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Evil Speculator 3.0
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Evil Speculator 3.0

by The MoleJune 9, 2014

We interrupt your regularly scheduled programming to share with you some of the realizations I arrived at during my brief time off last week. First however let me again thank comrade Scott for carrying the torch for a few days – his contributions were to the point and spot on as usual. Now grab a cup of coffee or your favorite tea and sit back while I lay out our future path here at Evil Speculator, because once again there will be changes.

A little over four years ago, in late March of 2010, I actually took a few days off as well as I was getting frustrated with the blog and sensed a pressing need to introduce some changes in this site’s format, message, and general approach. On the surface there was nothing really wrong – as a matter of fact at that time Evil Speculator was receiving a ton of traffic and attention – even competing with that of the Slope. However it was also a time when we many of our readers and myself included were full of bearish prejudice – our game wasn’t even close to what we’re offering today. Like the Slope we were receiving hundreds of comments on each post and my AdSense numbers were hopping.

However, the Mole was not pleased. Because deep inside I knew that we all could do better – much better. It was time to step up our game. For the market had suddenly changed almost exactly a year prior and many of the folks coming here continued to pursue the same bearish illusions (a.k.a. Prechter’s P3) that had served them well up until March 2009. As I was scanning the comment section it seemed to me as if I had created some kind of social club for bears and there were few hints of the top notch trading blog I originally had envisioned. So I decided to pull the plug and step away for a few days. I was even considering to quit running the blog altogether but after some soul searching I decided to accept the challenge of building something bigger and better. In other words I set out to create Evil Speculator 2.0. A big part of that was to introduce a hybrid blog approach in which at least some of my efforts and time would be rewarded via subscription services. I however knew that keeping some of my work free for everyone was necessary in order to compensate for natural attrition and to keep the energy going. In my experience closed systems never survive for very long.

Secondly I vowed to henceforth dispense with any unnecessary noise and to completely limit the site’s mission to the sole pursuit of banking coin. Which meant to abide to a strict information diet and to start to approach the market as is and not as how we wanted it to be. In short we needed to grow up and shift from becoming talented amateurs to consistent trading professionals capable of surviving the increasing challenges thrust upon us in a new era of the financial markets. The Bernank had decided to give the banksters a free pass and we were effectively given two choices – adapt and prosper – or continue with business as usual and perish in the process. I think the choice was clear and four years later we are still here while many others have long vanished.

I also resumed posting discretionary trades again as part of ‘Evil Speculator Gold’ – a popular service that has continued up to this day and to which many of you have been subscribed for years now. Over time I also introduced several trading strategies, first starting out with Geronimo after which my collaboration with Scott led me to build more sophisticated systems like CrazyIvan and more recently Heisenberg. It was a major undertaking which took literally thousands of hours of hard work but in the process I wound up learning a lot about system development. But among some of the steeper hills to climb were developing low risk ideas, not falling prey to form fitting, definition and pursuit of an edge, capital commitment, risk control, and most importantly – self control.

I truly think we have come a long way since that day and it we surely had our ups and downs. When I look at Evil Speculator today I am very pleased with the progress but once again I think we could do much better. So let me highlight some of the areas where I believe I may have failed you or where I think we all could work together to achieve better results.

When I look at my Google Analytics numbers today it is clear that we are now commanding a fraction of the traffic we enjoyed back in 2010. Obviously some of the visitors didn’t enjoy the hybrid format and moved on to where they could find freebies all day. Now that is fine and I never expected to keep everyone around after changing the site’s format. I also have been actively discouraging idle chat and useless banter here on Evil Speculator, up the point where I was forced to ban a few of the more prolific offenders as I felt it was disrupting our productivity and progress. Suffice to say they I didn’t make friends this way but we’re not in this game to be popular – we’re here to survive and the game is tough enough without wasting your time sorting through useless chatter.

But there is more going on here than meets the eye. I often wonder why people come here and at some point choose to leave. I mean – if I am supposedly doing a good job and if this site offers value then they all ought to be coming back for more, right? So have I failed or are my setups not working? Well, I think my work (and my own bottom line) over the last few years speaks for itself but I don’t think the answer is that easy. Let’s take CrazyIvan for instance – it had a bumpy start last year but it has been producing nearly 50R since the beginning of this year. On the surface anyone in their right mind would want to trade a strategy that would produce over 50% (given 1% R sizes) in that short amount of time.

