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Hail Mary Setups
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Hail Mary Setups

by The MoleApril 27, 2017

Draghi is busy kicking the Euro all over the place right now and posting setups in a volatile situation prior to the open isn’t exactly my favorite pastime. Plus I’m currently considering seppuku as I’m watching my favorable exchange rate slowly swirl the big forex toilet bowl.

2017-04-27_EURUSD

Not looking so hot there for EUR bears or expat bloggers in Spain as an explosion higher is a definite possibility. I was tempted to grab a long position right there about 8:22am EDT but wanted to wait out Draghi’s comments. Since then it’s punched higher hard and there may not be any catching it (sorry). If it comes back down however I would feel very tempted to take out a Hail Mary long position with a stop below ~1.082. A drop through that and we’re getting a gap fill.

Although the signs are all pointing up I am however not too confident about further upside without at least an obligatory last kiss goodbye of the upper 100-day Bollinger and perhaps even a gap fill. Yes, currency pairs have a tendency to relentlessly squeeze participants gut grabbing a seat near the break out point is always a bit of a Hail Mary pass. So if you decide to jump in make sure you keep your position size small.

2017-04-27_spoos

Similar situation on the E-Mini by the way.Β It did briefly push above that weekly NLBL at 2387.75 which you may recall is our bullish/bearish inflection point. So it may be worthwhile watching the tape today and tomorrow and if we’re seeing a divergence and little buying interest then a Hail Mary short position is in order. However if it quickly drops to its 100-hour SMA and hangs around there then more upside are most likely. So yes, we’ll need a bit of finesse navigating this beast – this tape is not for the faint hearted.

Bottom Line
  • No action here right now.
  • Long on a quick drop toward the 100-hour SMA near ES 2375 IF the Zero shows relative strength.
  • Short if we creep around the 2385 mark with little appetite to take it higher. A divergent Zero signal sometime today or tomorrow would seal the deal.

Once again – both setups are Hail Mary passes which could easily get whipsawed. Be prepared for that and don’t get sucked into overtrading.

Updates

2017-04-27_soybeans_update

Our soybeans campaign is looking sickly and I very much tempted to take it off. Which is exactly why I won’t touch it and let it run its course. Mitgehangen mitgefangen (look it up).

2017-04-27_copper_update

Copper a little better but not stellar given the current Dollar weakness. It’s however doing a hell lot better than crude right now so I should probably just shut up about it. In general the continuous series of higher highs and higher lows is positive and a break out could be in the making very shortly, especially now that we’ve rolled into the July contract.

No other setups for the moment. Things are a bit unhinged right now and we’re seeing strong pushes in various directions, e.g. crude, silver, gold down – dollar down – yen down – euro up – equities up – bonds down. I guess everyone’s jazzed about France and Macron but if you ask me something’s not smelling right here.

2017-04-27_VIX_below_11

But then again I’m probably just being paranoid. I mean what’s the worst that could happen right? Draghi just said Europe is A-okay and it’s smooth cruising from here.

what_me_worry


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BTrader

    2386 is also Upper Band on the daily chart…interesting spot on ES here for a nice move either way.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Agreed.

  • Mark Shinnick

    I’m still short, expecting some sort of downside akin to 2nd day type behavior.

  • Tomcat

    I am long $DX here.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Chart?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes, I can see exactly why, near signal for myself very tight stop.

  • Tomcat

    Sorry no chart, this is a long term bet on Trump’s pro-dollar agenda. All the “fencing” of US and war mongering, are very bullish for the dollar. Flight to safety type of thing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I bloody hope you’re right Tomcat :-)

  • Tomcat

    Add to that Fed tapering and then, the dollar bet becomes safer IMO.
    Oil is also heading to my target of low 40s at which point I need to take profit. Needless to say, Trump (with his pro-shale/drilling) is helping me there too.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    what could possibly go wrong?
    πŸ˜‰

    https://assets.mubi.com/images/film/45835/image-w448.jpg

  • Phillip Reeder

    either breaks above 86 with strength and pullback for a long, or this is the end of the road it seems fr today?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Today seems like a what everyone wants, nobody gets. Short is so obvious its not, longs don’t want to miss out on a bargain buy….so I’m flat.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Long /HG @ $2.5745

  • Tomcat

    Dems talking the tape down. What a joke. Both these parties should be thrown out of office.

