Discretionary Trading
Now Reading
Friday Lottery Ticket
176

Friday Lottery Ticket

by The MoleDecember 1, 2017

I probably should be easing up on my meds as I have started seeing short opportunities and you all know how that usually ends up. Except of course when Bitcoin once again goes stratospheric and then instantly crashes as it did on Wednesday literally an hour after I posted about that very scenario. Clairvoyance you wonder? I very much doubt it as I never win anything. But I have developed a pretty keen sense of human nature, which fortunately is a lot more reliable than the financial markets. When in doubt during a buying frenzy always bet on the woodshed.

2017-12-01_spoos

Now in my post I was also joking about equities not wanting BTC to steal its show. And that of course was followed by yesterday’s session which propelled almost vertically, to be then followed by instant profit taking. And could you blame them as they probably were looking at Bitcoin in comparison and thought to themselves ‘hell no – I won’t be the one holding the bag here’.

2017-12-01_SPX_VIX

Whether or not this is the top we can however all agree on the fact that each advance appears to be steepening and although that’s a lot of fun while it lasts it’s also usually the time when you start looking for exits. And clearly I’m not the only person thinking that as market makers are already beginning to price risk higher as evidenced by this SPX:VIX ratio.

2017-12-01_VIX

Here’s the VIX chart which shows us an expanding Bollinger and judging by the previous spikes we may just be on the way to a spike to ~14 – 16 this time. VIN/VIF is also pointing up strongly, which suggests near term option premiums are increasing relative to premiums a few weeks further out.

2017-12-01_UVOL_DVOL

UVOL/DVOL has been extremely compelling as DVOL is now starting to lead, even while equities were heading higher. Say WHAT? Yeah, that’s actually pretty rare, and especially with two consecutive sessions.

2017-12-01_spoos_volume_profile

The volume profile is looking like a mine field as we are in no-man’s land right now and the current spike higher is only supported by a tiny island. Should 2620 give way we may tumble all the way into 2600 and perhaps lower.

2017-12-01_spoos_lottery_ticket

So given all the above warning signs I am tempted to propose the unspeakable, which is a short position. But because I do like my sleep especially during the weekends I’m not going to deploy more than 1/3 of a % which I’m happy to blow on small chance of equities pulling a bitcoin (hehe).

2017-12-01_USDJPY_gold_LT

USD/JPY is strengthening again on a longer term basis and if the current advance can gain traction it may finally break out of the current whipsaw zone between 109 and 114. Which incidentally is pretty bearish for precious metals – silver is already plunging and I hope you’re not holding long in that sector.

evil_separator

It's not too late - learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don't waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Please login or subscribe here to see the remainder of this post.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • ZigZag

    I really admire Elon Musk. The people who invest in his companies? Not so much.

  • StockTalker

    Nice observation Mole!!

  • Mark Shinnick
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    lucky to have a dad whom played the Doors, Neil Young, Some Willie and Waylon and other musicians that grew on me as we traveled lonely Mexican desert roads in the day…

  • StockTalker

    Dow retested, time to roll

  • HD

    C=A 2634

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you are so lucky.
    all I got was the Beatles yellow submarine.

    https://www.mouseplanet.info/gallery/d/48356-2/NemoWalkthrough_Area6_060707_AVP.jpg

    maybe that explains my gold fetish?!

  • HD

    Swiflty ! EW. individual result may vary.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Copper weekly review. (for you miners fans)

    If you can’t grow it, you have to mine it.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fea881e6edea9e5f0ae3ba2d67bd175f24d465d52e71829cc868a8e8df9bb251.png

  • StockTalker

    Caught the whole enchilada there:)

  • HD

    1/2 off the /VX 12.30 from 11.20 $1100 per

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Ronebadger

    Copper, along with oil and lumber “usually” are indicative of a growing economy, as demand for this stuff goes along with growth…so, it’s an indicator of sorts…

  • HD

    was there news?

  • HD

    10 handle bounce, sellers should hit it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…same here…situation was ripe.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    smack!
    surprises to the downside, reminds me of 2009.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NQ&p=m5

  • ZigZag

    This will be interesting – Remember, all news-related drops this year have been bought back and then some by the end of the day. We’ll see if this continues.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you have a point. and it’s month begin. so much Drama, and on a Friday!?

  • Mark Shinnick

    First objective met.