However, in reality CrazyIvan is a brutal grind and if you’re for instance dealing with a crappy broker who clips your profits via huge bid/ask spreads then a 50R+ strategy can quickly turn into a losing one. And that is only one of the trials and tribulations you will face when trading any automated system – sticking with it and taking each campaign like a robot is quite a challenge and it takes personal development to get to that point. So obviously there is a lot more to trading than just taking entries or market analysis. As Scott said the other day – that is the easy part. By the way this is not just limited to CrazyIvan – if you haven’t yet then I strongly encourage you to watch this video by Nick Rage which will will quickly reset some of the perceptions you may be clinging to.

So I think a big missing element here over the past few years has been that of personal development. People have been trying to copy and teach success several times in the past. Perhaps you have heard of Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhard who back in the 1980s created the turtle experiment. They took a defined set of system rules and hired a rag-tag team of people from all strokes of life to trade them. Many of them succeeded but some also failed – and over time most of them actually wound up shaking out. Why? Because they were unable to stick with the original turtle system rules, which by the way some are still trading today (see that Nick Rage video above).

So obviously there is a lot more to trading than meets the eye. For instance why am I personally turning into a nervous mess if I don’t hit the gym at least five times a week and on top of that teach my MA class to a bunch of kids in the park? Frankly speaking I don’t do it for them – I do it for myself as it is my personal mental reset. When I come back from rolling on the ground and getting roughed up (with bruises to show) I feel like a million bucks and am locked and loaded to actually do it in the market. Scott likes to dish it out as well but he also religiously pursues mental relaxation and meditation techniques – some of you actually find peace and balance in prayer and although I am not religious I know that it works for people with strong religious beliefs.

There is actually a long laundry list of topics that we as traders need to embrace to live up to the challenge we have picked for ourselves. Here are some examples: when to trade and when not to – what markets are easy and which ones are tough for which types of systems – how to deal with draw downs – how to avoid them – how to control yourself and your natural cognitive biases – how to be successful in life and to project those lessons to trading, etc. Heck, even how to get your fat ass into shape and to feel better for yourself – physical health is essential to sustain the onslaught of mental stress you will be facing, and I would like to see posts that provide tips on that end. Or how to combine your day job with your trading regime – e.g. what is necessary to for someone working 9-5 and driving in freeway traffic an hour back/forth to successfully trade systems like CrazyIvan or soon Heisenberg? I am certain that is a question many of you are facing right now, may this be related to our systems, someone else’s, or your very own.

Other topics I would like to see here revolve around picking a good broker, setting realistic personal financial goals, how b/a spreads will affect your systems profitability, how a large and increasing percentage of losses makes it more difficult for you to get back to where you started, etc. the list is long and we are only limited by our imagination. I even would like to see personal accounts of your experiences – how you have failed and perhaps how you managed to overcome various challenges. That one may actually become its own category here at Evil Speculator as we all can learn from each other and if nothing else it can aspire us to step up our own game.

Of course I cannot all do it by myself and quite frankly I will need a bit of help as my own days are already stretched to the max. So I reach out to some of you more senior folks – if you feel like contributing here then please shoot me an email to admin@ and let me know what types of topics you want to cover. We had guests posts here in the past and with a bit of coaching and a few general guidelines I think we can accommodate a variety of voices and kick this place to the next level.

Of course that doesn’t mean we should be exchanging cooking recipes or pictures of our pets – quite on the contrary – we need to remain focused but at the same time realize that trading is only 20% of technical analysis and 20% of money management – the other 60% is self development and that aspect has been largely missing here at Evil Speculator. For me this is my personal red pill moment – do I continue to keep doing what I have been doing over the past few years or do I implement the changes needed toward turning losing retail victims into lean mean trading machines? That after all has always been our core mission here and we will continue to push toward that ideal, although it is admittedly a daunting challenge. We won’t be able to get everyone on board but I certainly think we can do better than right now.

Of course our existing subscriber services will continue as usual, as a matter of fact we should leverage them to demonstrate how technical analysis and an established edge can turn us into consistent winners, despite all the hype. noise, and distractions you are facing on a daily basis. Perhaps I can even convince Scott to post here again on a regular basis – but frankly for that to happen he (and everyone else who volunteers) needs to see a real benefit for doing so. We cannot fall prey to distractions and we all need to work hard toward bettering ourselves. Changes are if you are reading this right now then what you are doing is not working for you – you may not know it or you may not be willing to admit it to yourself. Either way – we can fix it. But it is up to you to take the red pill and participate instead of passively expecting easy answers. Because that I guarantee you is the path to failure, no matter which system you try or which technical analysis you decide to follow (mine or someone else’s). You can’t expect for us to do all the heavy lifting – which means if you feel you have something to contribute then step up and do so.

