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Going Nowhere Fast

by The MoleAugust 31, 2012

I certainly was wrong about today promising to be a boring session. To my credit I was however right about it going sideways as we seem to be heading nowhere fast. This will be a very quick update as I am ready to embrace my well deserved long weekend and already have a ‘Maß’ (i.e. German 1 liter mug) of Hefeweizen waiting for me.

The highlight of the day on the charting side is that we may just get our second leg into a bonafide VIX buy signal. If you are a noob then don’t be confused by the terminology as it’s relative to equities. Per the rules please check the cheat sheet. Well, the fat lady hasn’t sung for the session yet but judging by the current gyrations on the spoos we may just get lucky here. Tuesday would be such a nice opportunity for a confirmation – but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Talking about the E-Mini – the 25-day SMA seems to act as solid support thus far, adding further credence to my suggestions that we may be getting a sideways correction here. Admittedly any solid bets are off ahead of Jackson Hole, which invariably will introduce more volatility into this snoozer of a tape.

Meanwhile over at the woodshed ole’ bucky is making valiant efforts at recapturing its Maginot Line but thus far has been failing ignominiously. Today’s stab lower may pave the way for future weakness – pretty tired looking chart this.

Silver – finally arriving at our target after making a quick detour through the drive-in. If you have not done so take profits here and add another notch to your ‘kick ass trades 2012 board’. Like on gold you got two entry opportunities here and if you snoozed them both then you only have yourself to blame. Of course if you weren’t a sub then you can claim ignorance of the law but that won’t help you much with Judge Mole – I hear he swings a heavy hammer.

EUR/USD continue to nibble on that 100-day resistance. If we get a breach here Monday then I think things on the equities side could fall into place nicely.

Cable – as suggested it snapped back up to its NLBL for a retest – which was the very reason I wasn’t interested in a short position here. Mostly looking out for a long breach here. Once she’ll clear the NLBL I think it’s going to be golden.

I know I said no setups ahead of Tuesday but I ran into two futures setups simply too juicy to pass up – please step into my evil lair:
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More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Sugar – let’s see what we have here: Possible floor formation after a relentless sell off. Break out attempt – failed and any longs taken to the cleaners. Now we have a double inside day + NR4 combo. I just can’t let this one slip – need to grab at a few contracts on an inside day breach probably Monday night. Noobs – read the rules on the cheat sheet!

ZN – the 10-year futures contract. 100-day SMA fail followed by a NLSL failure – interesting! Now at the 100-day SMA and either it’s a last kiss goodbye or a long entry. I have no directional bias here and will follow whichever side of the SMA it decides to pick.

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Honorable Mention:

The Mole signals are kicking ass lately – if you are a Zero sub then I certainly hope you are paying attention.

That’s it – wishing y’all a relaxing and fun Labor Day weekend!

Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://twitter.com/retracement_lev Retracement Levels

    Mole, what about posting clean white background charts that  do not require click to zoom?

    No offense, just so hard to read your charts with all that black, multiple colors, and each of them has to be clicked to see something.

    PS – my monitor is VERY large and I have no sight problems

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Everyone is a critic…

    Anyway, this is the way I see things best and in the end what matters is that I serve up juicy setups. Form follows function.

  • StrikeFirst

    Jackson Hole?

    This is what I think:

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Go Jesus!!!

  • Skynard

    Added puts at VWAP

  • ronebadger

    AMEN, brother!

  • bdoone

    Going Nowhere Fast: 9:30am ES 1406.75
                                 2:30pm ES 1406.75
    Nothing but beard induced stop-runs, but we can look forward to EOD month end shenanigans!

  • Skynard

    That’s the craziest hourly panel I’ve ever seen on the ZL. Lots of participation it seems.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I’ve seen nuttier but point taken.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Told you guys to not bother today…

  • Skynard

    Any lower and the wedge is busted. Better get those bots back on line:)

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Did you see the line gap at the beginning of the day on ZL?

  • Skynard

    Yes in deed, separation or skip on the 5 min.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    That seems to be working fairly consistent near swing areas

  • Skynard

    Yes, you a right. Mentioned that previously regarding those misses. Will pay closer attention to them.

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY not contributing again here. We know what that means:)

  • AMCabrera

    (handing axe over) but not today my belly is very full.

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    I thought you had mentioned them.
    Didn’t notice it the one today until later in the morning
    Lets see if it keeps giving signals 🙂

  • StrikeFirst

    Is this right?

  • Skynard

    Short /SI on this ramp.

  • Skynard

    That’s no 4, below VWAP.

