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Ghost In The Shell – 2011-09-21
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Ghost In The Shell – 2011-09-21

by The MoleSeptember 21, 2011

Episode 2011-09-21: System Error

Zero Lite nailed the tape starting with the first candle – never as much as poked its head through its zero line.

The future is now – and it’s not unlike the past, just more leveraged and out of control. Ignore the headlines, the news, and the drama. The charts are your only friends in this market.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Kudos

    Dollar closed above NSL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ????????????????????????????????­??????????????

    D   A   I    L   Y      Z   E   R   O     H   A   S      B   E    E   N      U   P   D   A   T   E   D

    ????????????????????????????????­???????????????

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Boy, you are quick… just posted this.

  • Anonymous

    Looking at XLF, I see 2008 all over again.

  • Kudos

    I posted 30 seconds before you posted new post on the other thread. I thought it was worth pointing out. I was long the dollar off the 4 sigma reading on the zeroFX + pushing outside the 90 minute candle on the bollinger + the fact that the euro basically just retraced its most recent gap. I closed out my trade for a nice profit before thinking about the NSL and I now want to reenter

  • volar

    well bonds are already there

  • Anonymous

    yep.

    oh, europe also.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good work, mate :-)

  • Anonymous

    Someone took the fakeout sell setup yesterday?

  • Anonymous

    Not me, but hopefully someone did – you posted it in good time for everyone!

  • Anonymous

    yep.

  • Anonymous

    yep.

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    those blue spikes on the 6e made my yr today….talking about zero and zerofx!!!!!!!!

  • Anonymous

    Not me, Damit!

  • Anonymous

    Copper falling hard tonight.

  • Anonymous

    watching aapl screws one’s brain…  mine at least…

    Good call.

  • Anonymous

    watching aapl screws one’s brain…  mine at least…

    Good call.

  • Kudos

    Might still be going, top of a mini channel forming potentially on 90 minute candles with 3 touches. Consolidation under 1.385 is bearish. Could be a fun stop gun excersize tonight to be played with a tight stop

  • Anonymous

    This fall today may go further:  Gold is retreating, not a safe heaven anymore. Dollar/Bond ruled. Commodity has been dropping, Ags./Energy have been falling in multiple days while Apple broke higher. $DJT & $RUT also gave away as well. What happen to food shortage, peak oil??   Guess the virtual apple is enough to quench the appetite?

    The chart reminds me of August 2008 before the big drop.

  • Kudos

    Mole, are you working on zeroFX? feed is down and it does really help time good exits and entries.

  • Anonymous

    GG, in reply to your comment on the last post, I haven’t touched my position since I entered it last Friday p.m.

    I know one thing though: I’ll be fully in cash before the end of this week.

  • Anonymous

    I was already in short. When the setup triggered, I was in heaven. Thanks for sharing it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, working on the system, sorry.

  • http://standardpoor.wordpress.com/ standard_and_poor

    road-map for thursday:http://www.screencast.com/t/FO8SkiPSkOh0
    or click on my name for more details.

  • Skates

    That’s a big run…71 would be the high if we reverse imo…

  • Anonymous

    Tyler Durden was starting to get bullish. A contrary indicator IMO.

  • Anonymous

    Nice one! FYI one of the signs that a market is starting to follow “the script” is that the patterns start to work. Experience tells me that periods when the patterns work can give a month or so of 90% performance. 

  • TwinTurboRX7

    I worked in semi industry. The news is that forecast for 2012 is a bit less than 2011. Gartner shows high inventory too.
    I know we ignore news, but are these data instead of entertainment news..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    LOL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    It’s up again.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Short cable at 1.5450 on the break of a 4H inside bar.

    Just woke up and USDCAD is up one handle since yesterday! It`s the trade of the year to me so far, 2 handles in 2 days fucking beautiful.

  • Anonymous

    Just getting started buddy!

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    My problem here is not get stopped while the beast soar…locked 6R so far

  • Anonymous

    haha. dont be greedy. back off and let it ride!