Finally some of the more basic questions have been addressed here several times in the past and later today I will produce a ‘favorites’ page that links to some of our best posts of the past. It’s currently under the ‘evil’ page and I don’t think that’s an easy place so I’ll come up with something better – give me a few days.

That is all for now – please feel free to use the comment section to make your own suggestions or to propose new ideas. I’m looking forward to making this place even better :-)

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • DarthTrader

    Great I’ll be tossing out some interesting health Information in the near future. So much to learn in that area and of benefit to everyone. I’m on a path to trim about 20 or more years off my current Biological age.

  • DarthTrader

    I’ve been saying this for years:”If I’m ever diagnosed with Cancer, the first thing I’ll do is fast for week.”

    I guess I was right. http://news.usc.edu/63669/fasting-triggers-stem-cell-regeneration-of-damaged-old-immune-system/

  • Ronebadger

    Right! Don’t feed the cancer (or the ducks at the park)

  • DarthTrader

    A Full Reboot on your Immune System is pretty sweet deal!

  • DarthTrader

    /ES has a confirmed ABC targeting 1963.75 and /TF has a confirmed ABC targeting 1162.50 . . . these could continue to push on to those targets but so often you get a retrace in the meantime. If we get a retrace I’ll be adding for the final push up.

  • BobbyLow

    Great Stuff Mole. I began participating at ES a little before March of 2010 so I’m familiar with the changes you wrote about this morning. There have been a lot of people who have come and who have gone for whatever reasons. I’ve also left the blog and come back two or three times myself.

    From a personal perspective, Bad Trading is a like disease that tries to talk to me every single day. All the charts in the world can’t fight this alone. New traits have to be learned and then maintained each and every day because my “bad trading disease” is always lurking and can attack at any moment.

    For those who think jokingly, that this game isn’t “rocket science”, I’ll answer by saying no it isn’t like “rocket science”. It’s harder. :)

  • aiki

    Hey Mole: I’ll have whatever pill you’re having.

    One of the things I truly like about ES is your ability to promote a deep introspection into the Art of Trading. Why do I call it that? Because it is more more like martial arts than not, I think. Anyone can learn to punch, but only the masters have all the pieces of the mental and emotional game together. This is what is so special about your site. And it comes from the top down. If your traffic is down, it’s because people want sensation and what you offer is work, albeit work among a community of like minded workers.

    Let me tell you what your site has done for me (and what I’ve done for me)…

    Mole, you know my story (a story probably like some others possibly). I had a large account. Worked for years to build it, then in the beginning of 2013, I started using a discretionary system that was netting me four and close to five figures every trading day for almost an entire month. (Talk about clustering!) At which point, I gave it all back. And more. Much more. I totally decimated it, mostly as a result of averaging losing trades, being greedy, just HAVING to get it back, and fear of missing out. You know, all the regular stuff…(ha!)…ummm, not good.

    So that sucked. I went to trading barely at all, trying to revisit what had transpired, knowing it was all me and my fault, and not the markets’ etc.

    Around that time, I started hanging out here more. I don’t post much, but I am always watching, and know that yes, over time, I will rebuild the freaking account I treated so badly. Okay, so what? Well maybe you have taught me a thing or two as a result of repeated exposure:

    Last week I had a modest Long into the ECB event, and it was quite nicely profitable. But I just couldn’t quantify the odds of an outcome that was likely to generate some volatility in either direction. The TA was a long, but I couldn’t wrap my head around it, so I just closed it out for a nice little profit EOD before the next day’s ECB meeting. And of course it went higher, much higher, as we all know. But here’s what’s great: I didn’t miss it. I didn’t feel like I had missed out. I didn’t chase it (although I pulled some small longs after the announcement).

    Previous years, I would have held it all into an announcement I couldn’t quantify. Post Evil Speculator, it was fine to just let it go and resume trading after the event had transpired.

    So my first question to you all out there is: How do you handle missing out, and specifically the fear of future regret?

    I meditate (not enough)
    Realize (more now) that I can control nothing but my exposure to risk
    Put big gains out of my mind, and shoot for singles
    Be obsessive about losses.

    In particular I ask myself if I am anywhere but here. Meaning I constantly question if my head is in the future (profits) or the past (losses, pain). If you are anywhere but here, in the now, the now is possibly going to look like something it isn’t. Your mileage may vary…

    EV is a gem of a site – the discourse is excellent. I applaud your continued desire to make it (and us) better! What is it they say?

    “Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.” Edison.

