FOMC Wednesday

Rejoice ladies and leeches – it’s that time of the month – FOMC Wednesday is upon us again. Which is our collective cue to hunker down and wait for the obligatory wave of volatility to wash over us. I swear, every time I see that one on tomorrow’s event roster my eyes glaze over.

So let’s cut through the crap, shall we? I’ll be happy to tell you in advance what’s going to happen. Yellen is going to deliver her usual litany of reasons for not raising interest rates (namely a shitty economy based on cooked books, fudged numbers, and of course low employment participation) whilst continuing to dangle the magic hike carrot in the ‘not so distant future’ – but just out of reach enough to keep everyone guessing. The usual suspects paid to interpret the tea leafs are going to make sure to dissect every single word carefully and we may see a few wild swings across forex and equities (although those have been a lot more mild lately) while that’s going on. There you go – now you can move on with your day! 🙂

Not that it really matters as I don’t see much on the radar today I would touch with a ten foot pole. Nasty tape lately and my patience is wearing pretty damn thin. I’m sure you can empathize, unless you were on vacation in which case congrats you bastard – you didn’t miss a damn thing.

The one exception to all the market misery has been the one symbol I posted for the subs the other day. Sugar really sweetened my day as it finally got my memo and jumped higher during yesterday’s session. It has come down a bit since then but this is definitely a good start. It took me two attempts to get in there and I’m moving my stop a bit above break/even near the 100-hour SMA. This one could turn into a runner but and under normal conditions I would give it an 80% chance to advance higher. But these are not ‘normal conditions’ are they – which is why I have reduced my position sizing to 0.5R max per uncorrelated symbol.

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See you guys later this afternoon after the Yellinator.

Cheers,