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Euro Fighting For Survivial
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Euro Fighting For Survivial

by The MoleDecember 8, 2016

This morning I had to hold off parsing my symbols at least until Draghi was done bitch slapping the Euro around. And I’m glad I did as the wild swings haven’t been pretty, largely thanks to the fact that ole’ Mario is a skilled grandmaster at flapping his lips without really saying anything substantial. Which of course is was one of the reasons they gave him the job in the first place. Among today’s highlights are “uncertainty prevails everywhere” (you think?), “need for structural reforms” (what a novel idea), and my favorite “risk of deflation has largely disappeared” – emphasis on largely.

2016-12-08_eurusd

As you can see the Euro keeps getting slapped lower near its 25-day SMA with daily support waiting near 1.05 and 1.06. However that’s only half of the picture.

2016-12-08_eurusd_lt

The long term view shows is at the 100-week and 25-week SMAs the latter of which is now in the process of crossing below. There are also two monthly Bollingers (25-m and 100-m) which are converging with price dancing right above it since last month. A drop below here would be rather fatal for the Euro and most likely drop it down to par or worse.

2016-12-08_spoos_update

Meanwhile things have been increasingly effervescent on the equities side. You may have missed our post session video wrap up last evening and if you want to know how a bonafide trend day looks/feels like then I strongly recommend you check it out. We’re already calling it the 2016 Krampus rally and if you snagged our Tuesday long entry then you probably are looking forward to celebrating a bountiful Christmas right now.

2016-12-08_6b_update

Update on the British pound which unfortuantely stopped out us at ~1R yesterday.

2016-12-08_silver

Silver is still in play fortunately as we spend quite a bit of effort getting positioned near the lows. For now I wouldn’t touch this campaign except for advancing my stop a respectable distance away. I have an inkling this one may just finally manage to make a run for it.

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2016-12-08_6b

Yes, the British pound futures again – you may play the GPB/USD if you prefer of course. My entry is here with a stop below 1.257. Of course if you’re lucky you may be able to snag it further below.

2016-12-08_aapl

AAPL is a short here until it is a long. See the campaign instructions on the chart. Reason for my binary perspective is seasonality courtesy of our friends at Financhill.

2016-12-08_aapl_seasonality

Once again you can click on the chart for a dynamic view. Seasonality is a mixed bag in the near future – it’s supposed to be soft in the coming weeks but then ramping up in January. My daily chart above shows it curling up near its 100-day SMA which is currently pushing sideways. So we may just have one more surprise sell off in store for us. Either way I’d be long after a ramp followed by a retest of the 100-day SMA.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AcoBrasil

    Thanks for throwing in the Silver update.

  • Yoda
  • AcoBrasil

    Stopped out of UVXY for a nice quick 7%. I will look for a possible reentry if Spot re-tests the bottom – which it typically does.

  • ridingwaves

    AVXL could be interesting today….I’m in for a trend play..Phase 2 trials are saying this might be the only way to help Alzheimer patients….being held back by Trumps bio slaughter house rules…

    L at 3.85 S at 3.60

  • captainboom

    RW, you had mentioned OSIR in the past, and the article on the guy’s foot was interesting. I’m guessing you’ve stopped out of your position. I’m curious your opinion of the possible delisting news in the link.

    http://www.osiris.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-12-2-NASDAQ-Extension-Granted-FINAL.pdf

  • ridingwaves

    I played some of position as a scalp but still hold most it, bought more down here. Chart is now about to turn bullish..long story on this symbol but I do believe it was all done to let whomever wants to buy it get in at lower PPS.. the whole accounting issue has been drawn out by experts at this kind of stuff. the float is so small and half owned by insiders that the MM’s have done about everything to destroy retail ownership….they made prelim earnings restatement for that initial pop a month ago….they doubled revenue in 2 years….they have 2 contracts in place with their 2 biggest competitors SYK-(I think 1 of these is the buyer) where they are selling OSIR knee replacement products instead of their own.. on prelim numbers it should be valued at 12PPS right now…I’m in with a substantial position and keep adding, long term hold for me…if they go private it would not affect my position….

  • ridingwaves

    widow maker seems pretty tame for such a bullish NG report….

  • AcoBrasil

    A few stocks that I follow ramped up very quickly immediately following a delisting. Could be a good way to unlock value.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Mole this is new. Didn’t know you trade individual equities now

  • StockTalker
  • Yoda

    LOL!

