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Federal Housecleaning
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Federal Housecleaning

by The MoleFebruary 15, 2017

It’s that time of the month again and that means blood spills all over the place and rapid changes of emotions for no apparent reason. Of course I’m talking about a Fed announcement day which is the financial menstrual cycle determining the fertility of your bond holdings and thus implicitly the value of the remaining currency in your pockets. Not wanting to get pregnant ever again after one too many abortions the Fed chose a multi-level regiment of birth control measures in 2008 and then proceeded on a financial partying spree, with apparently no end in sight.

I for one took the red pill and stopped asking questions about financial ethics sometime in early 2010 and have simply enjoyed the ride ever since. Others weren’t so lucky in that unfortunately their moral values outweighed their common sense when it came to placing high probability trades.

Of course every party will come to an end at some point and I never test my luck on FOMC day or related occasions like today when Mrs. Yellen delivers one of her bi-annual testimonies before the U.S. Congress. Plenty of opportunity for whipsaw and it’s best to hunker down and wait out the storm.

2017-02-15_spoos_update

Our E-Mini campaign has progressed our wildest imaginations and I am once again using the recent spike low  to advance my trailing stop. I suggest you do the same.

2017-02-15_USDJPY_update

USD/JPY was one of our entries yesterday and here we’re advancing our stop to break/even. Looking pretty good here and my preliminary target is 115.48.

2017-02-15_corn_update

Corn is looking iffy but our trail is now locked at 1R and change which should at least put a bit of coin in our pockets if this one falls apart. FYI – a 2nd entry would have high probabilities if we get a decent retest of the 370 mark. But let’s be positive – perhaps this one reverses and carries higher.

2017-02-15_bonds_stop

Bonds were stopped out at about 1R profit, which is very unfortunate as I had not trailed it properly at 3R+ due to a mistake. I had then decided to keep my stop where it was in hopes of a runner and that turned out to be a miserable decision. Lesson learned – let the campaign logic do its thing and don’t over think it.

2017-02-15_soybeans_stop

Soybeans is also done and got stopped out at 1.2R – not bad but I had hopes for this one. Better luck next time but obviously not today.

2017-02-15_copper_watch

I would grab a long on copper right now but am very hesitant ahead of Mrs. Yellen addressing Congress. So it’ll just have to wait until later this afternoon when things have quieted down a bit.

That’s all for now – I see you guys later this afternoon.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AcoBrasil

    CPI figures all came in over expectations.

    https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/

  • StockTalker

    Wow, signal today says it all.

  • Yoda

    that’s an ugly start

  • Yoda

    Yup, what goes straight up…

  • StockTalker

    Closed my long 401K positions yesterday.

  • saltwaterdog

    88 days now without a 1% closing decline or greater in the SPX (Oct11)

  • ridingwaves

    I never get the hot maid where I stay…bought tza for day

  • ridingwaves

    in a roundabout way, it’s why I still haven’t been stopped out of CL position. The Central Bankers need inflation to keep this game going, they have thrown everything at it with little inflation pressure…but Oil is their inflationary groundhog day…so my bet is with them little pigmen

  • mSquare

    Stocks only go up!
    If you see otherwise, you are subscribing to fake data

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    No worries mate, I’m sure you’ll get some pussy.
    Feral Housecleaning, woohoo! {snicker}

    http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_mdr1r4aHHZ1r2sq16o1_500.jpg

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m completely disoriented by the movement today. I understand the CB inflation push, but am failing to understand the equity and currency market reactions.

  • AcoBrasil

    Crude and gasoline inventories came in way over expectations. I’m surprised that CL isn’t soaring on the news given all of the other backward reactions across the tickers.

  • saltwaterdog

    All of this noise is clearly relative only to expectations. Keep in mind that today’s release is now a DOE/EIA release, whereas it used to be from the API. The API now puts out a less-trumpeted # on Tuesday afternoons (EST) that is closely aligned with what is reported on Wednesday. Yesterday the API said we had a 9mm+ bbl build and CL “sold off”, albeit only about 30c, on the headline… but the larger point I believe is that expectations are then formed for today’s #, which then was more in-line.

  • StockTalker

    That 3 drives higher, shorted /ES

  • ridingwaves

    that pussy is hotter than the maids where I roll…

  • Mark Shinnick

    From a measuring objective point of view, stocks have more upside.

  • StockTalker

    Blow-off all over it.

  • ridingwaves

    the vix divergence is growing

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, interesting stuff. Do we have any clues its not just another bear trap setup?

  • evilasevildoes
  • ridingwaves

    evils chart above could make things interesting…

  • evilasevildoes
  • AcoBrasil

    Stopped out of my UVXY today for a loss.
    Sold my remaining Brazilian holdings on the surge. I’ll be looking for another good shorting entry in the next day or two. Emotions are running too hot now. I need to step away.

