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Euro Campaign
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Euro Campaign

by The MoleDecember 14, 2017

Okay, it seems like the EUR/USD is on the brink of breaking out plus as you recall my hands are thrashed, so I’m posting this with minimal fluff or entertainment value and then fill in the post with additional analysis and thoughts over the coming hour:

2017-12-14_EURUSD_LT

The long term view on the EUR/USD is still looking solid after this morning’s deposit rate decision, much to my overall chagrin I must say. But it is what it is and the current touch of the 25-week SMA seems like a picture perfect entry opportunity to me. Should it fail then it opens the gate to a much more pronounced sell off, which given the current general sentiment appears to have pretty low odds.

2017-12-14_EURUSD_entry

The short term panel is already in break out mode and we’re now in one of those 50:50 situations, purely on a short term basis I must emphasize: Either it runs off here and the spike low on the hourly remains untested OR we drop back all the way to the 100-hour SMA near 1.178. From there we may be able to stage another entry but that’s pure sci-fi at the current time. For now I’m long ere with a relatively generous stop < 1.1793. Let’s see what happens.

UPDATE 9:05am EST: Interestingly we are now seeing a strong seller that’s producing a bit of a tug-o-war between sellers and buyers:

2017-12-14_EURUSD2

Being a bit annoying of course after taking out a long entry I’m a bit surprised as I don’t see any compelling news related reason for this, so perhaps something else is going on. IF you’re lucky and are catching this late then know that a long entry remains permissible until about 1.176. After that the odds start to shift to the bears, with confirmation of course < 1.172.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • StockTalker

    /YM short has triggered. -3 24700.Lets go /NG!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NG – you are a brave man (or woman – or attack helicopter, or whatever you identify as)

  • StockTalker

    No ticky no shirty

  • StockTalker

    Break of 24650 brings a quick trip to 24550.

  • Darkthirty

    target 2662 ES

  • ridingwaves

    they shouldn’t call NG a future, it acts like a past tense wannabe 80’s MILF

  • StockTalker

    Ha, nice steady climb. Weird

  • StockTalker

    Time to short /NQ, S 6440

  • Mark Shinnick

    Is there a credible rotation into resources beginning?

  • StockTalker

    I see this shakeout b4 every winter season and it takes off like a jet airplane.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be vapors but my vol and faz are holding, tight stops.

  • StockTalker

    EOY profit taking about to begin, or should I say end of a 10 yr profit taking?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Looks like a lot of that happening bitcoin.

  • StockTalker

    That is gold doing that, how TF you pay your bills for XMas with Bitcoin?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Looks like this is not my lucky day!

  • Mark Shinnick

    Do commies really do Xmas?

  • StockTalker

    Lol, good point. W her name came out yesterday and put a curse on.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Ban hammer stands ready for any ???????.

  • StockTalker

    Lol, Geeez. Can smell him.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….and we just never know when the crowds may suddenly appear. Its ancient memory and no basis, but seems like most of the best downside came when nobody was looking.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    nobody expects the Spanish….never-mind.

  • StockTalker

    /NG, time to run baby! Emptied the entire bus on that move, WTF

  • Mark Shinnick

    A reminder of how lopsided things really are…thanks CB’s:
    “I am 35 years old—the oldest millennial, the first millennial—and for a decade now, I’ve been waiting for adulthood to kick in. My rent consumes nearly half my income, I haven’t had a steady job since Pluto was a planet and my savings are dwindling faster than the ice caps the baby boomers melted….”
    http://highline.huffingtonpost.com/articles/en/poor-millennials/

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • StockTalker

    /YM back test, could be significant judging /NKD weakness.

  • StockTalker

    Very nice!

  • ridingwaves

    just opex week with a rate raise….seems like a lot of pinning the tail on sp500 in play….

  • StockTalker

    Lol, ya you would think. Was reading yesterday that markets were bullish on a rate hike. Geeezzz

  • ridingwaves

    banks love it….more money, more money, more money….sheep shearing is a good business

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    OMG, exactly. Looking forward to seeing my account at the EOD.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    my L SQ bid hit yesterday., could have even bought it lower, I think it has a run in it….check it out
    first target 40, second level target 50

  • StockTalker

    Fingers crossed for a ramped down trend day!! Lets go B$$$$

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Loser of the Day
    ABM

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Starting to look ugly…

  • Julie

    GG F Yes ! GE down 8 cents on a very small probe.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    That back test says it all bro. Nice long red candle would be great.

