Education
Now Reading
Hang Loser
168

Hang Loser

by The MoleFebruary 10, 2016

Apparently I am losing out on ill-gotten gains due to not hanging loose enough. As your venerable deacon of market domination congregating our esteemed flock of trading disciples I have been preaching the gospel of prosperity during days of darkness. And I quote:

Mole 2016-6: Double your stop and half your exposure.

Clearly I was spot on in theory but putting my own words into action proved to be difficult in the context of my new Discretionary campaign which I had developed a few weeks ago. In the past I used to manually place and then manage my campaigns and after more than a decade of participating in this racket I’ve become pretty good at assessing the situation and making the proper calls based on available technical evidence. Since introducing my automated campaign management however it’s the system rules which are in charge and they simply do what they’re programmed to do. For instance after about 0.5R profit I advance the stop up to the -.0.5R point, and after 1.2R I push it to break even. Now if my stop is 8 handles away but the ATR on the day is larger than that then the odds of a revisit are pretty high.

ES

So I have two options here: I can either pick a wider stop or I can shift the initial trailing thresholds. I tried out both on my E-Mini campaign which was stopped out at break/even yesterday. If I raise the threshold from 0.5/1.2 to 0.75/1.5 I still get stopped out. I actually had to widen my stop to – get this – 18 handles (plus minus) for the 1836 entry to survive yesterday’s gyrations.

Now my stop was originally at 1819 – just a little below the Monday lows. They would not have been touched and if I would give up on the b/e advance for another R or so I would have stayed in the game as well. That said – both Scott and I agree that over 80% of campaigns will get stopped out if they push to 0.7R and then revert back to -0.3R. So the thinking here is that you’re saving yourself 0.3R of losses in 80% of the cases. I take that to the bank any day, full well knowing that the remaining 20% may contain outliers which wind up banking you more coin in the long run. As always your system needs to reflect your own needs and requirements whilst allowing you to stay in the game without loss of sleep.

GC

Same thing happened on gold as well – I snagged a pretty good entry and that last swing higher almost exactly snagged my trailing stop at break/even. Very annoying and although the fat lady hasn’t sung on this one yet I think keeping a slightly looser stop and delayed trailing thresholds is the better approach. Note that gold is actually a lot less volatile than the spoos. So if I’m getting stop snagged here then fat chance my original approach would fly on something like crude, equities, or (crossing myself) natgas.

Moral of the story

Chances are you’re not hanging loose enough. Yes, it’s great in theory to use a 5 handle stop and then ride your position higher/lower for 50 handles. But let’s be honest to ourselves: How often are we really that lucky? So next time when you place your stop, ask yourself that question: Do I feel lucky?

Well, do you, punk?

P.S.: Yes, that typo is intentional 😉


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    Hang Loser (as in you lost…) or Hang Looser with your stops…

    http://public.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/looser.html

    Must admit I thought the guy on the board was a Loser and was about to be Hung….when I first started reading the post…

    :-) D

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Yes – that typo is INTENTIONAL as I lost out on profits. Jeeezzz – I’m not that dense – it’s a word game.

  • http://pugsma.wordpress.com/denalis-turning-points/ denali92

    I know – I liked it – got my attention… as so many of your posts do….

    thus the :-)

    -D

  • BKXtoZERO

    speaking of looser stops my NatGas idea failed me at my 2$ entry by keeping it too tight. I just re=entered at 2.05 with a stop of 1.98 but am using UGAZ entry at 1.50

  • Billabong

    I tried NG over a year ago using BOIL and KOLD … they didn’t call it the widow maker because the rewards flowed easily.

  • Billabong

    CL hitting multi-month lows this morning @ $27.39 … local pundits here are predicting $15. I told them the only prediction I have is lunch at 12pm.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I started “cough” accumulating oil here as I am not so smart as to nail the low. Initial hold entry today at 1.30 UWTI. I know you hate averaging in but that is my plan. Look at Gold go….. Was I smart enough to nail the low on NUGT? I was in and out of NUGT a few times and missed the main course. 401K small hold.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Shorted nq 4009

  • BKXtoZERO

    Here is my “hoped for” SPX 1870…. looks like more coming to me at the moment though….

