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EUR/JPY Musings
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EUR/JPY Musings

by The MoleJune 21, 2010

Things seem to be escalating on the equities side, and it’s time to take a quick peek at conditions over on the EUR/JPY pair. Thirty minutes to the bell, so forgive me for getting right to the point:

Short term 5-min view on the FX pair. Don’t try to guess a bottom unless we breach that 20% mark from below.

The 30-min chart just seems to get started. But watch that green line – this is where the bears have failed thus far. If we get a breach here we may make it to the 20% mark in a jiffy.

So, I recommend you watch both time frames. A push through the 20% mark on the 5-min will indicate that this attempt has failed and that we start curling back up. If we remain embedded on the short term chart then we may have a chance to breach that green support line.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Tronacate

    TF looking to engulf every doji…….

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Hold on….

  • jigdaddy

    lets see if they hold this thing above 1103…

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    VIX up 11% from LOD

    Everybody bought your puts?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Zero is painting an interesting pattern…

  • n2thezonez

    We have moved down to an area with trendline support.

  • elliott_surfs

    just because pollock looks like bulls crapping themselves everywhere….

  • jigdaddy

    fucking shit, my subscription just expired yesterday and ive been too buys to renew today….thanks for the tease btw…

  • UayBalam

    Yes, it is a somewhat disheartening divergence if somebody was hoping that this last drop was it.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    AUD is @ gap support, if we dip bellow 0.8750 we`ll see 0.87 in no time

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Just for the day – and it's already late in the game. Tomorrow is another day 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I think the Zero just earned its keep for the day 😉

  • amokta

    and we close almost flat. expecting a gap up tomorrow, like today never happened?

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Here's an interesting trendline on the SPX

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=2&

  • UayBalam

    I recently subscribed and so far the system has worked great.

  • ricebowl

    Down a half percent, actually. Buying came in at the close to stop the bleeding, and bonds are still down. SPX daily is hugely bearish. Tomorrow could go either way.

  • Tronacate

    Nice work….

  • amokta

    ok, lets see the futures. at least a victory for a day for bears!

  • psycho_puppies

    Mole, “That in the context of that ‘doji graveyard’ on the SPX and I think we may be nearing a top in this current push up. A blow off top may still be in the works however –” Was this morning enough for you to call a blow off top?

  • Tronacate

    The russell engulfing speaks volumes imo……..however the lack of zero participation is bothersome…….

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Cheers

  • elliott_surfs

    I love it simple – $RUT channel http://screencast.com/t/NGIzYWU5

  • http://chartsandthat.blogspot.com/ ultra

    Hourly/daily Zero maybe has the reverse of one of those bullish down-spike patterns tho

  • BobbyLow

    Yes it did.

    When the Lite broke through the channel to the upside, I held out for VWAP which never came. Then the SHTF to the downside and I was able to take my the Short Calls I added this morning off the table for nice day trade profit. I'm pretty much back to market neutral with some Shorter term Calls balancing off my Long Term Puts.

    So let's see what tomorrow brings.

    Sometimes nice clean day trade profits are almost as good as sex. Please note, I said almost! LOL

  • Tronacate

    Keep posting that baby……nice work…..and SIMPLE…..

  • average_minimalist

    i would argue sometimes it's actually better (depends who the sex is with).

  • KevieKev1

    This zero sounds interesting. Any trial versions? Will send noodz in return.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • chronographics

    Nice line Ultra, have added two more based off yours, its not perfect but then its a daily and the time/price likely to be a bit off BUT it is very symmetrical. Cheers
    http://screencast.com/t/ODEyMTZmYTI

  • chronographics

    Time for a US Long Bond update
    http://screencast.com/t/ZjgzYTdh

    As you can see potential on the 120 min is for much higher bond prices, the Osc has turned from very low and prices have already moved up strongly, we now need to move above the recent gap and hold it.

