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Hamburger Hill
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Hamburger Hill

by The MoleAugust 3, 2009

The bulls are happy now as the coveted 1000 line has finally been conquered – it took quite a bit of pushing and twisting and they threw everything at it they had:

Okay, the bulls have it – so NOW WHAT?

A lot of air below – just saying….

10:48am EDT: As some of the rats already pointed out – there is a ‘cognitive dissonance’ between the DJI/SPX and the RUT/NDX in that they have not painted new hights this morning:

Question is – are you guys ready to load up on puts here? I have gotten my dick slammed in the door so often now I’m starting to like it :-)

12:30pm EDT: Why we wait for this tape to pick a direction – here’s the chart of the day:

Sure, it’s a new bull market – uuhuuuhhh… Related reading – very good paper. And while we’re at it – as you know I’ve been all over the TOMO/POMO stuff for months now – excellent paper here on that subject and its effects on the recent finger of God in equities.

12:48pm EDT: Quote of the day:

Loosely said, ‘normal’ is a long way off. The market can continue to misjudge the future and go higher in the short term, without contradicting the state of decay the economy is in. — Adam Steinberg / Macro Research

Exactly right – a basic definition of what I expected to happen in Primary wave {2} back in early March (also see last night’s post).


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • TonyMontana

    Let's hope so Mole…..this is getting freaking ridiculous!

  • Me_XMan

    Should have DRUNKEN MASTER on. Bullss on drinking binge!

  • Bankrupt

    lots of air, but unfortunately bulls have learnt to fly =(

    my take is that we should sell…

  • Me_XMan

    I don't see any turnaround point today unless US$ spiking up.
    US$ is still crapping out.

  • fuw

    yeah, that graph is insane. One big extended finger to all the bears.

  • Me_XMan

    Bulls in and out 1000 like a lube job. No resistance at all.

  • molecool

    Yes, the buck is what to watch. Silver also popped higher.

  • molecool

    Indeed…

  • Bankrupt

    actually I expected the bull case to be more firm as there was powerful support just below SPX 1000. that and nasdaq relative weakness (not to mention overbought condition) gives some hope to bears still

    considering today is first trading day of august, maybe the action wasn't that bad from bear standing point. but I am worried that HFT will push this a bit higher. a close above 1000 would make a nice headline

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    added SEPT IWM puts here. The bonds are breaking but the one red flag I have is the YEN which is actually holding up quite well today for some reason. Might be the red flag for the bulls IMO….

  • mrBozo

    The Bulls will soon be reminded of Aryabhata's greatest discovery: the concept of zero.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    closed 1/2 /nq 2150 short, so far running 15 points profit per contract – 3 short trade on /nq

  • fuw

    By the way; whats up with the green/red dots above candles in the zero when there is no signal? I thought that they only occurred together with a trade signal. Have I missed something?

  • Bankrupt

    however, euro is as flawed as the dollar if not more. some european countries have accumulated ridicolus debt. if not for germany, euro would be toast.

    of course, fundamental view doesn't count much these days.

  • Douala

    LOL…….. that was tooooooo funny. +1 For the clown!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    can we reverse split 0?

  • Bankrupt

    I could never understand why Spaniards want to kill bulls for fun.

    Now I do.

  • Keirsten

    Good morning Rats. Please direct your attention to the weekly chart on RIMM and observe the impending death cross. Also, keep a close eye on QCOM for further clues.

    I show 100.86 as horizontal resistance on SPY

    I'm still half asleep from flying coast to coast yesterday, but I'm almost glad I am! 😀

    Basil- always love your updates btw. :-)

  • rhae

    SPY intraday… between Me and Einstien we figure it should peter out just before noon if not sooner… In case I am wrong I can always blame the other guy…
    SPY measured move http://screencast.com/t/XyRKfX4mik

  • YOGI

    Bought a bunch of PAAS puts…..silver momo stock and now back to praying…only thing that works,,,,,,,,,,,did you get some puts on silver mole….yet?

  • zenith191

    “Question is – are you guys ready to load up on puts here? I have gotten my dick slammed in the door so often now I’m starting to like it”

    LOL. Me too. And yes I am loading up on more puts. Afterall, pain is so close to pleasure.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    setting stop for 2nd 1/2 /nq short at be 1621.5 – that will still put me in 13-14 points profit for today, lunch time
    holding /dx – position trade, might close if not able to close above 77.85
    vix up

  • PRSGuitars

    Awesome trading David! I'm impressed — you're one of several on this board I really admire for planning the trade and trading the plan (cheesy, but accurate…)

    Still scaling into puts (though re-thinking my Aug 99s…jeez, ITM, ATM, now OTM. Barf.) but actively hedging long with some /es (would've been up much more had it not been for my stupidity in getting stopped out of 2 long /es @ 984 not 5 minutes prior to the breakout overnight…)

  • rhae

    That makes 3 of us… You me and Einstien, see chart just above

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Your avatar literally scares the snot outta me.

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Rae. I was doing charts on a flight stop last night on the laptop, but battery went dead on me.

    Mr. Bozo- you're a breath of fresh air btw.

  • ablebonus

    FCX – with the overnight gap up it is breaking out of a cup and handle on the daily 1 year. (XLF and BAC and others also breaking out on the dailys.) Does the gap over the resistance point make the breakout less meaningful?

    Also on FCX, from 9/26/08 this whole think looks like a bullish island reversal.

  • LegendC

    Bought my puts a half hour too early, would have been a nice trade already.

