Get The Hell Out
Actually the title of this post has a double meaning. First – and of course it’s trading related: We’ve had a lot of fun with the chumps lately but it’s time to go into cash and spend our ill gotten gains on floozy women and cheap booze. Let me show you why:
That’s right – volatility has dropped like a rock and unless some EOD super drop occurs chances are we are going to close outside the 2.0 BB on Mr. VIX. And you know what that means by now (I hope) – that’s right, odds are high we may be getting a VIX sell signal sometime next week. So get out while the getting is still good and the chumps are being short squeezed.
UPDATE @ the closing bell: Despite more upside we closed INSIDE the 2.0 BB. That was one nasty play by the MMs and keeps the door open for further upside.
Second: It’s the Friday before America celebrates its independence (which in the past few decades has been sold to the highest bidder), and it’s time to get out of dodge and forget all about trading for a few days. Squeeze your expanding waist line into your favorite speedo and spend some time in the sun with your friends and loved ones. Or do whatever gives you the most kicks, relabel your stamp collection, go fly fishing, spend some quality time at the nudie bar – as long as it has nothing to do with trading it has Mole’s seal of approval. Trust me – your little rodent brains will thank you later and you’ll be more energized to deal with whatever the tape throws at us next week.
Which brings me to a few more short term charts for my subs:
Charts and commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
First runner up – bonds: Boy that was a long ride down and whatever open short positions you have should be closed now. Yes, we could drop a bit further toward 119 but why take the chance?
Gold – we are basically at target right as we drop through the NLSL here. The odds are iffy and I maintain that PMs are a slow trade these days.
Similar picture in Silver – we are at the NLSL and the best trade I see here is to be long unless we close below 33.38.
Boy that copper trade is really kicking ass now – I would take partial profits but keep a lottery ticket or two for the 4.5 mark.
Finally, EUR/USD – We are pushing toward our first target although I have an inkling we’re going to get a retest here – so I would take profits here and now as the upside potential is not in line with the risk. Too much can happen over the long weekend.
Okay, before I run one bonus chart for everyone:
Now I do not trade the grains but Volar does. Which is why I very much would appreciate his input on this huge move in the corn futures. Now, technically speaking we are way outside both BBs here and a long position may be worth a lottery ticket or two.
And that’s all I have for now – but that doesn’t mean I’m already cracking open a few Hefeweizen – no sirree! I’m working on a post 4th of July surprise for all of you and I’m sure you going to like it. More about it next week.
See You Next Tuesday! 😉