  • ZigZag

    Watch /CC. It double bottomed on the hourly chart this morning and is up 4.45%, after being in a free fall for some time. (actually on the hourly and the monthly going back 8 years)

  • ridingwaves

    AVXL moved my stop up to 6.25 , it could go nuts and turn into blow off top if some big buyers show up, Merck dropped their Alzheimers drug, these guys might have the cure, short need 31 days to cover….but I’ll just play the price

    ridingwaves 16 days ago
    L AVXL and PIRS S at -40C limit
    https://s27.postimg.org/6k8pjd8pv/AVXL_daily_snippet.png

  • StockTalker

    Wild one, large moves like that can get retested quickly.

  • ridingwaves

    enjoy the sunshine….
    looking as some short index plays but might hold off until opex is over this week with 3 day weekend ahead

  • StockTalker

    At this point will wait for a correction and count my blessings and short the bitch.

  • Ronebadger

    Did anyone mention the VIX up 9%+ today…so far…

  • ridingwaves

    Greenlander seems to have a good handle of the backwardation of VIX trade
    would be interested to hear him chime in…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did anyone read my pertinent posts the other day?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    snort

  • StockTalker

    Good place as any to pull the plug:) /TF & /CL are weak

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Tomcat

    Call me impatient, but I changed my mind, going long Natty here vs 2.85. because what is 7cents between friends???

  • Yoda

    LOL

  • ridingwaves

    S out for 4R, will buy back if given chance lower, feels like shorts are only sellers here

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im long avg 2.959, been holding for a week now. Every rip seems to get sold though, and the warm winter aint helping either

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Great every by you by the way

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    short IWM/ IBB as of 2 days ago. Ugh. Giving these one more day…

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I’ve been reading up in XIV/ VXX products and I still don’t fully understand them except that I do know the backwardation helps the long VXX.

    Right now still strong contango per VIX Central
    http://vixcentral.com/

  • ridingwaves

    bio sector is looking really bullish which is scary considering where SPX is…

  • Mark Shinnick

    You are strongly trending in pertinence :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…but while one drowns in image-creation debt, that other guy writes off his Hyundai driving to see girlfriends in all his investment properties.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    oops my stops took care of that. I have 1/2 IWM still on. Thought I would survive another day

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well….if vol is to better spike today should be soon.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Wow this campaign is like the energy bunny – it keeps on going and going and going….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah….just put on some tvix. Very tight stop.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    Afternoon Folks, been out and about the last few days.

    I’ve been holding on to a shaky Long in Crude and a decent short in Bonds. I’m also a glutton for punishment and have been working on a plan to bring NUGT and DUST back into my stable. Of course, I missed one hell of a ride on NUGT and am only in stalking mode at this moment. Waiting for a little reversal in price action so I can try to get into sync with these two gems.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    BL holding levered funds? I’m shocked.

    sleep with this chart, it might help.

    EDIT: it was a helluva ride for me.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a97fbcfd64e2e9ef7debaa7eb968ef606c368fff900b801a41d023f3ddf26cea.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    So typical…no real mojo in vol not much gain there.

  • Yoda

    There is room for more upside

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I would *love* to see some resistance at 60. a pullback to 55, then all in at 62’ish.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    of course, I’d don’t run on one chart.
    The ratio chart needs to cross the median.
    if Mole chirps in, for a triple confirm. woohoo.
    one can dream.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19391bd77e6a7d2182e0c6dd0770dae0926880962deb69b9c5f9a5d301924cfe.png

  • Yoda

    Pullback could have been completed today before the open. A new leg up could be in process now. IDK if Mole is still long GC though. I am.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ohhh…comin along…

  • BobbyLow

    I’m pretty sure there’s more room to the upside as well. But more often than not whenever I’ve jumped into a trade (as in chasing) long after it has begun its run, I’ve been burned.

  • Edd

    welcome to the dark side!!

  • BobbyLow

    LOL

  • Mark Shinnick

    Bright side too, its a miners inflection area so plenty to stalk :)

  • Mark Shinnick

    Going ON with some of that.

  • Yoda

    just strolled over at ZE, and found this post:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-15/macro-trader-warns-might-be-good-it-gets-us-investors
    It is not the article that is so interesting to me but the evident bullishness in the comments section below it.

  • Edd

    my average R per day on my 10min system is running 9.4% less in February compared to January. Same exact system. I suspect January will probably be an outlier as we move through the year.
    My daily system month to date is running 7.5% less than January.
    No tweaks needed. Performing slightly above backtested results.

  • OJuice

    I told you, 100 pointer!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Friendly reminder that CL and ZL rolled over.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Excellent observation lots of evident emotion, but not quite universal, thanks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    falling dollar, maybe its time to enter the ring?

    Bonds took a massive hit on the 14th, about the same time Dollar pumped.
    look at the volume.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc45255bf63fc67f8dfa26d1a56fc1716a6a22372098bdc0b88cf5ea0867441e.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stil long tvix.