  • StockTalker

    Need some follow through

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    unless a hedge fund buys up a billion dollars in a speculative front run. but yeah, that’s the traditional thinking.

    I’m just being cautious to a pullback to median move.

  • HD

    lock in another 5 points

  • StockTalker

    Not done, Flipping /NDK @ 22500.MAX pain today.

  • HD

    all out 13

  • HD

    last 1/2 off +10 all flat.

  • BobbyLow

    Right after 11:00 Gold shot up and Equities went down. Flynn pleading guilty came out early this morning. Tax bill was also in trouble last night and early this AM. Maybe the tax bill got into more of a quagmire at 11:00?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    is the Yen still connected to Gold?
    ..yep.

    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=h1

  • BobbyLow

    Yep it’s crazy GG.

  • Julie

    GE stopped out this a.m. 18.10 was my stop for a minor loss. GE could be consolidating. Mentioned yesterday was going to watch GLD for a bounce off it’s 233 ema which is occurring and would like a close above it’s 5 ema which as I type is occurring also. JULIE

  • HD

    what a hit!

  • Ronebadger

    Did I miss something 20-25 minutes ago?

  • StockTalker

    Bounce time, long

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yes. Tax-a-mania. Congress can’t get it’s act together. Drama galore.
    see BL comment below.

  • HD

    2602 is muey importante for the EW hacks

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    HYG, high yield.
    correct me if I’m wrong. that’s no DITHER!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p38184119905

  • ZigZag

    wow that is one helluva candle on /rty.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Gap zone there This behavior is anomaly. Normal boubce zones swing trading is punishable.

  • Ronebadger

    Ohh, I thought this was what 401k selling/distribution is like on Dec 1…duh…lol…

  • HD

    Who loves the fat finger!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..with latex!
    (GG ducks)

  • BobbyLow

    I still think it’s Tax Plan Trouble more than Flynn. Doesn’t make sense that it’s the Flynn news because that was out long before the market openned. But the markets don’t have to make any sense.

  • HD

    I would say buyers came in and defended that 2602 level

  • HD

    Not trying to stir the pot. The EW. this will be int iv. The wave started 1991 so… wait for it… 666 points. So far 52 point retrace.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • StockTalker

    That was fun! Going fishing now

  • ridingwaves

    someone new something yesterday, looks like more of a sector rotation, quick grab of new bulls money…

  • evilasevildoes

    Jerry Springer market!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I like how the women always fight over the creepy man.
    not that I watch such exploitative venues.

    VIX up, Gold up, QQQ’s leading down.

    LIFE IS GOOD!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/630cac0b1c248d9d7b3edee8add731e522857cd626c4561fb83454f87dee4e3b.png

  • Julie

    INTC This a.m. bounce off daily 34 ema and near a lower trend line and Ichi Cloud upper boundary Must have a bullish close above (1) resistance (2) Ichi Cloud baseline 21 appox 45.31. (3) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dc57db8e3f8d2362ed27e3b2a521caf65d729012806e7503b08edcfb871a3dee.png upper downtrend line Previous posts showing INTC monthly and weekly charts I indicated 47 may be the high for INTC JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I have different lines. currently support. (RSI 50)
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=INTC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89057390878

    lottery option short, gap close or bust.

  • StockTalker

    Nothing but sellers here bro

  • ridingwaves

    thought u were fishing, no catching without line in the water

  • BobbyLow

    McConnell just said they have the votes. Watch the markets snap back. Yippee! I’ll now get my 1% reduction. Another crock of shit used for lipstick on this pig. LMAO

  • HD

    reload /VX 12.3

  • Julie

    GG Watching for a gap fill too. It is a choppy pullback. GLD this a.m bouncing off it’s 233 ema I thought it would. A bullish close above daily 5 ema I may buy a little. Do not want to hold over the weekend so will follow on Monday if the above criteria is met (5 ema) Like you say GG you can always buy a minor pullback on an intraday chart such as the 10 min
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    like I said, Drama.

    Remember Fiscal Cliff, Fiscal Cliff! or BREXIT?

    https://chasingtheturtle.files.wordpress.com/2012/11/chicken-little.jpg

  • HD

    C=A 2634, again

  • StockTalker

    Boat ready to go, outa here

  • BobbyLow

    Reports by non partisan agencies say that this bill will only add a Trillion Dollars to the deficit. What’s a Trillion Dollars anyway? It’ll pay for itself. Ya right. Fucking snake oil salesmen. No Problem, don’t worry, be happy and enjoy this Christmas Present for many years to come.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I worry about the end game. A nuclear wrecking ball.
    for my children.

    saying: “Woe, woe to the great city, clothed in fine linen and purple and scarlet, adorned with gold and precious stones and pearls!

