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Five PnFs To Go
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Five PnFs To Go

by The MoleJune 15, 2012

Finally we are getting somewhere. We find ourselves near or at inflection points across the board and I’ll send you into the weekend with five helpings of P&F goodness: Equities (SPX/spoos), gold, copper, crude, and of course the Dollar. Let’s start with the SPX as it’s right at its volume hole, which of course is the perfect vantage point to screw with pretty much everyone over the impending rumor, news, and event filled weekend:

Here’s the volume hole and we are right below recent highs making it perfectly ambivalent – assuming of course we’ll close he week nearby.

Speaking of which my weekly spoos chart has us right at a NLBL – could this be any more cruel? You got to love this for pure evil intent.

Fading all the noise as usual is my SPX P&F chart. It tells us a slightly different story in that 1330 may be what everyone’s focused on right now but that SPX 1340 (ca. ES 1333.25 given fair value of -6.65.) is really where the rubber meets the road. We are already seeing a bullish price objective of 1390 and in my mind 1340 is the trigger – you want to be long once we close above that.

Let’s move on to commodities and then ole’ bucky. Please step into my newly decorated lair:

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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Gold has done its part in shaking out any weak hands and is now on route to 1660 (sorry for mistyping that on the chart). If we get there I consider it to be a great point to take a quick short trade.

The P&F actually reveals an earlier trigger point at 1650, most likely leading us to the bullish price objective of 1850. Heck, that would be a nice 200 handles – better than a kick in the shin, n’est-ce-pas? I really like this potential setup – getting bullish trend confirmation at 1650 and being able to squeeze in a quick short at 1660. Assuming of course we get there – obviously the MSM will do its part to inject a ton of volatility over the weekend.

Crude – you GOT to love this setup. Seems like an established floor pattern to me and we are right at the NLBL. I do have a hard time taking it right here today but hope that we are still nearby on Monday.

The P&F seems to be largely in sync – our inflection point here is 84.5. Bear in mind that we already met our bearish price objective of 84.5 – so the odds here right now ain’t too bad. No guarantees of course but technically speaking a NLBL breach above should lead us higher.

Copper also looking very interesting as it’s at the 25-day SMA, potentially ready to spike higher here on Monday so keep an eye on it after hours.

The P&F is still a bit undeveloped, which is why I am a bit hesitant still. We also missed the bearish PO by a few ticks and I would have loved to see that fulfilled. We would need to paint 3.55 in order to flag us a low pole warning (which would be bullish of course).

Finally here’s ole’ bucky dropping below its 25-day SMA. And that may act as resistance next week, even if we jump back higher again.

Here’s the P&F, which IMNSHO is a lot more revealing as it puts as right at the brink of triggering a bearish price objective of what – 80.7? This is not going to do much good to my EUR exchange rate – darn it! Hoping for support here out of purely selfish reasons but technically a drop lower near the 80 mark is a distinct possibility once we pass 81.7.

That’s it – I think I have done enough damage this week. Enjoy your weekend!

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • AMCabrera

    great post Mole thank you.

  • AMCabrera

    great post Mole thank you.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are easily pleased 😉

    Ten un buen fin de semana.

  • ds2

    Very helpful.

  • ds2

    Very helpful.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can only take so much praise… 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I can only take so much praise… 😉

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    1340 taken..now where would most place stops maybe couple points higher.

  • ronebadger

    Thanks Mole, very timely.

  • ds2

    spy max pain 135  –  we are at 134

  • ronebadger

    I’m thinking blue arrows ain’t workin today…like other days with multiple BAs, and the market kept going against them…THAT was a sign of further movement against them….just saying

  • AMCabrera

    You do the same.

  • StrikeFirst

    This week was exhausting.

    Still came out with a net profit, though.

    This is a great blog with great members.

    But it’s time for a drink now.

    Cheers!

  • simonn1080

    seems like a gimmee to me.. Almost as good as an entry as the post spain banking bailout

  • ronebadger

    Seinfeld! (since we are doing NBC comedies)

  • itcomesupinwaves

     I tried yesterday and got stopped out too.

  • beentohardknocksU

    Is there a secret for making the zero screen appear all on one screen?  Pain in the arse every time it refreshes to have to slide it over three inches to the right to see what it is doing.  

  • AMCabrera

    I would find it very very mean if the market just stayed right here. 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    well, I have seen pinnings.

    (but observations are memory fallible)

  • ronebadger

    change screen resolution?

