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Happy New (Jewish) Year!
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Happy New (Jewish) Year!

by The MoleSeptember 18, 2012

Welcome to the year 5773. William Gibson almost nailed it in Neuromancer – evil corporations rule the world and most of us are jacked into the matrix. Unfortunately we neither have flying cars nor cyber sex, which perhaps would at least make up for some of the former.

Seriously now- it’s the second day of Rosh Hashanah (Jewish New Year) and thus the tape remains to be pretty muted. I’m glad that some of you hardcore ratlings showed up for work – don’t worry I won’t tell your rabbi. I actually read up a little on the Jewish calendar and find it fascinating that it’s based on the lunar cycle instead of the solar one. Apparently Jewish law appears to state that Rosh Hashanah is to be celebrated for two days, due to the difficulty of determining the date of the new moon. I wonder if we could map market turning points to major Jewish holidays Chris Carolan style – if you know his work then you know that he’s all over that lunar calendar.

So our inside day on crude got taken to the cleaners yesterday. We are currently slightly below this daily NLSL (the tape moved a bit since I took the snapshot) and if we close the day below then we have a bonafide short entry.

On the daily we see dual support being threatened. First there’s the NLSL and then there’s also the 25-day SMA. Should both give then I think we may be dropping quite a bit lower.

A quick reminder that we are also at the 100-week AND 25-month SMA. So let’s settle on the 94 mark as our proverbial LT line in the sand. That would also be the lower 25-day BB line and a breach of all that support is an opportunity I won’t let slip through my fingers. Of course this also makes for excellent bounce territory. Depending where you take your entry you can play this either way – I think I have provided sufficient context to place your stops but in a pinch 92 or 93 would do fine if you decide to go for a bounce here.

ZN futures gave us a nice long entry yesterday morning. Odds are you probably missed it but we are now testing the 100-hour SMA which I think may make for a good reload or second opportunity to be long. Only trouble here is that it’s dropping a bit too fast for my taste, so decide on your stop and stick with it! Remember, you can’t grab ’em all – never worry about missing an entry and keep it clean.

Ole’ bucky gave us a great ID entry yesterday. If you snoozed that one then watch for a 100-hour SMA breach today or tomorrow. May be your second chance. Frankly I really hope we’re seeing a bit of a counter move here as I’m going to L.A. soon and the exchange rate is killing me right now. Fortunately I kept a stash of Dollars at hand but still.

Now before we get to the setups a quick peek at the spoos.We did get our ID day entry yesterday albeit it wasn’t as juicy as I had hoped when I put it on the board as we moved a bit lower. In any case we are now right at the 100-hour SMA and that will be the first test. If the bears can’t drop it below 1450 then they frankly don’t deserve this prime opportunity.

More where that came from – please step into my lair:
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More charts and non-biased commentary below for anyone donning a secret decoder ring. If you are interested in becoming a Gold member then don’t waste time and sign up here. And if you are a Zero or Geronimo subscriber it includes access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.
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USD/CHF – unfortunately we have a busted ID entry. But don’t lose all hope just yet as we may get a decent entry at the 100-hour SMA. Not ideal but we are looking at possible downside support here, so assuming we get there it may be worth a few lottery tickets.

NZD/USD – right at the 100-hour SMA. As we just hit some daily resistance I am waiting for that SMA breach. It’s been trying but thus far unsuccessful. However, I also don’t see much buying interest right now so perhaps we are getting that entry today or tomorrow.

Cable – juicy inside day + NR4 – the dot below means it’s also the lowest volume in the past four days. Obviously we are waiting for a breach of the low here – I am not interested in a long position.

And that is the reason why – we are outside the 100-day Bollinger and are painting a small range ID + NR4. Frankly this are the kind of setups I dream of. Let’s hope we get that short breach tomorrow.

EUR/USD – this is the best setup I can come up with here. I was hoping for an ID yesterday but we did get a possible exhaustion candle. That is good, and I would consider a loss of the 100-h SMA a decent entry. Let’s take if we get it.

AUD/USD – touching double support – there’s the 25-day SMA plus a NLSL. Should produce some buying interest – if not then it’s a short opportunity.

