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Everything Must Go!
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Everything Must Go!

by The MoleSeptember 13, 2012

I am not even going to justify what just happened with a comment as I am supposed to keep things family friendly around here. If you caught yesterday’s post then you already pretty much know where I’m coming from. And the only thing left to say would be ‘see, I told ya so’. And I hate it when people say that, so let’s move on and try to be productive. To that end I have dug up a few interesting charts – not much in terms of setups but we approaching a few chalk lines.

The first one, courtesy of Señor Bernanke, is the spoos which went from limbo to resistance in 30 seconds flat. That unfortunately is the only technical resistance I see on the horizon right now. [UPDATE – we are already at 1455 and thus far resistance has been breached.] Don’t get me wrong – I don’t care if the tape goes up or down – I have no dog in this fight. But I do care about technical setups and that’s all she wrote for the time being, at least on the resistance front. There are no volume holes anywhere near either. As a matter of fact the volume profile is looking like the Gobi desert and we are officially trading outside the usual time/space continuum.

Even more interesting is my NYSE volume ratios panel. I pointed out a very low range a few days ago and was startled to see that this very phenomenon has continued all week. And if you think this looks a bit abnormal then let me show you a bit more context:

Here’s the 90 day 1-hour version – I have once again circled the last five sessions. So, given where we are trading I cannot help but wonder if the patient is dead and nobody told him. Either way it’s just a matter of time when rigor mortis is going to set in here. If anyone has different data then please send it over.

As expected ole’ bucky remains to be a sucker for punishment. We have now reached the lower 100-day BB and if dip buyers don’t put up a bit here then I may as well ask mys subs to start paying me with Monopoli money. The only currency worse off these days is the Iranian rial which has been dropping by over 5% for several days now.

Long positions on the Dollar however may be a bit premature at this point as the EUR/USD (and other pertinent pairs) are still completing their advance. I think 1.30 remains my current target and after our recent entry I am holding a few tickets all the way.

The one possible setup I managed to dig up today is soybeans which jumped higher yesterday only to hit the wall at its brand spanking new NLBL. We are still chewing on that one today but I think there’s a possibility it’ll breach. Either way – I’m using the NLBL as my long/short inflection point – right now I’m long with a stop below. Happy to flip it if it drops below.

That’s all for today. Keep it frosty and let’s continue to focus on the charts.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AmazingLarry

    ANR breaking.

    Next stop for crude ~$100? Bobby, you got your ears on? 

  • badflightrisk

    We have reached escape velocity

  • BobbyLow

    Yup I hear ya.

    Actually, we could see 106 or greater.  I went to cash a couple of days ago to get through Benny time.  Plus I wanted the time to practice with Futures and Forex with a clear head.  I’ll wait until Monday to decide if I want to get back in or not.

    http://screencast.com/t/Sk1hii03g 

    In the mean time, I think I’m going to throw up because this morning I had a choice to go Long /ES in my Real Account or my Practice Account.

    Well I chose the Practice Account and I just got stopped out for a 22 Point Gain.

    The money looks great in my practice account. It’s just too bad it’s only Monopoly Money.   :)

  • AMCabrera

    needless to say job report days will probably be getting more volatile going forward.

  • ridingwaves

    85 billion a month is figure as they will continue twist operation also….heck we are losing 190 billion a month so printing is going to last for years…

  • badflightrisk

    Figure how many jobs at $20 bucks an hour it takes to break even on 85 billion a month. 

  • newbfxtrader

    Closing aud/usd nzd/usd longs. Shorting nzd/usd.

  • BobbyLow

    Here’s today’s Employment Report.  

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ First they blame Hurricane Isaac. Then they write hundreds of words.  But in the report there is one sentence that doesn’t quite match up with the way the rest of the report is spun.

    “In sum, unemployment claims remain stubbornly high and are not pointing to improvement in payroll growth or the unemployment rate.”

    Don’t worry be happy.    :)

  • I Bergamot

     Take it from me. DO NOT trade real money until you hit a string of losses in your paper account. Believe me, people don’t throw up because of gains, but I did because of losses.

  • newbfxtrader

    @AMC Time to take a look at nzd/usd short senor. Looks kinda vertical. Should be good for a scalp at least.

  • Skynard

    Federal Budget Balance -190.5 BL. Holy Shit, no wonder Bucky is tanking! Why don’t they just print everyone a BL and call it good:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Maybe open ended QE has something to do with it! Nzd/usd short looking good fancy a try?

  • Joe_Jones
  • AMCabrera

    you are right it is but the past two shorts have not worked the one at 8100 was taken out at b/e, then another try at .8230 it was a no show and for a loss. Same with Aud/Usd which was the worse one I had for the week. FYI I still have my usd/cad long. It has been a lousy two weeks for me. 

  • AMCabrera

    I’ll try should be good. half lot short. 30 pip stop.

  • newbfxtrader

     Me thinks you are early on the Aussie. Kiwi already there. 1.06ish looks possible on the Aussie.

  • Pengo1

    Fearless & Volars prediction is going from probable to highly probable regarding the president cycle. DJIA 15000 by yearend.