  • mugabe

    hang instead of hung … very funny!

  • ridingwaves

    hanging loose in grand canyon…sunset last night, heading to Sedona today..best of trading to all
    http://s9.postimg.org/a1pyoyk1b/Grand_Canyon_sunset.png

  • Time Bandit

    That’s a beautiful place. I think I have the same picture only without the snow. :) Also if you haven’t done it (although it might be too cold this time of year) when you get to Sedona you might want to take the “Red Baron” Open Cockpit Biplane Ride if it’s still available. My wife and I flew in it a few years ago during the summer and it was awesome with unbelievable views.

  • BKXtoZERO

    In TVIX at 10.6, SP1875, hard stop SP 1881

  • ridingwaves

    uploading my sunrise pictures now and heading out, I will look into the plane ride…though I have the dog and wife so that would be interesting…GCanyon is only natl park that allows a dog…Amazing…of course lazy owners don’t help the good ones out…

    Spx gets thru 1874, it should rip to 1892 area..if it gets above that, shorts are going to feel PAIN

  • ridingwaves

    Vix could see 23 quickly…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • BKXtoZERO

    OOOT (Canadian for OUT) of TVIX 10.42, prior to stop but not looking good. Quick to cut bait w/ this one

  • BKXtoZERO

    maybe we finally have ourselves the start of a rip. It’s been a while.

  • Yoda

    Hi. Quite a high trin reading today we have. Trust this up move I do not. Reversal down I expect.

  • Time Bandit

    We were fortunate to have ridden through Sedona and most of Arizona on a Motorcycle. To be able to experience this while using all senses is something we’ll never forget.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Sold QQQ from yesterday on gap fill. Still holding small DUST.

  • Kato33

    My TS on SI got hit last night for 9R. However I could not resist the retrace back to the 100h sma and the lower 25h BB. So I’m back long at 15.13. ISL below the 100h sma

  • BKXtoZERO

    so far, if you look hard at the low of the day for TVIX, you’ll see my face on that low candle stop out.

  • kim

    lucky bastard?!

  • Mark Shinnick

    I think I might recognize the spot…awesome. :)

  • Round we go

    bounce?

  • Mark Shinnick

    This hopefully resolves to a H&S formation leading into low 10 or 9 handle.

  • BKXtoZERO

    edit: wrong post reply

  • Mark Shinnick

    Well…if its any consolation…I was buying between 1035-1039.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Now exited…view it as just a scalp.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Trailing stop got hit on DUST

  • BKXtoZERO

    I was on one ride all last year that wasn’t to work. Nothing beats nice scenery on a bike. Bikers say seeing scenery from a car is “being in a cage”.

  • Mark Shinnick

    The contagion is spreading. A buddy of mine, Vp at Maersk said that container rates have dropped to $25 so as to return boxes to where they are most needed. Global shipping is in a nosedive. I hope everyone is well aware of major financials now at < than 2008/9 levels. US real estate is showing downward adjustments to appraisals this past Summer/Fall. Some deep level shit is happening I hope we are all preparing for on some level.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Running out time..hope this can still happen.

  • BKXtoZERO

    Yesterday loss on UWTI was 1.69 to 1.53, 0.16 loss, stops for me hard to determine based on CL but UWTI I try to keep around 0.15-0.20. So loss on this was around 1R. % account loss was 0.7%. I haven’t posted this kind of stuff but am starting to get more into this. I was asked these kinds of things many times and only recently invested the extra time to figure it out.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    turn off the Log, messing with our visual acuity.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok…but maybe try to stay focused on the stock market…IMO that’s the best risk/reward for the time and attentions at this point.

  • BKXtoZERO

    agreed. Dumped Nat Gas already too. I often start trying to think of these long term ideas, then realize I am a trader not an investor. It may work but there are certainly better things to do with my buying power than mess w/ this crapola.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Mental capital too.