  • ridingwaves

    17 million float is small, a old man told me to buy revenue growth long ago…the pps will catch up…..during this whole mess, the company is accomplishing some great things, 150 million potential patients added on growing insurance coverage, military sales arm is now slowly replacing rival with whom peer reviews ment’d they can’t compete etc…plus they are mentioning platform….and have multiple products in play already…

    I’ll take 40pps on buyout….hard to find growth like this in bio space so cheaply priced….

  • ridingwaves

    might be building for large move above 4 now…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..stick a T in it.
    😉

  • StockTalker

    Very difficult to find buyers at these levels.

  • AcoBrasil

    The revenue growth story works better for some companies and sectors than others. It certainly didn’t help CHK, PBR, or VALE.

    Too many investors these days are not giving enough value to cost controls.

  • ridingwaves

    well, where is your T chart?

  • kudra

    no shortage of buyers for the $RUT. IWM up over 15% since Nov. 8 close.

  • ridingwaves

    true….but it will work here once whomever the big whale is gets there fill of this symbol, its all good says my guru stockpicker below….I’m going to start a movement called occupy ticks….those bastards were thick on last weekends hike here…

    https://s30.postimg.org/3pfeylssh/DSC_0249.jpg

  • Ronebadger

    SPX … AND … VIX are up

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    in natty?

  • ridingwaves

    2250spx seems like a lock now….
    the reason the market is rising right now is if Trump gets his corporate tax break of say 10% not 15% like he wants. The SNP at today’s current valuation multiples would be 2450 with that 10% tax break….

  • ridingwaves

    yes, quit slacking…weekly might be more telling…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    LOL.

    Free of Charge. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7099e53e3bc8d0388b512e1175f96a3726bd1e7812f7c0a71be39563d32caf88.png

    next week
    don’t forget the standard 25% cut to MOle.
    😉

  • kudra

    IWM has $140 written all over it. But then what? Seems like a front-loaded rally.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    for the curious, that’s Time, not price
    IMHO, 3.15 is about fair price. if you insist.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    imagine if you were still short from early this year.
    {shudder}

  • kudra

    No one’s selling, at least not til next year when capital gains taxes may be lower.

  • Ronebadger

    VIX is cranking

  • ridingwaves

    I think smart hedging is happening right now by the big boys….
    the fed .25 raise should be pretty tame….but a .50 raise would be a nice ride down to 2180 area again…

  • StockTalker

    Look at UVXY and VIX, fake! Beware!

  • kudra

    Interesting. I hadn’t considered that they could go .50. Seems unlikely given their track record, but the landscape has changed since Nov. 8.

  • kudra

    I was short the QQQ and then GDX back in february and got my face doubly ripped off. Shorting IWM has not hurt me until recently. yep. I’m currently in a lot of TZA and hating myself. May not get a let up in this rally until next year.

  • ridingwaves

    I would say 4 is on the way….the weekly is more pertinent….

  • kudra

    It seems the Trump + Republican Congress is being interpretted as ushering in a new era of growth and prosperity via lower taxes, deregulation, smaller government, and stimulus spending. So a market propped up for the past 8 years by monetary policy is now going to soar to new heights based on fundamentals and a titanic shift from bonds to equities?

    ^^^I know none of this is important to trading, but it’s curious to ponder.

  • AcoBrasil

    Spot is closing in quickly on V1. I wonder if it will last given the divergence with the market. I seem to recall something like this happening in late 2012 or early 2013.

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m not so sure this will translate into a market crash. Seems more like hedging to me.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not unusual – after a big ramp the EXPECTATION of volatility goes up. IV describes forward looking volatility, not what happened already.

  • StockTalker

    Been waiting patiently for a blow-off rally, How many years now? 8 years of conditioning:)

  • AcoBrasil

    How many years now?
    I hear you. Closing in on 8 now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ridingwaves

    yep…plus that scenario gives great cover for the fed to raise rates to use as the backstop for the next time they need to lower when all this govt. monetary stimulus gets heated….

  • ridingwaves

    this good get hairy for the shorts right now….

  • StockTalker

    Best shorting opp all year now that the bears are broke!

  • stuped
  • stuped
  • stuped
  • StockTalker

    Picked up some /GC

  • Tomcat

    I think I hurt my eyes trying to decipher the text

  • ridingwaves

    bury the shorts operation in play

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That chart brings me back. (I used to wave count back in the days)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What type of counting is this? It’s not EW.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Sold 1/2 Jan ITM XOP, COP, IWM calls from pre-election for 60+%. Still holding VXX Jan/ Mar DITM puts which are up almost as much.