  • Mark Shinnick

    They reflect perfectly the state of the Union, I’m afraid; We are a fractured country with nothing like the cohesion, planning and cunning like China, which BTW has encompassed Hawaii on its official owned territories govt. map.

  • Tomcat

    I cringe with any comparison to the communist state, but agree that on some aspects they are better.

  • Mary

    In a nation where about 80% of the people are economic illiterates it should be expected that 80% of our directly elected representatives are also economic illiterates. This applies to both parties.

    When someone runs and/or is elected that has economic sense and experience they are vilified in the media, academia, and the entertainment industry.

    The problem is the electorate, not their representatives.

  • Mary

    I didn’t even take into account the dead people that vote and the bums that get bussed around to vote multiple times.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Mary

    right back at Mole’s inflection point … again.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…again. It’s bizarre (seems to me) but my buy on some May vrx 11 calls got filled exactly at my local support. Geez..who’s a buyer of vrx??

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Funny how that goes πŸ˜‰

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    @@molecool:disqus The formation on /HG daily chart looks like Scott’s short set-up mentioned in the post below doesn’t it?

    http://evilspeculator.com/lessons-in-price-action-one-shot-one-kill/

    But I use a 240 min chart which looks like a good long entry. My question is how do you go about not over analyzing the trade?

    If you see conflicting long/short reads at different time frames do you not take the trade? Or maybe just adjust the exit for the shorter term trade accordingly?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    You are talking about a retest variation buy/sell?

  • Trouzzer_Snake

    Yes. That trade would have a stop above yesterdays high so in theory is still active.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ff40c9389f5d34a9ef712c92c2329b8f08e1d32e1719e89457d83c5212a1759e.png

  • Mark Shinnick

    Does all hell break loose around 2390 ?

  • Trouzzer_Snake
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    They are dark charts so they must be good! πŸ˜‰

    Sure, it’s actually double RTV and the odds are good. But so is the failure so you may actually flip into a reversal if stopped out.

  • BTrader

    The 2387.75 been an issue for the bulls so far. Overnight gap is a solution if they go for it.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…hey “earnings don’t matter”.

  • Tomcat

    all big tech beating massively…this will not end well

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…beating what the marketeers themselves set….what a scam. Then there are very few that profitable in the first place.

  • Tomcat

    wouldn’t that be something if TOP is AMZN & GOOGL @$1000???

  • Mark Shinnick

    Weirder market things have really happened…always amazing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes, human sacrifice, cats and dogs living together, mass hysteria.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmzuRXLzqKk

  • Mark Shinnick

    LOL, yes. Ever wonder what it be like to actually live through a Tulip Mania scenario?.

  • Scott Phillips

    Actually it’s an optical illusion, the red close 4 bars from the low is not a lower low, and the final one is more than the “5 bars and no more counting back to the spike low” condition.

    But yes, in principle, it looks like quite a convincing bottom being formed. I was tempted to bend the rules and take it anyway a few days ago

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Couldn’t be much worse than the social justice mania right now. I’d take overpriced tulips over fascist political correctness any day.

  • Scott Phillips

    I would strongly discourage any but the very best traders from entering into this sort of thinking.

    The problem is not if you are right or wrong (your thesis is probably better than 50% chance of being true) it is that you are IMPLICITLY trying to win this trade, which means delusion and weird thinking creeping in.

    The way forward is to develop a set of rules, and follow those rules.

    In the history of evilspeculator, NOBODY has ever become profitable with a “I think this will happen, therefore I’m long that” approach.

    Maybe you will be the first !

  • ZigZag

    Check out the weekly /nq chart – don’t see too many like that.

  • kim
  • kim

    It’s probably fake or sth….

  • Tomcat

    When I was a fighter, being first was everything.
    Now, that I older, could care less about being first. As long as I make an acceptable return, is all I care about.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Scott Phillips

    You *say* you just care about the $$ and not about being right, but you explicitly choose a mode of trading which is “all about being right”

    When someone says one thing, and does another, which to believe?