Fiat And Gold

Thus far that daily NLSL on the E-Mini is holding up just fine, once again suggesting that buyers are willing to jump in and drive this thing higher at the slightest dip. Since Christmas we haven’t as much as touched a NLSL – today we missed it by one tick.

But let’s talk about the Dollar and then we’ll look at gold – let’s start with the greenback. Much to my surprise the DX managed to climb above that diagonal resistance line as well as its 80 mark today. Yes, this is rather positive but ole’ bucky is far from being out of the woods.

The monthly panel show us that it’s been unable to get out of the gate all last year and that the 25-month SMA right above ought to be good for some resistance. Currently it is trading above its 25-week SMA, which has been served as a brick wall since last November. If it manages to climb above all that then there’s still that multi-year diagonal which awaits 82.5. I hope we get there as it would be a tremendous trading opportunity near a very meaningful inflection point.

Gold finally took off to the downside of that sideways triangle – I had no idea which way it would break but I did suggest that it would pick up some pace either way. If you took that entry near the lower diagonal then there’s nothing to do but to follow the 25-hour SMA at this point.

The monthly panel has us below the 100-week SMA, which actually was the basis for the lower border of that sideways triangle. This breach could have significant implications thus catching this entry was very important to me (and to you). Yes, this could still be a false breach, so don’t get comfortable just yet.

Similar story on silver – after giving up that 25-day SMA it never looked back. Next significant hurdle awaits us near 29.6 where we’ll meet that 100-day BB.

A few setups for my intrepid subs:
More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Currencies – the GBP/JPY is kissing its 25-day SMA right now. Looking as weak as airport coffee and I’d be short here with a stop above that 25-hour SMA.

NLBL retest on AUD/USD – I love those retests and will use it as my inflection point.

Bonds – the 30-year once again is back at its diagonal – trying to drive everyone crazy, this one. If you haven’t taken out a position this is a great spot to take either a failure here or a breach higher.

Sugar has descended back to its diagonal support line. It’s been holding up for months and I’ll be long here until I see a breach lower.


Honorable Mention: Really nice Mole signals today on the Zero:


This entry was posted on Thursday, February 14th, 2013 at 2:06 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • i Bergamot

    Dear Molecool,
    Personally, and as representative of all joyful Leaches I thank you for not hiding Gold/Silver analysis in member section.
    Great roadmap, as always

  • i Bergamot

    What did I say?

  • Joe_Jones

    Sorry Bergamot, but that seat is still being occupied by our resident Gerbil.

  • Skynard

    DISQUS screws up that way for some reason.

  • i Bergamot

    member of Joyful Leaches
    no seat, standing room only
    How is that?

  • i Bergamot

     Yep, just made an idiot out of myself
    I’ll live

  • Skynard

    /ZB picking up steam all day.

  • Skynard

    Lookks like our re-test:)

  • Skynard

    Picked up 151’s expire tomorrow. Die, gas pumper!

  • AmazingLarry

    Monthly gold BB’s clamping tighter. Now sitting at $1544 and $1811. I don’t see and 5 consecutive monthly candles in the red looking back to 2002. Feb open is $1665. She’s gonna blow!

  • Darth_Gerb

    you can be Vice Leech.  one heartbeat away.
    but I share your opinion.
    Mole could hide much more ..but chooses to throw crumbs to the needy.
    whether it’s to attract more rats, or just good Karma, who cares. 😉
    Cheers! (Gerb lifts a crumb in victory)

  • Darth_Gerb

    *close up your books – here comes teacher*

  • molecool

    Awesome Mole signals today.

  • molecool

    OORR you could just buy a suscription – doesn’t exactly break the bank…

  • molecool

    I’m actually thinking of posting less freebies, sorry guys. If you have been here for a few months I think it’s fair you pay into the fund.

  • i Bergamot

     Please, don’t take it personal, but I am not allowed to pay for ANY memberships or subscriptions.
    I think your analysis and service are second to none, and actually I was a paying subscriber in a past.
    I’ll be back, but first I need to prove to myself that I can hack it all on my own. That was also one of the reasons why I started to keep a journal, and then turned it into my blog. Now I have no place to hide, no excuses – wins and losses are all mine.
    PS. Ahh, meds are working :-)

  • mrmik3

    green is always good my friend!

  • mrmik3

    just keep doing what your doing boss it works!!.. and thank you!!

  • AmazingLarry

    Before subbing, I was always surprised how much you did give away, which is why I hung around. Worth every penny now, especially on the Sunday long term charts hidden in ‘the lair.’ I used to wonder: “WTF he got in there!?!” lol. 

  • Alexander

    Apropos gold, I have a question for the experts here, since this is a bit confusing for me and I want to confirm my initial thoughts. (I read elsewhere that stories like “Buying foreign stock and considering currencies” can even give experts a hard time. So I hope to receive a few insightful answers here). Consider, I live in Europe and I have a funded DE and US account. Neglecting the current Gold trend, if gold were to rise, which would be better in my situation: Buying Xetra Gold (German Gold Fund traded in Euro’s) or GLD?; or perhaps 3rd option neither, since the Euro is currently appreciating versus the dollar. Following this, I would like to make a memo for taking positions in 4 possibilities. Long: Gold rising vs Euro rising (Dollar falling), Gold rising vs Dollar rising (Euro falling); Short: Gold falling vs Euro rising (Dollar falling), Gold falling vs Dollar rising (Euro falling).

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

  • i Bergamot

     Visibly both charts exhibit similar pattern, which is very surprising to me.
    Now, Im not even sure I am looking at the right thing. I got Xetra-Gold, symbol 4GLD, last price 39.61 from the site where everything is in German. Assuming its the right one:
    4GLD and $GLD both bottomed in May 2012; both topped in October.
    Now it gets tricky, because Xetra-Gold is at levels of that May bottom, while $GLD is a little higher by comparison. (Sorry to state the obvious, but I’m thinking as I typing this). The difference is attributable to stronger Euro, as I understand. Their expense ratios are almost the same.
    My point simply is this: instead of driving yourself crazy by playing with 4 variables, you need to answer this question:
    Are you trading Gold or investing in yellow metal?
    1.If you are going long now for a trade – $GLD would be my choice, because US Dollar seems to be more stable currency. European financial ministers got their heads firmly up their ass – who knows what Euro is going to do in a couple of months.
    (Disclaimer: I am short Silver right now via ZSL)
    2. If you want to invest in Gold – buy physical
    (Disclaimer: I own gold and silver bullion, will buy more. Not going to sell ever – its not an investment for me, its an “O-Shit stash”)
    Hope it helps

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