    A new day dawns for the rats! So as long as you’re at it, why not pass me TWO of those pills you’re having?

  • ridingwaves

    Dow 17K gravity directional movement or GDM looks to be in play…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pretty cool stuff but I don’t think you can just fasten when you get cancer – it has to be done ahead of time to kill developing ones right?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Cool – the info I would want to see is related to personal fitness and how to alleviate stress through exercise and healthy living.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “If your traffic is down, it’s because people want sensation and what you offer is work”

    Wow, that is one of the most insightful and thought provoking comments I’ve seen here recently.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    “How do you handle missing out, and specifically the fear of future regret?”

    Simple – know where to get out ahead of time. Only if you have clearly defined rules that also specify *campaign management activities* then there’s nothing to miss out on. For instance HB takes profits at ~1.2R and then switches the ISL to a trailing one – which then also gets updated later as things push in our favor. And we didn’t pull that out of our asses – it is the result of months of measuring MAE and MFE in context of the R sizes we were taking. Based on that we settled on set of rules that over the long term is aimed at maximizing results. You cannot just take a trade and make it up as you go as your instincts will always work against you. So yeah sorry – more work for you to do 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ” All the charts in the world can’t fight this alone.”

    Exactly – charts are just mental models – lenses attempting to explain reality if you will. That’s the easy part – the more complex task is to use those charts somehow to bank a profit. I think that aspect of trading remains largely unaddressed by financial bloggers. We really should do something about that. Care to volunteer? ;0)

  • ridingwaves

    read some interesting stuff on cancer having to do with alkalinity vs Acid…think alkalinity as killing the acidious cancer cells..

  • mugabe

    That is exactly right imo. Campaign management rules need to be mechanical. In my opinion, it doesn’t matter a lot what they are (that’s probably heresy around here). You just need to have them AND you need to be able to live with them psychologically. For me at least, having no campaign management rules is a recipe for angst and complete subjectivity.

  • mugabe

    imo, the mangement of a profitable position is one of the absolutely key areas in trading. the management of a losing one is very easy. stop hit and good bye. if you don’t find that easy, then you have to develop a mindset that makes it easy. I don’t have any advice how to do that as I’ve never had a problem in that area.

  • mugabe

    I think a lot depends on your ability to handle unpredictability and randomness / random noise. Most humans don’t find that easy. Also the ability to think in terms of / live with probabilities. Again something that doesn’t come easily to most people

  • BobbyLow

    OK, but I’m still a work in progress. And I’ll always have to be diligent toward not alowing “Stinking Thinking” to get in my way. This is by far the most difficult thing for me to do. So one thing I’ve added to my daily routine is to read the following list out loud every morning before I load my trading platform.

    Some of this is borrowed from Scott, some of this is borrowed from you and some of this is mine.

    1. Okay to Trade?

    2. Mental rehearsal to help prevent mistakes. Step 1. (Trading) – I am a bad junkie losing trader, and I am completely powerless over the markets, and I have the capability of doing severe damage to my account because I can become completely unmanageable. Step 2. (Serenity) God grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom to know the difference.

    3. Focus to trade mistake free.

    4. I have developed a Low Risk Manageable Plan. It will work if I allow it to work! Do not let my first drawdown discourage me!

    5. I have back tested and traded real money from multiple charts triggering from 15 Minutes to 3 Hours until I am ready to Puke. Thirty Minute Charts is my Final Choice. Do not change this again.

    6. Most of my action does not require a lot of thought so don’t complicate it.

    7. Check for Major Announcements each morning. Take Fed Announcement Days Off.

    8. Use my 2% pre-calculated risk sheet that already has the amount of Units to use for each trade based on the amount of Stop Loss in Pips (One less calculation to do).

    9. New trades will begin with an Initial Stop of 2XATR +3 to 5 Pips

    10. For earlier trades that are still viable and have begun a directional move prior to my entry, I will set my ATR Stop back to an earlier ATR to allow for a deeper retracement.

    11. By 9:30 PM, for any open trade that is in profit, I will put in an appropriate Trailing Stop. However if by 9:30 PM, an open trade is not in profit but is still viable, I will leave my initial stop in place.

    12. Remember, this is a marathon not a sprint.

    13. I will continue to work on my fear of failure and any psychological detriments to my success. Fighting “Stinking Thinking” is an ongoing process.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    “Creative visualisation” is a process that I have been using for decades and one employed by many … it is also a concept that I expose my students to … and encourage all to adopt.