  • HD

    lock in 5

  • Julie

    GG The creepy man is in jail and is going to be extradited to MT from CA. Gallatin County MT prosecutor has filed charges. Stalking is a felony in the Big Sky. Montana State prison in Deer Lodge is a territorial prison No place to be ! My husband a Union Electrician and has worked at the prison.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    well, unless he’s in for Life.
    I would get a dog, and move to Mexico. just in case.
    😉

    http://images.rottentomatoes.com/images/news/au800newst10-09.jpg

  • HD

    payday. the easy part of the wave is over IMO. Have a great weekend all. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77eb4be88812f83c643bb2a88e3ec6431ca8060b5ae0f216f3c55949fd676c66.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, that has been the typical scenario. At some point, of course, it won’t be the case.

  • ridingwaves

    doom is invading ES…..

  • Julie

    GG GG Possible retest of mid November low Usually high volume lows and high volume highs are retested. GE watching for the retest and if on lower volume possibly a bullish bounce
    JULIE

  • Julie
  • BobbyLow

    It’s not doom RW. It’s choosing not to live in an alternate reality while understanding that we are powerless to do anything about it. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what? no Fibonacci love?
    LOL.

  • ridingwaves

    this is all due to the nitwits in San Francisco whom acquitted a scum mexican illegal alien of murder ;ast night, I tell ya….No more nitwits in juries, if you don’t pay taxes, you have no say in judicial hearings….Weak minded idiots living off the govt. have no place in a courtroom…..California liberals are sheeple…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Julie

    RW My brother paid off a car loan then carried just liability insurance. An illegal with no drivers license or insurance for that matter ran into him totaling his car. A slap on the wrist was all he was given. Just sick !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    its extremely sick and these whack jobs whom believe in Sanctuary cities should leave and live in Mexico or where-ever. If it was my daughter this scum would have been in the dirt already. Shooting a gun in a public place is all the intent you need for murder. That is what happened…Bullets fly and hit people. Any dumb shit including an illegal one know that. 5X deported to boot. The innocent girl had her life in front of her. Liberals in California are walking a dangerous path, there are many very upset with this. I hope trump figures out a way to take every dime away from this state….looney tunes in charge

  • BobbyLow

    I agree that the far left is looney. I also think the far right is looney too.
    And OBTW, I hope Trump gets impeached and sooner rather than later.

  • BobbyLow

    Anybody want to bet that the market is green before COB? :)

  • Julie

    RW Oregon is the same way as Portland is a sanctuary city too. Two years year ago in MT an illegal killed a family who pulled over to help the illegal whose car had broken down. He fled in their car and was apprehended in Wyoming. He was extradited to MT and was convicted of 3 counts of murder and received the death sentence. Since the death penalty was reinstituted I believe MT has only executed once .There was overwhelming public outcry and am sure he will be pushing daisies
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, the simple science of this being that 95% of the population fails to concern itself with the destructive intentions of the 5% psychotics/narcissists . That 5% are the skilled predators able to distract their victims, and they very-intentionally dominate/control the media to do it.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Noooooo.

    but if it’s Zero’s VWAP. game over man. VWAP always wins.

  • BobbyLow

    Whose science says that? Or is this something straight out of Brietfart? :)

  • Julie

    BL Trump can only be impeached for crimes and infractions after taking the Oath of Office. Anything before must wait upon him leaving office
    JULIE

  • BobbyLow

    How about obstruction of justice? But like I said, I can only hope.

  • Julie

    GG I follow VWAP also. An excellent tool in the tool bag
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Read Robert Hare to start. Its all well defined and becoming practically applied….but few of us can accept it; hence is the nature of why it persists.

  • Julie

    If it occurs after him taking the Oath of Office that would be grounds for impeachment. Not sure how a Republican controlled Congress would vote if an impeachable offense.
    JULIE

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    just what I need, another tool.

