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Fed Comedy
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Fed Comedy

by The MoleFebruary 14, 2017

Once again I am seeing a lot of bad comedy trickling out of the Federal Reserve, and in particular preceding FOMC rate decisions or announcements. A salient example scrolled across my twitter feed just moments ago with Jeff Lacker allegedly having stated that the Fed should raise rates sooner rather than later. Apparently Mr. Lacker is once again engaging in the verbal equivalent of smashing pumpkins, given that chairwoman Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak today as well as tomorrow and will most certainly continue the FOMC’s dovish course. In particular as President Trump has continuously highlighted a strong belief in a weaker Dollar.

The floating of FOMC ‘trial balloons’ of course is nothing new and has been increasingly employed over the past two years to dangle the idea of an impending rate hike. Which of course will never come, and if it does for pure political reasons will most likely not exceed more than a few obligatory basis points. To the financial mainstream media however, spearheaded by the blockheads over at CNBC, any inane uttering by any non-voting FOMC member is pure clickbait manna from heaven and thus is eagerly disseminated to its diminishing audience of gullible retirees. No matter that Mr. Lacker is known to be the ‘great dissenter’ and that a quick Google search shows anyone interesting in digging deeper that he has been pushing ‘a case for strengthening rates‘ for years now. And we all know how that turned out.

Clearly one day the Federal Reserve will actually increase rates by an amount that actually matters and affects interest rates in a meaningful way. That day may be tomorrow or it may be five years from now. In the interim I strongly suggest that you fade any and all noise related the raising of interest rates, for nothing of substance will ever be reported by the mainstream media until the day after it actually happened and at that point it will be old news. And if you are interested in silly comedic acts then you’re probably better off looking elsewhere.

2017-02-14_spoos_update

Once again we need to attend to some of our campaigns. The E-Mini has continued higher and I’m placing my stop below the recent spike low near 2313.25.

2017-02-14_gold_update

Gold almost stopped us out yesterday – we missed that little shake out by a tick or two. Looking brilliant now and the odds for a punch higher have increased significantly. Better to be lucky than good!

2017-02-14_soybeans_update

Soybeans not doing anything and we’re hanging tight. The good news is that, assuming that it continues higher, we’ll be enjoying a hell of a lot of support context further down the line. But for now we shouldn’t over think this and leave our trail in place.

2017-02-14_corn_update

I’m not sure if you caught corn – I was lucky as I grabbed it early in the morning. If you did or entered a bit higher than I suggest you move your stop to break/even now.

2017-02-14_USDJPY

USD/JPY is an entry right here and now and until about 113.15’7. It’s a small entry for me however as the FOMC announcement tomorrow may cause volatility. Stop goes below 112.80.

2017-02-14_AUDUSD_got_away

AUD/USD is the one that got away. Remember how I was waiting for a fake out to the downside first? Well, we got one to the upside followed by a retest of the support line. Truth be told I actually saw it yesterday afternoon and was considering to go long. But the retest wasn’t thorough yet and then I forgot all about it. I catch you next time, Gadget – next time!!

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    equities to treasury ratio.
    I don’t like it, but a break higher in the ratio *is* likely.

    whether that means equities up, or treasuries down, that’s up to you to speculate.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b44daca1c0f7b3047faa925629844312f7842c3b9e5652b2ff9d36ab460e0464.png

  • Tomcat

    Now they are trolling: FED’S LACKER: MAY NEED MORE THAN THREE RATE HIKES IN 2017

    LOL

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    Not sure, but so far, based on muted action in gold, equities, looks like the market doesn’t believe a word.

  • ridingwaves

    why should they

  • Tomcat

    Bc the Fed is comprised of “trustworthy, honest individuals” that wouldnt want to mislead the market participants???

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Tomcat

    The time that I was alluding to in yesterday’s post appears to be closer and closer: YELLEN: BALANCE SHEET WILL EVENTUALLY BE SUBSTANTIALLY SMALLER THAN AT CURRENT TIME

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I’ve been making these observations about interest rates few times in this space:
    a. based on Long Bond Yield (30 year treasuries) – rates have not changed in last 5 years
    b. in the interim, there where 2 rallies and 1 drop on nearly 50% each
    C. FED doesn’t matter, as they are UNABLE to control or influence rates at all in years (and maybe never, except for brief periods during big crisis)

    These fuckers keep talking nonsense on boob-tube in order to collect speaking fees and guarantee themselves a book deals in retirement. Meanwhile, federal reserve is running a top-notch bond hedge fund, with huge profits and zero transparency. Just don’t listen to them, cus they are following market price anyway… he-he

  • Mark Shinnick

    This is a pretty good miners inflection, been short since earlier but this level is a pretty good sweetspot.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    She was talking about mortgage-based bonds.
    Translation:
    “MBS is such a great deal that we will keep them to maturity and there is no way in hell we sell them back to you”
    (remember, they where buying these for pennies on a dollar during financial crisis and telling us that they doing people a favor…)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, there is sometimes some terrific nitty-gritty to be gleaned in these hearings.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    o, i love this shit.
    Greenspan was the best by far, tho

  • ridingwaves

    then they allowed PE and Hedgies to buy bulk foreclosures for pennies on the dollar, paid them monthly to keep the homes for 5 years minimum while price fixing housing so they couldn’t lose…..the biggest theft of other peoples money in the history of the world…..

