Fantabulous Friday Wrap Up

I looked all over my charts and don’t have much to say this weekend. As I pointed out over a week ago – we were scheduled for a small shake out and that’s what we got starting Wednesday. However, we are not in major reversal territory, so I think the current pull down will be short lived.

Zero was in the zone on Friday – I again have added my commentary to the video.

The tape on the EUR/USD was a bit tougher due to massive G7 interventions. I offer what I think are sound interpretations but I don’t think that these signals are typical in any way. Would of course appreciate your POV as well – so please chime in.

The stainless steel rat crew has been pretty quiet as of late and I was wondering why. I prodded about this a few times and the general response I got was that people are bored and sick of the one sided tape. Quite frankly – I am a bit confused about that type of attitude. What’s wrong with a market that keeps going up? Always remember:

Old Turkey was dead right… “Well, you know this is a bull market!”

Volar quotes Livermore and his contemporaries for a reason. The game never changes because people will never change. If you want excitement, bright lights, and hot babes sitting on your lap  – go to Vegas. But if you want to bank coin consistently then participate in the tape that is – not the one you would like to see. At the end of the day there are only three outcomes to where the market can swing: up, down, or sideways. Frankly, I don’t care which way she goes as long as I bank coin on a regular basis. And if the tape keeps swinging up for months on end – who am I to complain?

Anyway, I’d really enjoy seeing a teeny bit more participation – especially considering that I just threw out ZeroFX for everyone to put under the microscope. You must have thoughts on the signal – great, confusing, bad, helpful – and maybe a combination thereof. Maybe you guys are seeing things I don’t – so let’s hear it! Any input and/or criticism is welcome.

Alright, three charts for the subs in preparation for Monday:
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

What really cracked me up last week was that the tape pulled back exactly where/when this market leaders/volume ratio predicted. I do however have doubts about a major reversal here and the signal may continue to drop without prices giving up much territory.

First up copper already pushed above an important medium term resistance line. And that is generally bullish for equities as well – unless this time tested correlation suddenly detaches.

And here we have the daily chart on the spoos featuring the current net lines sell level at 1324.5. And that is exactly where we left off on Friday – the Sunday night session is already trading above it, at least as I’m typing this. If we can stay above 1324.5 on the spoos the longs should be good to go this week – a breach may pull us toward 1315.



This entry was posted on Sunday, April 10th, 2011 at 9:39 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • maple

    Thank you, Mole. I appreciate it.

    Long since 1122.25. Sit on hands. Not much to say – the jonquils are blooming nicely.

  • Biowolf

    Just some feedback form Lower Slobovia.. The video of the SPX was very educating. The FX video was very confusing (plus the music on the FX is intolerable, why dont you play something soothing, the action is iridating enough) I cant tell which chart is what currency.
    Re: the general malaise (if there is such a thing). It is hard to go along with something people generally feel bad about (like this rally in equiities).
    Anyway, this might be just the case in my country.

  • molecool

    The FX video was tough to commentate due to the tape being heavy manipulated last week – that is not a common occurrence. Regarding the music – who doesn't like Depeche Mode??

  • molecool

    “I cant tell which chart is what currency.”

    Not sure what you mean – I put big labels on the chart.

  • Biowolf

    I dont know if you want to discus this, Mole, but I dont think the FX market was

    more manipulated last week than anyother time. What I hear is that central banks

    are responsible for FX moves now more than ever (not talking about G7) with so

    many coutries manupulating their currency starting off of course with China.

    Some say the Dollar will declines as long as the Yuan goes up. Asian Central

    Banks buy the Dollar to depreciate their currencies, then divesify into the Euro.

    Zitat von Disqus <>:

  • Biowolf

    The only window I get is the one with four currencies on it (Youtube) I cant

    blow it up.

    Zitat von Disqus <>:

  • molecool

    The G7 started to sell the Yen on March 18 – this is still going on.

  • molecool

    There is a full screen button.