    Don’t think my boss would like it.

    https://i.ytimg.com/vi/wMDKJtI4OjE/hqdefault.jpg

  • ridingwaves

    there is a middle, somewhere…not in this state…

  • BobbyLow

    I consider myself to be in the 95% yet I’m truly concerned about President Trump whom I believe to be a walking definition of a Narcisist. LOL

  • Julie

    GG A screwdriver ; pliers and a hammer is all I or any girl needs. LOL !

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you sure you are blonde?

    any way, some good stuff about stalking and oaths here!

    In regards to protecting oneself from “abusive” public servants: check out the [your] State laws on “stalking” and “exploitation” as well as “neglect to protect” provisions in State law [upholding and enforcing the law by parties under Oath of Office] as well as Title 18 USC §1621 concerning the “neglect to protect” by persons under Oath, and Title 42 USC § 1986, wherein a person having “knowledge of the law”, “the power to stop a wrong” and the “duty to prevent a wrong from being done” is liable for any failure to act. Should they fail to prevent a wrong, having knowledge of the law, the power to prevent, and the legal or moral duty to prevent the wrong, which causes deprivations of your religious and/or civil rights or Liberties, suit can be brought for violations.

    http://freedom-school.com/acceptance/

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, me too. The 95% are easily able to see those 5% traits operating as a “human condition” within ourselves and correctly protect against those traits. The 5% have no such inhibitions.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hey now, I know it’s a slow day.
    this thread is leaning political!!

    https://www.psychologicalscience.org/news/were-only-human/the-10-most-narcissistic-u-s-presidents.html

  • Mark Shinnick

    Don’t get caught in the trap of distraction; that is exactly the SUPER SKILL of this 5%. Look ONLY at hard results….NEVER what anyone says.

  • BobbyLow

    Neither do I. But it might be in their best interest for them to impeach because once Trump and Bannon get done with the Republican Party it might “go the way of the buffalo”. :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • BobbyLow

    I agree with you there. Trump is a master of distraction.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, this core problem is actually a-political. Politics just happens to be the power point where the 5% minority can then control the 95%. The core issue relates very well to markets and marketing the majority tends to get it all wrong.

  • Mark Shinnick

    As usual, the real trap is becoming fixated on one market position.

  • ZigZag

    So this was just a big-boy game. Start a panic, pull the bids, buy at the lows and sell at the end of the day to the 401k bag holders. Easy peasy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Month End/Begin. not all the time, but enough for me to create a trading rule around it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Could be. It finally fulfilled my expected volatility pop to setup the next typical upward grind and vol crush. However, that game must obviously be expected to come to a unexpected end.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Here’s a thought. Beware of a new rule arising out of any recency bias, thus preventing a sound position within a unsound/corrupted market environment.

  • BobbyLow

    I understand deception and I understand lying but when his narcissitic, sociopathic behavior is in my face everyday (not by what the media says he said but what I see him say with my very own eyes and hear him say with my very own ears, it’s extremely difficult to not be fixated on my “market” position. He says something really stupid and or absolutely wrong and all of a sudden it’s like it never happened. This is either an alternate reality or I’ve become fucking crazy.

    Sometimes I try to turn this fiasco off but watching this guy in action is like someone driving and coming upon a tragic and terrible accident on the highway not wanting to see it but unable to turn their head away from it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Holy cow…does this USC apply to all state civil service as well??

  • ridingwaves

    he is what he has always been, big headed and a know it all, throw in a little girl with twitter tantrums to boot…but the alternative was much worse…that just tells you how bad us folks have it….

  • Mark Shinnick

    The H&S sit remain in-play. Still no idea how its going to resolve.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Facinating, truly. Can you describe how are you perceiving hate?

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3965a65237be1d434ecbfcbf4bf2ab7ae9d4107f43253fed4ee84de7de40c8e8.jpg

    Look at the attached graph and what do you see ?

    It is NDX from 1985 on a logarithmic scale.

    Last half of the 1990s was an obvious bubble, a parabolic curve on a logarithmic chart is obviously a bubble.

    That index spent the following years, until 2009, to work out the bubble. 2009 was the buying opportunity of your entire lifespan.

    It spent some time, 2015/16, to work against its 2000 top, but now it is back to its good old trendline, working its way slowly upwards.

