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Happy Birthday To Me!
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Happy Birthday To Me!

by The MoleAugust 3, 2011

Yes, that’s right – today is the three year anniversary of my very first post – how time flies!

It’s been quite a roller coaster with (literally) some ups and downs. But most importantly we all collaborated and learned a lot on the way. The market evolved – and so did the rowdy crew here which we came to call the stainless steel rats. Most importantly – we not only survived but prospered in what must be some of the most difficult and challenging tape of the past few decades. And for that we all should be very proud and more importantly – very grateful. Many thanks to everyone here who has been supporting the blog along the way – spiritually, intellectually, and of course financially. Trading wouldn’t be the same without you guys :-)

Since it’s our birthday and all I have decided to make this post a freebie – let’s get started:

The tape is running away from me and I already had to revise the SPX chart as we pushed into positive territory for the day. The odds for a 9th day lower would have been 0.19% – but as we are now green for the day as I’m typing this the odds for an eight consecutive day down would have been 0.31%. Plus we are outside both of my daily Bollinger – a lot further any of us would have thought we would plunge. But here we are and if you are still holding short – congrats – but it’s time to close those positions.

My RSI_EMA chart has been rather prescient when it comes to calling the swings. And it’s now telling me that a snapback is most definitely on the table.

The daily Zero had been calling fowl on the recent push higher and now it’s suggesting that we are at a long term support line (on the smoothed panel in the center). Of course this is again a long term indicator and if we happen to close lower today it would not change the fact that we are quite extended to the downside here.

After a relentless multi-day drop the spoos (i.e. S&P E-Mini futures) look rather hopeless on the daily net-lines buy side – the right hand panel. But the hourly is giving us a cluster of net-lines between 1256 and 1258. If you new here you probably don’t know that we have followed net-lines for a few months now and that I most recently decided to code the rules into an indicator as shown above. When playing with the settings I discovered that instead of expiring old net-lines keeping overlapping valid buy-lines on the map was actually rather helpful. Today’s hourly panel shows what I mean – whenever I see a push above a cluster of valid buy lines I definitely take note as I believe that this increases the validity of the push higher (and of course the same applies to net-lines sell signals and the downside).

Similar picture again on the AUD/JPY – we definitely need to a floor pattern here or we may just continue sliding down those lower Bollinger bands.

Quite some insane continuation move on the 20-year treasuries. We must be outside the 4th standard deviation at this point – which shows us how much fear and confusion there currently is in the market. And as the old saying goes – when there’s blood in the street, buy property.

As expected the gold bugs are pounding their chest. Last week I suggested that we may see a continued push higher and that I wasn’t comfortable being short gold unless we’d push outside that 25-day Bollinger. I’m glad I listened to my own advice as this was a nasty short squeeze. I have no idea how much more mojo gold has to offer but I’m not touching it unless I see at least an inside candle. That push outside the BB seems to evade us for now as those BBs are climbing rather steeply. So we need to see them flatten out a bit first – perhaps we’ll see a brief drop followed by another candle higher – hopefully this time outside both Bollingers. Anyway, be careful trying to short this thing – wait for the right moment, like an inside candle, a variation sell signal, etc. – that doji (if it remains) would be a good start.

Crude is pushing toward our second target around the 90 mark. If you took this short trade at the net-lines sell level then I suggest you start taking profits. That was one juicy trade – congrats if you took it.

Cheers,

Mole


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Anonymous

    Thanks for the Updates and Happy 3rd Birthday Mole.  

    I just put a comment on the last thread so I’m transferring it over to this one.

    Had kind of a nightmarish situation this morning.  I think most of us get accustomed to using various charts and indicators that we come to rely on.  I’ve been using streaming quotes from the TDAMTD Command Center because I liked the color scheme and the ease of use.  I also have been using the TDAMTD Strategy Desk for my 15 Minute Charts on the SPX among others.  And I’ve been using the TOS 5 Minute Charts for ES, GC and SI among others.