    Also, just got laid off today, go short WY

  • Keirsten

    Probably not. They've gapped over so many key levels in just the past two weeks, it's not even funny.

  • marcT

    Hi Keirsten!

    How are you? What do you mean by the impending death cross? Can you please provide a graph? Thank you!

    I'm currently short RIMM with a stop one tick above the minor swing high.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    cubes poss tgt 39-39.2 W3 down (for as long as it is not above 39.97 wave count will not change)
    off to lunch – made few $ for “It is thinking of itself as Big American Mac”

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I have a friend who works for WY. Great company but tough times.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I have a friend who works for WY. Great company but tough times.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Just got off the phone with GS.They said they are going to start selling stocks this afternoon.

  • LegendC

    Word, we don't expect to be profitable again until 2013. Hope it lasts that long. Green shoots my ass.

  • DeBauche

    Interesting to note that major divergence between full stochastics and price on the four indexes.

  • Keirsten

    I'm not even awake yet- just walking in my sleep Marc. Pull up a weekly chart on RIMM, make sure you have a 50 and 200 SMA on the chart, and note the 50 going down and under the 200. That is a technical death cross. G/L with your trade my friend. :-)

  • http://www.actionpointsta.com StonerRock68

    Mole,

    What chart package do you use? Me likes how they look.

    Thanks

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Sorry to here that.

    My father-in-law got laid of by WY a couple of years ago. He worked at the Wright City, OK sawmill for about 35 years. They have completely shut the plant down now and recently sold their paper mill in the area as well.

    But at least the economy is going gang busters now and the messiah has saved the day. DOW 11500 here we come by months end!!!

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I'm short RIMM big time….Short from 76.10…MAy the forces of evil not get confused to the way to there house. lol

  • Me_XMan

    Just got off the phone with Greenspan and he said to go ALL IN!!!
    SPX 1040 is coming.

  • molecool

    Finally an avatar that befits this blog :-)

  • Keirsten

    I'm with ya Big. Let's roll this puppy! :-)

  • ropey

    maybe but not before a small pullback, nas is not showing much strength here, s&p going to follow..then will go long again…

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Tell me something, am I the only one that thinks that all the pumps in overnight futures and opening gaps are only there to scr*w any meaningful EW reading?

    You're not paranoid if people are really after you

  • ropey

    me smell a gap fill coming either today or tomorrow..

  • Keirsten

    Not only that, but he has an extremely devious and evil mind. He's a keeper Mole.

  • molecool

    Just got off the phone with mom – she tells me to stop whining, go out there and find a real job.

  • molecool

    Uhhhhmmmm – NOPE!

  • Scrillhog

    Mole not sure if you saw my comment from last night… Seeing as how you have read Way of the Turtle, what do you think of using the Donchian breakouts and crossover trading?

  • amokta

    complete joke (for me to have listened to bears and stayed in cash). some elliott-wavers seem to be backtracking : http://safehaven.com/article-14090.htm ?

  • Basilfawlty

    Thanks.

  • Keirsten

    Are you waiting until the funds let the money pour in this week before getting short?

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    Thanks for the tidbit. I agree about these 'green shoots' we're supposedly seeing.

    I know what it's like to be layed off in this environment. Before leaving the trading desk I was layed off twice in the last two years.

  • Bankrupt

    yeah, you were really stupid

    but hey, its never too late

  • GDII

    just got off the phone with Barrack. he said “can we fix it? yes we can.”

  • Scrillhog

    With ya on RIMM..

  • Bankrupt

    kudlow: I think this is new bull market

    ok, that's top, now we can be sure

  • BrassMonkyBalls

    Mr. Blutarski!… ZERO POINT ZERO….

  • PRSGuitars

    I'm with you buddy — slowly scaling into puts to skim the top (filled a few Aug 99 SPYs at 1.65-1.75 earlier today — phew! scary).

    What are you playing if you dont mind me asking? And killer avatar, btw…

    I'll be spreading these against 96 puts (augs) short when we get the first good turning point after a drop (i suspect 980 or so).

  • molecool

    Yes, someone is always backtracking – most analysts unfortunately are horrible traders.

  • LegendC

    We've divested like 23's of the company in the last 3 years, Fine Paper became Domtar and containerboard, packaging and recycling went to International Paper. Now our business is 100% leveraged to the housing market, either building them outright or selling the lumber for them. Bad times indeed.

  • fuw

    repost

    Mole, whats up with the green/red dots above candles in the zero when there is no signal? I thought that they only occurred together with a trade signal. Have I missed something?

  • Basilfawlty

    The SPX (S&P 500) has gained 50% over the past 4 months.
    It is interesting that several people/ “Bears” who were expecting a significant pullback over the past 2-3 weeks are now expecting more upside.

    In my opinion, this is not a good time to be expecting significant upside in the General Equity Markets.
    As previously stated, I am expecting a pullback, most probably starting this week.

    8/3/2009 (today) +/-2 days is a Gann turn date(if Market low was 3/6/2009)
    8/8/2009 +/- 2 days is a Gann turn date (if Market low was 3/9/2009)

    The next significant key FIB price symmetry levels are SPX 1010-1014.

    I plan to start scaling into SPY puts very soon.
    If the SPX should reach 1010 -1014, I intend to be significantly short.

    Please do you own due diligence.

    Good luck.

  • Iguanadon

    He's been saying that since… always… even as we went from 1500 to 670… He's just a man ahead of his time. He'll be right. Eventually. And there won't be a recession in 2008.