  • Yoda

    Discount the possibility of another thrust higher I would not. Around es 1880 highest volume profile is found. ZL a gift from the all mighty is.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    In this morning, partially out at a profit, and now back fully in some GLD puts. Pretty tight stop on most of these; looking for a close below yesterday’s lows to keep me in the front week contracts overnight.

  • mugabe

    would disagree with you there .. risk management is number 1. I mean, how long does it take to calulate this stuff? calculate R in dollars the night before and divide it by your stop distance to get position size. takes about a minute. isn’t a minute’s worth of calculation worth it?

  • Yoda

    GLD short last Monday I took. So far so good. An exit target I still look for.

  • mugabe

    Mole-
    website issue. I’m finding this massive horiontal bar menu – which appears apparently unbidden – quite annoying and hard to get rid of. but perhaps it’s just me – am using latest version of Firefox.

  • kim

    yes

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I’m just looking to close Monday’s gap up. Anything beyond that is a bonus. So far today, the Midas Touch has been in effect, as GLD has held up and the mining indexes have recovered and keep going up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Click on the bar menu and then move out of it. Should do the trick. This may be hard to fix as the theme’s author is a bit of a dick.

  • BKXtoZERO

    it’s not just you. It pops down often when you don’t expect it. Being leech of course I expect immediate action! probably blood leech is also on-board 😉

  • BKXtoZERO

    I am in the same vehicles so often that I have a good idea where they are but yes, not too hard.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    The massive horizontal bar menu appears for me when I click somewhere up there by mistake, and its not so intuitive to get rid of. I end up clicking on a link which leads me away from the current page then have to come back.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I’m aware of it guys. It’s just that I’m knee deep in deliverables and this just got tacked to the bottom of the list.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Gold is being stubborn – unacceptable.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    No worries, we have bigger problems to tackle – the market.

  • BKXtoZERO

    also, the meaning I took away is why mess with long slow performers when buying power is an issue (for me) due to stop outs.

  • mugabe

    back to B Leech’s a la carte approach again,are we?

  • mugabe

    I think that’s a separate point, but an important one .. it all goes back to Ivan’s DNA analogy

  • mugabe

    easy pin position

  • BKXtoZERO

    Long DUST, 7.3, tight stop. I put this on yesterday too but took end of day profit. Didn’t post, too busy removing Oil furnace, installing bathroom fan and clearing roof vents.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I expect the tape to bend to my will. May need to convert to the dark side of the force.

  • mugabe

    the latest idea is to try whispering and cajoling it, as shouting at it hasn’t worked in the past. as einstein said, the mark of insanity is to keep on …

  • Darkthirty

    How much does it cost to raise the ES 10 points?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Three goats and two virgins – paint a pentagram on the floor with chalk and swear your allegiance to the Dark Lord. Unfortunately that only gets you five handles but it’s worth it.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Am I alone in thinking that this tape is fucking annoying? It’s been a PITA for almost a year now. I say – let’s just get this over with and move on.

  • Yoda

    if GLD looks like it will finish the day with a hammer, the short trade I will close. From higher up (1210-1220) I might re-enter short, if breach of current resistance (1202) is not followed-up or if enough bullish mojo is not seen after breach.

  • Kato33

    Maybe a direction coming soon. Price wedging between a down sloping 100h providing resistance and a up sloping 25h providing support

  • BKXtoZERO

    even hard on the Ayatollah………..

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Was just thinking the same thing. Mostly it’s been fun and opportunistic, but this week, and today really seem to “take the cake.” Seeing some things that might stick to script ….. but …. well …. just damn. Something looks like its about to happen.

  • mugabe

    it’s either been in a tight range or plunging

  • mugabe

    I have a feeling we’ll be getting plenty of direction and it’ll be of the red kind … not betting the farm on it though

  • Time Bandit

    Well I just did something I haven’t done in a long time and that was to actually short something by borrowing the shares. Of course, I should have shorted it 3 months and $8.00 ago but WTF? Anyhow, there might be some meat left on the bone here so I went short OIH at $20.30 which is an Oil Services ETF with about a $2.00 Stop.