  • Joe_Jones

    therefore it will 😉

  • beentohardknocksU

    30 mins to go, sitting right exactly on the line and no sign of the late day sell off.  Lot’s of balls out there to hold at this level through the weekend.  That being said, it’s hard to imagine “bad” news.  Greeks vote for the crazies and the sugar bowl gets filled by every central banker from Beijing to London and back again – market goes wild for joy.  Bad guys lose and market gives us relief rally.  What part of this is not already baked in?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Joe_Jones

    I think it’s official now: Trend day alerts suck!

  • AMCabrera
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s interesting to watch the SPY 134 calls in these last 15minutes..
    .09/.10 bid ask and SPY was 133.98

  • AMCabrera
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    *cough*
    brass

  • ronebadger

    ZL better…neither perfect

  • saints51

    What a comical and weak swing up on the ES. This is how we cross the Rubicon. Fuck that I like the other side better. I want a show damn it

  • supervilin

    stopped out from my silly lottery short. :) gambling is fun, but lets stick to the setups (mental note for myself) 

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    physical notes are even better.
    😉

  • ronebadger

    to JJ, we need a system for blue arrows as well, there’s something there…need more data/analysis (VOLAR???) 

  • AMCabrera

     De pinga! gotem I bet at 1342

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    emotions are killer.
    be Zen, be coin maker.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    SPy 134’s calls now in the money.
    no premium. (just an observation)

  • Joe_Jones

    all the best tools in the world cannot fight the CB’s will to ramp up markets on quadruple witching

  • AMCabrera

    mm you have some?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    no.
    I’m not THAT crazy.
    :-)

  • ronebadger

    almost a perfect straight trend line on the 5mnZL

    Against my better judgement, holding some longs over the weekend (regardless of last 15 mins of ES)…because, my better judgement usually sucks

  • AMCabrera

    I was about to say..damn you are one wild Gerbil with rabies. I like this new thing I call watchem Fridays it replaced trading on friday.

  • bdoone

    Option Max Pain all week in SPY was 134 (didnt look today though)  & QQQ was 63.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    it’s the way to go.  I started over a year ago.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    OpX Friday close in a few minutes.
    (Less is more)
    Have a Fantastic Weekend rats.
    Mole, keep doing what you are doing.
    -Ciao

  • saints51

    Yep DG all of yall have a good one too.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/acb4c23d-f25f-4391-af76-7fd4f40e3394/2012-06-13_1206.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/8c046445-741a-439b-8a7c-ea5cee413bae/2012-06-13_1326.png
     I was the same when I heard of DMs, it got to me too. SO what did I do I BROKE two original plans that could have been great. flipped them and boom. Especially with the AUD/USD I took the profit from the short I should have left the original buy. DID I? No, DMs creep me out. News once again showing its value…Obviously I was better off not hearing about it because if all other news items dont mess with traders minds like the data releases what have you, then FOR sure talk of DMs bringing out the torture devices will. Point of story be a hermit crab.

  • ronebadger

    Have a great weekend SS Rats!  Should be a nice one here on Long Island.  :)

  • newbfxtrader

    Have no clue how to read them P&fs but becoming a fan due to Moles uncannily accurate targets!

  • saints51

    Received my email from my FX broker and now the futures account I still have. Just wanted to share if anyone is trading Sunday be sure you make sure the broker hasn’t changed their margin requirements. Here is some of the email, other part was about the Greek elections.

    For this reason, Mirus Futures is increasing our day-trading margins to 3x the normal margin template for Currency Futures and the Dollar Index effective at 3:00 pm CT today, Friday, June 15th.We will re-evaluate the margin requirement by Monday morning and expect to return to our normal margin requirements by 9:00 am CT on June 18th.

  • amokta

    Happy Big Fat Greek Election Weekend everybody!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    They don’t seem to work well lately. Should I take them off?

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx mate.

  • Joe_Jones

    Personally I think so, they’re kinda of misleading. 

  • ds2

    NOOO.  Not yet.  I think they do work.  They are not going to fire all the time, but I think a 80% trend day is worth trading. I have another web based Trend Day indicator that didn’t fire today either.

  • Joe_Jones

    I think subjective signals are dangerous. Right now two persons can interpret the same signal differently. I would eliminate all doubts about the signal and would use a higher % of probability.

  • Joe_Jones
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    (I watch it every day)

  • wvobiker

    One of the FX brokers lowers the permitted leverage for EURCHF, AUDCHF, CHFJPY, CADCHF, GBPCHF, USDCHF and NZDCHF effective June 20th 19:000 CET to 1/8 of standard margin and on June 27th 19:00 CET to 1/16 (e.g. 400:1 changes to 25:1). Why???

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You’re really asking this question?