  • volar

    The only one i did was 4H RTV/inside bar on NQ at top of resistance/trend line

    would have been a much better day for me if i did not cut my position to nearly 0 bc of a fed day.

  • volar

    AUD had buy stop  >1.02 due to gap… and yesterday i was nervous. Woke up this am… -314

    The crazy part is i expect to get stopped out of bonds or yen… and the relentless panic just does not give up there.

  • Anonymous

    Excellent Onorio!. Well done.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    LMAO i can`t even trail the stops…this shit is relentless

  • volar

    i think he is in the same camp as every gold bull.

    few trillion or so in bonds at 1.8% as a parking lot. 

    where do they go next? TLT yield of 3%, with price moving 4%…….

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    AUD is very weak IMO, i said yesterday to you that the fact that the weekend gap wasn`t filled was a clear sign of weakness. Sad i didn`t have any sell signal yesterday, but i don`t like to jump in the bandwagon :/

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Make that 8R…

  • Anonymous

    Copper down 6% this AM.

  • volar

    yup- same page as you mate. gap was not filled= bull rape

  • volar

    350! …  wow this looks to be well over 8R!!!!!!

    Scott got to love price action! I do tons and tons of work, but all 3 of my home runs in the last 12 months- PRICE ACTION

  • Schwerepunkt

    CAD is crashing. Down 3% today and 5% this week.

  • Anonymous

    Mole’s 1hr and 5min charts are going to have to change their scale today…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Wow – this is pretty significant. Look at the Mole panel – all three lines below the mark!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yeah, that was a sweet setup which resolved to the long side.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Price action is simply amazing V, you could loose 3 trades in a row but when you score you get this 8R, and is plain simple no indicators no complications, just charts.

    But IMO price action should be played in 4H/Daily, smaller time frames are risky and should be traded with small positions.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    How’s everyone doing? Keep your cool today, folks! Let your winners run but don’t get greedy.

  • Anonymous

    ..

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    they take down the winners last.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    disqus is still wanky.  PoorKing’s post went from an AAPL comment to “dot dot”.

    it’s happening over on Daneric too.

    goes hand-in-hand with active Market.  too many comments in the system.

  • volar

    ha 240 MIN has been consistent for me. Like NQ on top of its wedge- just a superb trade. I had very small position due to FED day

    http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/dd0bd0e2-6c97-4710-a5cc-ae2296caed63/2011-09-22_0750.png

  • http://profiles.google.com/acabrera768 andres cabrera

    i feel like hanging myself

  • Anonymous

    Should we have seen this coming?  Big blue spike on Cable and Euro a few days ago.  Thoughts?

  • Anonymous

    “don’t get greedy”: best advice for the day!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezzz – mate – what happened??

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Jeezzz – mate – what happened??

  • Anonymous

    mind the blood puddles on the street

  • http://profiles.google.com/acabrera768 andres cabrera

    I woke up this morning to a horrible mess…

  • Kudos

    Stay frosty gents, Zero signal weakening. Did not take out premarket low on latest push. Never bad to take some profits

  • Anonymous

    Good to see Poorking here, usually on HOB!

    Yes, disqus fails when market crashes – maybe they share the same mainframe as the NYSE, and are sharing clock cycles

  • Anonymous

    My cardboard strip is keeping me frosty :0

  • Anonymous

    Nice to get ‘free’ zero info – beats paying for a sub :-)

    (reply to kudos)

  • Anonymous

    Exactly. here’s just an example of how some traders of the long side think, from a widely read blog this morning:
    But, I believe that it’s fear you should be buying because that’s when prices are coming to you. That’s when the stocks of the highest quality companies are available at a deep discount and, in my mind, that’s when you ought to be shopping. Had you done the same thing in the 4Q2008-1Q2009 when the Dow 30 was anywhere from 6500-8500 you would have had many temporary losers on your hands; however by the end of 2009 the Dow was up to around 10,500 on its way to well over 12,500 after just 24 months.

