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Euro Dramarama
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Euro Dramarama

by The MoleDecember 5, 2016

Don’t know about you but I just about had it. The constant drama is exhausting and it seems that not unlike adrenalin junkies many of us, including the MSM, have utterly become addicted to it all. At minimum it has created a thriving global industry which is feeding off of the hysteria and taking advantage whenever and wherever possible. It seems that since the turn of the new century our collective lives have increasingly been plastered with a litany of drama, degradation, and depression. Across the board, politically, economically, financially, socially, as well as environmentally the West has somehow managed to stumble from one major crisis right into the next, whilst making one bad decision after the other. All of which assuring that nothing gets fixed and that various incumbents are be spared from making politically inconvenient decisions. So we slog on, doing the same things over and over again, expecting different results.

2016-12-05_euro_drama

And the Euro is  just one example. When watching the ongoing Forex drama over the past few months I’m reminded of a brilliant quote in the second season of Fargo made by officer Lou Solverson played by Patrick Wilson:

There’s a look a boy gets when he’s been shot or a… or a land mine takes off his legs, and he’s laying there in the mud, trying to get up, ‘cause he doesn’t feel it yet. His brain hasn’t caught up with the reality, which is… he’s already dead.

Fortunately I have been spared the horrors of watching my comrades die in battle but that quote comes to mind when looking at the chart above. The Euro project is dead but somehow none of the major player is able to realize it. Meanwhile the hits just keep coming. Almost every three months or so on average we get treated to some massive move which then quickly reverses after having touched pretty much every stop placed in the immediate vicinity. And I don’t expect things to get any better anytime soon, especially with a slew of elections coming up over the next two years.

2016-12-05_eurusd_lt

Not sure if I can offer any ingenious solutions to this mess, except perhaps to crowning me king of Europe and letting me clean up this trans-European mess with an iron broom and a high velocity steam cleaning tool reserved specifically for Brussels, Paris, and Berlin. In the interim however keeping your exposure very limited ahead of critical economic or political events remains key. So let’s review some of the symbols which survived the Italian referendum:

2016-12-05_6b_update

Who would have guessed that cable would be the one quietly steering higher? Last week’s entry on the 6B futures has already been retested and now it’s time to move our stops to break/even. My preliminary price objective here is 1.28 and hopefully a few ticks higher (or pips if you’re playing GBP/USD).

2016-12-05_soybean_update

Soybeans seems to be attempting a break out and I’m all for it as we’re also long since last Friday. We’re barely at 1R but I think it’s permissible to move our stops to break/even now. This one does not have a PO as it’s a trend trading candidate, which means that it may be at the cusp of breaching its upper 100-day BB and making a run for it.

2016-12-05_silver_update

Finally silver which I posted about not twice but three times to my subs about last week. This one isn’t out of the woodworks yet but I very much like the accumulation of volatility and the coiling pattern. I think this one has decent chances of breaching those daily Net-Lines and pushing higher toward 17 and beyond.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Billabong

    Your opening paragraph – 3 days, 3 hrs, 3 mins. Next up Greece and debt relief.

  • ridingwaves

    Or France, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, India, China, Brazil, Mexico, Canada, US…..
    Bizarro world is one hot global event….

  • ridingwaves

    the widow maker seems to have some legs and long term wants to recapture the $5-6 area…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I am of firm opinion that “slog of constant drama” has been just like that since… forever, but had never been televised just this good. Ever since I saw a plane fly into a tall building… live… as it happened… I got so hooked up to news – it took me 10 years to realize what’s happening, and another couple to break the addiction.

    But really, it’s nothing new. As society and markets progress thru time they experience trials and tribulations that are not predictable by using forecasting tools available. Every next crisis is bigger than the one before, but every crisis leaves learned experiences (patterns) and safeguards (laws and regulations) that preclude anything like that from happening again… except it does, but not how one would expect based on current knowledge.

    Read this page from 1889 WSJ and tell me that I’m wrong :)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a56a5fb0b3a6c22bcb46a6a36a55d096dd404ecd20ff20bc061f443b6ab39164.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    let me pile in, 1864 – Civil War, and somewhat fake news

    http://hoaxes.org/archive/permalink/the_civil_war_gold_hoax

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +1 for the HFT.

    nothing new under the sun

  • kudra

    GDX trying to bounce back from another beat down.

  • Yoda

    EURUSD looks bullish S-T at least

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    If it doesn’t have anything to do with gold – do you trade it? 😉

  • kudra

    I trade it. I was short GDX over the weekend via DUST. cashed out the short this morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    This is a good place to close my $ES position to ensure I am not on the opposite side of Mole. I should go back to sipping mojitos. Much more enjoyable…:)

  • Yoda

    LOL, so true

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are safe buddy as I’m flat in equities.

  • Edd

    Ha!, different strokes for folks as they say. All I trade, everyday, all day long is gold miners. I know the key for me is a trading system that took two years to refine, and the discipline to follow it with meticulous attention to detail. (thanks to you and Scott) Used to trade crude at the same time, found these old eyes and brain cells didn`t have the ability to trade both without negatively impacting each. Now just a laser like focus on the one. Just closed NUGT for 3.5R, Earlier 2 DUST trades, .94R gain and a .11R loss. Anyone can do this if they are willing to show up and do the work.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Mojito, I’ll have to try one some day.

    Sentiment is on the fence for me.
    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BPSPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p98858568345

  • ridingwaves

    past 2 weeks have been down in morning, up in afternoon…record delivery day for Shanghai exchange last week….29 tons in one day…..

    the Chinese love the london Ny paper traders, just helping them add more to a growing stockpile….

  • Tomcat

    I am not sure about $5 or $6, but let’s just say, if you are right, your next 10 mojitos are on me…

  • Jay Thomas

    Speaking of market manipulating hoaxes, I highly recommend the novel Big Money by P.G. Wodehouse. It’s funny enough that even a German would laugh.

  • ridingwaves

    yes, I think I could drink 10 mojitos….Used to drink them at Long Beach bar while looking at attractive Spanish ladies….

  • OJuice

    Fed meeting and OPEX next week. That might be exciting.

  • Tomcat

    My position is not so large to afford you looking at attractive women, but we can work something out 😉

  • StockTalker

    Lower high

  • OJuice

    VIX got smashed pretty good. It might just float this week into Thursday ECB meeting.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Gold lovers everywhere, rejoice!

    I got buy signals all over gold mining sector – from majors on down, led by FNV/RGLD royalty stocks (always a good sign).
    This buy is based on weekly indicator and triggered above last week’s high.
    Stop goes under last week’s low… and hold for dear life

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    when $1200 is crossed, I’ll be right behind U.
    😉
    until then, review Q2-2015, months of nowheresville.
    sincerely,
    Wet Blanket

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Unfortunately, I don’t run indicator on gold – it just acts terribly.
    Silver is more orderly and has a buy on it too…

    EDIT:
    Just realized, looking at Mole’s entries on a chart above –
    HE probably made that buy signal for me.
    …markets…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We are actually in silver – I posted it several times last week.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I know :-)