  • http://misinheritance.com/ misinheritance

    This Primary 2 tape is a disaster. We rally from 3am-6:40am, right before everyone on the East coast wakes up. We go sideways and then drop lower right at 9:30AM, just to explode higher, including that 10AM candle where we shot up 4.5 points in 1 minute. Just 1 more month of this crap and September will return, hopefully with some nice volatility.

  • Basilfawlty

    Kiersten:

    Please see my post above.

  • amokta

    made some reasonable profit upto end june, then stayed in cash – perhaps as folks say, trade the tape as it unfolds, not what you wish for

  • shortcover

    right…he was in denial in 2007 heavy…when the stars started to align, then in 2008 he put his head in the sand until we were off a cliff- then all he wanted was hand outs and gvt help to stop the bleeding so we could get back on course. i can't watch that guy for more than 5 min at a time before i have to turn the channel…

  • Keirsten

    Thanks Basil. I have the Gann wheel sitting right here, so I've been watching that 120 degree mark. 😉

  • annamall

    hahahaha if my dad hadn't been a trader, my mom would have said the same thing mole! :)

  • fa_q

    My 998 order got filled this morning and I'm now at a 1/2 position at 996 basis. Orders at 1005 and 1010 to get filled up. As I wrote yesterday, the NQ and TF are lagging and that's where most of my ammo is this morning but I'll keep posting my ES trades here for shits and giggles.

  • fuw

    The dollar index has officially touched down on the December low (earlier resistance/support). Lets see if it can turn here. Nothing indicating it so far though.

  • Iguanadon

    You have a stronger stomach than me. I got to the point that as soon as I heard “And coming up is Larry Kudlow…” I turned the TV off, unplugged it and crawled into my closet just as a precaution.

  • Me_XMan

    I like your thinking and will follow you.

  • ckeltner

    Thanks

  • annamall

    Juat my thoughts, The bulls are not going to let go of that coveted 1000 mark too easily! So today IMHO would not be a good day to go too short.
    I closed out USO calls and trying to close SNP calls (China is smoking crack

    I do have SPY puts and ISRG MA put spreads (getting hit on those) but since I had so many longs yet, I am doing just great today. Enough to pay for the humongus vet bill for Carmela!

  • Iguanadon

    I didn't think it was possible but volume looks lower yet again… or are my old, weary eyes deceiving me?

  • Stainless_Steel_Hamster

    Thanks

    How about a comment about my doubt about the bottom of 3 at 741 and an expande 4 to now or to 1195? I understand that a low on 666 would give a beautiful 2,61 vs a wave 1 from 2007 to the march 2008 lows, nevertheless…

  • Me_XMan

    From $DXY it would go as low as 76 to find support there.
    SPX 1014 is a sure thing now.
    US$ is still tanking.

  • Lordted

    Hi Basil

    1010 is 168.2 Extension from June high to July low. So I guess you're spot on… Everyone looking for a pull back – this thing hasn't given a big enough pull back since it launched on 6th March.

    See you at 1010

  • fuw

    yeah, I also have 76-77.7 as support/chop zone. i doubt that the USD will turn on a dime here.

  • itsgold

    buying more puts on AMR and DAL. I think 1 or 2 points may come off in the coming weeks.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    are you sure you want to do what he does and short dollar?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    :( that is what my entire family keeps telling me for years now – they hate that I am home!

  • Keirsten

    CIT on a tear

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    come on – he is just a whore – why would anyone bother listening to him and likes

  • marcT

    Hi Keirsten,

    Oh a bearish SMA crossover! LOL! Don't know the slangs yet hahaha!

    Thanks! Good luck to you too!

  • Iguanadon

    A very nice overview. Worded much better than my usual rants….

    http://www.stocktiming.com/Monday-DailyMarketUp

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    SPX – TDST 1001.84
    today's high (so far) 1001.78

    I understand that was one scary ride up – are we gonna miss ride down?

  • standard_and_poor

    Bought NCS on 7-15-09, it is currently up 9.4% today.
    Here's some Miles Davis:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oZkcUukH3iM

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    With all due respect to fa_q – do your OWN thing. You'll fair better long term making your own decisions, rather than following someone else. It seems pretty obvious but I see too many people looking for someone else's approval of a trade.

  • manxman

    I think the dots appear as soon as a signal appears, ie Early TA. However, if the signal is no longer valid at the end of the time period the signal will disappear but the dot doesn't. As I say, I think that's it but I may be wrong.

  • Blind_Squirrel

    SEC charges BAC in relation to MER

  • Douala

    Thanks!

  • fuw

    I was also thinking about that, but its not it. Today we had a false/intermittent sell signal on the third candle, but that dot did not stick.

  • molecool

    Careful – the PTs pushed it above one buck so they could collect their 0.25 per share – I would be cautious going long here.

  • Fujisan

    a=c completes at ES 1004.

    EUR/USD broke out of the multi-month triangle. Went long last night at 12:00 am, just closed my longs with 220 pips move. There are more legs to this move.

    With USD breaking to the downside, I woulnd't short this market.

  • itsgold

    damn, that's why it's dropping. bought sept 13 puts on it.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Put a fork in BAC on this breaking news from SEC…Nighty night keep your butt hole tight..

  • Basilfawlty

    Thanks.

  • annamall

    I have had my fun with them already, done with that! LOL

  • Anonymous
  • http://sovereignspeculator.com SovSpec

    Yeah, it's all one trade: copper, oil, silver, SPX, no difference. I do see a divergence by bonds though.

    In June, when sentiment on bonds and the dollar reached bearish extremes, everything reversed together shortly thereafter.