  • amokta

    Facebook needs urgent face transplant, otherwise it will lose face.
    Who is the ghost riding this roller-ghoster of a market, its spooking me out!
    Is the market waiting for Jackson to come out of his hole?

    Anyway, no sign of crash, so maybe sideways, until uptrend re-asserts.

  • StrikeFirst

    Did Bernanke speak today?

  • SecChu

    Not really.  His mouth was moving, but I don’t think anything came out.

  • amokta

    Now thats what i call a triangle!

  • Darth_Gerb
  • raised_by_wolves

    Silver had the strongest daily and monthly relative performance, and you’re shorting it?

  • raised_by_wolves

    @twitter-782868896:disqus Opposite of you, I used to complain about Convict’s white background charts. Cool’s dark does me better.

  • raised_by_wolves

    Even the Gerbil is gone for the weekend, and I’m the only one long silver. (Feeling lonely).

    (SLV)/(GLD)/(FUCKING SPY)

  • StrikeFirst

    If XOM is a leading indicator, this is bearish.

  • StrikeFirst

  • Darth_Gerb

    RBW!!!!!
    it must be an Omen, the old vets are stopping by..

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/f9353ada-25cc-46d4-afd9-f70e3e9babb6/2012-08-31_1856.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/85a6f27e-9868-4f5c-9f06-6779ce44a3fc/2012-08-31_1859.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/d3c120e0-ac1c-452c-a922-5dcdc9d44009/2012-08-31_1900.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/28366c3a-499a-4aa9-9ba5-1dd7f08b28b1/2012-08-31_1900.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/23f32ffb-a150-47ce-8058-6f4cce35d440/2012-08-31_1921.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e5c5b3b2-668f-4997-9571-d09a52324b89/2012-08-31_1922.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e2a1740b-085c-48a0-a155-1cf24039b5de/2012-08-31_1926.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/25169888-ec8c-450c-8d27-fb5ed8bc0c46/2012-08-31_1927.png
    Several things must be considered. I will be looking at monthly/weekly charts for currency pairs. We are near break out regions and sitting on important levels all across the board I will only cover some here. I will be targeting GBP/JPY for longs if it continues to hold here. Now do not confuse me going long NZD/USD last night as any other than a trade play. My real intentions are to short if it fails to breach higher with larger size lots. It may be nothing but the monthly NZD/USD chart tells me that it needs to breach here and now or it is very vulnerable to downside action. AUD/USD is also vulnerable so at 1.0300 I will be going short for the 1.0100 handle. Same with EUR/USD. HOWEVER for right now I will only keep very tight stops when going short I will assume that it is stuck in the monthly sucker move territory. You can see that weekly that it could easily reach 1.2700 which would pierce the lower BB monthly line for the first time in three months. I have no problem flipping and going long for 1.300 but to be honest my main focus going forward will be the oceanic pairs because eur/usd could get silly at these levels. Then last and definitely least is the SPX looking ambiguous as the ambiguously gay duo. Now go enjoy your weekend.

  • Skynard

    At this point silver has pierced the 100 BB and playing a back test for next week. It’s also at 23.6 of the entire move from the high.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Convict Scott excerpt – Feb 2011

    “My experience is that I needed to have a HARD AND FAST RULE *never* to predict whats going to happen. Trading is so much easier emotionally from a place of “I dont fucking know”. You will *never* see me say “a top is in” .. my thinking process is more like “a move down here has potential to set off a chain reaction of bearishness”… “a move up here when the charts look quite bearish should set off a short squeeze and drive it higher still”.

    Trading a bias is death. The method you choose is irrelevant, I’m convinced I could make money using any legitimate method. In fact, the winning percentages off my patterns arent outstanding, depending on the type of price action they hover between 50% and 85%, but spend most of the time around 65%”

  • Skynard

    /DX long term chart. Good place for a bounce:)

  • StrikeFirst

    What did “convict” Scott do to become a convict?

    He didn’t kill anyone, did he?

  • newbfxtrader

    Next stop will be 88-90! I think we may hit 80 first.

  • BobbyLow

    Gems like these were a great help in turning my whole “trading experience” around.  

    As far as I’m concerned when it comes to trading truer words were never spoken.

    I don’t know what Scott is doing right now but I wish him the best.  

  • BobbyLow

    Don’t want to go into a lot of detail but Convict Scott had quite a history.  He spoke about it  after he first got here.  Everything he said was verifiable.  He also said that he began to read books on trading while in jail to help relieve his boredom.    

    He had a fascinating story and was the real deal.  

  • http://twitter.com/retracement_lev Retracement Levels

     ok, cool, np.