  • Kudos

    As the first comments from me and BHgroup show, that just ain’t true. Those 4 sigma blue spikes on the zero FX made some bank. Also knowing that it is weakening helps make decisions before even posting (cause I don’t post till I’m more certain). 

  • Schwerepunkt

    A/D is strongly bearish, with 90% of stocks down and 9% up. up/down volume is at the same ratio. Not expecting a big snap back with those numbers. Leading indicators not going to change the trend today, IMO.

  • volar

    leading indicators follow stocks- whats the point for LEIs?

  • Anonymous

    :-) Hope your banking coin
    Wish i had zero sub

  • Anonymous

    What’s on my mind is that after that bluse spike in the hourly Eur/usd the Zero hasn’t dropped under zero since late last night

  • Schwerepunkt

    I don’t know, but market bumped up a bit after the LEI report “beat” expectations. Not saying it makes any sense. It is what it is. Es went above VWAP, now we’ve drifted back to VWAP. Does VWAP now represent support?

  • volar

    news does not matter IMO. consider the implied correlation an pomo chart i put out yesterday? the market is light years ahead of data

  • volar

    OK taking profit on long 30yr on 08 gap fill… i just cant hold that longer… just cant

  • Schwerepunkt

    I can never accept the ABSOLUTE statement news do not matter. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t. I will agree that basing a trading strategy around news is laughable and highly dangerous to one’s account. But the market clearly wobbles when news happens it deems is important — but it is impossible to trade on that. 

    At the least, one must be aware that volatility will often spike on/about news. So, from a stop management standpoint, one has to be aware of when news is published because, as you say, news might not matter, but your stops might be hit if they’re tight.

  • Schwerepunkt

    I can never accept the ABSOLUTE statement news do not matter. Sometimes it does and sometimes it doesn’t. I will agree that basing a trading strategy around news is laughable and highly dangerous to one’s account. But the market clearly wobbles when news happens it deems is important — but it is impossible to trade on that. 

    At the least, one must be aware that volatility will often spike on/about news. So, from a stop management standpoint, one has to be aware of when news is published because, as you say, news might not matter, but your stops might be hit if they’re tight.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Does anyone have an opinion about ATT (T)? I’m considering parking some slow money when this downdraft ends and like the 6% dividend yield, strong market share and the low (relatively speaking) 50% payout ratio. Stock has been pummeled like everything else, plus there is the pending and troubled deal to buy Deutche Telekom, which the DOJ wants to block. Any input would be welcomed. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Does anyone have an opinion about ATT (T)? I’m considering parking some slow money when this downdraft ends and like the 6% dividend yield, strong market share and the low (relatively speaking) 50% payout ratio. Stock has been pummeled like everything else, plus there is the pending and troubled deal to buy Deutche Telekom, which the DOJ wants to block. Any input would be welcomed. 

  • bshah

    well.. Mole.. I wish I had held on to those AAPL puts .. But none-the less, i bailed out today in first 15 minutes. and booked 1k profit.. so all in all, including y’days loss, I came out still positive.. Just wanted to share that with you all.. Damn.. this thing can sweat you like a pig..

  • volar

    u dont know who is or is not short before the news and why or why not they are or are not short. of course it impacts the value of prices- but YOU, as you just stated, do not know the outcome. BC you dont know the players or their positions- or their reasoning.  But to think that insiders dont know earnings or  that china does not know its own PMI/oil consumption would be naivety

    everybody has skin in the game and will always take money- legal or not. news is noise and has NO EDGE. THERE IS NO EDGE IN NEWS. YOU CAN ONLY WIN AT THIS ***GAME*** IF YOU HAVE AN EDGE.
     

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Small sell order on AUDUSD on the break of 9730, 1H inside bar.

    Small sell order on EURCAD on break of 1.3840, 1H RTV sell.