  • chronographics

    EURJPY hourly chart
    http://screencast.com/t/ZjkxY2Zi
    Red Arrow – nice clean five wave down move
    Green arrow – choppy overlapping up move peaked (so far) about same level as wave 2 Green. Would get a bit excited if we see the Blue support line at 11.60/80 taken out

  • ricebowl

    An excellent summary. Don't forget that SPX has an engulfing candle, too.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It's 49 bucks – for anyone trading index futures that's the price of one handle on the E-Mini. If you get my drift… 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It would certainly fit the bill – especially with that immediate drop that followed. However, the weak Zero Lite signal is making me nervous.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I don't believe in auto-renewals. If it works for you then you'll be happy to renew – that's my philosophy. I will however consider a 3-month subscription – what do you guys think?

  • Tronacate

    Not much chatter about Rammstein, Geronimo….etc. What's up with those??

  • KevieKev1

    I have to get my current platform transferred to TOS then I will seriously consider it. Would be nice to give a little kick back to the house 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Tell them Evil Speculator sent you and you will get a lower commission. Details about that are on the evil.rat page (in the menu bar above).

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    EUR/JPY seems to be holding the line I pointed out – also about to push through the 20% mark on the 5-min.

  • ds2

    I just ran across this:
    One of the more noteworthy developments last week was the persistent decline in volatility. For only the second time in the last five years, the OEX Volatility Index (VXO) posted nine consecutive lower lows as of Friday’s close. This type of definitive drop in volatility has usually led to a flat-to-up market over the intermediate-term. Just looking for eight consecutive days of lower lows only turns up 10 occurrences since 1986…

    Eight Lower Lows for VXO
    06/17/10… S&P500 ???
    07/20/09… S&P500 +5.4% two weeks later, +3.0% one month later
    06/21/05… S&P500 -1.5% two weeks later, +1.8% one month later
    04/16/03… S&P500 +4.1% two weeks later, +7.6% one month later
    11/23/01… S&P500 +0.7% two weeks later, -0.5% one month later
    10/03/01… S&P500 +0.5% two weeks later, -1.2% one month later
    11/19/90… S&P500 +2.2% two weeks later, +3.4% one month later
    06/20/89… S&P500 -0.2% two weeks later, +4.5% one month later
    12/23/87… S&P500 -3.9% two weeks later, -2.6% one month later
    12/24/86… S&P500 +4.9% two weeks later, +9.5% one month later
    10/23/86… S&P500 +2.8% two weeks later, +1.2% one month later

    The most noteworthy point is the overall theme of limited downside potential over the next month. The S&P was up 3% or more one month later in 5 out of 10 occurrences and was never down more than 3%.

    Thoughts??

  • Clint

    Wow..just got back from a 5 hour meeting and see we sold off hard. I really thought we were gonna drift around in this mornings upper range.What the hell happened ? Guess I better catch up.- Certainly has all the blog chat lit up again. Bold predictions abound.-Even oil went south. Interesting to say the least.

  • http://sshamster.blogspot.com/ Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    was trying to make an hamster time and i could find no reason for this market to fall now (escept that it should have fallen already)

    we had 8 trading days that don't fit and now we should pay the price

  • gsavli

    “i could find no reason for this market to fall now”

    this could be exactly the reason for it to fall (not saying that will happen, though, just thinking out loud).

  • Clint

    You could be right. So is there going to be follow thru tmrw on the downside…or not ?-Hard to say…but I see some key levels held…so it looks like a coin toss at best for tmrw. The $SPX futures are flat so no clue there…yet. Good Lord !

  • UayBalam

    All I know is that Portugal is brutal!

  • spudthorpe

    Yes, I appreciate your no-hard-sell philosophy, but on the other hand the frequent renewals get tiresome. I'd be happy to have a 3-month option.

  • chronographics

    Agree perhaps you (Mole) could add a 3 month option to your renewal page for those of us who would like that option?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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