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Gyrations Galore
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Gyrations Galore

by The MoleJuly 17, 2012

Alright, I’m short time (and patience) and long setups today – thus let’s dispense with any clever opinons on the FOMC announcements today and instead delve into our charts:

Although she was running like a hare today the spoos have finally settled above the NLBL. Next hurdle ahead: the 100-day SMA, which if conquered should start acting like support if I have anything to say about it. Unfortunately I don’t. Honorable mention of the day – the Mole signals – boy, the have been golden today. Seems like they like emotional whipsaw days and shun high probability trend days – definitely a worthwhile observation.

Ole bucky meanwhile has dropped below its 100-hour SMA but is still clinging above that daily NLSL. I’m watching this one intently and I propose you do too.

The Nursery:

Copper is certainly moving in the right direction. We did get a really clean entry there – wish it was always that easy. I would move my stop down a bit and wait for a touch of our target area near 3.4125.

Crude gave us two technical entries and appears to be out of the danger zone. Let’s not get comfortable though and set our stop below that NLBL – I still want to see that upper 25-day BB cleared and it’s off to the races.

On to the good stuff – please step into my lair:
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More charts and cynical commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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Sugar – well, it’s being a bit difficult here. Not sure if you guys took the previous entry or got whipsawed out. But it’s good to see another inside day + NR4 combo which may lead us out of this sideways zone. Yes, if you are in a trade use this setup to validate or disqualify your position.

USD/CHF looking a bit like ole bucky – below the 100-hour SMA and battling its NLBL. Same idea here in terms of a tradeable setup.

NZD/USD – not imminent and we’ll probably mention it in the future. But I see a possible break out here at the 100-day SMA. So watch for that – even better set yourself an alert if your trading platform allows for that. Of course until it breaches it’s a good short with a cheap stop nearby.

EUR/CAD appears to be in the process of forming a floor – it has not even come close to a NLBL lately. I would watch out for a breach here. Not terribly interested in a short continuation right now.

Ditto on the EUR/USD – similar idea and setup.

CAD/JPY – inside day + NR4 combo. I know this does not look like a the most delicious setup we’ve ever seen. But we may be coiling up here for a big move especially if we brach that NLBL just above the ID trigger point.

That ought to keep you guys busy for a while 😉

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Darth_Gerb

    Yahoo! Finds Its Unicorn in New CEO Pick Marissa Mayer
    any relation Fibz?
    😉

  • amokta

    She worked at google, so maybe she can help
    However, the source web-index yahoo uses is bings

  • Fibz

    I think they’re on to me.

  • amokta

    Where is ‘buy the dip’ amygdala7 these days ?

  • Skynard

    How about that /ZS, long way down. Hehehe:)

  • Tronacate

    Shorted when I closed my long at 16………very green

  • Tronacate

    flat zs……l gold, short ZB and DX

  • Tronacate

    Wish gold would get on the stick……lagging

  • AMCabrera

    setting b/e ONCE again on EUR/USD.

  • BobbyLow

    If Price Holds, it looks like I’ll add the final 1/4 Long Position of Crude at COB today.  

    My first Buy Point was when CL closed at 80.52 on 6/27 and from there I built a full position in 2 more stages before price went into a circle jerk.   With Capital Preservation in mind, I then trimmed my position back in two stages to wind up with 1/4 in size.   Since then, I have gradually rebuilt my position and should be back to full size today.  

    My stop which would only be exercised at a close has been raised along the way.  These types of Swing Trades can lack instant gratification and are probably boring to some here.  However, they can pay off quite handsomely if and when we get a trend that stays in place for a few days.   In any event I only want to date this position for a while and not be married to it.  :)

    http://screencast.com/t/TadCR69k0eHU 

  • Skynard

    Well done, still in the red but think it is just starting:)

  • Skynard

    One thing to remember, the TDA!

  • Tronacate

    Has to be…….imo…….but it’ll try to shake you every which way……..look at that bs candle at the close

  • ridingwaves

    Peregrine founder spent most of missing money: WSJ
    How do you spend 250 million….how many blue cheese stuffed olive belvedere martini’s can you drink with your mistress

  • Fibz

    Maybe he bought a couple hundred Patek Philippe tourbillons.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Maybe he bought her a $1Mill bra, one for every day of the year.

    http://www.instablogsimages.com/1/2012/07/13/1_million_gold_bra_image_title_wll3a.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    Maybe he “invested” everything in VXX

  • Schwerepunkt

    Probably eats vark sandwiches.

  • Darth_Gerb

    *Market Closed*

  • ridingwaves

    good answers..I’m thinking he hooked up with McCartneys ex…
    someone did a calculation on a 5K mistress 5 nights a week for Paul, he would have come out ahead by 32 million

  • Joe_Jones

    Wow, what a day. Now that QE expectation are off the table, I wonder what MSM will invent to ramp this turd higher.

  • MidLife

     I’m not sure is is ever ‘off the table’. The bearded one like batman can be called during times of distress.