  • Schwerepunkt

    Agree. News gives you no edge. But you cannot completely ignore the news schedule either. You must be aware when “news” comes out because a lot of stops get hit on/around news. My point is weird shit happens around news announcements. You need to be prepared for that. 

  • Schwerepunkt

    Agree. News gives you no edge. But you cannot completely ignore the news schedule either. You must be aware when “news” comes out because a lot of stops get hit on/around news. My point is weird shit happens around news announcements. You need to be prepared for that. 

  • volar

    ya i agree on that. I and joe_jones have been there and basically said dont bother with the first 1-2 hours of trading for that reason

  • volar

    ya i agree on that. I and joe_jones have been there and basically said dont bother with the first 1-2 hours of trading for that reason

  • Anonymous

    Yeah, the high dividend stocks will pay nicely…..WHEN? this thing hits bottom…wherever that is

  • Schwerepunkt

    DJIA painted a new LOD not long ago, but SPX did not. Mixed message.

  • Anonymous

    Back in the fray……

  • Anonymous

    Interesting observation:
    FAS down 10.5%
    FAX up 8%

    so that means people are selling FAS faster than they are buying FAZ???

  • Anonymous

    Hey all….back after a short hiatus

  • Anonymous

    maybe a year or so?

  • Schwerepunkt

    Welcome back.

  • Anonymous

    I’m short FSLR from a few days ago…….think I’ll stick with it for awhile…….don’t see much positive in the world of solar

  • Anonymous

    Shorted a little RIMM after the gap fill

  • volar

    NEVER under any circumstances play leveraged ETFs the math is rigged.

    If you want to be a bear in XLF, Short the mother. the “exotic” ETFs are only intended to screw retail IMO

  • Anonymous

    AUD/JPY moving back down rapidly

  • Anonymous

    OF COURSE, they are not a buy and hold, they’re like options to me.

  • Anonymous

    when i take a look at today’s tickers, you can hardly be wrong by being short anything. :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    bottom just fell out. 1097 next?

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You missed out on a lot of fun!

  • Anonymous

    Covered my FSLR short…..didn’t want to succumb to greed

  • Anonymous

    STill s RIMM…..long TWM and SDS

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good job. And it’s better to wish being in a trade than to wish being out of one.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hehehe :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Yikes!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    GG has a T time of market close. 4PM.

    check my Blog for a chart.

    -GG

  • Anonymous

    They are great for day trading!

    THEY ARE ALSO GREAT TO BUY PUTS ON WHEN THE MARKET TURNS.

  • Anonymous

    Yesterday’s T was interesting….looking back on it now

  • volar

    buy and hold or not. the numbers of +10.5 and +8 also prove my point for intraday.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    As a loyal leech, would the AUD/JPY lead on a turn up?
    not that we turn up today, but you know what I mean….leading indicator.

  • Anonymous

    check out that red candle on NZD/USD monthly…

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    showin a bit of stremf on the 5 min ZeroFx , closing above a NLBL
    but well under on the hourly

  • Anonymous

    on 5 min chart, i see rising lower indicators (MACD, RSI), with AUD/JPY going nowhere – consolidation.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Short USDCAD 1H RTV sell (i must be insane)

  • Anonymous

    watching cocoa today, nice reversal at the weekly lower 100 BB
    still imbedded in the Daily 25 lower BB, but a nice hammer

  • Anonymous

    My piece of cardboard says we *should* bounce a bit here

  • Anonymous

    covered half my short from last week for 60 points es, trailing stop on back half till they take me out

  • Anonymous

    What the hell, Bloomberg described Christine Lagarde’s interview as wishful thinking.

  • Anonymous

    WHEN?????

  • Anonymous

    WHEN?????

  • Anonymous

    WHEN?????

  • Anonymous

    Like it or not, you can draw a 3 touch line on the lows of ZL

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¨°º¤  R A T L I N G S  ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • Anonymous

    The board does not speak – It only points.

  • Anonymous

    yup

  • Anonymous

    margin call season open?