  • ghostlines

    His writing arround that time is what hooked me to ES and changed my trading completely.Price action rules. His brutal honesty was refreshing.I had never read anyone like him. Best wishes to him.

  • AMCabrera

    I’ve pulled my aud/usd short not really in the mood for this sort of action.  However, I have placed a short order for gbp/usd at 1.5870 my target will be 1.5770 o/n. 30 pip stop.

  • Skynard

    Nice gap on the Aussie. Currently short /CL, /HG, /SI, /GC, /ES, /ZS, AUDJPY, EURUSD and long /OJ.

  • newbfxtrader

    usd/cad longs looking good also a play on /cl.

  • Skynard

    Yep, looking good:)

  • newbfxtrader

    Yeah going for that one instead of trying to short the Aussie. Its looking oversold (that doesnt mean anything in forex but whatever!).

  • newbfxtrader

    I hope that’s short term play on gold and silver shorts. Looks like they are both breaking out of the triangle that contained them for months.

  • Darth_Gerb

    1392, bulls why are you so blu?
    http://s7.postimage.org/qtbhbsyex/temp1.png 

  • newbfxtrader
  • Darth_Gerb

    yeah, I hate the thing.  maybe it’s a lagging indicator.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Ah, just a snap back for a retest.

  • newbfxtrader

    Well we will keep an eye on it. Daily RSI on /es haven’t seen 70+ yet compared to summer so this sideways move could end in a rally.

  • newbfxtrader

    Oh ok. Did you notice cocoa broke out?

  • Skynard

    Would of been better to short this rip, seen /CC missed that boat.

  • newbfxtrader

    We should go long on a retest. it will probably come back to retest the breakout levels.

  • Skynard

    Yes, it is way over extended. Check out /HG here, same thing. Just been following the Aussie lately, it’s been giving me good indication.

  • newbfxtrader

    China play. Manufacturing PMI steadily deteriorating. Need a Chinese stimulus!

  • Skynard

    Added /HG

  • Skynard

    Aussie falling off the plate:) My target is 100sma currently at 1.016.

  • newbfxtrader

    Retail sales came in bad.

  • Skynard

    Will be taking profit on AUDJPY 80.1 (38.2) and going long. if that does not hold right now next stop 79.

  • newbfxtrader

    HSBC data in one hour. You can go long then.

  • Skynard

    Not to far from trading Forex 100% right now. Fuck these futures! That’s where the real coin is:)

  • newbfxtrader

    lol. Put some cad shorts on. We can book in a couple weeks from now.

  • Skynard

    LOL, good place to take profit. Think I’ll flip it.

  • newbfxtrader

    With the margin you need for one /cl position you could open three or more /6c shorts!

  • Skynard

    Ya, no shit. Not even worth it. That is where I’m at right now. Should be easy to say good bye to that.

  • Skynard

    If that 80.1 is taken out this could get ugly.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • thepercolator

    Just thought I’d check-in with Evil and I’m not disappointed as Sky, Newb and of course Darth are holding fort – good job guys!

    Longer time frame set-ups:

    /ZW IM
    /ZM IM
    /ZO IM
    /HE IW
    /HG IW
    /PL IW
    /OJ IW (Be careful w/this one cuz OJ is in serious backwardation and contract roll happens this month)

    Shorter time frame set-ups:

    /ZSZ ID
    /ZMZ ID
    /RRX ID
    /SBV RVB

    All the above markets are closed until at least manana save /PL & /HG.

    Since I mostly trade the Ags & individual stocks I’m out of here til tomorrow night – time to play some poker.  Wishing every rat a most enjoyable Labor Day!

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yj3DBcpfMNQ
    what I saw the aud/usd compared to gbp/usd…Yes I still have my position in the position but aud/usd fell nicely…YOu see original planning is key..

  • Skynard

    Yep, went short on her again. Just can not get the job done on this holiday bull. Here is another reason:)

  • AMCabrera

    eur/jpy is swirling towards the event horizon.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    euro is flat lining…

    I think it goes higher..but may get the spike down first..buy on weakness..or on break through resistanceAUD rate decision tonight/tomorrow morning; think it is also a BUY on weakness..but prefer Euro.

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY could have a problem if this level lost, maybe sucking in some bears for a move now.

  • MinimumProfile

    Newb question on Cable setup: “Mostly looking out for a long breach here. Once she’ll clear the NLBL I think it’s going to be golden”….does that mean close above NLBL or just a breach?…thanks.

  • AMCabrera

    The forex is awesome. I never understood why many gave spot forex a bad reputation. Im sure futures brokers do not want many to see the obvious.

  • amokta

     Ok, what happened?