  • Joe_Jones

    I didn’t say ever. Distress is indeed the key word here, and right now there is none.

  • Fibz

    *cough* saudi arabia vs. iran.

  • AMCabrera

    AUD/USD looks like a dangerous freight train.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    Talk about shake and bake, look at EURUSD past few days. Long heavily right now in anticipation of a substantial move coming.

  • Skynard

    Just stopped out of AUDJPY, not going to short it. Will wait for a better entry.

  • AMCabrera

    LOL. I really mean it though it looks dangerous to even think about shorting.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Now that is algebra we all can embrace!

  • Fibz

    oh yeah?

  • Darth_Gerb

    4 turns in four weeks?
    I’m as green as the Grinch. (seasick)
    [BPSPX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p89755893822 

  • Skynard

    Wow! All those fireworks and nada?

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/6fac828d-1266-4c30-91e7-c3cb7f79f183/2012-07-17_1833.png
    Im just saying. IMO this will be very painful for those trying short. I for one will be buying here with a 50 pip stop loss. It looks to delicious not to try a long. Also, Fibz look at the indicator ,what good was the divergence between May and June.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    AUDJPY does not look bullish to me.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/598a5077-eeea-41ea-8648-e557033a5655/2012-07-17_1841.png
    @itcomesupinwaves mmm I wouldn’t say that rather it looks ripe for the taking. Im just sorry everything seems to perfect to rip more to the upside.

  • AMCabrera
  • Joe_Jones

    Consistent with a complex upward correction if you ask me

  • Joe_Jones

    I agree with you AMC. Today was a great opportunity to bring the market down. However that didn’t happened and we rallied instead without a break. Bucky looks like it lost its upward momentum, and after breaching last week high SPX looks like it is ready to retest its high for 2012. Unless we fall hard tomorrow, I’ll be wearing my bull hat and will go with the trend.

  • AMCabrera

    That is my opinion as well. “SPX looks like it is ready to retest its high for 2012.”

  • Darth_Gerb
  • itcomesupinwaves

     That’s interesting, it looked like selling was outweighing but I guess I’m reading it wrong.  Thanks for your insight, appreciate that.

  • Skynard

    Just enough to trigger some stops, huh.

  • Skynard

    Looking like some snap-back from Bucky here with some div on the hourly.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/de6b0b53-ca4c-404e-85c4-cc17cb1f4fc2/2012-07-18_0408.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/1e0b0775-2d97-4fe1-b4df-d1d9dd40f6d2/2012-07-18_0410.png
    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/e598be4d-1055-4b3a-b61b-b53a0511533f/2012-07-18_0410.png
    Of course as you know I like looking at cumulative charts. Here is the newest one for today monthly, weekly, and daily. In all honestly it has been a pretty even battle and will more than likely continue to be so, but the montlhy chart is what is keeping me from thinking risk on is not off the table just yet.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/b5dce43c-e2df-4782-8a05-2aba5f23d1ba/2012-07-18_0414.png
    I think it is important to mention this too. DA pair seems to have stabilized. Big waring for those who are itching to go short IMO.  

  • AMCabrera

    same thing. Half profits were taken at 1.2300 and Im about to get popped at 1.2230.

  • AMCabrera

    popped. So Ill stick two new buy orders for EUR/USD one at 1.2250 and 1.2200

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    FTSE tracing out a bull flag?

  • Skynard

    Got the pop, short /DX again. Ah, 12 pips lower on AUDJPY.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    Feels like some more shaking of the tree to scare the longs ..

    in a way it’s good to feel uneasy being long…

  • newbfxtrader

    Adding to /ZS?

  • Skynard

    /ZS & /ZC are like brothers:) Looking good!

  • Skynard

    Watch for 85-87.5 re-test.

  • AMCabrera

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n6RTF4OPzf8
    really again? Ok dropping buy order to 1.2230 one more time. I mean I could care less Ill take half profit again at 1.2300

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    third time might break higher…if it gets there.

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Long the /ES now:)

  • Skynard

    Here we go! Love this shit:)

  • Darth_Gerb

    many on this forum have called you a machine
    perhaps now we have a clue!
    😉

    http://curryindustries.com/images/compost_cover.jpg 

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Kick off! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Skynard is an evil trading robot from the future who acquired a virus laden firmware and escaped into the past. We all have to live with the consequences today.

  • Skynard

    LOL! Smoke em’ if you got em’!

  • Skynard

    Whoot, Whoot!

  • AMCabrera

    ok…setting break-even again for eur/usd AT 1.2230 and setting break-even on the AUD/USD at 1.0300. And yes I still have a position in the USD/NOK.

  • Skynard

    Taking profit at 1360, not waiting this time:)

  • AMCabrera
  • Skynard

    Stoped out +7, now short 1/2 pos:)

  • Skynard

    ZL not playing around this morning, will flip long on a VWAP test:)

  • Skynard

    Any TDA?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Got it

  • Skynard

    Close enough flipped long and ate a few pts.