  • Biowolf

    What I hear is the the G7 support is more symbolic than anything else. Only the

    BOJ actually intervened. Plus, in the meantime some people have realized that

    the situation in Japan is more fucked than generally understood and the

    repatriation fear was overdone.Anyway, these are all theories. If your ZL works

    out we dont have to worry about shit like this.

    Zitat von Disqus <>:

  • Biowolf

    Thanks for pointing this out

    Zitat von Disqus <>:

  • molecool

    Subscribers – please reload – I just added a few charts for tomorrow.

  • lunch_and_dinner

    Sorry I don't trade FX. Interesting article in zero hedge abount pimco:

    Gross is self serving but seems to get it right.

    Maybe the low participation is because everyone is watching Mika Tan?

  • ds2

    Thanks Mole,
    I think the aversion of the govt. shutdown is the news “which doesn't matter” that will give the longs the excuse to push it up again. We will see.

  • Gold_Gerb

    please, enough with the Tiger girlfriends..

  • molecool

    Kein Problem :-)

  • molecool

    I hope so too – still fiddling with the settings but I'm getting there :-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Mole. No need to be confused about “that” type of attitude.
    A lot of people are skeptic and don't drink the bullshit cool-aid.
    Nobody wants to be the last bagholder.
    It is normal that you'll lose participation if your views are perceived to side with a prospect not shared by some readers..
    Last week intra-day trading action was everything but bullish.
    A lot of professionals seemed to sell at high and during the sharp drops we had on Thursday and Friday (ref. emini Watch) . Anyway we'll see very soon the direction it'll take. I just hope fellow bullish rats here will be quick on the trigger to pass it to the dumber once timber is called.
    Zero is the Bomb though.

  • OllyVaradi

    Expectation for this week:

    Low range weekly movement on the Dow – max 240 pts for the weekly candle favouring downside so range expected is 12,194 – 12441.

    3 week average downside is 0.27% which has only been worse 22 weeks since '87 & some of then were Xmas & Thanksgiving weeks.

    Large movement has occurred from these positions before, mostly with downside resolution but if it does go up more than 1% then it'll most likely go another 1% at least.

    I very much feel we are nearing the end of this bull price-wise, time wise it may still drag on for a couple of weeks. BTW, Friday 29th April is a Bank Holiday here in the UK for Kate & Wills' wedding so that might be a good day for the world's markets to crash with the UK banksters being able to do nothing about it because they'll all be drinking Pimms at Henley working out who is more closely related to royalty.

    Mole: I will try & post some more although you might be asking me not to as the week drags on and hat tip for the ZeroX extension. You really are spoiling us.

    Volar: Again, thank you for your posts. Only minor feedback, some of the charts look a little “busy.” Especially the spaghetti one. Any way of getting your point across in a more succinct chart?

  • amokta

    Lets party like its 1799! Tulip bulbs anyone?
    I can sell you at fiat $1000 (thats cheap when priced in gold!)

    Can the markets go higher, are they overvalued, does price support fundamentals, is the market forward looking? Perhaps all we can do is trade that charts rather than looking for 'answers'

  • volar


    Feedback is great.

    After much time, poor prior experiences, I have taken the “noisy” route. Noise will force the eye to place less trust and more unbiasedness into the analysis. I just have found that raw averages and a STDEV do a poor job of explaining a reality. Or if I give you a 1 line seasonal index for the S&P you will place too much hope in something that I already know should not work in theory or practice (a strong bull market should not have the same shape as a very weak bear market). In fact bull markets are very strong in NOV/DEC and a bear market will be weak in DEC (common way of identifying one)

    Here is that raw index- notice this has nothing to do with a moving average- just yearly average price.

    you would have placed too much hope in an average- which (a) ignores the volatility and (b) ignores momentum and (c) is full of hindsight bias- hence i built this:

    The wording on the chart is key- aka outliers and “what we do not know.”Or the spring and summer have some seasonality, but there is downside risk- unlike the holidays and Q1.
    I believe bull markets will behave similar to bull markets- hence the recent rally. I built this chart to show you how similar a bull market can act:

    I hope the other charts are more clear and I will keep everyone abreast as to what is happening. There is a good chance we could be approaching a top, but patients is currently the best option. Logically speaking, we are in a bull market until we are not, and therefore, the odds favor the bulls. Nevertheless I am loving the critique and will try to keep things clear. Obviously when one creates the charts they seem clear in ones head (lol).