    Well this morning when the SPX went down hard, I was watching my Strategy Desk SPX Chart and my Command Center for streaming quotes.  

    What I didn’t realize was that the data was corrupted.  By the time I realized that the data was bad, the SPX had already turned and I missed the turn by about 5 Points or so.  Needless to say, I was one pissed off camper.  So I called to complain and they comped me 50 Trades but this is not the first time it has happened on the Command Center but it was the first time it happened on the Strategy Desk when both were screwed up at the same time.

    The TOS Platform is a lot more stable so I will run everything from it from now on.  

    I’m also waiting for a review from RBW, on OH as I have that platform already locked and loaded and all I have to do is fund it.  

    There is absolutely no excuse for bad data on a trading platform.

  • http://thefxspeculator.blogspot.com Onorio

    Happy birthday Mole! It has been a pleasure to be a part of this community :)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good to have you – thanks!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I actually responded to you over there.

  • tradingmom

    I don’t use Strategy Desk, but I do use the basic TD platform and I noticed that the streaming quotes didn’t match the non-streaming ones, and were way off from what Stockcharts.com was showing (I get their real-time quotes too.)  Pretty ticked off. 

  • Anonymous

    I have both ToS and OH. OH has a great pricing structure, and interestingly I seem to get better fills there. That being said the web platform is clunky and would scare me doing anything “heavy duty”. For example, there is a 30 or 60 min. idle logout, and while it’s been better lately, the reliability of website was frequently not so reliable. It’s been solid the past few months tho.

    Fwiw I mostly have the ToS full client on and if I want to make trades to my OH account I’ll log in through the browser, make the trades, and log back out.

    It’s distressing to me that AMTD picked up ToS. Think that will the the end of ToS as we know it.

  • Anonymous

    ..and of course, Happy Posting Birthday Mole!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I would grudgingly agree – we should enjoy the time we have left with TOS. Was very depressed when AMTD bought them out.

  • volar

    Happy B Day ES

  • Anonymous

    Congrats on being 3 ES.  Thanks for all the great info / advice.  I’ve been on vacation and in cash and am now back and ready to trade the tape.  Clearly I have some catching up to do on the posts!

  • Anonymous

    Congrats on passing beyond those terrible two’s!  Does this mean that we will no longer enjoy any of your well deserved tantrums? :p

  • Anonymous

    Happy Birthday Mole!  A LEO it would seem….that explains a lot….

  • Anonymous

    Congrats for the amazing job you’ve been doing!

    Mole – when you enter a trade on NLBL or NLSL daily signal where do you usually put your stop loss?

    Thanks

  • Anonymous

    You can set up a virtual account, as with most things. Kick the tires. Complain about the GUI.

    I got a nice fill during the flash crash so I can’t complain too much about fills. But, I wouldn’t use any web-based trading platform for anything high-speed. Too many clicks. Oh, and it runs fine on IE, but seems to be better – memory wise – on something else (like chrome).

    However, for non-futures and non-forex, it is cheap.

  • Anonymous

    Got your reply on the last thread Mole thanks.

    Trading Mom,

    did you take a look at the new TDAMTD Architect?  I did and it is awful IMO. I think it takes many steps backwards from what they already have.   They appear to have dumbed it down way too much.

    RacerXX,

    thanks for the info on OH, I might be asking you more questions on it in the days to come.  I’ll also be asking RBW about it once he becomes live with OH.

    Tooncez ,

    $3.95 per stock trade and 5 Option Contracts for $5.00 among other Option Deals is looking pretty good about now.  

    I’ve got 48 more free trades to use up with TDAMTD and as I get closer I’ll be asking a lot more questions about OH.

    I’ve been with TDAMTD since 1998 and change is hard but it may be something I have to do. 

  • Anonymous

    In the green! Sounds nice.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I hate to say this but it kind of depends – after a close above the NL level I put it below of course – if there is a recent candle close by I often pick its low. Maybe I can offer a few suggestions going forward.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    I have mellowed out over the years – unless of course being asked about those VIX rules – grrrrrrr….!!!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    There he is – was wondering if you had washed out. Welcome back!

