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German Comedy Contest
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German Comedy Contest

by The MoleSeptember 23, 2016

This may come as a complete shock to you, but this may be the first time in modern history that a German has won a comedy contest, and without British assistance. Yes, just let that sink in for a while. Now I already know what you’re thinking: If this isn’t a clear sign that the West is heading straight into the new Dark Ages then I don’t know what is. And I would agree with you, but let me explain. It all started with Howard Lindzon snapping a screenshot of Marc Faber, a.k.a. Dr. Doom, who was trying out what must have been his new comedy routine on MSNBC, suggesting that the Dow may at some point touch the 100,000 mark. So Howard snaps a screenshot and puts it on Twitter along with a challenge:

2016-09-23_stocktoberfest_challenge

Meanwhile down here at the trading lair there wasn’t much to do courtesy of Mario Draghi bitch slapping Euro traders around, so I decided to respond in kind.  And lo and behold – within less than an hour I was awarded comedy gold and thereby managed to single handedly vindicate the ill reputation of German humor once and for all. A proud accomplishment which admittedly may have much to do with the fact that, despite being born there, I haven’t set foot on German soil for over 25 years.

But irrespective of any technicalities it is clear that I should expect appropriate recognition to be awarded in light of the great service I bravely rendered, and may I say against all odds and in the face of the fickle favors of social media. Howard already did his part and word has it that Angela Merkel herself is now considering to grant me the Grand Cross Star, Special Class for comedic services rendered to the people of Germany. Take that Thomas Gottschalk! (trust me, you’re better off not knowing)

german_order_merit_with_special_sash

This one will look rather impressive on my wall right next to my Darwin Award.

German Comedy Contest

Now until I am asked to appear at the ceremony in Berlin however I’ll have to make due with the free ticket I won to the Stocktoberfest in Coronado, which is right in front of San Diego. There’s only a teeny weeny problem in that I live in Spain now and, although very tempting, planning a trip there at such short notice would be difficult. Damn you Howard – why didn’t you ask me to be funny in 2012 when I still lived in Los Angeles? Anyway, my loss shall be your gain in that Howard graciously allowed me to raffle off the ticket to one of you readers here at Evil Speculator.

The Rules

And here’s how to participate: Simply post the most politically incorrect joke involving Germany or Germans in general in the comment section. No safe spaces here at the evil lair! The one with the highest disqus upvotes wins and thus will be awarded the free ticket to Stocktoberfest. Have at it!

2016-09-23_spoos

Alright, now on to business. Last week’s entry finally started to pay off Wednesday and even managed to survive Draghi’s speech yesterday. However in the hours that followed I noticed a distinct lack of buying interest on the Zero although the VIX dropped all the way below 12. Basically the barn door was wide open but the bulls weren’t interested in heading higher. Which was a bit surprising until I consulted the longer term panels:

2016-09-23_weekly

The weekly reminds us that there is a veritable forest of weekly Net-Lines stacked all the way into 2180. And given the lack of momentum I saw yesterday the odds of jumping all that at this stage are pretty low. I know this is not what you want to hear but we’ve got to live with the facts. Ergo I have taken partial profits and am only trailing a small position (1/3R) with a stop below 2160.

2016-09-23_silver_update

Silver has been very good to us – once again we got very lucky on the entry side and managed to sustain two shake out attempts before prices suddenly slammed higher. That is actually a pretty common theme I have been observing over the past year or two and is the reason why I delay trailing my stop until an MFE of at least 2R. Currently I’m trailing at about -0.5R near 19.8.

2016-09-23_gold_update

The gold campaign wasn’t any easier – what is not shown on the chart is the early shake out that preceded it. We had been originally short and scheduled to flip for longs near 1320. Once again delaying a trailing stop paid off and I just now advanced it to < 1338.

2016-09-23_zb_failure

ZB is the one that got away, which once again shows that even with the best planning and maximum discipline you just can’t catch them all. No reason to beat yourself up about it, that’s part of being in the game.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • ridingwaves

    Congrats on your new award…
    Market muddling around today after all that suspense last couple days…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think that’s what is so disturbing. The only movement we really see are event based and mainly due to central bank updates. In between it’s been nothing but churn for over a year. Retail for one has mentally checked out of equities. And the bots are playing ping pong. At some point we’re going to see a massive market dislocation and everyone is going to wonder WTF just happened.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Stocktoberfest
    “This year we are celebrating the active and passive investors that have pushed US Markets to all-time highs. ”

    This is one bulls-ballsy basis for a conference. Could even turn into a fantastic joke I suppose.

  • Yoda
  • AcoBrasil

    Do you know why Germans build such high-quality products?
    So they won’t have to go around being nice while they fix them.

  • Mark Shinnick

    If the participation thing might be characterized as apathy, the bus will not likely be too loaded ….at least we are getting a ringside seat to that theory for the time being.