  • Keirsten

    I wouldn't touch that garbage with a ten foot pole. 😉 No E-ticket rides for me today.

  • annamall

    I am going short GDP/USD with a limit order of 169.76 and of course OCO order.

    Princess I just did my first real FX trade and made 30 pips! Wow that felt good! :)))

  • http://sovereignspeculator.com SovSpec

    By divergence, I mean bonds are down but holding above the lows.

  • Iguanadon

    It's only the SEC… That's like saying the fashion police are going to investigate Borat and Bruno. 😉

  • annamall

    Alright I just put on CSCO Sept 23 calls. I paid .82 and the IV was relatively low (lower in Sept than Aug) so I took a chance and let's hope I can get one earning play right, so far I have sucked big time on the earnings plays. :)

  • annamall

    Hey Momma, how was “THE WEEKEND” ????? Fill me in later ok? :)))) (privately)

  • fuw

    4 failed attempts by the Nasdaq to capture 2000 so far today. Fifth time the charm?

  • Fujisan

    Congrats on your first profit! Well done, Anna. Great way to start Aug.

    GBP/USD – with a strong breakout like this, downside is very limited. I would rather wait for a retracement to go long.

  • Keirsten

    On the paranoid side of this trade- you need to keep a lid on that trade if it hikes above 77.75 @ resistance. No guarantees the cross plays out, as we've all obviously learned from trying to game this with logical TA for the last several months. Stay cautious no matter what. 😉

  • rhae

    SPY 10m gaming the chart, ok so far … I think I will give the bear / bulls ? a little more rope….
    http://screencast.com/t/MV3LubZz7bq

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    good luck!

  • annamall

    thanks sistah! :)))

    so you think GDP may go higher and is there an inverse H&S on the chart I see?

  • trabuco

    caught the low..most excelent…

  • annamall

    Hey Candle!!! :) thank you How are you doing today?

  • ARJ

    Don't believe it's a bad idea to follow somebody else's trades particularly such traders have a very good track records.

    But risk tolerance could be quite different among individuals, so each individual should certainly understand this and be prepared just in case.

  • annamall

    Crooks! they all are. bastards. this morning I opened up my Citibank CC online (only one with a balance) and they jacked up my interest rate w/o notice to 24%
    I immediately lcosed the account!

  • http://thetickerstreet.blogspot.com/ TickerStreet

    By the time SEC completes this investigation, SPX will cross 1500, drop to 546 and then jump to 852 again.

  • ARJ

    upper or lower gap?

  • de3600

    999 666 hmmmmmmmmmm

  • ausdude

    BAC just took off – wtf?

  • Blind_Squirrel

    Feds serve search warrants on Colonial Bank, more bullish news!!!

  • Fujisan

    Turn your PP and see if it comes back to PP.

    PP set up works much better with EUR/USD – it's a little bit off for GBP/USD and that's why I couldn't go long GBP/USD pair last night…

  • Fujisan

    Thanks, trabuco!

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    That kind of attitude has never ended in financial independence ('independence' being the key word here). And his track record (though I'm not familiar with it) is of no importance to anyone other than him.

    You are better off understanding the 'why' behind a trade. That is something tangible that you can apply in your own trading.

  • fa_q

    He just said “thanks” – he didn't say “here is my account password, enter my trades, please.”

    Just giving my opinion and my trades. Everyone makes their own decisions.

  • trabuco

    If I may…Deutsche Bank predits USD/EUR at 1.20 year end…care to venture a guess?

  • Keirsten

    Watching TLT today:

    http://tinyurl.com/m6lhbx

  • annamall

    many bows! :) your'e the best!

  • anthem

    annamall, same here. I've picked the wrong direction on earnings play this entire quarter. Debating whether to determine my hunch and go the other way. .. . Brilliant plays this quarter on my part :-).

    Good luck on your csco call. I don't usually play it since its a big effort for csco to even move $0.50. .. .

  • Divertom

    Excellent. +100

  • Fujisan

    That may be all possible – but I only have a very short term upside target right now.

  • Bankrupt

    that the other way to say they expect the equity market to crash

    but they didn't mention that, did they?

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    S&P is too mellow these days. I say it's time to get pissed! Plus screaming “disorder!” over and over seems particularly appropriate.

    “Toxicity,” System of a Down
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4C-RueD59oE

  • Bankrupt

    Bank of America Settles SEC Lawsuit for $33 Million, SEC Says

    lol, taxpayers give taxpayers $33m

  • trabuco

    Of course…but if we see that EUR 1.20/1 rate I will be buying every last dollar I have in NOK…

  • http://www.finz.tv/posse bhbgrouptrader

    its on my watchlist again as well and i just added to my 30yr/5yr futures bond spread fyi!

  • ACJ

    The August 3rd, 2009 Newsweek cover says “THE RECESSION IS OVER”, so we are getting closer to a top. I figure give the Sheep another 5-6 weeks to realize the market is going up and they are missing out, then we'll have our top.

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    I know it's your opinion. You'd be surprised how easily people can be convinced to tag along on a trade if they find confidence in someone. But, it does nothing to help themselves though. It's equivalent to a mini-high, so to speak.

  • Keirsten

    I'm showing a bullish Aroon crossover on the daily chart bhb (as of today) – last time was the June/July run up. But I am skiddish with just about all indicators right now. Just wanted to pass it along though. I have to see it hold support here before I take a bite.

