Now Reading
Futures Risk Calculator
74

Futures Risk Calculator

by The MoleSeptember 1, 2013

A few days ago I started to look around for a good risk calculator for the futures market to use as a template for you CrazyIvan subs playing the ZB futures. Much to my surprise I found absolutely nothing worth a cent. Sure, as expected I ran into the usual bucketshop type lures preying on trading noobs and promising some silly Excel sheet in exchange for signing up for their services (with a constant flow of spam almost guaranteed). In the end I didn’t come across one decent online risk calculator that covered more than some basic calculations that most of us can do in our heads.

So as so often I had to roll up my sleeves and write my own. Scott had mentioned to me that the basic calculation was pretty trivial but as I dug into it deeper I realized that it’s actually a pretty complex task, especially if you want to support other account currencies. In the end it took me most of the weekend to get it to the point where I would actually use it myself. Lo and behold below the fruits of my work – feel free to kick the tires a bit and if you’re missing a favorite contract please let me know and I’ll add it. And if you find anything buggy with it I want to know as well of course. Have fun!

[pageview url=”http://evilspeculator.com/futuresRcalc/” height=”900px” border=”no’]

 

It’s not too late – learn how to consistently bank coin without news, drama, and all the misinformation. If you are interested in becoming a subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. The Zero indicator service also offers access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Schwerepunkt

    No link to calculator.

    404 Not FoundThe resource requested could not be found on this server!Powered By LiteSpeed Web Server
    LiteSpeed Technologies is not responsible for administration and contents of this web site!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I just fixed it – please try again.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Working now. :)

  • convictscott

    Impressive shit mate

  • Skynard

    Damn, there’s your gappage Mole. Just as you thought! Nice work, closed my positions EOD Fri, only to re-short tonight:)

  • Th3_Acist

    Mole doing work per usual.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    borderline moderation, but I’ll turn the other (ahem) cheek.
    😉

  • Skynard

    God area of resistance right about here on the /ES:) 1640 hourly SL.

  • Skynard

    Especially glad to get out of /NG, re-shorted 68.

  • Skynard

    /NG hourly

  • Spalding

    Nice work.

  • SS_JJ

    much thanks. very cool tool indeed.

  • Skynard

    Now short /NQ, stop above the 25 daily. Yes, showing div.

  • mrmik3

    Awesome mole!!

  • DollarChaser

    check out gold testing the 25hour and 25week sma. hoping to see some action here…

  • Skynard

    Next 30 min should be fun.

  • Skynard

    Dollar catching bid.

  • Skynard

    Beyond 47 and we are going higher, think the bulls are out of bullets. Tagged the upper BB hourly. Short day, believe market closes at 1200 hrs.

  • newbfxtrader

    relief rally. Could take it until the day of the vote.

  • newbfxtrader

    Hammer candle at bottom. Maybe a turn in trend. Lets see if it can break that trendline.

  • newbfxtrader

    100 resistance close by. Interesting breakout…

  • Skynard

    Could be

  • newbfxtrader

    When is the vote? Look for the weaklings today. Like eur/usd. That should become your preferred short. If it cant stay up today what will it do when the markets decline?

  • Skynard

    Lol, which one? AUD or congress?

  • newbfxtrader

    The war vote. Keep an eye on eur/usd. Or /DX I guess. Weakness apparent in the Euro.

  • Skynard

    Thought that they meet on the 9th.

  • Skynard

    Market going to tank, not to worried. Sucker rally:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How quickly they can vote to start another war. Anything else takes months or even years, especially if it’s in the interest of the people. But blowing up people usually gets rubber stamped – there’s ALWAYS a justification to jump into another war. Signs of a crumbling empire in its death throes.

  • newbfxtrader

    Military industrial complex at work. You know that. Doesnt matter who is in power.

  • Darkthirty

    1030 CST / Reopen @ 1700

  • Skynard

    Thanks!

