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Full Steam Ahead
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Full Steam Ahead

by The MoleSeptember 18, 2017

Trading volume in the S&P 500 has finally been on the increase after what amounted to a pretty sleepy August. However as always when looking under the hood I am seeing a few disconnects that are worth noting. For one effective participation in the E-Mini as shown on our Zero indicator remains minimal, suggesting that the ratio of executed shares vs. the number of transactions may be high.

Now before you read on below make sure you catch my Sunday post for an update on last week’s long/short stock portfolio and of course our new long/short victims for week # 38. Enjoy!

2017-09-18_spoos

Here’s the E-Mini in all its effervescent glory. Things are looking bullish as heck on the surface of things and don’t get me wrong, I’m not trying to over complicate matters. When in doubt always follow price, especially when it manages to overcome two weekly NLBLs in one big swoop.

2017-09-18_UVOL_DVOL

What irks me quite a bit however is this: UVOL/DVOL with the latter outrunning the former for most of the past two sessions with Wednesday being a coin toss. I don’t have a well formed explanation for this but obviously it’s not what you want to see if you’re holding long equities. If this phenomenon continues this week then we may need to consider contrarian entries. But be assured that nothing bearish happens until price actually gives us a reason.

Of course a significant aspect of this equity rally is directly related to Dollar weakness. Nobody wants to hold the greenback right now as it continues to dance on the edge of the abyss. A slide through the 90 mark would most likely produce a significant number of stops to be run. So let’s take a look at some of the major pairs to gain a more in-depth perspective:

2017-09-18_USDJPY

The Yen has weakened over the past week which has given the USD/JPY a very nice boost, pushing it above its 100-day SMA. Maybe I should be living in Japan instead of Spain? The 100-week SMA is now up for grabs plus there are a few lingering NLBLs – all of which would require a push > the 112 mark. I have my doubts to be honest and we’ll have to see what this week brings. This advance higher was fairly strong and could be running out of juice when it matters the most.

2017-09-18_GBPUSD

Cable is on a rampage right now and I’m sure Jean-Claude Juncker and his pals in Brussels are hating every single tick of it. I’m rooting for our British friends of course and hope that it at least can maintain and hold the 100-week SMA. Of course this means a drag on the Dollar.

2017-09-18_EURUSD_update

We are still long the EUR/USD and I have not moved my stop since I pushed it to break/even. This turns out to be a pretty good EUR hedge for me and at this point it’s free.

2017-09-18_USDCAD_update

And we are also long the USD/CAD – surprisingly so as I thought it would have been taken to the woodshed by now. No cause for celebration however as this one could still turn into a loss. Of course with the Dollar as the base currency this offers a bit of hope for the greenback. I would rather see weakness in the EUR or Yen however, which command the vast majority of Forex trading volume.

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About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    not one comment?, bunch of slackers!!

    It’s good to be living in the land of the dead.
    All I can say is thank the maker for the Laparoscopic Appendectomy procedure.
    Otherwise, I would not be here.

    We caught it early, surgeon said it would have popped in another day or two. So I avoided all the red zone E.R. drama, and walked in like-a-boss.
    Good thing I signed up for Mole’s new HMO plan, it lets you park in the Blue Zone.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d26485e02bea3263d45b9ad060166573ab0e267e572307d5e6a5070311adc8f.png
    yet one more reason to go to cash over the weekends, Ha!
    -GG

  • Wave_surfer

    I am glad you got it taken care of when you were still able to walk! And I am glad you found your assigned parking space!
    More GG for all of us!

  • StockTalker

    Massive div on crude oil here, went short. Thought my /NQ short would be taken out. Skin still in the game.

  • ridingwaves

    Get well Gerb,

    I’m looking at going long on your first name here around 1310…..retest pf breakout almost done…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    SPY may be flying higher, but QQQ’s are buying it.
    I’ve never seen such dedication to a moving average before.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1ec607118de947d458c5dfccd59c87c9d445ccb7f2570b745687a3e75034a64.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I wish you good hunting.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • ridingwaves

    so go short chip-network symbols looks to be the trade per Mole Sunday post…what the heck, you would think Mole is on some beach with his boss staring at the blue seas on Sunday….

  • OJuice

    Its testing the area Mole mentioned for a buy last week. Coincides with the NLBL on the daily I believe, the 100 MA on the hourly, as well as the breakout level from last week.

  • ridingwaves

    just a smidgen more…..the big boys took out all new gold bulls whom hopped aboard with breakout and the pre-fed down move is now in play…

  • StockTalker

    Filled the gap

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Are you still trying to short Nasdaq?
    The trades you are posting must have taken massive losses over the last couple of weeks.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ding ding.
    this one’s for Julie.

    SLV intraday. something you can sink your teeth into
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6bb27b35eedffcfffb28d28c98f9e0437afd391cd857be7531eedca26b63a984.png

  • Yoda

    We are in the final hurrah stage. It’s been ages since Retail has been so bullish.
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey/sent_results
    As far as I am concerned, I’ll go with the old saying:
    Sell Rosh, Buy Yom

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    +3

  • StockTalker

    Keep buying:)

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Well OK, and you keep loosing

  • JackSparow

    Looks like ES caught upward trajectory..next stop ..2550?
    Nyhammer, your Nasdaq longs seem to be following – GL

    CL still confused.. a test of 52 would help https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bc7d029fa9cd2ade962b20c2f6c1492b0700fcad9590b064fd8ddc7232732075.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d3d51b07089ff076b52051b8b02aa6304a177fad282d4d5b2cf1241e4251eba.png

  • JackSparow

    Get Well soon GG
    I had one of those about 10 years ago.. the doc on duty in ER said no time time for laparoscopy, have to do it the old fashion way or risk a rapture.. took me 3 weeks to recover..

