It’s that time of the month again and that means blood spills all over the place and rapid changes of emotions for no apparent reason. Of course I’m talking about a Fed announcement day which is the financial menstrual cycle determining the fertility of your bond holdings and thus implicitly the value of the remaining currency in your pockets. Not wanting to get pregnant ever again after one too many abortions the Fed chose a multi-level regiment of birth control measures in 2008 and then proceeded on a financial partying spree, with apparently no end in sight.
I for one took the red pill and stopped asking questions about financial ethics sometime in early 2010 and have simply enjoyed the ride ever since. Others weren’t so lucky in that unfortunately their moral values outweighed their common sense when it came to placing high probability trades.
Of course every party will come to an end at some point and I never test my luck on FOMC day or related occasions like today when Mrs. Yellen delivers one of her bi-annual testimonies before the U.S. Congress. Plenty of opportunity for whipsaw and it’s best to hunker down and wait out the storm.
Our E-Mini campaign has progressed our wildest imaginations and I am once again using the recent spike low to advance my trailing stop. I suggest you do the same.
USD/JPY was one of our entries yesterday and here we’re advancing our stop to break/even. Looking pretty good here and my preliminary target is 115.48.
Corn is looking iffy but our trail is now locked at 1R and change which should at least put a bit of coin in our pockets if this one falls apart. FYI – a 2nd entry would have high probabilities if we get a decent retest of the 370 mark. But let’s be positive – perhaps this one reverses and carries higher.
Bonds were stopped out at about 1R profit, which is very unfortunate as I had not trailed it properly at 3R+ due to a mistake. I had then decided to keep my stop where it was in hopes of a runner and that turned out to be a miserable decision. Lesson learned – let the campaign logic do its thing and don’t over think it.
Soybeans is also done and got stopped out at 1.2R – not bad but I had hopes for this one. Better luck next time but obviously not today.
I would grab a long on copper right now but am very hesitant ahead of Mrs. Yellen addressing Congress. So it’ll just have to wait until later this afternoon when things have quieted down a bit.
That’s all for now – I see you guys later this afternoon.