounced up more than the spx had fallen, so wondering if spx might have further to fall!
    (edit reply to DG)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (sigh)
    ok, I’ll bite.
    UVXY is an ETF provided by Proshares.
    it pays no yield. 
    it’s an Ultra VIX, so unless you know VIX (like the back of your hand professional), I would highly recommend avoiding it.
    Ultra funds tend to depreciate like eggs on a hot day.
    The mention of retirement funds in the same thought makes me shudder.

    -DG

  • Joe_Jones

    I recently added JNK:TLT (1 min candle chart) to my tools. I find it quite useful to spot very short term divergences with SPX.

  • amokta

    Apologies – i was only being jovial re retirement!
    But useful info re ultraVix – might be worth buying at extreme low points
    I am just using it as a marker – but then i might as well look at the VIX itself (google doesnt have symbol for plain vanilla vix!)
    edit- reply to DG

  • Joe_Jones

    Your patience is astonishing

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    Baby gerbs.  Parenting carves it into you.
    :-)

  • MrMargin

    http://www.proshares.com/media/documents/ProSharesFactSheetUVXY.pdf

    Fund Performance and Index History
    Since Inception: -94.04%

    Correlation to S&P 500CBO Volatility (VIX) Index
    Since Inception -0.79

    Maybe I could interest you in some shares of my newly created $MADOF ETN for your retirement account?

  • amokta

    Ratio chart – i will need stockcharts subscription for intraday movements!

  • AMCabrera

    OH yea. DG I love you. Perfect wording too. “Parenting carves it into you” another one in the famous DG booklet i keep.

  • Joe_Jones

    You got to fork a little to make more

  • amokta

    Lol!
    Of course i wasnt serious re retirement:-)
    BUt does move well off lows (if one can time such)
    (reply to MrM)

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • AMCabrera

    (hands on knees out of breath) Guys! Reggienem is not getting into public finance, Government GDPs what have you anyhow I was wondering if he is anything of a indicator can I borrow 500,000 dollars to buy some Italian bonds.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    from a parent to a parent.
    (fist bump)

  • Skynard

    No Problemo!

  • AMCabrera

    Ok serious face now USD/NOK positions turning black as my face was turning blue. well well Skynard

  • Joe_Jones

    Recent high TICK number either says “muppet trap” or rocket higher

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Could not have said it better…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    He just likes to make people chat. I’m not even sure he has a trading account… 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is not Spanish. You can’t use problema without a verb in Spanish. You can use ‘no hay problema’ – and yes, it’s problema and not problemo.

  • Skynard

    Plan or reducing half /ES position @ 1320 area. Bull flag 5min:)

  • Joe_Jones

    no. Will check it out