  • StockTalker

    /NG shorts beware!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    That reminds me.
    I was driving home yesterday, and spotted a large Dodge Truck with a vanity plate. CAT D9. I kid you not.

    So 15 min later, I spot a Ford F-150 truck with plate frame
    https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/41Z37cAl9mL._SL500_AC_SS350_.jpg
    and Washington plate. ok, not exactly Oregon, but close.

    Freaky. Is it a sign? should I short CAT? 😉

  • ridingwaves

    there are none..they are in the Hamptons partying already with JLO and Alex

  • StockTalker

    That’s a good thing, party on! WTF, nobody at the prop desk? If that is the case time to pile on.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Maybe this price action is just enough to get some “retail” bears stirring back into the kill zone. When Mole mentions “suspect”, that’s valuable guidance.

  • ridingwaves

    opex and tax loss selling is deceiving for some…..no need to go short until after xmas…

  • Mark Shinnick

    …spoken with the confidence of having judged the wave sets for the day.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Counting money ?

  • ridingwaves

    no waves, but no reason to short via my lens….might bank a little coin but too tricky with opex tomorrow for me…

    the waves at OB though have been on fire….no winds, no rain, just offshore groomed A frames

  • Mark Shinnick

    3x bio short does has a interesting near setup right now….

  • ridingwaves

    they are pinning the bio indexes beneath of near 100sma for opex…..this sector is so ripe for a bull run I should be giddy…but nothing is written in stone….in Bio it’s mostly written on dilution

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…looks like a interesting juncture of some kind around here.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Darkthirty

    Front month option straddles…..5pts =2X

  • Julie

    Stocktalker I always look for pattern recognition UNG below the Keltner Channel and a reversal candle (bullish kicking) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/080bc3f29b096d23db323f3577cc2698a9cd2aeb2c7efec35a030446a09fd618.png or candles (morning star) Hammer ; bullish engulf etc has led to a bounce Patience my friend JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bears must have chronic tinnitus.

  • HD

    There’s the 10 handle hit from yesterday’s HOD!

    Have a good Christmas and EOY all.

  • StockTalker

    Just starting bro,

  • Julie

    You Too HD
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    …when no one is looking. Maybe a juicy distracting news event is being prepared.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Green by EOD

  • Mark Shinnick

    No wonder we’ve been selling out the future no one wanted to confront in the first place.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, I will be going out for lunch.
    so count it as a mini-MOle vacation.
    tank baby tank.
    😉

  • ridingwaves

    there ya go, FCC repealed net neutrality…..

  • StockTalker

    Agree

  • Julie

    GE Patience …. Patience … Patience ….. Institutions are testing for supply @ 17.50 level prior selling climax. The test is on less volume and smaller candles (momentum) First crack in armor will be a bullish close above the daily 5 ema and Ichi Cloud conversion line (8) JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c73138b8dc90132f1bd719fb05d0bb702075ca41c2d4aa47db692bfcb66d8b79.png

  • Julie

    GG Lunch is not Bon Appetite Below ?
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick
  • StockTalker

    If /YM 24600 does not hold we will go on a journey today. Think of a nice place. Took profit /NDK and added to /YM and /NQ for MCHammer.

  • StockTalker

    When the market shows her hand you trump her.

  • StockTalker

    Buy order /YM 24550 for a bounce

  • ridingwaves

    one view of outcome

  • StockTalker

    Cancel that, fighting it now. Just remaining short. 24600 has some relevance here

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yup – on every fork we take the wrong path. Almost systemic at this point. Looking forward to retirement on some remote island while the rest of the world digs its own grave.

  • StockTalker

    Let me know, will join you with my 55′ catamaran.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…one being regulatory, the other ant-regulatory. Seems like “net neutrality” is a fancy notion established upon a marketing misnomer?

  • Mark Shinnick

    …”no man is a…”

  • ridingwaves

    miss her no more is part of the political landscape class 101

  • Julie

    Would like to see CAT bust down thru the lower trend line ; 21 ema and Ichi Cloud baseline (21). Target the upper cloud boundary and 55 ema. Then a bounce to a shorter high for a longer term short.JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45cca7e1beca2cfa0afdf86febe652ce6c2fa2602f083fbdba69632eac1203f1.png

  • ridingwaves

    the euro campaign seems to be smoothing out for Mole….