    No bubbles to be seen, just a grind higher …

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Look at the attached graph and what do you see ?
    It is NDX from 1985 on a logarithmic scale.
    Last half of the 1990s was an obvious bubble, a parabolic curve on a logarithmic chart is obviously a bubble.
    That index spent the following years, until 2009, to work out the bubble. 2009 was the buying opportunity of your entire lifespan.
    It spent some time, 2015/16, to work against its 2000 top, but now it is back to its good old trendline, working its way slowly upwards.
    No bubbles to be seen, just a grind higher … https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aaea1c9b3ce7cc7edf811fc734c45ba24355af9db7b219f095b20b84d1d70ea0.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Log charts?
    no one *ever* mentioned log charts!!!
    WTF!

    https://cdn.drawception.com/images/panels/2016/8-22/RnwgawqS5f-12.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    the snowflakes have been triggered.
    the polarization and tension is at historic all time levels in the US community.

  • BobbyLow

    It seems like I’ve always voted for “the lessor of two evils” whether it was a Republican or a Democrat. I guess the only thing you and I can do at this point is agree to disagree on who the worst evil was in this past election. I believe Trump was the worse choice and that we’ve not seen the worst of him yet. Believe it or not, I hope I’m wrong.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    The problem is that gamblers like any addicts, wants to relive their first real high. The crash of 2008.
    Their disappointment is that they will not relive their first high, ever.
    They will keep looking for it until they die though …

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Truly, I never inhaled.

    it took me a few years, but thoughts of Zimbabwe became a possibility. so following the tape is best I can do for now.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Zimbabwe, that was interesting, please elaborate

  • Mark Shinnick

    …I ask because the Hate Card is exactly what’s been played within this environment. It truly works to cause decent persons to stop and question themselves… thus working beautifully as a distraction mechanism.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    My analysis may be all wet, so go gentle guys.

    In 2013, Zero reviewed Zimbabwe history in 2005-07

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-25/guest-post-tale-two-charts-are-we-2007-america-or-2006-zimbabwe

    Whether or not the Zero article is correct. I have always had a realization that an index number is just that. A NUMBER.

    The Naz at 5000, or 50000. so f*cking what?? it’s just a number. The bottom line, is that value good for you? does it make you feel rich? can you retire on it? are prices of physical things going up around you? No?
    at this point, it’s all fuzzy ideas with subjective viewpoints.
    So i’ll stop.

  • ridingwaves

    actually first post was just pointed at the state l live in and the politics here, both sides are corrupt and bought but I have seen what democrats have done to California. So I think any political leaning could be geographical in nature as every place, state is different. I have no idea what side would better represent you in your town. Our choices last year were “the career corrupted politician who has done little for Americans vs. the career corrupt businessman whom acts like a teenager breaking up on twitter”

    you know my stance, both sides are snakes tied to the same body…

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Slope of hope Tim knight
    John Hussman
    Zerohedge
    are the ultimate addicts of 2008, God bless them.

  • ridingwaves

    much of it media generated….its definitely taken over our lives…so much bandwidth going thru your brain now, 50MGs a day of data….some folks are not built for this model…..its by design…wait until AI hits next leg up….were toast..

  • ridingwaves

    you do have to give a big applause for this bull run to the Bernanke Put….that dip in 09 could have easily headed lower….

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good to see you again. I saw and appreciated your graph and the other point you were making.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    hey, love all you guys
    sending peace and luv.

    https://www.evangelicalendtimemachine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/heart-sunshine1.jpg

    except Nyquil, he gets under my skin sometimes.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Dennis Gartman, can’t forget him, can we?

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    No, it could not have, it was the ultimate panic bottom.
    Remember, broad indexes are not numbers, they are actually the amalgam of economic development.
    And in the free world economies grow over time and the companies values and thereby the stock indexes grow with them.

  • ridingwaves

    I’m familiar with free market economies, if no step in by the CB, rescuing fannie-fred-AIG + that dip goes much lower…don’t fool yourself…free market economies died in 09….the Bernanke put is why NDX is here…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    agreed RW.
    Lehman was taken into the backroom..and

  • Julie
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    you’re playing with sub $3 stocks? RW has been a bad influence!

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    My opinion is that excessive market volatility died in 2009.
    The one which is every traders wet dream.
    Todays market action is intraday run by computers, the ones you try to be smarter than.
    Those computers dont have human reactions, when they hear about Mike Flynn or Kim Jong Un they have a kneejerk reaction in anticipation of human reaction, and then they go back to analyzing the numbers.
    Far before you see the human blogs responding with the “end of world comments” they are back to their daily grind.