AUD/JPY – at the 25-day SMA and testing its 100-hour SMA as well. I want to be long here with a stop below that SMA. If she breaches then I would not take a short position as there’s too much support lurking below. Not impossible it’ll drop through all that but I prefer to go for the easy setups. Trading is difficult as it is – no sense in making things more complicated, right?

Copper – another ID that bit the dust yesterday. So let’s try this one more time, shall we?

Cotton – interesting formation. It’s wedged between two daily SMAs and a NLBL. Whatever side wins will probably be handsomely rewarded. So keep an eye on this one, I think we are getting close.

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Cheers,

 


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • I Bergamot

    Shana Tova!
    Hey, I’ll  celebrate any holiday, that allows drinking.
    As for Jewish Holidays, i have a general rule not to do anything drastic when decision-makers are away and offices are overrun by degenerate gamblers.

  • Joe_Jones

    Well if we don’t get the sell off by EOD I’ll close the shorts as the SPX hourly looks more and more as a bull flag

  • Skynard

    Watch for a fake out, greeny still pointing down.

  • Skynard

    Have a feeling these bulls going to get slaughtered. Dollar surging right now, 5 min div.

  • newbfxtrader

    Profit taking. Don’t back the truck short. Wait for the pullback and then BTFD!

  • AMCabrera

    pulling the usd/chf and putting buy order right above the highs for today. (daily chart)

  • I Bergamot

    Looking at 1440SPX, as a great shake-out for all late bulls from last Thurs-Friday. What does Mole says about empty buses? Well, this one doesn’t look so empty now. I don’t even see much profit taking, just pretty orderly ES roll. Sell Rosh, buy Yom…again

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    The setups just keep
    coming who’d of thought it on opex week?

  • Joe_Jones

    Bond traders seem in risk off mode, at least for now:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK:TLT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52396743779

  • BobbyLow

    Great Stuff as usual Mole.

    Regarding Oil, I got an early entry yesterday but perhaps I could add a little to what you said.

    Here is a P&F Chart that says if we can get down to 93.61, it might be SHTF time. :) 

    http://screencast.com/t/2iowzoli1P 

  • Joe_Jones

    I don’t like posting ZH stuff here but this chart shows the bus is quite empty now:
    http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2012/09/20120918_avetrade.png

    Plus puts on SPY are at 3 y low

  • Skynard

    Second that for sure (licking chops)

    Mole, any thought on T-Notes?

  • newbfxtrader

    Bus moves faster when everyone gets off!

  • AMCabrera

    It is looking like 1.3000 is the last bulge of shorts that need to get out of the way. If I see that they start cashing in now to minimize losses I will go short at 1.3000. It is amazing how many orders went long the past 100 pips…BUT they have been convinced. 1.3030 IMO is a very important line.

  • Skynard

    Might jump on that cable trade, looks juicy:)
    /6C has some catching up to do here.

  • convictscott

    Thats very very interesting. The guy at emini-watch does stuff on 3 min charts with average spoo trade size, and he calls those trade size spikes “professional bars” indicating pros taking profits or pros getting set.

    Nice one :)

  • convictscott

    Ahh this is the emini-watch indicator

  • Skynard

    AUDJPY slipping

  • Joe_Jones

    ZH probably got his OK to publish his proprietary tools. Very interesting stuff indeed, and judging by the average trade side, we should get some volatility soon. On another note, what’s your view on AUDJPY direction. I know Mole is not really enthusiastic about the short side. I am not sure why.

  • Joe_Jones

    Good call about the fake out bull earlier today. I’m glad I held 1/2 position short techs.  I missed the entry on AUDJPY, but I am eyeing EURUSD short tonight, same entry as AMC.

  • Skynard

    Here is an hourly chart. Looking like a bear, especially if that 25 crosses the 100:)

    AUDJPY in similar shape right now

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks good

  • Joe_Jones

    Looking at the top campaign contributors, GOP has the side of Wall Street this time, and the Big Boys always make sure to win.

  • Skynard

    JPY monetary statement should be interesting. Anyone know when that information is released?

  • Skynard

    That’s unusual, don’t you think?