    Sadly, creative visualisation aka ‘imagination’ is frowned upon in our formative years.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Very easy – the mantra here is to cut your losers short and let your winners run. The psychology behind letting your losers continue is the hope that they will somehow turn into a winner. There rarely is any technical reason that supports this assumption. The best decision is to accept losses as the cost of admission, period.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Agreed – but it can be taught – which is what we attempt to do here.

  • mugabe

    I think you and scott do a fantastic job. I’ve learnt a lot

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ivan – what is your skype id again?

  • Ronebadger

    You want a diet that will make you system alkaline. Most foods are acidifying. Women especially want an alkaline diet for their bones. Believe it or not, lemon juice has an alkaline effect on the body, even though it’s pH is below 7.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’m familiar with all that – also saw some reports on overdosing with vitamin C, virus shots, etc. Fact is that we have not conquered cancer and although research continues to show promise we yet need to find a repeatable procedure that works. It’s just like in trading – people connect dots and find various approaches but a repeatable recipe may not exist – it’s a continuous battle that requires iterative approaches and an adaptive response system.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is correct – lemon juice is alkaline. I eat those fuckers – my new Spanish abuelita (who adopted us) brings us bags of freshly picked ones from her farm :-)

  • mugabe

    I visualize all my positions going to the moon, bit it doesn’t seem to work.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Ho Ho Hum … visualise yourself following your own RBT / process efficiently and fully … visual that the outcome of one campaign has no power over you … etc.

  • Edd

    Hi Bobby, just printed out your list and read #5 to my wife. I have a note on my screens, “Enough, Do Not Change Time Frames Again” Her comment was, Oh well your not the only crazy one! Thanks much for sharing your list, the essence reads like my own.

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Edd, I hope it works for you. :)

  • mugabe

    evidentemente, no sabe que eres un especulador malvado.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Send me a skype when you are around.

  • aiki

    You are NOT the only crazy one. We are ALL the crazy ones…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Pretty slow here – nobody else stepping up?

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Xle had a blowoff and sox has a nice daily red so I grabbed a small short. Bpspx is positive but bpener is negative. We shall see..

  • aiki

    Speaking of SOX, I keep most of the spydr ETFs (plus a couple extra) in a little corner of my platform running on a percent change chart. If sox (smh) and financials (xlf) are showing outperformance that is usually a good confirmation of bull tone or vice vera. Go back and look at the days leading up to and thru ECB for decent examples… FWIW

  • bdoone

    Only thing remotely interesting today is UNCH’ed day while VIX +6.25% (Step 2 sell sig. in progress)

  • Cravenmorehead

    I’ll throw my nickle in here. The reason you are losing subscribers is you are always changing your trading styles. one year it is waves….next year it is fib lines….next is NLBL…..next is CI entries and campaigns. There is absolutely NO documentation of trades and campaigns….and your only offerings are e-mail alerts which are IMPOSSIBLE for any working person to trade. And then there is the constant top and bottom picking by posters which just muddies the waters. Offer Crazy Ivan in an automated format on Striker or something where WE can see the real life results. Then you will have subscribers galore with a proven track record.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Actually subscriber numbers have been pretty stable – it’s the freebies that are moving on. Crazyivan is being tracked trade by trade – have you looked at the logs? Finally I recently added Jabber alerts on top of emails. I may consider Striker or C2 in the future but in the near future I’ll stick with the current alert system.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    BTW, I haven’t done wave wanking for over four years now. And my trading style has been pretty consistent for the past few years. And of course trading styles change – that’s called adapting to the market.

  • Cravenmorehead

    Then you will not get most people to join. Nobody wants to spend their lives glued to a phone or monitor. Either sell the code in a secured fashion….or get it on an autotrade site. JMHO

  • Billabong

    IPs currently on /GC, /SI and /HG

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Understood – maybe in the next iteration. I have been working my butt off on the current versions and want to see them in action for a few months first. Perhaps once we see HB running perfectly for a few months I’ll make it available.

  • SirDagonet

    “Perhaps once we see HB running perfectly for a few months I’ll make it available.”

    +100

  • strider

    I had a colon cancer tumor removed this past december. I had no signs of it but it was found thru a routine scope. Due to the surgery, I didn’t eat for 4 days. My stomach growled the entire time and I lost 12 lbs—4 lbs during the clean out period of 4 hours. I am lucky 1) it had spread nowhere else 2) no chemo or radiation 3) 13% chance of having cancer in the next 5 years. I found out real quick what mattered the most to me. Colon cancer only happens in countries with processed foods so it would be for our own good to choose carefully with what we put inside ourselves

  • Cravenmorehead

    Nice

  • mugabe

    autotrade would be good. i might be tempted .worth canvassing

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    An alternative may be to produce an obfuscated binary that runs locally on your system. I have been hesitant about that but if done right it may be the best solution. I’m just worried about the customer support end – it may be more than I can handle.