  • ridingwaves

    yet, you can’t seem to tie volatility was squashed by Global CBankers, GOVT. and Treasury process’s that were put in place that had never happened in the history of finance?

  • BobbyLow

    I agree with you on information overload RW. With almost instaneous news it’s a constant barrage. I’m probably one of the oldest people here so I’ll give you an example of what I remember as a kid growing up in the 50’s. We had a local newspaper that I delivered on my bicycle everyday. We had about a 13 Inch TV that had 3 channels. We could only count on one channel to come in clear most of the time. The TV would go to a fixed object at 11 PM as all programing was over by that time. The National News was only 15 Minutes long in 1956 with “The Huntley Brinkley Report”. This news show later expanded to 30 Minutes in 1963.

    So in the 50’s we had one thin local newspaper and 15 Minutes of National News every evening Monday through Friday. Perhaps ignorance was really bliss back in those days. :)

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    What I see is low inflation and low long term interest rates.
    If that is the achievement of central bankers, then all love to them.
    I think it is the product of free markets and the highly proficient population of the free western world in competition with emerging markets (which may not be so free, but may soon be)

  • Julie

    GG I am just following INFI and have no position. The Bio Sector too volatile for me. I prefer stocks trading over 10 bucks as does the institutions which are the heavy hitters and major players.
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    When I was trading size in S&P contracts in the 80’s became the more widespread appearance of the algos and bots. Loss of the pits supports your argument, but the algos are ultimatly human engineered for only foreseeable events. In every field where automation has been attempted there has tenaciously remained unforeseen failures. Its why human pilots remain ultimatly in charge of aircraft. The markets have always been the crucible of the unforeseeable and unexpected.

  • BobbyLow

    Agreed and let’s not forget Alan Greenspan who got the ball rolling by a continuous lowering of interest rates which helped get the housing boom started. A lot of spec and house flipping eventually put housing prices out of reach for lower income families. That is until the banks decided that there was no risk in loaning money on a home to people who couldn’t pay it back. This is because housing prices would continue to rise forever and they would make a lot of money and never lose. . .

  • BobbyLow

    Only a few minutes left and only around 7 points left to green on the SPX so it’s close. LOL

    I’ve been Long Oil and Short Gold and will continue to hold. I got a little concerned when gold took off at 11:00 AM but it’s only up about 6 points right now so “What me worry”? :)

    http://photobucket.com/gallery/user/kgt69_69/media/cGF0aDovQWxmcmVkLTMuZ2lm/?searchTerm=alfred%20e%20newman&page=1

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    I appreciate the comments Mark,but the difference in computing power, investment and artificient intelligence is a lot since the 80s

  • steve J

    Depends where you start the axis. You are just showing best fit regression on the time period of 30 years. The log chart is better taken out to the 1960s. Even clearer is the Dow back to the 1920s. Buying opportunity of a lifetime was late 70s.
    If you go from 1990 for example then we are very bubbly. 100 year log changes the pic drastically

  • Mark Shinnick

    One important perception-skewing trick about any similar stock index; all the stocks are routinely switched-around suiting the most-local conditions favoring those stocks in their own times.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer
  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    NDX dont exist in the time scales you request

  • Mark Shinnick

    You have the confused/crazy-making effect, then nailed. Exactly as with market losses without understanding why…. pull back, analyze, dissect, and simplify. All the bullshit designed to be fucking with our minds gets placed into correct perspective with the right model of understanding. EVERYTHING here applies to trading !!

  • steve J
  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Yes, that is confirmable history…. And how do you invest in 2017 based on that ???

  • steve J

    more importantly, quarterly chart with 40MA seems to nail the long term turns.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64ced70b96a7d051173e9303abb1fe263ae063427b96395123978bd3a7aece71.jpg

    This is Dow to 1920 on a log. Its possible we break up here into new trajectory and head for Dow 50,000, or we become weaker and hang around above 16,000 similar to 1960-1980.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    WELL, I suppose Captain Mole fell asleep in his bunk.
    poor lad.

    Exciting Day.
    High Yield. Blame the Wookie if you have too.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6de4471cdb4ea367ab7915ce5bcde5661b25f5da84822d9991abe9bd20bf5ce.png

    Cheers!

    http://img.mensjournal.com/social/wookey-jack-f55078f6-9b44-4bbc-a3e5-32fbfaa2796e.jpg

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    mine was by excel, logarithmic

  • ridingwaves

    I think your misinterpreting things here…the NDX outcome that you post about only came about because radical changes never seen by anyone on this board or JPM’s, GS etc. took place….