  • Kato33

    Agree. Hourly panel looks like a classic bear flag. However during the bull run these were repeatedly busted. Very telling if it plays out this time

  • mugabe

    I’m talking on a much longer term, actually .. there’s nothing on the longer term chart to make you bullish, really

  • mugabe

    I’ve wondered why you didn’t do that before rather than going with inverses

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Exactly.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I hear ya. I’m getting plenty of conflicting signals, so I’m just going to let the situation dictate my actions and wait for something to develop. $TYX keeps making new lows, oil sector (especially $OSX) looks like crap, big caps are lagging the broader market, gold is sticky, etc. Makes me want to go short again but I think it best to wait.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    I just want them to get this over with.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    When you wish your girlfriend would just break up with you so you can get on with your life, or at least tell you what she’s been mad about for the past month or two.

  • mugabe

    v hard to time gonig short even if we are in a bear market .. that’s why I prefer my one longer term option and wait and see

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    DNA – continued … Part III

    Time to look at some of the DNA components of The Market, or markets, that you plan to get involved with and create a RBT for.

    Optimal Time Window (OTW) – The same as Nature contains different seasons, likewise the various markets. These ‘seasons’ occur on many different levels or timeframes … from intraday to daily and even on a weekly and monthly scale.

    Despite the fact that many, if not most, markets trade on a global 24 hour basis there are distinct times of a 24 hour day when movements are both faster and cleaner.

    Similar observations can be made regarding the day of the week as well as the week or month of a year.

    A good example for stock traders is ‘Earnings season’ which can contain significant movements compared to the quieter phases around holidays.

    It is important to ensure a good match between the OTW of the market / s you want to trade with your own OTW … basis your biological internal clock.

    Margin requirement – This refers to the amount of money required to initiate a position in the leveraged markets. It is often viewed as an Initial Deposit or Margin because it refunded / returned when the position is exited or closed out. In the futures market the Margin is broadly based on the volatility of the market.

    The actual amount varies from futures market to futures market. In the spot FX and CFD (Contract For Difference) markets the margin requirement can also vary from broker
    to broker.

    In dollar terms the Margin requirement can range for a few hundred dollars to several thousand dollars for just one futures contract. In both the FX and CFD markets the actual amount needed to initially fund a position with depend on the size of position being taken.

    Average size of bar – This simply refers to the difference between the High and the Low of a bar (called the Range) and broadly can be used to assess the relative volatility of any market on any timeframe. Markets where the bars have large Ranges generally have larger margin requirements.

    The Range of a bar can also be used to approximate the risk of a campaign when entries and exits are based on the High and Low of a bar. Profits are measured as a percentage of risk (R value) and hence the larger the Range of a bar the further a market must move to achieve a 1R profit (ie a profit equal to the initial risk).

    Character of bars – In exactly the same way as people have different characters, so too with the markets. Some markets are more prone to certain types of bars such as Inside Periods and Outside Periods. Additionally this also applies to the various timeframes of a market all the way down to 1 minute charts.

    The frequency of such bars (and others) greatly affects the RBT that you may want to use to produce the positive results you are looking for from active risk-taking.

    Whilst all markets in general terms move in exactly the same … or in very similar ways, every market has its own nuances … and it is being cognisant of these nuances that makes the difference between outcomes. This is difference is especially noticeable when comparing stocks versus futures versus FX.

    Trendiness – Whilst all markets have phases when they trend (‘Good Cop’ phases in Ivan-speak) and non-trending phases (‘Bad Cop’), some markets and some timeframes clearly have more pronounced Good Cop phases than Bad Cop phases over time. Trends also exist as trend’ettes, as well as more serious major trends.

    As all types of market phases can be defined in black and white terms you can look to create different RBTs to take advantage of each phase. Alternatively you can adjust the rules of your RBT as the market phases change.

    Volume – Simply refers to the amount of trading done in any financial instrument and also plays a role in determining the character of that market. Volume can be used to determine whether a certain market can, or indeed should, be included in your proposed trading ‘Universe’. Universe is simply a fancy way of referring to the different stocks or financial markets or instruments you may be looking to trade.