  • http://alphahorn.blogspot.com/ alphahorn

    lifted this off another site, but it captures the essence of this market

    http://breakpointtrades.com/file.php?id=9932

  • Blind_Squirrel

    http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/128

    20 bln in deposits would be sixth largest failure, sure to be bullish!!!

  • fuw

    Funny how cnbc have the title “US Manufacturing Improves” when the article says that “the US manufacturing sector continued to shrink in July but at a slower pace than the previous month”. I'm fed up with the whole second derivative argument.

  • rhae

    sounds like they got off cheap, plenty of money left over for bonus checks

  • wex

    How do you treat heat stroke in a cat?

  • BigIslandLife

    Wondering how many of the autos sold during the cash for clunkers was inventory from closed dealer lots that where excess inventory and all this promo did was clear out old inventory and if they will actualy produce new cars??

  • Bricks

    I'm looking for a new charting book and was wondering if TK's book “Chart Your Way to Profits is worthwhile.” I'm a big fan of his blog (although not nearly as devoted as I am to Evil Speculator) but was wondering if his book really presents anything unique.

    Thanks to all of you who post here and answer (this noobs) questions and as always – Thanks Mole for providing one of the best blogs out there.

  • annamall

    hahah thanks for making me feel not so bad! :))) usually we are both good! I have seen your calls, but this quarter, it seemed every damn one was wrong, maybe this time???

    thanks we shall see how it plays out, now if CSCO goes higher that is a benchmark for the NQ. :)

  • annamall

    Immediately cool them off to bring their temp to around 101.00 degrees. (that is normal for cat) I put cold compresses all over her, and also put Rubbing alcohol on pads of feet and inside ears. Also put a fan on them if you can directly (I have a floor fan) and pray.
    he gave her a cortisone shot, so hope to see her eat very soon. been 3 days now.

  • annamall

    Fujisan if you see this where do you find the PP on the forex charts? thanks

  • rhae

    about the new pole, assume on a daily closing EOD basis… 1000

  • annamall

    I have it. Its very basic aimed towards newbies. :) Good to have though as reference book.

  • annamall

    SSC, I love this group and this song! thanks :))))

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Im good and yourself? I took profits on my long scalps for the day. Just laying low today.

  • molecool

    There is a new pole? Dancing pole or north pole?

  • http://www.aggressivelyuninformed.com nepharis

    Yeah, it's a very good intro to basic patterns and technical analysis in general. Lots of very nice real-world example charts.

  • ACJ

    the run-up from all the late $ coming in could be pretty dramatic though, be careful if you are short!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    went short /nq 1/2 pos 2350 stop 2675

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Bears don't want the Nasdaq to go past last Fridays highs..

  • steveo77

    Honestly, can even a burnt bear see bullishness in these candlesticks?

    http://screencast.com/t/LNqJCZyS

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I guess that is new in TOS – in AT order column I can see position now – I needed that badly since I am not using P&L column for day trading

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)
  • Keirsten

    A quick look at GOOG daily chart: 4.73 % of QQQQ

    http://tinyurl.com/ncnhx2

    RIMM= 3.45% and QCOM = 6.72%

  • annamall

    hahahahaha dry dry dry!!!! :)

  • alkamist

    and did it all go to foreign automakers…? A 2% rise in sales for Ford seems low for the amount of cash doled out.

  • annamall

    Doing great today, winner in equities and forex! A twofer! glad you're doing well! :)

  • Keirsten

    Here's a lovely pole dancer for you guys.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ouVlr1Exjo

  • ropey

    looks like its breaking down *sigh* relentless retard buying coming again..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I was just wondering – was it physically possible for my day to become even worse?
    ANd you just answered that question

  • ARJ

    Understanding your view in general, but let's give fa_q the compliments for making himself the good money, and post his trades to allow some of us to join (follow) him for well thought through trades.

  • Keirsten

    Nyuk nyuk nyuk. Yeah, but I know you laughed. 😛

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    I guess I feel similar to what bulls felt back in Feb/March – all I want to know is “W H Y ?”

    I think I just will add more short /nq – water torture… “W H Y ?”

  • ckeltner

    I didn't even look as I figured it was a trap, your reaction just confirmed that haha.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    moi? laughed? you heard me on my videos – do I sound like a clown to you? funny how???

  • http://www.ambgtrading.com/ amgrant

    That was seriously hilarious.

  • Keirsten

    You know me too well CK.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    OK, I know we are near the top as I just got a heckler email from a bullish former colleague of mine. The subject read “How's that DOW 4000 working out for ya?”

  • Keirsten

    No, I haven't heard you on your videos lately because I haven't seen a link to them.. ahem.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Just a random thought, but this constant upward movement in $SPX seems almost the opposite of the constant downward movement from February – March. At that time there were around 13 down days with only 5 up days (with the fifth up day being the one that contained the 666 low) before reversing. Now we've got 12 up days with 4 down days. A reversal (even short term) must be due soon…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Exactly what you should have done.

  • annamall

    ROTFLMAO!!!!! hahahahahahah I am laughing so hard my tummy hurts! BTW you must have missed my asking how was “the weekend” ???? 😉

  • fuw

    However, a difference is that the decline was being hindered while this is being applauded and supported.

  • fuw

    Zero and Zlite providing some mixed messages today it seems(?).

  • ACJ

    the top ain't in until you see Hyperventilating Pumpers on MSM

  • thunda72

    Wow….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    SM shorting SM ahead of earnings, today ah—–they'll miss

  • Basilfawlty

    THINGS THAT MAKE YOU GO HMMM:

    In the past 7 trading days, while the $SPX has been in an uptrend,
    the VIX has ALSO been in an uptrend!