  • http://thebhbgroup.com TheBHBgroup

    Happy bday from disney world…with my family and not trading but held my puts until yesterday based on the zero’s daily big picture…in cash for a 1-2 day pop and the  probably short again from there……ES is an amazing place thanks Mole.

  • Anonymous

    Interesting: Looks like they have a user-settable inactivity timeout now. Can set up to 8 hours:

    https://www.optionshouse.com/trading-on-optionshouse/new-feature-set-your-own-logout-time/

    Also, use the Chrome browser to run the web platform. It is worlds faster with Java apps.

    I still think if you’re going to be heavy trading you’re better off using a full platform. Unf. they still don’t offer that capability. Maybe if enough people lean on them they’ll change their mind.

  • Anonymous

    Interesting: Looks like they have a user-settable inactivity timeout now. Can set up to 8 hours:

    https://www.optionshouse.com/trading-on-optionshouse/new-feature-set-your-own-logout-time/

    Also, use the Chrome browser to run the web platform. It is worlds faster with Java apps.

    I still think if you’re going to be heavy trading you’re better off using a full platform. Unf. they still don’t offer that capability. Maybe if enough people lean on them they’ll change their mind.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Have fun down there!

  • Fearless

    Mole, happy b-day from an old pal!

    Anyone remember July 1 2010? No NYMO positive divergence, and straight line down. Touched off 38.2% retracement. Not calling a bottom, but can’t ignore the possibility.

  • Zero % forever

    Tran,DJX and Rut all came back from low and kissed yesterdays low/today’s open and struggling.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Interesting moves on short to medium term treasury yields in the past few days:

    http://content.screencast.com/users/evilspeculator/folders/Jing/media/de718716-6bf7-4b72-8fad-4131e82bcfc4/00002829.png

  • volar

    You have been missed here Fearless!

    Nice to see you again.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    What I find most interesting actually is how they all converged on the bottom around mid July.

  • Anonymous

    Three years; there is an amazing amount of effort that has gone into making this site happen every day over that time.
    Congratulations and thanks Mole; I’m a better trader technically and mentally because of it.

  • Zero % forever

    I trade thro Quote tracker from TDAmeritrade. Most of the time ok.(wireless internet+notebook+sitting half way across Asia in remote small town)
    I have TOS too but TOS does not store data (just in time thro Internet)
    I like to pore over 20 day tick data and Daily charts with out internet even.
    If there is a outage and if I call them ,will get comp 10-20 free trades.But who is going to call ISD in the middle of the night and wait for them to answer.So I dont bother.
    Option House etc -Not workable for Non Resident Alien a/c’s
    Eiether IB or TDAMTD/OXPS  works for foreign customers.
    After 3 years with TDAMTD (before IB & OXPS too),now Im paying $5 ticket + 0.75 for options.  

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You guys should also play with this – one of my favorite tools:

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/yieldcurve.html

  • Anonymous

    Thanks RacerXX

    I already use Chrome as my default browser and my Java Apps are all up to date so no problem there.

    I’ve been doing pretty much hedged short term swings and average around 2 to 3 trades per day ( some of them are just overnight trades).   I don’t have the stomach for heavy duty day trading anymore.  :)

    At this rate, it’ll take about 16 Days to burn through my remaining 48 Free Trades.   But I’ll probably make a decision before then.  I also have the OH System already downloaded so I might try running it without it being funded.  The only problem with it being unfunded is that they wont open up their charting system.  

    OTOH, I just thought if I switched and didn’t like OH Charts I could always pay $10 Bucks a month for Stock Charts Dot Com and get live charts from them.  It might be worth it.  

    I don’t know.  It’s a lot to think about but I’m definitely on the fence right now.

  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    A FREEBIE! WooHoo.
    (I shall scroll back up and read sloooowly.)

    looks like DOW 11750’ish was defended…for now.
    could be a dead cat bounce, who knows!?