  • Darkthirty

    Got an idea on ES? Been up all night again and all I see is HFT algos running

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Seriously – you guys should be taking the day off. If I didn’t have a full plate that’s what I would do…

  • BobbyLow

    Congrats to the Crazy Ivan 480 Filtered! :)

  • Darkthirty

    if I had a life other than work I’d consider your advice, but I do appreciate the input

  • Skynard

    EOD should be telling, if it can climb back above resistance (47-48) we may see higher prices. Holiday they can do this without much power. That is why I think when MM’s back tonight it moves lower. Bull trap. Dollar has been up all day and is still showing strength.

  • newbfxtrader

    Heh. Work on a bigger account and then use Crazy Ivan to get out of work….

  • Darkthirty

    12 GA under the chin would do it also !

  • Skynard

    Yep, nothing else seems to be working. What else can the government do to bolster the economy? The only problem with this one is it will backfire right in their face. They have no idea what they are dealing with. They need to start minding their own business, war solves everything.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    That’s the spirit.

  • convictscott

    This is the biggest trading news of the day. We have a long term uptrend with super-upward-mojo, which retested it’s high and failed to break down. We have 7 months of up, 3.5 months of down, and a confirmed (closed above the breakout level) break.

    Only two things are a significant probability now

    1) A test (and possible surpass) of the old 104 highs, potential resumption of the trend.
    2) A low probability reversal RIGHT NOW which would be a stunning bull trap

  • convictscott

    Huge event risk in AUDUSD this week – we have an election on Saturday here and it seems like we are headed for change of government. The new party is historically more pro-business (lower corporate taxes) than the old one. Bottom line, news cannot move the market unless it is ready to be moved, and this market is ready to be moved from a technical perspective

  • newbfxtrader

    Pro business would be Aussie bullish?

  • newbfxtrader

    Thx. I am gonna wait to see what happens at the 100 mark. Confirmation of breakout or failure.

  • sburtt

    Mole what broker are you guys using to trade live fx? and is this the same you use to run strategies on or are you using different provides for feed and live trading?

  • convictscott

    I am LOATH to go into this sort of thing, but uncertainty (political) = bad for capital inflows. Certainty = good in terms of foreign capital inflow. Abolishing mining taxes and lowering the corporate tax rate = good for capital inflows.

    My problem with this sort of thinking is it makes a lot of sense and at the same time is complete utter bullshit. I let the charts lead the way

  • convictscott

    You have a habit of doing this. Waiting for extra confirmation. This is the classic trader’s trap, waiting until you are sure, but the odds are never going to get better than 60:40.

    Think about it: Right now you have 60:40 odds of seeing 104, buy price of 99.26 and a reasonable wide stop of 97. 72 (your moving average). This is a risk of 2.04 vs reward of 4.74 at odds of 60:40.

    You wait until the result of the “battle for round number 100” and buy in when the bulls have won at 100.50. Your risk is 2.78 and your reward is 3.50, but the odds have remained UNCHANGED at 60:40 your favor.

    Right now you have betting odds. If you have a valid setup according to your rules – take it!

  • convictscott

    I use and recommend interactive brokers, but they are NOT for beginners. For fees and spread they are superb.

  • sburtt

    so do I, spreads are amazing, but I must say data feed is not optimal, therefore I was wondering if you guys are using IB or another source to generate your crazy ivan signals

    EDIT: what I mean is that sometimes the data feed gets stuck.. and by going on the historical data manager in NT to download the past few days totally changes the price action and indicators (back to real I guess), generating different entries exits on my strategies compared to live trading, therefore the nature of my query

  • newbfxtrader

    Haha yes. I like round numbers to get taken out. I hear what you are saying.

  • convictscott

    The round number is a completely valid concept, no argument. As a constructive criticism, you seem to be overly concerned with being right :)

  • convictscott

    Their data licks sweaty man balls. Intentionally so, as they want to discourage you from using it. We use IQFeed for signal generation

  • sburtt

    exactly my point… I will look into this, thanks for the advise as IB is really driving me crazy..