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&

    This is another not so subtle warning of the pending down turn in the General equity markets.

    Notice how the media hype over $SPX 1000 is at it's loudest, and many feel they are being “left behind” if they don't “jump in” now?. This, in my opinion, is the time for FEAR and not HOPE.

  • Eris

    Today I'm glad I got off the permabear wagon and capitulated on Friday morning when I finally paid attention to the weak dollar signal.

    I'll be ready to short if/when the dollar actually comes back to life again…

  • ropey

    doubletop on GS? 166..

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    looks like we have new terms to add to the list of words not permitted on ES
    these are “inverted hammer”, “gravestone doji”, “shooting star”

    Please mail yuor additions to the list to P.O.Box “no traditional TAs allowed” together with the check for only $7.99

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    It is good to know that you covered and stopped pain – I guess now market can collapse and ease mine :)
    ( J/K )

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just between you and me – I don't watch youtube during trading day, saved by the bell I guess :)

  • Keirsten

    Reminds me a lot of the dark despair back in March. 😉

  • fuw

    Some major TRIN action right now. We've had a shallow uptrend over the day, but now it seems to have spiked into bearish territory.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    Big battle between safely buying market at these overbought levels and dollar—that's why I'm short gold stocks–

  • Keirsten

    What's your take on CSCO this week?

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    stopped with loss of 3.25pts on 1/2 pos

    shorted 2550 2x pos stop 2875
    down wave was recalculated, still w2 at 76% retr – if it works – would be as perfect entry as it gets

  • tranchefoot

    Hey Fuji, it seems we double topped on the R1 monthly for the /6e, closed inside the hourly BB, etc. Are you taking the short?

  • Anonymous

    Just got off the phone with Phife Dawg. He said “Can I kick it? Yes you can.”

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    CSCO probably moves higher on eranings–but the market needs someone to miss. This market needs to pull back about 7%

  • Basilfawlty

    A FEW IDEAS:

    RIG, FCX, BEN, AAPL, APA (in their Bollinger Bands)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&

  • fulcrum

    hello, nad greetings from Croatia!

    http://img193.imageshack.us/img193/9089/padnik.png

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    ha – that was what I said too :)

  • steveo77

    http://screencast.com/t/J9U9tjSnLJI

    SPY broadening wedge, could be a stopping point, especially if USD gains any strength

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    USD moving up (I am long full /dx pos 77.72sh)
    VIX moving
    gold sold off

  • fa_q

    I posted yesterday that I loved IYR short and I shorted it directly this morning premarket and right at the bell. It is printing a perfect red hammer clear on the daily. Also, as noted by a posted on Karl's site, IYR is the farthest from it's middle Bollinger Band than it has been in years. Or at least this year he said. Something to look at. SPG, the largest IYR component, reports tomorrow morning so it's a little bit of a risk I suppose.

  • fulcrum

    I am new here, so hello and best wishes for everybody.I think that SP500 is near local top, and that we soon will see 970 or below levels.this is somekind of rising wedge or ED with deivergencies.
    cheers:)

  • Basilfawlty

    A FEW MORE IDEAS (to mull over)

    GS, FLS, SI,OIH, MON (in thie Bollinger Bands)

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn

    (SI ie Seimens, is my surrogate for playing the German Markets ie DAX etc)

  • Keirsten

    Thx Z.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Are the bulls ever going to take profits?

  • fa_q

    Tues/Wed/Thurs

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    Siemens looks like a short to me.

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    The crash is coming. S&P will drop to at least 995 by Friday. 😉

  • romeobravo

    Just pointed out to me. XRT and RTH, the retail ETFs, are nearing their levels from before the big breakdown this fall (more so the XRT.) Wow! The SPX has a lot of catching up to do if that is the case, up to 1200 or so. Something has got to give here. We seem to be in the twilight zone.

  • ropey

    large vol bars to the upside, i think they jam this up into the close…tomorrow may well be mole's 1007 target..

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    6 energy companies report ah–apc,chk,sm,upl,fst–mro beat st 5 cent

  • Basilfawlty

    All the “ideas” I posted today are meant to the evaluated, and IF they pass the smell test, appropriate entry points picked and “played to the down side”.

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    nearly all the gold stocks are at the upper bb band–or above it

  • molecool

    😛 It would be funny if it wasn't so painful…

  • molecool

    I can't take that trade – my mom and my dad met while working at Siemens :-)

  • OldManRiver

    Sell By August 10, 2009…or…Market Manipulation Explained

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-gra

  • string01

    Ben! Enough!
    My prostate is fine. Pls remove your finger.

  • roncofooddehydrator

    Oh no! How can we stop that from happening? Should I write my congressperson and ask them to give another billion to Goldman?

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    It is where I work now. HA!

  • divergence

    Have u checked a chart of XNG, pushed right up against 440 ema resistance. Has traditionally sold off on touch for past 9 months, but I would be a buyer on a breakout.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    I live behind Siemens in my van lol

  • chemE

    That's not his finger!

  • fa_q

    Yeah, I asked him to at least remove his ring and he said, “hell, that's my watch…”

  • Duuuuuude

    LMAO, well is this something technical, or did something happen at work today! lol

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    still an island top – is it?
    staying short

  • Duuuuuude

    I would appreciate your thoughts on this chart David. http://screencast.com/t/GCgKtAsuD

  • divergence

    I am tempting to short up against this resistance as well… but I donno, gamble really in this market.