    No one is trading anything here based on that…but fact are like concrete, they last…

    the CB’s have seen low inflation (your comment above)for years but that in itself is a misnomer as they toss out and change inflationary readings with the stroke of a pen…if markets were free, you would see a lot less banks around….they would have been dead in 09…..wiped out….

  • BobbyLow

    I think I understand what you mean. It’s kind of “out there”, but if we were back in my wild and crazy days we might have been able to disect this topic a lot better if we fired up a bone and then figured it all out.

    Have a great weekend Mark. :)

  • ridingwaves

    the problem in any long term index is all the changes to symbols within the index that would have led indexes to different places. Enron used to be a sp500….just saying..indexes are curved via the symbols they drop and add..

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    You have homework. Get your trading log setup.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…that’s kind of like leaving town…a sort of vacation. :) His timing of downturn this way remains remarkable.

  • steve J

    agreed, and as its the Dow its price weighted. I also agree with the long term buy and hold view. These charts wont help with day trading, or even weekly. But do show how long a trajectory can persevere. We are now right at the upper limit of a 3 decades trajectory. Got some wiggle room, but a break up now will be very obvious. (see 1995 – 1999). Maybe it drops before that happens.
    Crazy projection, but 20 years from now Dow will most likely be targeting 100,000. Issue is it could drop as low as 9,000 in next decade. So I won’t buy and hold from here thanks..

  • BobbyLow

    Carefully.

    If someone began “investing” in the markets in 2009 or 2010 they might have a different view then say someone like me who began trading as the tech bubble began in 1998. Back then I thought the NDX would go to the moon and almost anything tech was a winner. Trading/Investing was easy and everyday and every week my accounts went crazily upward. After the bubble burst, I held on for too long and a lot of what I had gained went up in smoke. It’s easy to look backward and be able to see what would have happened that the Q’s that I sold in the low 30’s sometime around 2002 are now worth $156.00. But it’s also unrealistic to believe that as a person is getting older and sees their nest egg going up in smoke could easily hold on to a belief that the market will come back if I could only be patient and hold on for a few more years.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …nothing some high focus ocean surf play can’t cleanse from the mind. :)

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Are you drunk, it seems so ?

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    I think you did inhale …

  • Mark Shinnick

    I think he’s besieged from all sides from most within California.. but just wants to help. Even if he were drunk I’d pay attention…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I actually was very busy today hunting down a coding bug. Plus I had to spend a bit of time at the gym for some stress relief. Quite honestly I am happy that the holidays are near as I’m BEAT! This was a tough year!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What – NO KUDOS at all for calling the plunge lower today? I mean I’m not in it for the creds but a bit of love would help sometimes you spoiled brats!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Or perhaps HE CALLED IT IN TODAY’S POST???!!! Is anyone actually reading those? Otherwise I may just post images of cats moving forward.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I’m working tomorrow.
    so throwing in a GE chart for FREE!

    $16+ would be a good place for a trading ‘try’.
    Hell, just wait till the red arrow. LOL.

    -GG

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cadc04f9b15ac50b0c46854e3d973393e14afe64a1124b04534c4a8834792a5.png

    Helluva Dagger. you’ve been warned!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    GG GE Weekly chart 5 yrs. Down to a support from 2013. RSI at22.90. CCI (20) went below -200 where a decline can end and the parabola is vertical which usually implies a bottom not far off GG Have A Great Weekend and I have a journal now set up Thaks GG JULIE
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5d556c63774a2685bf3e2d7511630e085c2c636abfc817491bc600010150dee.png

  • Julie

    Chief Thanks Great Call Have A Great Weekend and Recharge
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m just a prejudiced guy biased to look for life’s odd patterns. Your frigging damm-near everyday being right is sort of unremarkable, get your rest, everyone loves you.

  • ridingwaves

    No, but I definitely have the edge on your lack of how Finance works skills….I have a Russian neighbor and you remind of him, doesn’t clean up the street, rarely says hi but damn if they are not always right…..even though they are not….Please take your free market economy lecture to a board that has no idea of what that is, were not sheeple here

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    I can see why you have russian neighbours that doesnt clean the streets, they like vodka too …

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It’s tough being me but someone’s gotta do it.