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    /CT also has a 25WMA at 76.95

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Still tentative on this calender
    Worldeconomiccalender.com

  • Skynard

    There’s the head hunters:)

  • Skynard

    Check out where AUDJPY found resistance. Exactly where the 2 SMA’s meet.

  • Skynard

    Ah, they rolled in over. Thanks.

  • ridingwaves

    Romneister dug his own grave with the latest gaffe…its over…

    I was surprised to see Mole post on Kunstler-first comment
    http://kunstler.com/blog/2012/09/what-does-it-mean.html 

  • Rightside_ot_trade

    Guess we didn’t need no stinkin
    calender ;-p

  • Skynard

    Adding to AUDJPY on this ramp:) Dollar likes it!

  • Skynard

    LOL, go figure. Seen it listed on Forex Factory on the 18th 1 minute, then after your reply checked and it was moved to the 19th and BOOM back to the 18th! They sure know how to fuck people don’t they? You think that was a coincidence?

  • Joe_Jones

    Not really unusual. Looking at the last two elections, one would have wanted to bet on the same side as GS’s biggest contribution.  I could only get data for top contributors from the 2004 elections. (
    http://www.opensecrets.org)

    plus look at that pattern:
    1992: incumbent R, SPX during Sept – October: almost unchanged, winner: D
    1996: incumbent D, SPX during Sept – October: strong bull , winner: D
    2000: incumbent D, SPX during Sept – October: strong bear , winner: R
    2004: incumbent R, SPX during Sept – October: strong bull , winner: R 
    2008: incumbent R, SPX during Sept – October: strong bear , winner: D 

    Coincidence? mmm..

    So if we follow the above, for the incumbent to win this November we would need    to rally even more in the next few weeks. Now, how likely is it since QE3 is already priced in? I am betting hardly earned coin that we gonna hear a lot of squealing this October.

  • Joe_Jones

    forgot the tables

  • Joe_Jones

    I just went short AUDJPY and EURUSD. Calling bullshit the ramp.

  • Skynard

    Nice adding to my short positions as well, thanks for digging up the info:)

  • Skynard

    That is one hell of a stop run, ah?

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    Why do you think its a stop run and not a legit move ?

  • Joe_Jones

    Fuck yeah. I hope that it turns down before hitting my stops because that will be painful. :(

  • Skynard

    100 pips? How would that be classified as a legit move. What do you call legit?

  • Skynard

    Think it turns hard. How wide is your stop?

  • Joe_Jones

    50 pips for both trades. And yes, I expect that hard turn too.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    Stop run is something that reverses soon after. Legit is something that sticks.

    Euro went up 100 pips after Benny…. The move didn’t reverse…. Hence legit.

  • Skynard

    Check it out:)

  • Joe_Jones

    Thanks. I didn’t see that. I used the top 100 BB on 60 min AUDJPY as my uncle point.

  • Skynard

    Could get a lower high even with a ramp such as this:) Diagonals, use them allot.

  • Joe_Jones

    I like the sound of that 😉
    Alright, signing out. Stops and profit targets set. Tomorrow is another day.

  • ridingwaves

    you forget that obama didn’t put anyone in jail for the biggest heist ever…they are most happy with gutless obama and holder…we are forked both ways..

  • Skynard

    Trading the news is not legit to me:)

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    After everything said n done, *every* decent size move is news driven – its just that sometimes we mere mortals come to know of tge news after the move.

  • http://www.mylifemytrade.com/ MyLifeMyTrade

    Agree trading news is not legit :)

  • convictscott

    Joe, AUDJPY is a carry trade, which has a natural upward bias. I have learnt over the years that just because carry trade charts look the same as stock charts, does not mean they behave the same.

    On any rational basis that chart is bearish as hell, looking like a large scale failed retest of a major high. On a short term basis we are at the top of a bollinger band and (incomplete day) painting a potential retest variation sell.

    Thats a potential good setup.

    However the majority (98%) of the world’s currency trading is done in the interbank forward market, where you get paid a premium (and a significant one) to be long. The big players are more likely to hold through bearish setups, and statistically bullish setups outperform bearish ones.