  • Keirsten

    Invalid on the QQQQ only. They did fill the gap on Friday by a hair. But we don't talk about patterns and candlesticks in these parts anymore.

  • CaptainAnarchy

    That's not a finger….

  • http://zstock7.com/ zstock

    XNG 200 day weekly is 473–it hasn't been above the 200 weekly since OCT

  • Keirsten

    CHK reportedly hedged themselves just as a head's up and a potential caution. I don't know squat about the others, but may they all RIP.

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    just called Tom Bulkovsky, told him I discovered new pattern – last 3 days – I called it “double topless”

  • ropey

    Not far off something like this…the bear will have his 1 or 2 days soon.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEz0MLXgv9Q

  • YOGI

    Mole…any thoughts about silver will be greatly appreciated!!!!

  • ropey

    CHK was my worst trade ever last year – i loathe that stock.

  • fuw

    Can we finally get some downside? Pretty Please With Sugar on Top.

  • divergence

    Z, I was referring to daily 440 ema.
    http://www.screencast.com/users/vicdcarter/fold

  • DoubleNaughtSpy

    A little technical and that H2S leak was not that bad. (I work with chemicals) :-)

  • Keirsten

    Did you see my post on RIMM earlier?

  • Lonewolf2007

    have a feeling they will close this at 999.x on the SPX just to screw with people's heads. 666 to 999… now what 333???
    I wouldn't be surprized if several GS/Wall Street quants are laughing at this.

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    Anyday now we should be at 2000 spx at this rate

  • Keirsten

    The 100, yes, the composite, no- but ever so slightly.

  • tal23

    Thats not his finger

  • Me_XMan

    Market defies all statistics and charts and astrologies and GDP's and Biden! Wow!

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    do you think it'll be by Friday 2:30PM? I need to be home for Sabbath

  • BigHouse(Aka Mr Vix)

    This month is turning out to be a another dick…

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    this really reminds me of last year oct. I remember watching Fast Money and them saying “well, 10 more days like this and we are at zero”.

    On the flip side – 10 more days like this and we are at 1200 SPX lol Its the bear crash of bear crashes lol

  • disrespekt

    Daily RSI now 76…this is getting like the .com days

  • BigIslandLife

    Not at all impressive only 5points after a ten point gap and no surge over 1000, something smells fishy, this rally is tirrreeed

  • http://stainlesssteelchicken.blogspot.com/ StainlessSteelChicken

    Can you post a chart? :)

  • fuw

    I'm so fed up with this that I wanna punch somebody in the face.

  • Me_XMan

    I'm FRICKING TIRED of this bullsh*t!!!

  • Squidman

    MON is my choice, but, I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow.

  • string01

    All's I know is there's a lot of santorum to clean up.

  • http://www.nkouts.com nkouts

    The rally was also tired two weeks ago…

  • ropey

    I think they should do one of these for ben bernanke or some of the CNBC crew..

    http://www.gordonramsayswearsatyou.com/

  • ropey

    2:28pm and 12 seconds

  • cedieke

    Something else. I went to best buy to look for a new desktop that would allow more than 2 screens. Got no information at all from the staff. Any suggestions, as i have no idea how to do it, or what to look for, thanks

  • PRSGuitars

    Back in January, I specifically someone saying “I want to punch XLF in the face”…

    I've never forgotten that, as I knew I would have frustration like that someday soon. Well, here it is today!

    This really blows. Even the retraces intraday are 3-4 minutes long, just enough to drop a few underwater puts and get long an /es… but even then, the TICK divergences and EOD absolute FUCKERY! didn't let any bears have fun today.

    I'm having a difficult time scaling into positions — I'm currently 22% short via Aug 99 puts (bought @ 1.8ish, currently 1.5) and will add another small lot if we push to SPX 1010, however, this is just unbearable. I'll leave the cursing and frustration to you, and please, if we get someone to punch, hit them in the throat for me.

  • Bankster

    fa_q, do you ever go long? I am starting to wonder if the bear market is over. I'm starting to lose faith that we are ever going down again.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    I have 4 screens hooked up to one PC. You need a video card that will support two screen outputs, so there are two VGA ables coming out of it from the back of your pc. Thats probably too advanced for Best Buy staff lol

  • PRSGuitars

    Most comps require a video card for each monitor. Macs allow only one monitor (by default) but have multiple soft-desktops one can switch between. The best solution is either 2x computer + 2x monitor or computer + X monitors + X video cards (whatever can fit in your computer, that is…)

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    thats what bears said at 900, 920, 950, 980

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    1002..what does that number mean?

  • annamall

    well I might be crazy, but I loaded up on spy puts 97 sept. at close. With that said, I am long AMZN, SNP (took off 1/2) CHU (anything chinese is on crack)

  • mrclam

    These days I think most video cards support dual monitor. Look at the back of your computer and see how many plugs yours supports. Also, depending on what type of mac you have, you may also have support for dual monitor.

  • dollar

    me too – TZA

  • de3600

    tradingcomputers.com buy your stuff here best buy is a shit hole

  • Scrillhog

    You bad, bad bull! Only short positions I entered today were INTC and a partial position in RIMM..

    If the $ makes a run for 76 I figure I'm probably a little early, but I'm slightly hedged so I'm not too concerned. Funny how GS's call of SPX 1060 would probably coincide with the dollar tanking just a little bit more down to 76.

  • ablebonus

    I run 3 24″ widescreens with a setup from tradingcomputers.com. Good support, everything works.

