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Eyes On Gold
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Eyes On Gold

by The MoleApril 25, 2016

Happy Monday everyone. I’ve got my eyes on gold this morning which touched hourly support on Friday and has been pushing sideways since the Sunday open. The daily panel is looking extremely tantalizing as gold futures have been painting a sideways pennant with a diagonal support line which is currently backed up by a stack of daily Net-Line Buy Levels.

2016-04-25_GC

By no means a guarantee for success but it’s as good as it gets in terms of high probability setups on the precious metal side in particular. FYI – this is Friday’s chart but prices haven’t moved that far from when I took the snapshot.

2016-04-25_silver

Speaking of precious metals – I also had my eyes on silver which is just about to roll over. The daily and weekly charts looks extremely tantalizing and with a bit of dark magic we may get a little drop lower after Tuesday. Yes, this may affect gold as well and if I get stopped out there then I probably wait for a 100-week SMA touch on silver and then split a long position (i.e. 1R) between these two.

By the way ‘ridingwaves’ just reminded us that gold and silver opex is on Tuesday. So one way or the other I expect some price volatility here soon. If I don’t see progress on my gold campaign I may have to pull it or at minimum reduce position size and widen my stop a little (i.e. expecting bigger moves and an overshoot of my current stop).

2016-04-25_EURAUD

The 100-hour Bollinger on the EUR/AUD is getting pinched and the hourly may just attempt to paint some intermediate lows here. I’m throwing 1/3R into a long position here with a stop below the lower BB. But I managed to dig up an even juicier EUR pair this morning. Please join me in the lair:

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    @ridingwaves – thanks for the reminder on the option expiration. I wonder if an IV crush play may be worth a shot. I’ll talk to the Executioner…

  • ridingwaves

    Specs are long SI according to below…wonder if we get little shakeout as you mentioned above….I like the setup but would like to sit on my hands thru wednesday….I be jelling until ms. yellen…the dollar could force me off hands on breakdown below 94 on $index
    https://twitter.com/SoberLook/status/723649783999676417

  • Time Bandit

    I have a question for Mole or for anyone who can answer. Last night Corn Futures Rolled from K6 to N6. I’ve been trying to find out some kind of map when these things roll and couldn’t find it on the CME etc. For example, I know that /CL rolls somewhere around the 16th to the 19th every month. What about the softs like Corn, Soybeans etc.?

  • Yoda

    Not taking any position in Gold until we come out of that wedge. Also waiting to see the dollar next move.

    Action seems to be elsewhere though at the moment. My speculative NDX short is working out well and given the zero signal I am considering adding some more short positions.

  • Yoda

    added to SQQQ position just now with buy at 18.65

  • Yoda

    If the trend day alert is confirmed, things will get uglier soon as presently we have a potential “island cluster reversal” formation on NDX

  • ridingwaves

    $ down-equities down-divergence
    $ strengthens here, it could be bloody..good luck…
    2060 first target?

  • Yoda

    I won’t try to correlate $ with equities. There are too many variables at play right now making the identification of a correlation pattern too difficult.

  • Time Bandit

    Picked up 20 Points in Soybeans this AM. Nice way to begin the week. 🙂

  • ridingwaves
  • Yoda

    Second attempt at VWAP appears to fail. Given how negative zero is, resumption of selling should start any time now. I’m on the bus (for the day at least).
    http://birdybear.nl/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Bear-on-Bus.jpg

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks for trying RW but this link is still confusing as hell unless I’m not looking at the right thing.

  • Yoda

    Damn! That ramp was rather unusual. Just came out of the blue with no positive div on the zero at the low.

  • Time Bandit

    Another thing is not to be confused (which I am) with ‘major expiration’ dates like with Corn that is May, July, Sept and Dec. Then you have like what occurred last night which was a rollover of “K6 May” to “N6 July”.

    As I write this perhaps I’m actually answering my own question. But it still doesn’t answer how many days before I’m trading September’s Contract? I’m trying to get a better understanding of how many days before one contract automatically rolls to the next one.

  • Time Bandit

    Numb I got. Surprises me nothing anymore in market.

    And I do mean nothing. 🙂

  • mugabe

    best to ask your broker if they’re doing it automatically. from what i’ve read, there is no offical rollover date for commodities but it is a few days before first notice date:

    http://www.barchart.com/futures/expirations.php?view=fnd

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks Mugabe. I had just found this website from Bar Charts and it is the clearest one so far. But I think I’ll call my brokerage to see if I can get better clarification on this.

  • Yoda

    Zero is the only indicator I trust. I can’t recall the last time it gave me a false signal, with a strong reading like we have today

  • Time Bandit

    Ahhah!!!!!!!