  • Cravenmorehead

    I know it’s just learning what works….BUT….it implies an unsure approach.

  • Cravenmorehead

    That would be good too….the only advantage to somebody like Striker or whatever is you have it running on a stable server….most people don’t have that luxury. Net outages can cost a pile of money.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    As per your request Mole … my very un-original handle on SkyPe … ProfitFromPatterns

  • Sean

    If you want to get wonky on cancer metabolism here is a great post… http://eatingacademy.com/nutrition/way-exploit-metabolic-quirk-cancer

    Also, the blog overall is great if you’re the type that likes to dig into the actual science of human biochemistry and use it to better understand yourself and your fitness… It amazes me how much health and diet advice from real MD’s is actually rooted in terrible science… Actually, that’s not too dissimilar from the finance industry.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scott always said that I actually did some of the best wave wanking he had come across – I for sure was beating Hochberg at his game, damn it. But I realized that I was pursuing a false path and had to cut the cord. Look mate – the inability to accept change and adjust one’s game is why many of the Slopers have been boiled like frogs over the past few years. And I think we have done better over here – at minimum we are working hard to challenge ourselves and step up our game. Stagnation equals death.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That is true although folks have shared negative stories about C2 and Striker – apparently some are trading tiny accounts there and somehow game the system by not taking losses. Not sure if that’s really happening but in general I have seen mixed reviews on both sites. What I like about it is that I don’t have to worry about someone stealing my binary – there are ways to obfuscate it but as they saying goes, where there is a will there is a way.

  • Scott Phillips

    On the contrary. Mole is constantly losing subscribers because retail traders constantly blow up. In his position it makes the most logical sense to shut the blog down and concentrate on his own trading. It’s what I would do and what I have advised him to do numerous times.

    If anyone wants to trade CI fully auto that is entirely possible, however you would have to pay for Mole’s or my time, and that is not cheap. I would suggest $1000/month to cover customer service plus 2/20 (the standard arrangement) would be a place to start. If anyone has a real account size they want to explore that arrangement feel free to contact me. You guys seem to think $99 / month buys you the farm – it doesn’t!

    Personally having traded CI both manual AND auto in the long term, I feel that hardly anyone is going to be emotionally suited to it. Building systems for other people is not a viable business model, systems need to be individually tailored.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    The other problem I may run into with C2 or their competitors is that of position sizing. It seems like that you actually pick your own position size whereas both CI and HB always calculate 1R as 1% of your account size. Unless I can make that work for a C2 system it won’t work.

  • Scott Phillips

    I started coming to your blog for your wave wanking which was the best around.

    Your wave wanking was extraordinary, and it took quite some courage to admit that it was a dead end with great descriptive but limited predictive value.

  • Scott Phillips

    Don’t bother mate its a waste of time

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks mate – appreciate that coming from you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    So guys – should I listen to Scott? 😉

  • Wyo_Redneck

    It would be a huge disappointment for me

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, he has been in my ear about it for at least a year – so far I haven’t been listening. Fact is that I really love doing it – especially when I see activity in the comment section. If folks stop coming one day then of course it may be time to pull the curtain.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezes mate – that’s horrible. I’m so glad you pushed through that and that they found it early. i would hate to lose another subscriber! JUST KIDDING!

    Seriously though – stay away from processed food, it’s a slow killer. We only eat organic food here at the lair and have been for a decade. Nevertheless I am still freaked out about the prospect of cancer – I think I rather get hit by a bus than go through that ordeal.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    It is a sad indictment that more people make a living from cancer than actually die from it.

    Max Gerson (the late) produced some great results with his approach to treating cancer /s … naturally he was discredited by many … well worth a look imo.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Eating organic foods is only part of the equation … given the global issue of chemtrails, Fukushima and general pollution, including wi-fi and cell towers … geographic location can also play a major role in healthy longevity.

  • strider

    The chemo offered was pill form and the generic was $1050/wk. I never could find out from my insurance what my cost would have been. My feeling (sadly) about the whole process was it’s a racket. Thanks for the info–I’ll take a look.

  • strider

    It was the most sad I’ve ever been. I am very happy with my life and I never could wrap my brain around disappearing off the face of the earth. But the worst was the day it was found. After that, each step has been the best news I could have hoped for. I just want everyone to know that what you do to your body affects it….and quit worrying about shit that doesn’t even matter

  • Scott Phillips

    I agree completely with this. Losing trading thinking is something I can recognize at a long way away now. So is winning trading thinking.