    Happy B-Day
    I’d be Evil.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Every pepsi commercial of recent, I’ve been thinking of Fearless.
    gimme 5 
    Hi-paw!

  • Anonymous

    Great to see you dropping by!
    You trading or still out of markets?

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    clustering buy-lines – I like it.

    I’ve seen yearly and quarterly pivots cluster, and while not guaranteed. 
    price never slips through without a fight!

    -GG

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • Anonymous

    Mole, can we get a Daily Zero update please? I’d like to see how that plays out over the next few days.

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    sometimes the BP chart just does squat when renkos are set.  
    I was expecting that.
    surprise, it actually printed lower today.
    RISK Off.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p84652413203

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    heheheee

  • Anonymous

    Only futures trade that survived was /6S, going strong.

  • Anonymous

    what does Renkos mean?

  • slickwilly

    Renko charts are price charts with rising and falling diagonal lines of boxes that are either filled or hollow. 
    Google it you google head.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    A little bit like P&F charts.

  • Anonymous

    my bad. still learning here. bear with me

  • http://profiles.google.com/zelmodex eric coble

    Happy Birthday and Congratulations! 
     
    Check It out. Today’s a freebee  
    While the whole world seems to be loosing their heads.

    The WilliamBanzai7 Blog
    And our leaders fail to measure up. 

     
     It is a good thing you are in your evil lair guiding the unclean masses with a steady hand.
     

    Protecting the people from danger.
     

    And, though the right path is not always clear.

    At the end of the day the journey is appreciated!

    See: EVIL SPECULATOR TURNS THREE

    See:dFor the best tell of the tape on the net, check out the evil speculator – one nefarious trade at a time – See the Evil set up we posted on Monday: THE STOCK MARKET

  • http://twitter.com/MNtweetes MNtweetes

    Hppy b’day Mole.  Thank you for the freebie.

    Great site, very generous service and always the voice of rationality in my morning market assessment ritual.

    Lurker in Oz…

  • raised_by_wolves

    Beer with me. :-)

  • raised_by_wolves

    So, there’s normal, flat, and inverted yield curves. According to the chart, we’ve had normal since 2008. Are we looking for that to change to confirm a trend change? (Maybe there ain’t no trend change).

  • http://profiles.google.com/zelmodex eric coble

    I obviously don’t know how to work this program SEE:

    EVIL SPECULATOR TURNS THREE

  • http://profiles.google.com/zelmodex eric coble
  • http://wadecapitalmanagement.typepad.com/blog/ Duuuuuude

    Happy Birthday Mole!  Seems like yesterday!

  • http://wadecapitalmanagement.typepad.com/blog/ Duuuuuude
  • Anonymous
  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Silver is for the 25th anniversary, let’s start 22 years early.

    http://tinypic.com/r/2qckzyw/7

  • Anonymous

    Welcome back old polar bear!

  • http://practicalt.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Look what the cat dragged in! :-)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey there – long time no see!

  • Anonymous

    No no – still here.  I mentioned awhile ago I was cooling off till Aug.  Cabo and Tahoe back to back vacations.  It was nice to be offline for a few days.  Funny enough, I kept getting trade alert texts for Helter Scalper.  Would love to see you roll up some results and tell us how it has been performing.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks mate – appreciate the good wishes. Mad Photoshop skills to boot!

  • Anonymous

    NDX bounced off the 200ma and has set up a swing day for tomorrow.

  • Anonymous

    looking for a good forex brokerage. I live in the US. thanks is advance.

  • Anonymous

    Nice post Mole, made special effort to visit on your Birthday :-)
    Got long dollar Yen, think market caught wrong way round going to well supported on any dip. Also short EUR think that will be the next to give. Also set in 30 year US bonds, um no guess which way. 

  • Anonymous

    Happy B day Mole! Time goes fast so why are you still in L.A. and not 1ooo miles north of it?

  • Anonymous

    Good for a whip!