  • sburtt

    1 last query: what drives your choice to IQFeed? just curious are there are many providers out there… IQFeed seems to use quotes from FXCM

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah. I have been trying to wean myself off “fundies”….

  • newbfxtrader

    You have changed my trading tremendously. Now I look for support/resistance/round numbers. Then wait for reversal candle then take entry on break of that candle to downside for short and upside for long. I pay attention to candle bodies. If I don’t see good bodies in the direction I am trading I get out before the market takes me out. Accounts doing much better. Lesser trades. More winners and I actually understand what the hells going on.

  • BobbyLow

    Scott,
    I have a stupid question. I probably wont be trading the 480 ZB anyway but I assume that the ZB is the 30 Year US Treasury Futures? If it is, the prices that I’m seeing are quite a bit off from the 6 PM Signal to buy to close at 132’11. The 6 PM candle opened at 130’29 following the previous candle close of 130’28.
    So I can’t be looking at the same “ZB”. If this is the case, what “ZB” should I be looking at? This is the second time that I’ve happened to look at a ZB trade and price was way off. So I must be looking at the wrong thing.

  • convictscott

    funny-mentals

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Bobby I thought I might answer since I noticed it as well. CI is using the September contact /ZBU3 whereas your platform has moved to the December contract. The other item i’m encountering is my platform, for a 480 minute, starts candles at 8 a.m. 4 p.m. and midnight CDT I need to look at settings to adjust those if I want to see the same candles as CI

  • convictscott

    ZB is 30 year. and my prices are off as well – captain Mole is using September, hasn’t rolled over. I will get him to fix

  • convictscott

    First notice day is the last biz day of the preceding month

  • convictscott

    With ninja is very easy, have 2 connections in the order first datafeed, then broker feed. On your broker check “use other feed for historical data”. Also the advantage is if you connect once a month with your broker and kinetick simultaneously you can get free data with the cme data waiver program

  • convictscott

    Yes nobody will confirm but my belief is that the quote is fxcm (which is a garbage retail feed). The bottom line is that it doesn’t really matter about the data feed, what matters is the spread of the broker at the time of execution. The decision to use iqfeed is because the data handling relationship with ninjatrader is deeper and more synergistic than the alternatives (the viable alternative for the ninja platform is barchart.com which is excellent data)

    For us reliability is paramount in a complex strategy running at 4500 lines of code and with bug fixes and maintenance driving Mole crazy and taking up way too much of his time. Whether the spread is .5 tick or 2 ticks makes little difference to us as we are executing off IB anyway

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks Scott and Rightside.

    Yep, that’s it cause I am showing December too.

    Thanks again guys.

  • convictscott

    Or you could just run crazy ivan. 3 from 3 right now just sayin 😉

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    AUD putting the breaks on. Failed at hourly BL back test .8984. Short (scratches head)

  • Skynard

    Dipped toe Yen, tagging the 62 outside the 4 hour. Div fail

  • yades

    Scott thanks this really helps me a lot. Is there any specific reason you connect to IB via the gateway rather than directly?

  • Skynard

    Nice move on the /ES, Yen hopping:)

  • Skynard

    If the /ES decides to drop. Here is my target, the neckline is currently lining up nicely with lower BB at 55. Kind of like to see a bounce at 4 hr lower BB 1618 if it slices through the hourly. EUR red, go figure?

  • Skynard

    Nice little DT on /NG here, shall see, due for some pullback. Bearish wedge pattern.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨

    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨

    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸

    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • amokta

    I think i will stick to my trusted ‘back to the futures’ calculator :-)
    http://retrocalculators.com/default_files/Tiger%20Mechanical%20Calculator%20Front%20Low-Res%20Antique%20Odhner%20%28RetroCalculators%29.JPG

    Anyway, great programming by Mole, as always!