  • BobbyLow

    Glad to see that all is well GG. 🙂

  • Yoda

    Assuming that GC is in a bull LT trend, I would be buying it if price falls below 1300, preferably just below 1290. Between 1287 -1292 is roughly the monthly acceleration line test on GC (for those who remember Fearless he used that term a long-time ago). If price falls below that goldbugs will be in a world of pain for a while.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8cd342f90c21ac440eeb106f2a929e09fce23faab61a7017c2dbaa92aec00314.png

  • StockTalker

    Added to my short, GLT ya’ll

  • HD

    I see you did a post about bitcoin on Friday. Here was my EW work FWIW $GBTC up over 30% in 2 days
    https://twitter.com/hdivot618/status/908692960132218881

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    on the weekly I agree.
    On the daily? it may just hold here at 1320!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p33934809850

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like we might have a little “Alfred E. Newman” “What me worry?” going on as far as Gold is concerned. I held a 3X UGLD long Gold position over the weekend and got a little spanking this morning so I added a short offset in 3X DGLD short Gold position shortly after the open and wound up with a 2:1 Bear Spread using 3X Stock.

    I also scalped +.64R on a short /MGC Gold Futures trade today. I probably left some on the table but a scalp is a scalp. BTW, I’m glad I added Micro Gold Futures to my toolbox to help even out the playing field.

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Crazy coot. You got lucky. (one foot on the brake, one on the gas, hard on equipment)
    😉
    Better lucky than good!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10X3zJpMDMo

  • Yoda
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sensational as that is….how can we trust an article from a company that profits from click-bait?
    https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/ibankcoin#/entity

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, I see the decision point here, but the $ scene still seems too supportive. I remain either short miners or exited.

  • Mark Shinnick

    What were those symptoms?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    they vary.
    http://www.webmd.com/digestive-disorders/digestive-diseases-appendicitis#1

    for me it was dull pain, lower right abdomen. like someone punched me in the gut.

  • Yoda

    Interesting article that you won’t see in the MSM about the take-over of the WH by the Deep State Generals.
    http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/09/trumps-insurgency.html#more

  • Julie

    GG Glad that you are OK !
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…they vary….that’s what’s soo cool you acted….might be your other practiced trigger-pulling skills 😉

  • StockTalker

    Welcome to a W3, should be festive.

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    Sold my 2200 TQQQ at 113,79

  • Øyvind Nyhammer

    profit 16.200, this reminded me too much about early June so i will sit back a bit

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – sorry for my absence but I’ve been busier than a one-legged mole in a gopher kicking contest.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    It seems the DVOL divergence I mentioned today was the harbinger of today’s downside.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d3378fe17858a12a89261e8c042fb2499f3a27beb9fe52f15beee55dd73fba65.png

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Don’t you dare park in my spot!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    See, that’s why I had mine removed when I was 1 year old. That plus a bunch of other organs which seemed redundant. I mean why carry around two kidneys when one does the job, right?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey guys – so what’s your POV on the weekly stock portfolio? Is anyone here interested in that? Thus far I have seen very little pertinent commentary.

  • StockTalker

    You were so determined, lol

  • Darkthirty

    Mine blew out, peritonitis, colon resection, 4 weeks in the hospital. Should have caught it, but I’m a stupid hardass

  • Mark Shinnick

    Very unexpected news.

  • OJuice

    Personally, I’m focused exclusively on futures. /GC, /CL, /ES, /NG, /HG. I enjoy reading the posts though.

  • Brishort

    Hello, Mole. I think the approach is stellar on the concepts and principles. I especially appreciate your recaps on indexes. Very Very useful, I actually have the chart for all the weeks printed next to me! However, like OJuice, exclusively focusing my investing on Futures and FX, large, very very liquid items that are the most likely to be conducive of an edge using TA.

  • HD

    I took the $VZ trade, still in. +4% how is that doing compared to the entire portfolio?

  • Mary

    Very interested if results continue to show an edge. I’ll be watching closely.

  • ridingwaves

    interesting -been a long time since outside of bb on your chart, easily could run pf spot or just shy…
    interested in buying it if it dips to your bb at 6.86 and holds over 70 on chande trend meter
    here
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6660bdf55fb26147de3e60324049af082b8dd784321d828661f0bc5586f4de8e.png

  • Julie

    GG Glad you recognized that something was wrong and you acted upon it. Get well soon !
    JULIE

  • ridingwaves

    I like em….

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..a honed sense from option trading back in the day. And some beloved prayers.
    😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “next thousand trades”.
    Thanks for sharing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    We’ll know by the end of the week 😉

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    1310.
    so much for that theory!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Nasty!! I don’t like hospitals but I usually am at the doc at the first sign of trouble. And I don’t even trust the medical industry :-/

  • Darkthirty

    I hear ya! I do most of my own sutures due to the cost.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I had this happen a few years ago. Felt sick and by the time my taxi to the hospital arrived I was too sick to get out of the cab. Very painful too!

    Glad you ok, you are one tough hombre! Take it easy on the recovery

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    That’s something you wouldn’t hear the poorest person in the 3rd world say.

    Just astonishing for citizens in the richest country in the history of the world to be saying that!

  • ridingwaves

    getting bought near breakout level, buyers are stepping in 1300-1310 sp far.
    big test for bullish trend coming up this week….close below 1300 is not good as it takes you back too old channel, thinking a new channel trying to be built above 1310 is possible….
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b5d080dd8862890fdb53070b4c309e8a3fbec90efc2d7b050ab168fdbed68e7.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    :/

  • http://www.captainboom.com/ captainboom

    I like it. Interested to see how it shakes out with more data.