  • Skynard

    Yep, good to go:)

  • Skynard

    MM’s looking for a new high:)

  • Joe_Jones

    AUDJPY seems to tell us something is not right 

  • AMCabrera

    AUD/USD making it hurt. 😉

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Is there ever….

  • Fearless

    We could be closing in on a mega top in the bond market. My thesis since September of 2011 has been that the liquidity required to drive prices higher will come from the bond market (there are bag holders in every market, just a matter of timing).

    For those who claim that new recovery highs cannot be accomplished unless there is QE3, please refer to the chart from October 2011 to April 2012. There was no QE. Please also take a look at the chart I posted a couple of weeks ago on the TLT:TIP ratio. Like I said, I believe we’re closing in on a mega top in the bond market. If you are obsessed with shorting (you know who you are), I suggest that you look in that direction instead of equities for now (until the 200 day SMA is taken).

  • Skynard

    Waiting for this div on the 5min to play out, new high or not gana short /ES:)

  • Joe_Jones

    from October 2011 to April 2012, liquidity was provided by the ECB

  • Joe_Jones

    Nice bio description, LOL! 😉

  • Joe_Jones

    ? I must be missing something

  • Fibz

    Still plenty of room for bonds to go higher IMO.

  • ridingwaves

    Wasn’t Twist in play also? Along with dollar swaps, paying .25% on reserves and 0% rates?

  • BobbyLow

    A couple of years ago I would have disagreed with you as my perma-bear attitude would have taken over.  Not anymore.

    All being a perma-bear got me was almost broke.  Your scenario is very possible.  Anything is possible.  

    Above all, none of it has to make any sense in any conventional way so I’ll just try to go where the tape goes and not over think it.   :)

  • Fearless

    There’s a bit of room, but the 10 year yield shouldn’t get lower than 1.37%, or the TLT:TIP ratio shouldn’t get above 1.08

    Hence, not going to short bonds right away, but if it does indeed touch the trendline, then yes. Otherwise, wait for a confirmed break of bond uptrend before heavy shorting.

  • Joe_Jones

    I think so. Different lipstick on the same pig.

  • Fearless

    Yeah, you have to suffer a heavy loss or a heavy wound to learn good lessons. I got my big whack in July 2009. I’ve improved substantially ever since.

    Edit: This is a reply to BobbyLow.

  • Joe_Jones

    Jeez, just when I start to get bullish the market decides to stall and reverse. Talk about being a contrarian indicator. I must have “smuck” written all over my forehead. 

  • Skynard

    Been there like you say, lost half of my holdings. Consider myself fortunate!

  • MrMargin

    VIX now at the levels last seen around May. BBs are starting to slope down, but I’m not sure how much lower this thing can go, before we see at least another short term correction.

  • Fibz

    I’ll often think about how many “stable” 401K funds are allocated in a 1:1 ratio REITs and long dated treasuries. REITs obviously aren’t going up, so…

  • Darth_Gerb

    50% draw-down?
    now that’s a story worthy of several paragraphs.

    such a man of few words!

  • Skynard

    Actually, writing a book:)

  • Skynard

    She’s gana run:)

  • Darth_Gerb

    higher?

  • Skynard

    Wait for it, div not complete.

  • ridingwaves

    whats really amazing is people are putting money into a 10 yr tip and getting a negative return at the end of the term just to play it safe…

  • Skynard

    Out of /ES long, Short now:)

    Edit: trimmed most longs in half with the exception of /SI & /GC. Do not like VIX up right now.

  • Darth_Gerb

    Today should end the disturbance in the Force.
    [SPX/TLT] intraday
    http://s10.postimage.org/fg7wvpazr/temp1.png

  • Fibz

    Just browsing Trulia… “Today’s local listings: 215 total listings, 40 price reductions.” LOL

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Schwerepunkt

    Been away since the open. What happened? Time to watch VIX — getting pretty low. Will be hard for it to get much below 15.

  • Darth_Gerb
  • Skynard

    That wedgie on the 5 min looks bearish as hell!

  • Darth_Gerb

    one more pop to 1371 (ES).
    come on babeee.

  • Darth_Gerb

    nothing like a little heart stopper to clear out below.

    http://s7.postimage.org/pl17959gp/temp3.png

  • Joe_Jones

    WTF? Is that for real?

  • Darth_Gerb

    real enough to get a screen shot, but no.

  • AMCabrera

    taking profit from AUD/USD. 

  • ridingwaves

    funny statement of the day 
    Goldman’s Blankfein: Libor issue undermines system 

    it must be tough doing god’s work…hmmm, I mean the devils work…

  • bdoone

    Why did he say that? Because GS didn’t make any $$$ off it?–sarcasm

  • Schwerepunkt

    Market flatline . . . which way now?

  • Skynard

    Given the TDA, possible VWAP tester/teaser;)

  • Tronacate

    ZS might be breaking out of consolidation to new highs

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Well, it was only moderate – be vigilant.

  • Skynard

    Seen that, what do ya think. Stop run or blast-off? See what happens by EOD to make a decision. Crops have been savaged by the heat but WTF!