  • ZigZag

    What’s green and German?
    Snotzis.

  • kudra

    Mole: thanks for showing up to work day in and day out. Much obliged. Have a great weekend.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m a trader mostly quite ignorant of market and world commercial “news”….enbubbled mostly within my own data-centric modeled reality lens. I know I am a nerd….by choice. In this field there are relatively few points of contact with others I feel I can trust…and this blog happens to be one of them.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    So much praise today – I can’t handle it…

  • Yoda

    If I weren’t already fully invested, this is where I would go long junior PM miners
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e33779cdb0c1445b4697aa0c7d93951fe9bce9fe27d30e9c6136223e3676e732.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, I completely see your point. I’m still short miners from yesterday.

  • Yoda

    I am probably trading on a longer time frame than you are.

  • Mark Shinnick

    At points like this it may not matter. USD is at a very similar juncture; what it does I think will end up wagging gold’s tail.

  • Mark Shinnick

    The longer term picture is truly fascinating. Assuming a Trump win, seems to me $ will become very desirable. Based on that, $ is bot as corps repatriate to the US and newly patriate to better settle-into this market.

  • ridingwaves

    there are troubling $ shortage issues, look at TIC and Shibor….the dollar rise has pretty hurt China reserves as they fight to devalue the Remnembi against the dollar peg…

  • ridingwaves

    I figured this little bear raid was available for abusing before comex 27th opex….

  • ridingwaves

    interesting news-Fed proposes to restrict bank involvement with physical commodities

  • BKXtoZERO
  • http://www.linkedin.com/in/sharondsessions/ Sharon

    I will definitely add my second to that. Many thanks for all you do for us. Including the Daily Chuckle that I get from participating here. And, the learning on all kinds of topics. Happy Happy weekend.

  • Yoda

    LOL, you think too much. One thing is clear though, $ and PMs are inversely correlated.

  • Yoda
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You got to give him credit for paying attention in this shit…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Weimar Republic? Meh…

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Not a single joke here today? Where is everyone?

  • BKXtoZERO

    you said no limit ;-0

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I also said funny 😉

  • ZigZag

    I put a joke in – but as a German maybe you didn’t see it.

  • ridingwaves

    picked up a little NUGT here

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I like that one!

  • ZigZag

    Q: What did the German kid say when he pushed his brother off a cliff?
    A: “Look, mother, no Hans!”

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I like that one.

  • kudra

    uh oh. what price? I’m liking DUST. I do admire your confidence in gold, but I’m not sure why you’re so certain.

  • almez

    I noticed that vol has not increased as much as I thought.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Let’s see….equities quasi-respectfully down….and vol hardly notices….yeah, right.

  • Ronebadger

    Mr. Bernstein is driving around Miami Beach in his Cadillac and stopped to swim at a private beach…where he was promptly arrested and hauled into court. The judge asked him: Mr. Bernstein, you were swimming at a beach that was clearly marked with a sign that indicated:
    “Private Beach No Swimming Allowed”. Do you have anything to say for yourself?

    Mr. Bernstein replied, “That’s how YOU read the sign?” The judge asked him, “Well, how do YOU read the sign?”

    Mr. Bernstein said he was driving along and read a sign that said:
    ” Private Beach??? No! …. SWIMMING ALLOWED!!! “

  • Ronebadger

    THE STORY OF FATHER MURPHY

    Father Murphy was a priest in a very small parish, and they were especially poor. Having exhausted all ideas to raise money in the church, he read that horse owners make a lot of money racing them. So, he took his own savings and went to an auction to buy a horse. When he arrived at the auction, he realized that he did not have nearly enough money to buy a quality racer, but not wanting to leave dejected and empty handed, he bought
    whatever he could afford, so he bought a donkey.

    He brought the donkey home and threw all his time and efforts into training his
    donkey with one of the parish’s farm-boy teenagers as a jockey. After a month or so, the well-meaning priest thought he was ready to enter his donkey in a race. He did, and surprisingly, the donkey came in 3rd place and Father Murphy was paid a portion of the purse! Amazed, all the sports writers flocked to Father Murphy to interview him about his fantastic donkey. The next day, all the headlines read: Father Murphy’s Ass Shows.

    After this, Father Murphy ran the donkey again, and it won and Father Murphy took
    home some big-time money! Next day, the headlines read: Father Murphy’s Ass Out In Front. The Archbishop, being an avid sports fan, sees this and travels to see
    Father Murphy to investigate this troubling headline. In the meantime, Father Murphy races again and this time the donkey comes in 2nd place. Well, the headlines read the next day: Father Murphy’s Ass Back In Place.