  • Mark Shinnick

    vol pop. see what happens…

  • StockTalker

    Watching 24550 /YM, if that fail game on.

  • Mark Shinnick

    RCGR …imagine that !!

  • StockTalker

    Long 24540 for a pop

  • StockTalker

    S 24563

  • Darkthirty

    Watch 15 on rsi 5 $INDU 60 minute

  • StockTalker

    Make or break right here.

  • Darkthirty

    yup, 2:10 on EOD ramp to VWAP

  • StockTalker

    I am a bear today, lets go

  • Mark Shinnick

    Seems to be getting some crack in here..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Nice to imagine as posible, anyway.
    https://youtu.be/TYh1lRR1m6Y?t=24

  • StockTalker

    If it fails, First stop /YM 24400

  • Mark Shinnick

    That HY scene is really no joke.

  • Darkthirty

    whacking the VIX

  • ridingwaves

    if you loaded up on XIV and rode it out from 2009 bottom, your gain is 7000%…give or take a % or 2

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    Truly Evil.

  • ridingwaves
  • Mark Shinnick

    His story applies to trading. His stats were down and he went for a hail mary beyond his ability to control risk.

  • StockTalker

    Not going to grace us right now, remaining short though.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Keep eye on HY, no joke there.

  • Mary

    He wins the Darwin award …

  • ridingwaves

    the video was tough to watch, it looks as though he was worried about the edge being slippery to begin with when testing it……nuts…

  • BobbyLow

    Good Afternoon Folks,

    Been out most of the day and got stopped out of my Oil short for +.28R while I was away. No big deal but I suppose that’s better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I flipped over to Long Oil after I got home and I’m hoping we don’t get stuck in a tight ass range between $56 and $59. I’m also still long Gold and that might develop one way or the other by sometime tomorrow. I think. . .:)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now his family has lost his ambitious potential. A lot of street people in China, way more than I expected to see.

  • Julie

    Stalktalker SPX 60 min chart Presently a bounce off the 60 min 55 ema. Actually I am looking a little lower to the upper cloud boundary ; lower uptrend line and the 60 min 89 ema for a bounce JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a386b8e9458f0e4db959827bebca5a122453c5284a5016bd897701dd752ad74f.png

  • StockTalker

    Getting sold, collapse after hours.

  • Darkthirty

    382 retrace won’t last long IMO

  • StockTalker

    Yep, go bitch

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Time. Check.

    Cheescake Mmmmmm.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    The NDX was down 0,07%. We should sell all we have and go live in a mountain hut with 1000 tins of hermetic beans and armed to our teeth while this all plays out to its bitter end.

  • BobbyLow

    Why the sarcasm? I think you fail to understand that most of us are relatively short term traders and really don’t care if the markets go up or down . I understand that you are a long term investor and that’s fine. You seem to have a problem with those of us that short the markets from time to time. I think that I can speak for most of us here and say that whatever you do with your money is your business. Perhaps you could show us the same courtesy.

  • Mark Shinnick

    That’s just Øyvind’s latent vandal sense of humor…nothing personal BL.
    Maybe he secretly wishes for the good ol’ rape and pillage days ?

  • Yoda
  • Mark Shinnick
  • StockTalker

    Made 5k yesterday, can you do that?

  • StockTalker

    /NG last chance

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Would say 10:1 right now

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..to the upside?

  • StockTalker

    Yes sir, if history repeats. daily about to rock hard.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Added 2.678

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I concur.
    but if you are incorrect.
    prepare for 2.53
    -my 2 therms

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NATGAS&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p53470710719

  • Yoda

    Hourly zero signal looks über bullish

  • StockTalker

    Not incorrect, that’s a fools game.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Strange. I thought that trading NATTY is “a strange game” in which “the only winning move is not to play.”

    would you prefer a game of chess?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    Not good at chess, good at math.
    strange bird indeed, but can be profitable if played correctly.

  • StockTalker

    //NG full inverted, 2.666

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners, tight.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Backed-off.

  • Yoda
  • StockTalker

    +4 now on volume, by far not my best trade but should leave shorts quickly.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “There exists no financial risk in the world.”