  • annamall

    I know I am so ashamed!! hehehehe how could I doubt my goverment and the FED??? bad girl bad girl..heheh.
    I think we may get a short term pop in USD, hence the put buying, but longer term I think we see 1150 on SPX in the next couple months.

  • PRSGuitars

    Nice! Thanks for the advice — i'll check it out. Had always hoped for a dual monitor display anyway, now I might be able ot make that happen…

  • de3600

    999 plus 3

  • molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨
    ¨°º¤ø„¸ N E W „ø¤º°¨
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://chaugner.blogspot.com chaugner

    998, 1014, 1024, 1039, 1045, 1065 …. and so on and so on. There is always resistance somewhere =) just the bulls don't really care about em.

    I just went into my own time machine to the future to look up resistance in the Goldman Sachs trader wiki.

    “mythical term that stopped providing any type of technical significance in the mid 2009 time frame. Back in the 2009 all the way through 2015 time frames a type of investor called “bear” (lookup reference in archives) used those numbers to try to convince himself that the market must go down.

    Note: Also look up [what goes up must come down] myth.

    FYI: Don't forget to register for your monthly market prop review meetings.”

  • molecool

    Simple – you can buy pretty much any box these days. Make sure it's got dual processors (dual cores) and 4GB of RAM (of which Windows can utilize 3.5 just about). You can also install Windows 7, which can use a lot more but most apps still run in 32bit mode. Win7 is very stable btw – I was surprised – good stuff.

    For every monitor you run just buy a cheap old NVidia graphic card – you can also buy one or two dual port cards (two monitors per card) and they will work without problems.

    Make sure you setup AntiVir and SpyBot – a must on Windows.

    That should get you going.

  • PRSGuitars

    Hey anna, I've got a little options advice I'd like to glean from you, if that's ok —

    I've been churning Aug 99 SPY puts (buying above 983, selling below, re-positioning on every bounce) but took a 50% short position home over the weekend, partially hedged (which I closed today, but it wasn't much help…), aug 99 spy puts vs aug 96 spy puts (short; closed today).

    like I said, I'm 50% scaled in from an avg. price of 1.80, however, I'm nervous to add until we see a clear topping pattern and I'm surprised to find the front-month ITM puts all of the sudden now OTM puts with 14 trading days to go!

    Would you recommend moving to September to give myself more time, or switching to a further ITM strike? I had planned on spreading them against Aug 96 puts when we dropped a little to hedge and protect, however, I'm frustrated I had neither the discipline to close them after the first drop to /es 988 (arrrgh!) nor the wherewithal to grab some /es long against it early enough on to make a difference.

    I'm not terribly worried; just displeased with my performance today and looking for some sage advice:
    Would you hold fast and add to the 99s?
    roll into September?
    reduce exposure overall to short side (i'd say I'm particularly spooked because I've yet to catch a good entry long as I wasn't trading /es much this week — thus, not much portfolio 'balance' on my end…)

    Ideally I would've closed 1/2 on the 945 dip (but then again, who would let puts go that early in the day after a failed breach of 994?) and scaled slowly over the day (obviously EOD was prime).

    Thanks so much and I hope the heat stricken kitty is much better. After your other feline returned a few weeks back I knew our collective good thoughts had counted for something! Now let's try to coordinate once more, all at once– ::bear market return, bear market return…::

  • ScubaSteve

    Most computers these days that have a dedicated graphics card will be able to run two monitors. You don't need a dual core processor, lots of RAM, etc. All you need is the video card that has two outputs (it can be DVI/DVI or DVI/VGA), mine is DVI/VGA, so I have one monitor running DVI, and the other is hooked up via VGA. Of course, extra RAM helps in running multiple applications, as with a nicer processor, but the essential part is the video card.

  • ropey

    I have an iMac and it supports 2 monitors..

    Also if you need 3, check out this gizmo..

    http://www.matrox.com/graphics/en/products/gxm/

  • ropey

    interesting, why sept? 😉 if she's gonna drop it'll be soon for some kind of retrace..i'm too impatient to buy out to sept, still have 2.5-3weeks left on aug and plenty of time for ups and downs.

  • Twin

    Anna, since the commiss is so high on SPY options what about SPX options? (you get 10 times more position for the same commsision) Bad spread? Or even options on the /ES futures?

    Its annoying when all your gains go to the broker.

    How can ToS get away with $2.5/ctrct when IB is $1?

  • fuw

    Yeah, what that guy said…

    I basically mirror your emotion. The retraces are ridiculously small, and going long here feels insane. I guess the trick is to stay away and not overtrade. Is is just insane how strait up this market has gone, and whenever a pullback seems to be coming up there is just nothing. All fear appearantly went away in a heartbeat (or maybe the fear of missing out took over).

    Maybe I should a least get one of these to torture:
    http://www.squeezethebanker.com/

  • m123456

    i love you. you are spot on but no one seems to care. this market is going to 500000000000!!!! then will crash to 100 when they relaize obama has be the one buying all these stocks.

  • manxman

    Odd!

  • Anonymous

    Good luck with her recovery

  • http://trading-to-win.com/ DavidDT

    sorry, just noticed your post (in my mailbox – weekly clean up time :)
    If the question is about time series – you will have to switch it 2 bars to the left from the highest bar (and there is a good reason for that – if you will not be able to figure it out “why” – shoot me an email)
    In respect to your wave count – I can only do UUP, but your target is very close to UUP W5 target (another 4.5%)
    http://screencast.com/t/ktfT9X7R8r

  • dza

    Thanks for the reading and posting a link to the paper. -as

  • dza

    Thanks for the reading and posting a link to the paper. -as

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