  • AMCabrera

    I literally lol! Now? Now?

  • Joe_Jones

    It’s a classic now… 😉

  • BobbyLow

    I Bergamot.

    That’s was good advice.But please believe me when I say that I’ve done a lot of throwing up since 1998 when I first began to trade.  In 1999 and 2000 all you had to do was buy Tech and I did.  That was a high I’ll never forget.  Then 2001 came along and the Party was over and a lot of serious puking went on.   The years 2005, 2006 and 2007 and even 2008 were pretty good times for me.  Then I became a Full Fledged Bear and my Trading Life turned to Shit.  The years 2009 through 2011 were dry heave years.Here we are in 2012 and I’m neither a Bear nor a Bull and I don’t plan on doing anything stupid with  Futures or my newly Funded Forex Account.  My practicing was to get used to the Format so I don’t push any wrong buttons while live trading Futures and Forex.   Having said all that, there’s a time for throwing up and there’s a time for eating.  Now it’s time to Eat!    :) 

  • ridingwaves

    I’m going all in on metals…QE will never end…Ben just gave himself 4 more years on the job….I weep for my children and the rest of the children in the US as the fed is bent on sending them to a hellish place….I think fearless is shooting to low on silver…glad I was buying at 27-8 last month…

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Well /RBV2 (october delivery) closed lower than 4 days ago,
    keeping the down momentum according to DeMark Sequential
    So shorts that came in at yesterday’s high range are SFSG
    And the dip was below likely stops for trend trades on the Daily.
    Usually there is a pop after that; looks likely with that hammer low on high volume on the hourly

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Don’t care if the Bears beat the Bulls…. just kill the Packers!  (yeah hand-egg!)

  • I Bergamot

     He-He

  • ridingwaves

    no bears left..they can cling to the ^DJT as their only glimmer of hope…its over…

  • AMCabrera
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    In … Your…. Dreams!

  • Skynard

    LOL, below my price already:)

  • AMCabrera

    yea usd/jpy was stepped on like usual.

  • mothwhoflysbackwards

    Or your nightmares! ;-). Hope you can watch it in Spain.

  • newbfxtrader

    Mainly usd weakness. Its looking oversold.

  • convictscott

    Hey Bobby! Long time man

  • convictscott

    Bobby, trading with a practise account is like watching porn to prepare for having sex. Take some advice and trade for real money, but tiny tiny money. Make your risk per trade $10-$20 a trade. You get $10 worth of learning, and exposed to the actual emotions, which is the real meat of trading.

  • convictscott

    Ahoy captain Mole…iizzz back

  • newbfxtrader

    OMG hes baaack!!!!

  • captainboom

    At least we know what the Bernank has to do to get your attention.  Welcome back 😉

  • newbfxtrader

    Yep he heard Bernankes dropping cash from helicopters and showed up!

  • Fearless

    I did not know if QE3 was going to be announced, nor did I know what the Bernank was going to do. All I knew was, we had a commodities bear for nearly 16 months (slightly more than half of the preceding bull cycle), and it’s about time the commodities enter another bull cycle that should last well into 2014 (could even be 2015). Recall on July 12 my little discussion with Skynard about gold and silver, that they could be trades of our lifetime. I don’t have a good guess on gold, but it should rise beyond $2500/oz. Silver is the potential home run here, with $81 possible. Furthermore, unfortunately for us, oil never corrected much during this commodities bear, so we may see $200/barrel oil in a couple of year’s time.

    We should see the VIX hitting 10.xx later this year, but I think it will be in the 14/15 range when the all time high is formed (note that I said ‘when’). After that, it would be up to you as to what you want to short. The DJIA may lose 10k+ points, the SPX may lose 1k, and the Nasdaq could lose 2k over two years time. However, I think the home rum might be the Canadian TSX, which has a potential of losing 12k+ in as little as five months once the commodities bull run ends. The DJIA was the last of the three major indices to finally make a new recovery high, so it could actually rise the fastest (percentage wise) amongst them in the next few months. I do not think we see much correction before January 2013.

    This period of time is the manic phase I was referring to, where prices could rise to ridiculous levels before you know it. As with all bubbles, mania ends abruptly. AAPL may trade at $1000 at some point in the next 10 months, but you bet I’d be grabbing some cheap long term puts as soon as I see that. Same with silver, oil, and gold when they show extreme euphoria. Try not to short a bubble prematurely.

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Scott,

    I’m really glad to see you back.  

    I was gone for awhile myself.  Mole still has the best shop on the net and if you come back it’ll be even better. 

    I finally broke down and got the OK to trade Futures and Forex.  I’ll be trading real money in both at the next opportunity.   By shooting blanks with the EUR/USD and E-Mini’s, I got to do some back testing and built a framework that should keep me out of serious trouble.  I’ll also stick with these two for now as I’ve been following them for a couple of years but just never traded them before. 

    You are right about paper trading but I needed to get used to the format.  Winning 21 Points today and not have it count was kind of a ball buster.  I also know that today’s action was exceptional.  That thing ran straight up and when it got up to about +15,  I set a 4 Point Trailing Stop and let Price take me out.   If that was real money, I would do the same thing.  