    Seeing this headline, the Archbishop visits the kind Father and tells him that he
    can’t race the donkey anymore. The priest explains that he already had entered the donkey in that day’s race, but the Archbishop insisted that he could no longer race this wonderful
    animal. Wondering why the donkey was removed from the race that day, the sports writers asked Father Murphy what was going on. He explained about the Archbishop,
    so the next day the headlines read: Archbishop Scratches Father Murphy’s Ass.

    The Archbishop sees the headline and informs Father Murphy that he has to get rid
    of the donkey, so he gives the retired winner to Sister Agatha. When the sports writers find this out, the headlines read: Sister Agatha Gets Ass From Father Murphy. Now, the Archbishop is fuming and quite sick about the whole affair and demands that Sister Agatha get rid of the donkey immediately and get it completely out of the church, so she sells it to a man in a neighboring town. The next day, the headlines read: Sister Agatha Sells Ass For $50.

    They buried the Archbishop three days later.

  • Benson Burns

    Q: Have you heard about the new German microwave ? A: It’s got ten seats inside.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Oh shit – I don’t think I’m allowed to like this one… being German and all.

  • Yoda

    How does every German joke start? By looking over your shoulder.

  • ZigZag

    Q: What do you get when you cross a Mexican and a German? A: A Beaner-Schnitzel

  • ZigZag

    Last try –

    What is the German word for constipation?

    Farfrompoopin.

  • Mark Shinnick

    OK…I’ve backed-off the short miners pretty close to those highs today….for the time being anyway.

  • Yoda

    Here is a classic, and I hope Mole makes it alive after watching it.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b_GeQ4EEdTk

  • Yoda

    Price action has been very bullish since Sept 1st

  • JBMW12

    What do you call a blind german? A notsee

  • Mark Shinnick
  • calendar

    When asked why it was that only Germans are able to build clean diesel engines, a VW executive answered; “Because we invented the gas chamber!.”

    (that might need more work) Hi Mole!!

  • Benson Burns

    I believe this joke meets the spec.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    hehehe

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    That’s my favorite so far.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I would have voted for it but there aren’t any Germans involved!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Hey there!

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What is it with you and the miners??

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think an entire generation has been fucked over and they are in the process of screwing over several future ones as well.

    If you really reflect on all the shit that’s happening out there right now. Politically, economically, ecologically, culturally – it’s just fucking sad. Horrible news wherever you look. I always wanted to live a long life but at this point I wonder if I should be careful what I wish for.

  • kudra

    Thoughts on how this might effect gold? On its face, it looks like a negative for gold prices.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, it’s not in my hands – the guys have to vote. So far it’s been a bit disappointing to be honest. Not much enthusiasm here. I think the general mood has become sour due to the impossible market conditions we’ve been through over the past year. Not the energy I remember from a few years back. I may have to take a few weeks off myself if it continues like this.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    German foreign minister bursts into Angela Merkel office screaming:
    “Frau Merkel, there are thousands refugees at the border and more coming every day”
    “Syrians”, Merkel asks
    “No. Germans. they want to leave…”

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    A Jew walks around a train station in Berlin.
    He comes up to one German and asks: “What do you think of Jews?”
    “O, they are wonderful people…”
    Jew walked away before German has a chance to finish, finds another guy and asks the same question
    “very smart, hard working…”, another German replies.
    But Jew just turns around and asks third guy what he thinks of Jews

    “Fucking greedy, money-hungry, disgusting pigs”, third German exclaims.
    “O, good. Finally, an honest man”, Jew says with relief.
    “Can you please, watch my kids while I run to a bathroom…”

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Winter.
    Ukrainian President Poroshenko decided to sabotage Russian business and closed a gas pipeline that transits Russian nat gas to Europe.
    The following morning.
    Defense minister bursts into Poroshenko bedroom screaming:
    “War!. Our defences are over-run! The enemy are at the outskirts of Kiev…”
    “Russians?”, Ukrainian President assumes
    “No, Germans…”

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    I can keep on going, but the market is about to open.
    besides, I can’t go to Cali
    But, enjoy anyway
    😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I think Bergamot wins this one :)

    I’m working on a post but am running late. Give me 15 minutes.

  • ZigZag

    Well please don’t forget my no Hans joke, plus I could use the ticket.

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Thank you, thank you
    Tips Hat

    may i offer my prize to a next runner up
    ZigZag
    If not because of the joke, He is the only one who displayed interest in a ticket itself.
    dreams come true, my friend

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ..your late.
    are you suuure you’re German?

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    Spaniards corrupted him

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    yeah. Los-Angeles ‘spaniards’.
    😉

  • http://ibergamot.blogspot.com/ i Bergamot

    its like Mexican living in Dominican Republic

  • kudra

    That was my fave.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Yoda
  • Yoda
  • Benson Burns

    Yeah, I agree. I only trade long stocks and am trying to develop a mechanical futures system but really haven’t been able to produce anything that performs acceptably, particularly the most recent years backtest results. Hats off to those making cash in this game.