    I called the Futures part of TOS and found the answer and that is Grain Contracts remain active for”around two months”. There is no set amount of days. The July Contract “N6” is expected to be in place for 65 Days. But other grains could be a few days less or more. The guy I spoke with agreed with me that the CME Website is about as vague as it can be. But it looks like I have my answer and it means that I’ll have one more thing that I’ll have to be aware of.

  • Time Bandit

    It’s good to have something that you can rely on. I assume that Zero is combination of price and velocity of price with price being the operative word. Price is what it is.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s some weird ass tape today…

    .

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    The roll overs are all over the place and some trading platforms have indicators that tell you when. I have my own on NinjaTrader for example as I can’t remember them many times either. There are a few which roll over each month – crude for example. But with crude you really need to roll about one week before the actual roll over as there is always a ton of monkey business in the front month contract in the last week. Has to do with pricing deltas between the futures and actually taking possession on site for WTI. There’s also Brent but that’s a completely different contract and I don’t trade it.

    Wheat for instance is a great contract on paper if you look at a chart but it can be tough to get a decent bid before things take off. Your losers however are almost guaranteed to get filled 😉

    It’s best that you start paper trading those types of contracts for a few months until you develop a better feel for the flow and possible traps that are often being set.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    NinjaTrader has all the contract specs and you can just look them up if you need to. It’s what my own indicator is based on, which makes it easier for me to anticipate the roll overs.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now stabbing into JDST positioning.

  • Time Bandit

    Thanks Mole. I was amazed to find these rollover dates are all over the place. I’ve never been one to paper trade because I found that having a little real money at risk helps me to learn a lot quicker and a lot better. So even though I realize that I’m going to get whacked on fills from time to time, I’m doing the next best thing and that is trading the Mini’s on Corn and Soybeans. The volume sucks on these things but I’ve managed to do fairly well managing my entry orders and stops. The best thing about trading the mini’s like /XC and /XK is that the Tick Value is so low that even a “Po Boy” like me can trade them. I also run two sets of charts that include /ZC and /ZS to go along with the X’s.

    So even though I hit Soybeans for a 20 Point Gain this morning trading /XK, the reward was nowhere the same as it would have been trading /ZS. OTOH, neither was the initial risk. So for me it’s like I’m riding futures on training wheels but I have to learn how to ride before I ride fast. 🙂

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Watching this. Long SPY/ IWM/ AAPL/ FEYE. If we don’t start moving up tomorrow/ Weds this set up has failed.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks for the post on gold. Looks really juicy!

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Extremely low volume on SPY might not even get to 75MM shares traded

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Appreciated 🙂

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Although one probably can’t go wrong with an entry, im looking for a test of the lower BB. Looking for a multi wk hold period.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Does anyone here take those setups or is this a part of the service you guys think is useless? It takes me a lot of time putting those together and I am getting the impression that 98% of the readers (and subs) ignore them.

    Constructive input would be appreciated.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…Have been buying JDST today.

  • Mark Shinnick

    VERY important inflection data !!! Many of these have correlated to my own setups. The positions are not always correlated, but the timing often is….that is I what find is the most important to me in order to preserve mental capital.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mark – did you see my email? I was wondering what’s going on there. Please respond at your earliest convenience. Thanks in advance.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Uuuh, not sure what you mean.

  • Yoda

    No please keep posting them. I am not interested in everything, but the PM set-ups you posted today are right in my alley of interest.

  • ZigZag

    i am here primarily for those setups, even if I don’t take the currency ones. I consider it all part of my education process. Personally, I am not as interested in the basic option information.

  • Yoda

    I do not know what the maker put in it. I just know it works.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, will do.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Okay, there’s ONE 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Understood – I realize that stuff won’t be for everyone. And if it catches on audience it will be a separate sub eventually. I just want to me sure that those forex/futures setups are actually of value to anyone.

  • Skidmarkalot

    I agree with Yoda, love the Gold post.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I keep them short and to the point. But a ton of work goes into them. Sometimes it takes me hours just to find two or three setups.

  • ridingwaves

    I use some of them, no fx trading for me so I don’t take them

  • BKXtoZERO

    +1 like the gold posts

  • BKXtoZERO

    at first I though it said “infection”. guessing volatility alert.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I like them and I am planning on jumping on the futures train shortly. Forex, not yet, but that is also on the menu

  • Yoda

    yup that was one f.up tape today.

  • Time Bandit

    I’ve been trading Forex for about 3 years and Futures for about 3 Weeks. Both have different languages to learn but I believe they’re well worth the effort.