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pretty much wiped out that cyclical home buying opportunity for the low and middle classes.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    “cyclical home buying opportunity” is quite a pickle…
    when good deals are available – people don’t have cash, credit is not available and jobs aren’t secure… hence the reason for ‘opportunity’

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…so more relative renters and less home ownership rate was the net result, breaking multi-generational trendlines.

  • Mark Shinnick

    “…reduced dynamism in the US economy…” Wow that pretty much says it all coming after all these years of meddling.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I long stopped listening to this crap. Kabuki theater at best.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Your a good guy to listen to, glad your around.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    got stopped out of my /NG long. It just keeps drifting lower.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…creeping…good you noticed that.

  • ridingwaves

    exactly, I always thought they should have gave returning vets from recent war in ME the chance to buy those foreclosures for pennies on dollar, they seem to be good for neighborhoods and bring stability. Plus they deserved it much more than blackrock and friends…

  • ridingwaves

    pottersvilles in real life were created…price fixing the housing market was the nuclear option…everything to maintain the illusion
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-18/u-s-poised-to-lift-35-year-old-real-estate-tax-on-foreigners

  • Billabong

    Short / long? Time frame?

  • Billabong

    Creeping? On the daily, it’s a short trend trade if one can stay with the widow maker…

  • ridingwaves

    for tomcat, I bought at the arrow…sold limit today..
    ridingwaves Tomcat a month ago
    an AGN move down to 210 or bit lower would create a beautiful cup and handle on daily….GILD is not a bad option here either, looks like a triple bottom if their is such a thing….
    https://s13.postimg.org/bbhtgbson/agn_entry.png

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Was initially short recently and now flipped long w 1/2 position in GLD https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c07bf5f1aca793fcc66f8bb7aa855f2c9c00be6fd72f77ccf5aaff9dcff8722.png

  • ridingwaves

    looks good based on macd crossover?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Short miners again, stop very tight.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    well see! yeh MACD does look good but I try not to get too excited about the price based indicators unless I am just playing within a set range. I had a very short bias based on the daily until yesterday but the selling pressure is just not there from a volume + steepness standpoint

  • Mark Shinnick

    That must feel satisfying :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, most of my windows are intraday.

  • ridingwaves

    tvix on 11/4 22, today at 4.12….yikes

  • Tomcat

    You and I both RW. Cheers. Sold out of REGN, albeit too early

  • Mark Shinnick

    …and its been so reliable that way….for ages.

  • ridingwaves

    congrats…only played 1/2 R as I’m not a c&h evangelist….felt it was tossup but it was an easy trade to place a stop and let it run…alot of bio symbols took off at that time too..

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I went short IBB yesterday, bit too early. Nice trade on AGN!

  • ridingwaves

    those instruments should be shelved….only the big boys can win that game…
    and shorts…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    no disrespect meant but even if intraday most of the time those long VXX/ TVIX trades are swimming upstream. Odds are way way better going long XIV or shorting VXX/ TVIX

  • ridingwaves

    long term cycle charts show GC and SI making a move north but those can fail too…

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    FWIW, I’m reducing my portfolio of stocks.
    Today cash stands at about 15%, with few GTC sell orders I intend to make my sleep more peaceful over coming days.
    Not calling for a major top, but …

  • Mark Shinnick

    I have no real confidence a long vol position will be as protected as the short position has been. As we’ve seen with all the other double-crossings, I doubt that any genuinely super-profitable vol position will be held to its contract.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Exiting most or all of this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Well, 😉
    Here is the thing – first of all, we are kinda running out of time (you’ve seen my video’s, right?)
    secondly, I took out the meat of this move fair and square (bought low, now selling high)
    lastly, my portfolio got really messy. many stocks underperforming the index, showing weakness (which I think is a distribution)
    To be clear, I think whatever kind of a dip we going to get – it will be a buying opportunity again.
    My long-term portfolio is unchanged.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Yes, fair and square.
    Now post another NYAD (or was it NYUD?) chart, you are overdue.

  • Billabong

    I had a couple of gold miners give me sell signals on the daily during the 3:30 session.

  • Billabong

    Large cap money center banks just started ascending the upper BB after buy signals a couple of days ago … interest rates go higher, banks make big bucks … the discounting move has begun.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    last update was in January.
    chart and video here:
    http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/2017/01/video-t-theory-observations-1-2017.html

    There is nothing new, not even a possibility. Sorry.
    Any way I look at it – there is a period of heightened volatility in near future

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III