    Most people refuse to take the time to mindfuck themselves into a winning state before they start trading.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    It may be more instructive to turn up the microscope to establish whether the IP’s are IPu or IPd … the messages can be very different … in turn this can help obviate whips.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    One of the reasons why I provide students with a toolkit of setups, ideas and concepts … as opposed to a packaged RBT … is based on ego.

    To believe that one will / can succeed in a field dominated by other than mass successes requires a certain amount belief in oneself … belief in one’s own abilities can also be argued to be ego.

    Generally people with a strong sense of self / ego are not followers … and hence unlikely to be able to follow someone else’s RBT … either from an emotional or a financial perspective.

    By putting in the effort required to create a RBT to suit their own personal needs, goals and psychological makeup … and thus being intimately aware of the characteristics of said RBT … adhering to the self-established rules is less challenging.

    I also urge my students to formally create, date and sign a personal commitment to following their own RBT … and then to set up some form of repercussion / consequence for falling off the wagon … so to speak.

  • piotrek_o

    This Blog blows mind. Seems like the only place on the web that is focused on all the aspects of trading. Not just fucking charts….I have been around here for a month and I have learnt 100x more than following slope for over a year.

    Thanks!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I fucking despise Monsanto but we won’t be able to stop them.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Monsanto is merely a shell … the players behind and within actually deserve your emotion / attention … all is possible in my world … it is just that the seemingly impossible takes a bit longer!

  • captainboom

    I appreciate that you keep doing it. It’s hard to find a mentor, let alone one you can trust, your blog is the next best thing. I’ve learned a ton here, and have a long way to go. I have one friend who does some stock trading, and when he finishes with some military training and returns to the area, I’ll prod him a bit more to spend some time here. I have sent some of the most relevant posts to him, like the Nick Radge video.

    I’ll make an effort to send two of my kids here, though I doubt that either of them would comment much.

  • Scott Phillips

    I run autotraded systems as that I developed with Mole as well as manual systems. From my experience, having done both, that there is just as much work in running, monitoring, and maintaining automated systems as simply doing it yourself.

    Also problems arise when you want to make incremental improvements to your system, which involve programming and beta testing.

    In my opinion unless you have a very very deep conceptual understanding of a system you will stop trading at the first drawdown.

  • wandering196

    A recap of my last week:

    Mole needs a few days rest, Scott steps in, excitement by those of us who like Scott’s method of throwing ice water on us.

    Listen to the market as Ivan advises us (up, up, up), scott says easiest week to trade, mole shows up even though he is trying to realign his digestion.

    I remind myself that I have only done some of the work that Scott outlined in March ( at that time I printed out the posts from http://evilspeculator.com/?p=40760 the market owes you nothing and Scott’s posts for the week.)

    So I spent all weekend working through my workbook so to speak. But in between I attended to my garden, my family, my house, etc, etc, etc, all those obligations we all have. I am the Queen of distractions but still manage to accomplish much in a day.

    Check the blog on the weekend, see pictures of almost naked women posted. Hmmm

    Wake up this morning, read Mole’s post before I rush off to my regular job and then think I will post something later. Read between the lines, haven’t traded for a few days.

    Read Scotts words about advising Mole to shut down the blog. But Mole says he enjoys the blog. I don’t know want EvilSpeculator to go away. I am not the trader Scott reminds us we need to be to be successful, but I am a work in progress and will be in many aspects until the day I die. Usually I am very hard on myself but for some reason today’s blog has made me realize a few good things about myself. Maybe I do have something to offer in that department. I have had 2 back surgeries in the past 10 years, after suffering through excruciating pain that went on for months and months all the while raising 2 children, remaining married, and continuing working. I am a participant in this blog because I want to get better at trading – plain and simple.
    PS I like some humour and I have a ton of great recipies, but don’t worry I won’t post them.

  • phylum

    Bush food recipes wouldn’t be bad …. survival beyond the inevitable cataclysm :)

  • phylum

    DIP
    Edit: Daily

  • wandering196

    I know what the biological/botanical meaning of phylum but is that what your name implies?