    If I can make a suggestion, just stay as small as you can trading Futures and Forex until you feel comfortable with the different types of price action.

  • wandering196

    I took one forex setup. I use them

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Reg. today’s entries – so far so good 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How about options?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How many of you guys trade options? And if not how many are interested or are planning to?

  • wandering196

    I have not traded them but I am following along on your series and at least I trust you to not lead me astray!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    For no particular reason – Mole is going old school tonight:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMZi25Pq3T8

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Mmmmwwuaaahaaaaahaaa!!

  • strider

    I have an OptionHouse acct and make 3 or 4 trades a week in it. I like the gold posts but am not into fx at present. The option info has been interesting to me.

  • wandering196

    Love the cat picture

  • Bernie

    tried it but failed miserably

  • Bernie

    The problem is – I am sleeping when the trade is usually ‘taken’. I would take the trade if it goes together with my setup, provided that I am awake when the post comes out. But keep it up Sir Mole… I have gained tonnes in knowledge from just following your setups

  • Rusty Shank

    Long time lurker here – I mostly trade options. I would have gotten out of them had I not realized early on that position management is key. Rolling, adding to the position, achieving a profit target (I rarely expire trades), etc. are all elements of nearly every position and should be planned ahead of the trade. A lot of the campaign and system concepts discussed here are applicable and can be adapted to options trading. You simply have to be disciplined and have a rules based approach. The biggest trap beginners fall into (I fell into it) is to put on trades of uncomfortable size, usually after winning some smaller ones, and hope to win with no plan. Iron Condors and credit spreads were the flame I kept touching. Took a while to recover. Nirvana for me was when I began to ignore the expiration graph and manage completely by the Greeks and the T+0 line. A lot of my positions now look really weird but I have far better control of my risk. I also trade only the indexes (SPX, RUT) – tax advantages and the risk of them halving over night due to some dumb ass cooking the books is low (Hey, Bill Ackman – how’s it going out there?). Very interested in anything you’d have to present on managing option positions and controlling risk, particularly by using the Greeks.

  • javier

    I also trade options on SPX but I am only 6 months into it. In that time, I have learned to not hold until expiration, get out as soon as trade starts going against you, and lock in your profits. A trade can quickly go from a profit to loss. It has happened to me many times but I still struggle with this due to the PDT rule.
    This week, I will try to play earnings. I’m in a position in NXP (symbol NXPI) and tomorrow I’ll play AAPL.
    What are the tax advantages of SPX? Something about 60% long term, 40% short term?

  • javier

    I just took a look at a gold futures chart. It appears that the implied volatility is trending lower which might result in /GC trading sideways for some time to come. I might look into selling an iron condor on one of the gold ETFs. Maybe GLD? This strategy is definitely not a day trade; it is longer term. I’ll look into it sometime later this week. Thanks.

  • Paleface

    I only traded options and only with limited risk – long C/P or credit spreads – and only with small money for learning in my spare time. I learned that spare time is not enough, and complex spreads can be very profitable for your broker.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think GLD or GDX may work well. We’ll look into it on our end as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I love them felines 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Remember Squeaky?

  • Tomcat

    I have been trading options for 3-4 years now. Mostly on the selling side, but have been known to dip into bull call spreads or bearish put spreads.

  • wandering196

    Yes 🙁

  • Mark Shinnick

    My systems eschew no-motion positions. By their nature, a setup is a time/price point pregnant with new motion potential. They take time to evolve without productive price action; time which is wasting to other opportunities if invested before the setup ripens.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Cats….are sort of like more highly evolved… rats.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • wandering196

    That’s so true, but the only rats I like are the ones found here!

  • Rusty Shank

    Yes – index options are treated as 1256 contracts by the IRS, same as futures. My particular style of trading is to not watch intraday – I make a maximum of one adjustment per position per day, either at lunch or late afternoon. If I can’t absorb the overnight gap or morning move on an index, then I’m trading too large. Sticking to indexes helps here. When I started out I traded options on all sorts of equities – GOOGL helped convince me to stay with indexes. I will never trade that ticker again as long as I live.

    There are different styles of trading and each person needs to find the style that fits them to be successful – if scalping fits you then so be it. That said, if you’ve only been trading options for six months, you may want to slow down. There’s quite a bit you can do without needing to adjust multiple times per day. It’s also less stressful!

  • evilasevildoes

    my kitty is a market maven~ Swear to God…..spent a bundle finding her when she got lost once……she wakes me up to trade the big moves….too bad gal who found her spayed her Had her kitties pledged for boat load…….dont forget to chip your kitty