    I know it looks good, but I see what Mole is getting at. I wouldn’t be long OR short here

  • Tronacate

    l gg  s zs   l es  …….still

  • Tronacate

    Looking for gg to continue squeezing higher

  • Jontrader

    How do I  recreate the purple Bollinger Band?

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/5041a2a8-0feb-455f-b3bb-a7bb4d91f70a/2012-09-19_0721.png
    This short bulge really needs to get out of the way for the eur/usd to continue lower.

  • Joe_Jones

    What a pleasant surprise! The trades ended up in good profit. :)

  • Schwerepunkt

    Mole uses 100-period and 25-period BBs.

  • BobbyLow

    Mornin Folks,

    It was nice to draw first blood on the Forex as I got stopped out for a gain on my EUR/USD Short last night.  I’ll wait to see if it’s going to bounce before I get back in.  

  • bdoone

    Joe, I know you like the jnk:tlt chart, as do I.  Heres what I look at with SPX overlaid:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JNK:TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05104281505&a=203578736&listNum=2 

  • Joe_Jones

    Same here

  • Skynard

    Not to be greedy but think we are heading lower. /CL getting whacked:)

  • BobbyLow

    If I make another entry on this Pair, I’m going to wait until at least 10 AM to decide which direction I want to go.

    In the mean time, Oil is off to a great start.   :)

  • Joe_Jones

    Waiting for AMC’s bulge mentioned below to go away. Perhaps after amateur hour? 😉

  • BobbyLow


    /CL getting whacked:)”

    How sweet it is!  

  • BobbyLow

    One word of Caution on Oil for today is that it is Wednesday and the Petroleum Status Report is do out at 10:30 AM.  

    Quite often we can get a lot of rockin and rollin just before and shortly after this report “after which we shall return to our regularly scheduled broadcast”.  :)

  • AMCabrera

    I had to change my avatar. Using one of my favorite stories to make a point is great.

  • Skynard

    Blood in the streets today:)

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Those are some nutty candles!

  • BobbyLow

    Fricken Oil is dropping like the digital numbers rise when pumping gas into your car.  

    This is good for mankind.  :)

  • Skynard

    Whoa, and another crazy candle which is shortable.

  • ridingwaves
  • BobbyLow

    Existing Home Sales?

    Could be a short lived bounce but who knows?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ 

  • Skynard

    Not trying to call a top by any means but this fiendish activity is idicitive of one.

  • ridingwaves

    thats gotta hurt, might scalp the sell off…aetna dropped all coverage of MS drug…
    http://s14.postimage.org/6eav65h6p/thats_gotta_hurt.jpg

  • Joe_Jones

    Looks like amateurs got rid of AMC’s morning bulge. 😉

    Jumping in short EURUSD

  • BobbyLow

    Another Build in Crude.  We still have almost a record amount of Crude Supply and yet they still pushed price up to a $100 last Friday.   

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/ What a bunch of bullshit.  

    Open Positions – Short Oil – Long PRU

  • newbfxtrader

    Relax! JBTFD.

  • BobbyLow

    Long EUR/USD

  • bdoone

    Nice.  As EUR/USD creeping higher, AUD/JPY is still in a well defined down channel on 15 min. since 2am but have seen too many times in past that trendline breeched to upside and explodes, taking everything with it.
    My shorts, if any, will be on a tight leash.

  • ridingwaves

    what a gift that was at 22….shi!!! hate those deer in headlight moments…

  • BobbyLow

    Thanks. We’ll see how it turns out.  

    This has been a very strange tape all around so far today.  :)

  • AMCabrera

    Yea I’ve entered short just now. I unloaded the two mini lots I had left at 1.30. I’ve enter a fresh short again at 1.3050.

  • BobbyLow

    Oh, Oh,

    You might have sold them to me.    :)

  • AMCabrera

    lol. we will see in all honesty I probably should have just kept my full short from 1.3150 going I really dont want to lose 50 pips if it decides to kiss 1.3100 again. However, my short in the aud/usd was just triggered and that seems to be more of quality.

  • Joe_Jones

    I fully agree on the strange part. 

  • Joe_Jones

    Who is the dude that you’ve used for your avatar?