    There are two aspects of Volume that need to be looked at. The first one is the total Volume traded in one day or hour or any time interval. It is believed that the greater the Volume the more liquid a market is. This is only partially true.

    The other aspect of Volume to be investigated is Volume per price increment as the large Volume of any time interval may be merely as a result of a large block transaction taking place. Absent that block trade the overall Volume may be too small to accommodate your RBT.

    The next article will look at the DNA of your (proposed) RBT … to see how the 4D cube fits together.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Exactly. My best successes by far in bear markets have come by waiting for the higher probability opportunities. Versus today, we are very probably just waiting to find out where we might be going within a trading range. We should all just go do something more productive, most likely.

  • mugabe

    not saying that, actually .. depends on your time frame

  • Time Bandit

    That’s a good point. I still like the 2X’s but I don’t like to short them. I tried to short USO about 6 times today. USO trades 44 Million shares per day and no shares were available. Man, there must be one hell of a short float on this one. So actually OIH was my second choice.

    BTW, I hate to buy options and about the only type of option trade that I want to do anymore is Credit Spreads. But even then these Credit Spreads have to have a small gap between bid and ask so I don’t have to romance the shit out of them to get in or out of a trade.

  • mugabe

    amazing that no shares were available!!

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Aye Cap’n.
    this is not my thing.
    If I want action, I’ll go to the laundromat. far cheaper!

  • mugabe

    plenty of other markets of course

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    exactly. (hint hint)

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Doesn’t look like a tradeable bottom so far. Gap has held so far. Looking to short EOD if no last hr ramp.

  • Time Bandit

    I was shocked and yet when I put my order in to short OIH it was filled instantaneously.

  • mugabe

    weird .. that’s probably be the next one that people flock to but you got in there first!

  • BKXtoZERO

    Mole, I see “Net Lines” in the info bar on top of your charts. Does your charting software put in Net Lines for you? I always assumed you were doing all this by hand.

  • mugabe

    e,g, long term, yen vs dollar is a beaut of a chart

  • BKXtoZERO

    Thanks Ivan. You have provided a good framework for this sort of thing. This is helpful to me. I have been slowly figuring out who I am and doing so on the fly which I am sure isn’t recommended. The market has been offering historic opportunities and I have been participating before I am 100% ready but things going well so far. I am a lot closer now to figuring out who I am and what I am not. Today was a good example for me. New rule for me today thanks to you in not using valuable buying power on longer term ideas when I am really not a long term guy.

  • Darkthirty

    Somnabitch! 3 goats and 4 virgins, and I only got 3! Satan ripped me off……

  • Darkthirty

    Fed keeps polishing, spray painting, and sprinkling glitter on this turd, ultimately it’ll be wasted effort…..

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – Very welcome … all three sets of DNA need to match up … when they do … then every month or year will just be a month or a year … one of the next ABC.

  • Billabong

    This is a good choice. Oil earnings are rolling in over the next few weeks and COP was hammered four days ago on pre-dividend cut. I suspect many more bad earnings and dividend cuts coming. This may be the last opportunity to catch the final down trend installment…

  • Time Bandit

    I suppose that could happen only the last time it was because of the run on Banks and the Financial Crisis. I was short Bank of America and Capital One back then. My shares were not called in but I was still forced to cover because of the squeeze when the announcement was made. Most of my profit went up to money heaven.

    I have a friend who was massively short banks and his shares were called in because they were borrowed from one of the fiduciariy’s that was going under. He was up around $200K on these trades and had his profits wiped clean before he could cover in time. He personally never recovered from that one. He was also a Gold Bug and eventually put everything into Gold for safety. . . :( I haven’t heard from him in 3 or 4 years.

  • BKXtoZERO

    MKT hasn’t had an intermediate size correction in a LONG time, even 10% correction….. MKT has been engineered with hardly any support below it. That is historic to my lens. I’ll agree that there is some kind of opportunity every day of the year. edit: not every day oil crashes like this. I will stick with “Historic”

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – By casting a wider net beyond the seductive stockmarket … opportunities galore appear.