  • OllyVaradi

    Top drawer stuff Volar! Massive appreciation for taking the time to share your wealth of experience and indicators.

  • Southern


    I really appreciate the zero video. It is helping me a lot and I was happy to renew my subscription to it. Keep up the good… er… evil work!!

  • DarthTrader

    Dollar in rally mode as Euro is selling off. . . Silver and Gold giving it up a little bit as well.

    Don't know if this is a feint or the beginning of the real deal but Fridays extremes made this likely.

    Tougher to call true market changes as in recent years the market has moved further & further from the decisions of thousands of traders towards the decisions of a few policy makers. That renders many technical tools inert. That has taken out many potent traders of much renown because what they know to be true is now actually false. And the amateurs have been ground up by trading machinery that targets them especially.

    All of this says to me that it would be wise to focus on a few areas and keeps your stops tight.

    Preserve your Capital

  • volar

    anytime. better here than BAC or WFC….

  • wrc1k

    What “bull market”, the bears have to worry about cows now (scroll to the bottom in the link):

    Bears never get a break . . . .

  • molecool

    Has anyone heard of Scott? He went MIA last week – getting worried about him…

  • molecool

    Especially with Bernanke at the helm…

  • tradem4alpha

    Maybe he is still on vacation on that island.

  • tradem4alpha

    I was also wondering where he disappeared.

  • amokta

    I think he was playing at the Master Golf – (Adam Scott)
    Will be back soon

  • amokta

    Ok, has the big silver bird beaked, or is there more upside – look like a correction in progress, but may be just a 'in-line' correction to s spike high but is still heading rapidly upwards

  • OllyVaradi

    Thought I might add (for fun):

    Monday – Chop….nominal high of between 30-60pts on Dow, possibly as high as 90pts. But close at -30 to -40pts
    Tuesday – Trend day down (we are overdue one of these) Close near/at lows
    Wednesday through Friday – Bull resurgence with Friday posting weekly high.

    I guess we'll see how that pans out. My gut tells me none of that is right but that's what the data tells me.

  • tradingmom

    Zero testing underside of green line from last week…will it hold? (9:55 eastern)

  • skynard

    Naz, Rut & Trans not confirming this move. Dollar tested the lows.

  • tradingmom

    Triangle on zero and es/SPY 5 min resolving now at 11:15 eastern.

  • tradingmom

    Zero didn't buy the price breakout to the upside of the triangle…looking for a downward move.

  • DarthTrader

    Silver Shorts seem to be a presence in the market today. (And perhaps dollar longs as well. )

    Limiting rallies when Gold and currencies say should rally and bringing volume on downside pushes.

    Lower Lows and Lower Highs over the last 4 hours.

    Evidence for the top being in is slowly accumulating.

    Astrological & Cyclical Turn dates over the weekend seem to be lined on Currencies . . . Dollar Gold Silver Euro

    Long way to go, no doubt . . . my bias/market call from last week has me anticipating.

    Either way this Silver (and others) is coiling for a powerful move looks to me.

  • OllyVaradi

    Every time the hourly Dow pops above it's upper Bollinger band, a big red candle follows…..hope it doesn't let me down.

  • OllyVaradi

    No downside yet today, trading must be starting when they get back off their lunches.

  • molecool

    Nope – he returned from that.

  • Joe_Jones

    or he got caught braking into the Aussie's central bank…

  • BobbyLow

    Not that it matters, but as of 12:00 and the last 30 Minutes, NYSE Volume has been Negative as Decliners are a little stronger than Advances. Back in the day, this market would have collapsed under it's own weight.