    Bought some GLD 114 Dec 30 calls @ .44 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3552fa19c6b9d9e4c1b63dbbf784d530671b8d73a27091d2c13e9cc3a545671.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    VXX https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3c8d8d4eba74d56bb03ea569807d07585c9c1ed3e8bf96adc7d4cdcd3d84ab5a.png Now – still think we can drop further but I am wary about how far we are above the bollinger on daily and weekly + Santa has seemed to have arrived a little too early

  • ridingwaves

    Nice GLander, Nice….

    RIP John Glenn….now there was a frikken stud of a man….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda

    Somewhere a handful of remaining bears just came in their underwear. ;o)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Trend-lines were meant to be broken, even at this magnitude!!
    😯

    https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/23999002/ackbar_400x400.gif

  • Yoda

    Maybe I should consider buying some SDS tomorrow for “just in case”

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    this could go another year. (Ack! Gag!)

    either by fibonacci levels (black), or simple gann box linear average.(pink)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3dbe61c73c5805ef379bdc8c8350e9f10beb185fc98fcae49fa3e88cf2af1f13.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    surely you jest.

    I’ve seen front month OTM options last longer. he he.

  • stuped

    12345 for 1 3 5…..put the line on any 2 and it breaks on 4 and that is what ew says……figuring that line took me years….now its right there….out of my last 60 plus scalp practice trades…i lost twice….that means nothing as it has only been 2 weeks on this new method….got to do it 100 times to know and starting over tomorrow….

  • Yoda

    Oh, if I trade short, my holding period is rarely more than a week.

  • Yoda
  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Def made one today. I havent found the low print to be reliable though but worth watching.
    For sure when fear is high and we get sustained periods (4 days+ like pre-election) above the green line, almost all of the time there has been mean reversion and recovery in equities

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8690f8653271e170370a6ec064a184d1e45a47cf1693c95cd88103e48e80c918.png

  • AcoBrasil

    Silver getting tossed around like a rag doll this morning.

  • AcoBrasil

    Buying some TZA in premarket today. Nice BB break yesterday on sky high RSI reading.

  • Billabong

    Daily BBs closing … move in the making?

  • Billabong

    Depending on your time frame, why did you buy TZA when it mad a new low yesterday?

  • AcoBrasil

    GM Billabong. Its a hedge. I am planning on selling sometime next week.

    I was referring to the $RUT chart. Being a leveraged ETF, TZA making a new low is inconsequential. $RUT posted an upper Bollinger Band break at overbought RSI read on the daily. Weekly chart shows RSI at just under 70 (historically high) and another Bollinger break.

    $INDU chart looks even more bloated.

  • AcoBrasil

    Let’s hope its an up move 🙂

  • Billabong

    Thanks for the response. I appreciate what your saying and use similar tools myself. The CCI still hasn’t reached 200 and shows room to climb. The one thing Scott taught me many years ago was to follow the trend first and foremost until it ends. I’ve found that markets can stay OB / OS for a long time with no rational for it (e.g. financials). The one Scott lesson I still haven’t learned is that reversals / DCBs cost money…

  • Billabong

    Closing BBs on a lower trend would bode well for an up move.

  • AcoBrasil

    Understood and I am definitely familiar with the trend lesson. Bottom line is that I’m not certain $RUT has hit a ST top yet, but its definitely close. I don’t typically hold these short ETFs for more than 10% anyways. I’m mostly a fundamental investor and am mostly angling for the next leg up in several Brazilian stocks (which unlike US equities, represent deep value on a 1-2 year timeframe).
    As always, I appreciate the insight!

  • AcoBrasil

    There it goes.

  • Billabong

    It’s good to hear. I’ve brought my position sizes down over the years. Now I run 6% positions within an R computation for risk. Size is adjusted by a few % depending on volatility assessment. As a swing trader, I also look at fundamentals with an emphasis on TA. Being in Brazil, you have insight to the national Brazilian market and where it is in the business cycle.

  • Billabong

    It looks like $17 support. A few more days with $17 as the floor and we’re in good shape.

  • Billabong

    DX higher and USD/JPY new high. $ driving the markets this morning.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..one of the many reasons I return here.

    long discussions between mature traders.
    (glean glean glean glean)

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III