  • ridingwaves

    great action in bio sector the last couple days….

  • AMCabrera

    jens weidmann

  • BobbyLow

    I know what you mean.  

    The hard part for me was when I set my stop for overnight, I wanted to leave some wiggle room but not so much room that it left a chance to destroy a decent profit.   So my Short got stopped out between Midnight and 1 AM.  Of course a great low was put in between 7 AM and 8 AM.  Then there is a thing called sleep and the older I get, the more necessary it becomes or my brain turns to mush.    :)

    The bottom line for me is that a losing trade is bad enough but to have a winning trade turn into a losing trade is worse.  So this was a nice kind of problem to have and I guess it’s just part of the game.  

  • Skynard

    Broadening signal on the 5 min again.

  • AMCabrera

    certainly is part of the game. one has to be very vigilant NOT to let that sort of price action make you liberal with stops (oh this is just a stop run Ill add 30 more pips). Original plans are always best course of action. 

  • itslance

    Approaching near term $vix support on the daily chart

  • ridingwaves

    The Squeeze in CYCC has been fun today…big money is playing low float bios right now…

    http://s8.postimage.org/alpui8uh1/squeeeze.jpg

  • BobbyLow

    Absolutely agree.

    Whether trading the regular market or Forex relying on hope is an account killer.   Been there done that.

    OMG, I’m trying to remain chilled out but Oil is giving me goosebumps.   :)

  • AMCabrera

    speaking of oil. The usd/nok is a perfect example how I was ultimately right but it nailed me hard because I kept holding and ADDING shorts during the first week of July. I let my ego get in the way that week and it hurt really bad.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice Mole signals in the past two days! Anyone seeing those?

  • BobbyLow

    Roger that!

    BTW, I just moved the stop on my EURO Long to BE.  

    I’m not liking the last two candles on the hourly.

    Of course things can change very quickly.  

  • Skynard

    /CL down 4%, WTF! Missed that boat.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/21ace1e3-c6f2-4ce0-b206-642ddfaec42d/2012-09-19_1324.png
    gonna be tough call. a raging battle it seems just occurred with many longs and short just being entered in this region.  My sights are set on the GBP/USD and the oceanic pairs (aud/usd and nzd/usd which was just entered short). The eur/usd really is tough to call right now with such a even order flow.

  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/59c7eced-cc73-4d14-b956-5e45e9ee4c0b/2012-09-19_1328.png
    nzd/usd could jump to .8350 which will make it a damn good short. But for now it is a fairly good short because of the overwhelming amount of long orders below ready to enter.

  • AMCabrera

    bueller…bueller…Sorry Kaiser I have not traded the spx at all and have barely looked at it. Does it even exist anymore 😉

  • BobbyLow

    AMC

    As you said, the EUR/USD has been tough call today.  I haven’t been stopped out yet so we’ll see what happens.  

    I’m also watching the GBP with ya. 

  • Skynard

    If we see lower prices that will be 2 for 2 on this signal since the last time it happened the market fell signifigantly.

  • Skynard

    Looking to short GBP? Have been waiting for that one as well.

  • Joe_Jones

    Agree. Spot on during whipsaw.

  • BobbyLow

    Yes, It’s very close.

  • BobbyLow

    Well that poor little bugger put up a valiant fight.  Price came down to a 100,000th three times before she went down.  RIP

    I had to watch it.  Sick, I know.  :)

    Stopped at BE on EUR/USD Long

  • I Bergamot

     I may be buying FB and Yelp before the end of  day.

  • ridingwaves

    why play it, as fearless or volar (my bad) stated a while back, its symbol short squeeze time in multiple sectors…candy all over the place…

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤  S H A K E   N ¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º° B A K E !“°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Scalps are scalps…

  • BobbyLow

    At first glance, the Equity Market looks comatose.  Here it is the middle of OPEX week and it doesn’t even look like it’ll break 100 Million Shares of SPY traded by 4PM.

  • ridingwaves

    true, QCOR was an epic one today…love those heavy sell off rebound scalps..kind of like a In/Out double double…

  • I Bergamot

     Got both. Tight stop