  • Darkthirty

    When my wife pulled that game, I’d send the kids to the neighbors, lock the doors, and wear her out for a couple hours. She just has Hawaiian Disease.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Covered the short at 3979 (entry was 4009 as posted earlier this morning)

  • Billabong

    YM … 150 point shift in 15 mins

  • Yoda

    One hell of a tough tape to trade it is today

  • BKXtoZERO

    Following Ivan’s advice. I am branching out into other markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3w5D9yJUMOc

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    IWM looks like a 3 day flag so far. I am short SPY now.

  • Time Bandit

    Stopped on Basic Material Long for -.95 Loss. I don’t mind this one because it was traded correctly. I’m now short Basic Materials via SMN and a little concerned about correlation. But sometimes this is hard to avoid because the in a way everything is correlated.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    I try and only make entries EOD. Not for everyone but has saved me a lot of headache.

  • Billabong

    Correlation is a tough issue when the whole market is trending … you’re either on one side or the other.

  • Time Bandit

    This is what I do the vast majority of the time too Greenlander. I tend to make fewer errors doing it this way.

  • Time Bandit

    That’s for sure.

  • Billabong

    Most of the day YM was green and then wham, it’s down 100 … it would be a bummer if you’re long and get “excited” by an up market … Have to be ice cold in this business….

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Yeh I broke down my trade winning % and profitability and it clearly ramps up as I enter later in the day. And I have been a clear loser on morning. midday entries. I don’t particularly enjoy entering into the intraday washing machine either.

  • Billabong

    “…intraday washing machine…” … LOL

  • Ronebadger

    Been sitting on thumbs for over a month…took a few small stabs here and there and all totaled, broke even…so I’m good. Waiting for some glaring divergence…its coming…I’m sitting tight. Yes, frustrating…that’s a Bear Market, right?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    ah yes BAC.

    my Bull friend started cost averaging long from 12 down to 3.
    almost broke him. He profited nicely from the Bailout, with exit at 18.
    But don’t envy. he lost 2/3rd’s position in another trade. DRYS.
    LOL.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    i saw this happen to a lot of good customers when I was a broker. Really pissed me off between this and the bailout screwing a lot of traders that actually got the market direction right.

  • Darkthirty

    15500 DJI looking good.

  • kim

    SP500, if we breach current major support level, next stop is support around 1530.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    lots of mention about gold, dust, and nugt lately.

    GDX,
    There is a support band now in my lens
    ENV(120,14) at 16.22

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=15&id=p97561579124

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    eventually, yes.
    but there are other lines out there.
    for example 1760’s.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p55371027158

    or a big 50% fibonacci at 1620’s

  • Billabong

    What just happened? GC just tacked on close to $12 from settlement … 7:29 EST

  • Yoda

    Gold just skyblasted. Bunch of trades got triggered. Curious to see the price @ NYSE start I am.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech
  • Time Bandit

    I don’t know but this is getting serious as Crude just picked up a $26 Handle. And Equity Futures are down again in A/H. A lot of things can happen between now and tomorrows open though. . .

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    G’lander – when one has and applies a strict RBT approach to risk-taking I always urge students to examine the results of their RBT on a RO (Roll-Over) basis.

    The graphic below (from a student) illustrates one such effort.

    EDIT: As this is a wip … the stats are very incomplete … at this stage.

  • http://greenlander1.blogspot.com/ Greenlander

    Thanks Ivan for showing this. What I have is really basic and probably need to develop it more. I haven’t thought about separating them by day of week, perhaps I will find more clues there.

  • Yoda

    Like a 25$ handle…

  • Billabong

    Are you on the Mar 16 contract?

  • Billabong

    It was like out of nowhere and its not Asian activity … You’re dead right about AHs action … More than likely reverse ON.

  • Billabong

    With all the chit chat about DUST, I hope no one on this board has a position in it.

  • Yoda

    Yes, it is the one i am looking at.

  • Yoda

    Hope not. DUST, NUGT, TVIX and all that crap is for pikers though. So no sympathy from me if you trade those.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    TB is right, anything can happen, but wow, lookie at that.
    back to the mid-pivot with breakdown on the RSI 30m.
    -BL

  • Mark Shinnick

    Reentered with some size after we started into the 11 area, holding ON.