    My emotion levels are pretty level now.  I work at trying to keep them like an old fashioned car battery gauge where the needle just flickers in the middle.  When the needle goes too far positive or too far negative bad things usually happen but when it hangs in the middle things run smoothly.   

    I hope you plan on hanging around awhile.  You helped a lot of people here including me and I’ll always appreciate it.  

    Time for me to call it a night. Hope to talk to again soon.  

  • Joe_Jones

    We got fireworks  zerofx  side. Hehehe

  • Joe_Jones

    We have a bit of resistance just above to overcome first

  • http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=12013 UPB

    QE to the moon!!!

    http://tinyurl.com/9emvzfc

  • convictscott

    Nice mate :) I always knew you had the temperament to make it 

    I took a break from trading to start a new business in the Philippines, but I still follow the markets every day. To my eye there are really only 2 outcomes from this point. The high probability is that we are at fresh highs, QE3 puts a floor under the market, and we slow motion march up with a consistent short squeeze. The low probability (and therefore big move) is for a massive bull trap, and epic breakout fail.Mole is right that short term we are butting up against resistance, and the smart play is to wait for a few days of pullback and jump on a buy signal

    As for forex, I havent got a clue right now, its time to start catching up on some charts

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    good call..
    When are you expecting all time high for DJIA, SPX?  How does that tie in with TSX..if commodities go up for 2 years, TSX will outperform?

  • amokta

    He’s baaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!
    The return of both Fearless & CS – who could forsee that!

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Cable chart..
    may be getting close for correction of rally..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You look familiar….

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Finally got bored of banging Philipinas ey? :-)

  • Ashish Agarwal

    Thanks Mole for the Spoos chart!

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mole, is that ES chart at the top for Sep or Dec expiry?

  • amokta

    Mania, Mania, where art thou Romania?

    So what are the hall marks of mania – how do we know (anyone old enough remember 1999/2000, the backdrop doesnt feel the same?)

  • Schwerepunkt

    No tulip bulbs in sight, but . . . 

  • amokta

    LoL! Anyway, the Great Silver Mania of 2011 should be a warning to all, that by all means play the musical chairs, but be sure to be seated when the musik stops

  • DarthTrader

    /ES I have 1466.67 as a 261.8% of last major ABC up before the explosion up.  Could be another one setting up but the volume does not confirm it

  • amokta

    Would we not get a push down rather than an explosion up, following an ABC up?

  • MrMargin

    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.de/2012/09/when-fed-sparks-rally-to-long-term-high.html

    High chance of follow-through from yesterday’s rally. Time to buy the dips, not call tops.

  • StrikeFirst

    Agreed.

    Still, it’s worth noting that there’s significant resistance here:

  • Joe_Jones

    Nice neg div on 60 min zero

  • Skynard

    Should know in 4 min.

  • ridingwaves

    why is vix up? must be contract roll over…

  • bdoone

    But watch VIX: VIX & SPX close positive on a Friday with MA>200d then lower following week 45/48 times (94%).
    http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/2012/04/why-fridays-vixspx-action-could-be.html 

  • DarthTrader

    Correct, odds favor a sell off

    I was referring to Yesterday’s explosion up

  • MrMargin

    Very good point. I’ve been looking at some more data. Short-term returns seem to be a neutral to bearish and seasonality will turn negative for the next two weeks. Maybe we’ll get a bit of consolidation and shakeout and a test of the breakout level at 1440 (SPX) before this rally really blows off. This seems to be the most likely scenario right now. Long-term studies at least do show a solid upside edge over the next 12 months, so Fearless may very well turn out to be right.

  • AmazingLarry

    GRPN breaking. $5 for $10 worth of stock. Hurry! :p

  • Schwerepunkt

    USD found a woody. Very interesting. Do we have a decoupling of correlations?

  • amokta

     Also zngya! Let partyu like its 1899 :-)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    /CT starting to move up
    $0.9 in 15 minute pop

  • amokta
  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    unfortunately..yes

  • DarthTrader

    New Moon this weekend . . .

    I’d say market is due for a little retrace

  • Skynard

    Doesn’t look too promising for a follow through today. With OPX next week I would say that the market moves down from here to screw the most participants. H&S on the 5 min should be good for /ES 1440.

  • bdoone

    I took a quick look at OI in SPY Sept. calls for OPEX. 144/145/146/147/148 strikes.  
    Total of calls: 730K
    Total of puts: 177K
    Like you said, what would screw the most participants?  And that doesn’t include screwing equity bears covering up here and late-to-the-party bulls. 

  • amokta

    Nice call (so far) by Mr Margin on zynga, but is it a sht sqz or a bll rn?

  • BobbyLow

    Hey Sky,

    FBOW, I’m no longer a Virgin on Forex as I shorted EUR/USD a little after 1PM.  

    I set OCO Bracket Stops and we’ll see how it goes.   :)

  • Skynard

    Sweet Bobby, you should be happy with that trade. Go red team for a change ha?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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