  • phylum

    ….of the molluscan clan perhaps:)

  • DollarChaser

    mole no! please don’t shut this place down. i once had a nightmare that you shut this place down, it was awful.

    i often wonder (and worry) how you manage to keep up this blog and trade at the same time. im about 10% as busy as you by the sounds of things and even that exhausts me. im constantly in awe of how you manage to do this ES thing day after day, week after week, and i am eternally grateful for what you do.

    i often feel guilty that i don’t contribute enough here, i pay my $30 a month but i know thats nothing for what i get in return. i love this place and i plan to come here and be part of this community for the rest of my life.
    Im so so serious about becoming a successful career trader. i will never give up. im only 26, and with your daily coaching i know i can do it.
    EvilSpeculator is the most valuable and most exciting thing i have in my life. please keep it up! thank you so much!

  • Scott Phillips

    From what I know C2 is a non starter for CI – it essentially mirrors your trades from the broker. It doesn’t put in stops etc.

    Even a few seconds lag is a deal breaker on a stop

  • phylum

    Methinks…….a boiler plate would be helpful for those intent on designing their own RBT. What should one address, where do I start, whom should I consult????

  • RUFCrazy

    I like the autotrade idea, hoping you can execute it. I would bet you could acquire coding resources pretty inexpensively provided the specs were very clear. I’d be a buyer, am pretty sure it would be negatively correlated with my other models. Please don’t kill the site Mole, been a daily vistor for 4 years+ and have learned a ton. I will never blow up my acct again that’s for sure.

  • Star.p Choi

    Good to hear you are ready for making better Evil Speculator.
    I’ve joined your company to find more information on S&P 500, though I’m not from the U.S.
    What I want to get from this site is when to get in and when to get out.
    I hope you can provide more detailed information on the point.

  • Billabong

    What if the trade is going sideways with a single IP/OP or multiples? I fully understanding what your asking for … time for graduate level work.

  • phylum

    This is the number one site for retail traders. This is where you get you head around trading. Mr Mole (et al) are working on systems and your mindset. Professional traders visit here and contribute regularly. You will not receive auto anything however you will receive snippets to develop your own successful system.

  • Billabong

    Mole, it’s like EvilSpec was a reflection of the market last week. We went into frenzy mode on Thursday and spent the next few days recovering (or at least I did). Your audience is as diverse as the types of trading they do. You’ve got everything here from equities to commodities and time frames from the 1 min to monthly charts. You can’t be everything to everyone. Especially for the folks that want to push a buy button and then a sell button and take profit because you told them to. I’ve been trying to turn iron ore into gold for decades … it’s just a matter of time. If there was a fool proof trading system, I suspect you wouldn’t have this site and you and Mrs. Evil would be travelling the world on your private jet. I’ve learned a lot more from the training here than any course/book. Nick Radge sums it up as quantitative vs qualitative. I bet most people arrive here with the book knowledge but not the qualitative edge, the psychology needed to jump the first hurdle of many. As mentioned to Ivan, this is the graduate program…

  • mugabe

    Re the point about the user of the service (not the point about the provider of the service, which is tricky):
    Spelling out in detail what sort of drawdown you can expect in terms of R would be helpful psychologically. It would also help each user to set their R parameters.
    You might want to ‘force’ subscribers to sign up for a year. That would, financially, stop the risk of people bailing at the first drawdown.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    ‘Trade going sideways’ is a very different kettle of fish to taking on board new risk … hence different approaches are warranted.

    The trap you (and most) fell into was attempting to multi-task … ‘single IP/OP or multiples’ … the most complex things are really simple when broken down into the smallest component pieces.

    Grad work: Take 500 bars (of your timeframe and market choice … to show that this is not staged) and mark the instances where you have 2 x OP’s side by side … then look at the resolution … the way to do this is to print 10 charts with just 50 bars on each page … take the sheets and a pencil and go sit under a tree … mark the events … ponder and draw working hypotheses … scan and post them here or send them across to me.

    Guided self-discovery is one of the most powerful ways of learning … teaching in a Socratic style is the most powerful way of impart knowledge / experience.

    Over to all!

  • Billabong

    I’ll take that challenge on. I like the idea of taking this to a new level. I use the daily chart, so I will use two years worth of data, It will take a few days…

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    It will take as long as it takes … I do urge the 500 bar format idea be followed … the actual reason may become self-evident along the way.

    I suggest placing a dot above each OPu and below for each OPd … to focus your subC on OP’s … then circle the instances where the OP’s are side by side … also mark when you have 3 OP’s within 5 bars.

    Regarding IP’s … a dot below an IPu and a dot above an IPd … accuracy versus haste is the name of the game.

    By doing this process manually you are possessing it … as opposed to coding the same events with software … the computer between our ears still has not been replicated nor surpassed!

  • Billabong

    ok.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

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  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thank you sir! :-)