    But the “market” is holding up to flat – again. This has more than an eerie feel to it. But there I go with conventional thinking again.

  • DarthTrader

    Nobody seems to be interested in the Astrological side but I'll keep posting it for while

    Today the moon is Void of Course til 11 pm which says to me flat trading day with acceleration manana

  • amokta

    Looking momentarily good for Olly's downside, but still somewhat flattish – what are mkt internals saying, and more importantly, what is zero saying

  • volar

    I have never looked into that stuff, but I wonder how it aligns with my seasonality charts?

    I guess I just dont know how to really interpret astrology, but you can say that I am interested.

  • amokta

    Mye IRE (Bank of Ireland) puts doing ok, but do i hold longer?

  • DarthTrader

    I'll keep posting it but it like many technical tools has been rendered less effective via Fed direct intervention.

    Used to be a lot more fun when you had a good idea when the market would have a pivot. Nowadays you get the pivot within the allotted 3 day period of a particular aspect (day before, day of and day after) but it only lasts a couple of days. This weekend we had a Mercury Combust (mercury conjunct the sun) and a P-Index day (over 14 aspects in 1 day) Double whammy add to that all the charts in extremes time to nibble on reversal positions with stops set at the highs. But as I said the moon is Void of Course today . . . That tends to coincide with flat listless markets so tomorrow will be interesting seems to me

  • skynard

    Party over?

  • OllyVaradi

    Hmmm, looks like they've left the work experience lot running the show & pissed off early for lunch. Plan seems to be working so far….

    Anyone else is free to post too. Even if it's just to start a fight.

  • jigdaddy

    no one is at the party according to ZERO

  • OllyVaradi

    Mork calling Orson…..come in Orson……?

  • DarthTrader

    Silver selling has been coming in waves. This 10 minutes period should have over twice the volume of any other 10 min candle today (except one barely) but the bulls have awoken and pushing it back up . . . we'll see if there is another selling wave to follow

  • molecool

    Nobody is buying either… pretty bearish session thus far.

  • skynard

    SPX gap support @ 1320

  • molecool

    Stuff doesn't work – which is why I am not interested. They keep announcing those major celestial alignments and nothing ever happens. Pure mental masturbation.

    The only stuff that ever made any sense to me was Chris Carolan's spiral calendar. And that one basically only uses one celestial constant, which is the period of a moon cycle (29.53 days).

  • molecool

    I wouldn't put it past him.

  • skynard

    Mork to VIX, wake up!

  • OldChicago

    Waiting for the other shoes? Alcoa? This action is like earthworm, slowly inching along…

  • volar

    VIX is playing honey badger today…..

    actually i suggest VXV instead but either way, still playing honey badger

  • skynard

    Yes, just as I expected;-)

  • DarthTrader

    Silver – Key Reversal

    Yes Sir !

    Now down 1.66 from high

  • molecool

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

  • convictscott

    Im here. I didnt take the hammer long in euro, so as punishment took a week off. Have the shits with the tape at the moment, I got biased looking for a bucky reversal and missed the exact opposite.

    When in a bad trading mentality I didnt feel I had anything to add post wise.

  • Biowolf

    <link href=”/telusbeta/static/deg/css/wysiwyg-3933289048.css” media=”all” rel=”stylesheet” type=”text/css”>

    Nice improvement on the FX , mole, even a nerd like me can read it now.

    Apr 10, 2011 11:02:29 PM, wrote:

    molecool wrote, in response to Biowolf:

    I hope so too – still fiddling with the settings but I'm getting there :-)

    Link to comment:

    Biowolf wrote:

    What I hear is the the G7 support is more symbolic than anything else. Only the
    BOJ actually intervened. Plus, in the meantime some people have realized that
    the situation in Japan is more fucked than generally understood and the
    repatriation fear was overdone.Anyway, these are all theories. If your ZL works
    out we dont have to worry about shit like this.

    Zitat von Disqus :

    Options: Respond in the body to post a reply comment.

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