  • BKXtoZERO

    I have a small position from today 7.3 still on. I am done with that tomorrow though. BK Piker

  • mugabe

    am sure some people make money trading them

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    Gold weekly.
    Breakout, or reverse.
    The trader in me don’t care.
    just give me a clear direction.

    -GG

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Shorted NQ 3948. Daily suggests lower. Failed rally attempt of today also.

  • Time Bandit

    In US Dollars the March 16 (CLH6) Contract has a $26 Handle right now.

    Perhaps we’ll eventually see $25 or even lower but it is what it is at the moment.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html

  • BKXtoZERO

    My guess is Yellen didn’t say what the market wanted to hear (again). Last time I jumped right on it. This time I was flat-footed messing with other wrong trades.

  • Time Bandit

    People trade what they feel comfortable trading. Some things might suck for me but are money makers for someone else and vice versa.

  • Time Bandit

    OK in Scott speak ; Don’t worry about what Yellen or any other asshole says. Just pay attention to what your charts and your rules say and everything will take care of itself. :)

  • BKXtoZERO

    That is interesting but do you think it is possible to perhaps over analyze into paralysis? Like I am not going to trade on Tuesday mornings or something?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    and use a #2 pencil (on paper) before your trade.

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    BKX – All is possible … the good … the bad and … the ugly.

    Time of day and day of week studies have been around for ages … and have been incorporated into ongoing successful trading approaches … on different levels.

  • Time Bandit

    But use mechanical pencils because their erasers dont smudge. :)

    Seriously though, I have messed up way too many trades in anticpation of a particular event. Fuck events. The last few back tests I’ve done have been for 10 Years or longer. There is no possible way to match up events over this time period. So the other day when you said jokingly that “it was price in” that was not far from the truth at all.

    Price is the only thing that matters. All the rest is absolute Bullshit.

  • Yoda

    false breakout remain a possibility

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    I’ve learned so much. Just trying to pay-it-back,
    and keeping it Real.
    with a little bit of humor to add some spice.
    -BL

  • Time Bandit

    I hear ya. BTW, I’m glad I changed my Handle so it no longer has BL for initials. LOL

    Anyhow you are in a time zone 2 hours earlier than me and it’s time for me to call it a night. So have a good night and we’ll catch up tomorrow.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Blood_Leech

    L8ter!

  • phylum

    Decision made for u

  • phylum

    Gold or you?

  • phylum

    Bar by bar, that’s how the market unfolds….

  • phylum

    Or take trading seriously ….

  • phylum

    and you trade weeklies …. hmmmm

  • phylum

    Dude, “predictions” are not within the realm

  • phylum

    To echo “the” point, “System Traders”

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Phylum – Where ‘my’ L.I.V.E. approach differs markedly from the majority is … the fact that I look to take advantage of only one aspect of a market … and that is ‘movement’ … I do not give a rat’s about direction … my only requirement is ‘volatility’.

    The more conventional approach looks to ‘pick’ direction … plus movement aka volatility … except in the case of those who look to be short options.

    Hence my Journey is made much simpler and easier … or more accurately … my RBT’s Journey … as there is no need to be aligned with the market on two fronts.

    Each to their own … matching the three sets of DNA is what it is all about from my side … which is better … again I do not give a ” ___ ” … to quote the parting line from an epic movie!

  • phylum

    Chart (weekly)

  • mugabe

    just look at the yen …

  • mugabe

    everything remains a possibility

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    Trading is simply … assessing the probabilities of all possibilities … and then acting.

  • CandleStickEmUpper

    Covered at 3885. May see a slight bounce around 1812 spx, stiff resistance areas

  • http://www.ProfitFromPatterns.com/ Ivan K

    It is dangerous to make a judgement on an incomplete bar.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Yoda

    A possibility a prediction it is not. Outcomes many can be.

  • BKXtoZERO

    oh I am serious as a heart attack about trading, but retain some sense of humour in every aspect my life, even at the doctors office getting painful injections. Trading is a tad stressful. I will try to add, not clutter.