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Harden The F### Up
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Harden The F### Up

by The MoleAugust 11, 2017

Today’s post is dedicated to Scott Phillips, our resident enforcer and part time debt collector, who seems to have caught a bad break after what appears to have been a series of hare-brained decisions involving a mysterious Asian flu strain, mixed with over training, which was then exacerbated by excessive consumption of some long expired low cost GMO protein powder and unlabeled pain killers he found in some dirty dumpster around the corner. All of which combined of course put him straight in the ICU with acute kidney failure just a few days later. He’s actually lucky that he’s 10,000 km away as I feel tempted to personally come down and take him out of his misery for not taking better care of himself.

However on the upside, this may be a good time to borrow a large sum of money from him as repayment terms may just turn out to be extremely favorable. Hey – don’t pretend you didn’t already think of that yourselves, you sanctimonious bastards! Now don’t worry folks, I’m sure he’s in great hands as I have read nothing but good reviews on the Thai pet clinic they’re treating him in. Now Scott – if you’re reading this: In the name of all evil the steelrats and yours truly we wish you to…. harden the fuck up, you damn pussy! 

Of course I’m kidding folks, the poor bastard has really hit some hard times. Which however isn’t keeping him from trading on his death bed, now THAT is what I call dedication, people. Spot on mate! The video above features an update on his condition plus some trading advice I’m sure you will find most valuable. Feel better mate, we’re all rooting for you!

2017-08-11_spoos

Alright, he probably dosed off by now. Just between us – I say he’s pretending, so let’s move on. Equities continued downward yesterday with only one single haphazard attempt to reconquer VWAP which failed ignominiously. A bounce here is possible and we’ll have to assess the situation after the first hour or two today. If we see more red candles today and no green close at the end of the session then 2410 is where I would expect buyers to put up their first line of defense.

2017-08-11_UVOL_DVOL

DVOL on the NYSE was vastly outpacing UVOL yesterday and even the Zero indicator painted a pretty solid negative signal which spiked to -1.5. So selling was continuous and not just driven by a few bot farms from what I can tell.

2017-08-11_spoos_volume_profile

The volume profile now has us below the volume hold centered at 2450 and the next one starts at 2410 which also lines up with our 100-day BB on the chart above. I think the odds for at least a little bounce there are pretty high. But let’s see what happens today.

2017-08-11_DX_persp

Before we get to the campaigns I wanted to quickly revisit the situation on the Dollar. After iffy CPI numbers this morning the odds for a late year interest rate hike seem to have dropped to about 35%. Which of course is not favoring the DX this morning.

2017-08-11_USDJPY_persp

USD/JPY is now looking like it may just fall off the plate. This is usually where the BOJ steps in to stave off some damage but it appears their ballooning balance sheet has stirred up some push back arguing for steps toward ‘normalization’.  In other words, it’s possible that the Yen is going to keep strengthening here and that the BOJ will only step in once everyone panics and easing (cough printing) once again becomes politically viable.

2017-08-11_Euro_persp

And of course my arch nemesis, the EUR/USD, is already busy making my life in Europe a whole lot more expensive. I pretty much saw this coming earlier this week and have hedged myself a little to mitigate the impact of more strengthening in the Euro.

Campaign Updates

2017-08-11_crude_update

With got two runners and two losers today. Let’s start with crude which greatly disappointed as it was smacked down hard in yesterday’s session. Yes, just like natgas crude can be a cruel mistress – this one really looked like it was coming along.

2017-08-11_gold_update

Gold on the other hand is blasting higher and I just advanced my stop to about 2.2R. I think a preliminary target of 1300 is now in the cards, which is why I keep on trailing it below each new spike low.

2017-08-11_bonds_update

Bonds also getting out of the gate and I just moved my stop to break/even. This one does look very supportive on the daily panel, BUT so did crude and thus we’ll keep curb our enthusiasm for now.

2017-08-11_wheat_update

Wheat is the second loser, closely resembling what happened over in crude. I don’t see any valuable daily context here at this point and for now wheat is off the table until further notice.

ozzie_beer

I doubt I’ll find Ozzie brew over here in Spain, but will be toasting one in spirit to Scott’s rapid recovery. Cheers mate!! Get better soon!


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • BobbyLow

    Well Done Mole!

    He might still be hurting but I’m sure Scott got a few laughs out of your post. I know I did. :)

    On the trading front, I’m with you on riding the current move in Gold. We’ll see how far it goes.

  • ZigZag

    Good Job Scott! – Keep feeling better, as in alive.
    So spent all yesterday afternoon updating graphics drivers, to no avail – so of course what worked was shutting down everything – including power to the monitors, unplugging everything, and rebooting. Not too happy that I still don’t know what caused the problem. But it kept me from trying to catch knives yesterday as I realized I was out of sorts.
    Wheat and grains may have another entry in a few days once the volatility from the WASDE report calms down.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Everyone’s FYI, there’s medically demonstrated evidence for “cancer-prone personality” – a mentally-driven phenomena correlation with disease states, not just cancer. Its a lot like trading…we are each all responsible for everything.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Scott, I hope you recover as quickly and fully as possible. I’ve been wondering where you were this week. I’ll be sending some good vibes and prayers your way. Since I quit praying for the market to do what I wanted it to do, I need to spend that time and energy on a more worthwhile subject anyway.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    While waiting for this post, Mole’s slowing down.

    I did some reading.
    Scott’s not a bad guy! He just looks like one.
    😉

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d74ea08be96ae6c45888a8142b25ff179966640fe818a220a3e45791ab6bcadd.png

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ps. Your face is all swole with that fish eye camera.

    or was Italy?
    “blowing out my diet in Italy for a month”
    😉

    EDIT: Marriage will do that to a guy.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    “All roads lead to reboot”
    You’ll get better with time.

  • Tomcat
  • BobbyLow

    Speaking of Nuclear Holocaust, here is a film that the Civil Defense showed us kids in grammar school in the 50’s. You might want to fast forward it to about the 2 minute mark when it goes into the classroom to tell us how to remain safe in the event of a nuclear bomb.

    Keep in mind that this film was made a few years after Hiroshima and Nagaski. It is called “Duck and Cover”. It’s so full of shit that it is almost laughable. It’s hard to believe they were serious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_1jkLxhh20

  • Tomcat

    This reminds of the whole duct taping the house against bio threats:
    http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/02/11/emergency.supplies/
    Are you suggesting that duck and cover is not effective?

  • Ronebadger

    VIX “hardening” up…at 15+ right now…down less than a point from yesterday

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good eye, Roger that one.

  • BobbyLow

    LOL Yeah when the Duck and Cover Film was made they already had historical evidence of the devastation that the bombs made in Japan. So they absolutely lied. The film “Duck and Cover” was code for BEND OVER AND PLACE YOUR HEAD FIRMLY BETWEEN YOUR LEGS. THEN KISS YOUR ASS GOODBYE.

    Regarding Duct Tape to prevent against bio threats, have you ever had an attack from outside ants coming into your house? If ants can get inside from anywhere, so can bio infected air.

    Main thing is to remain calm though. :)

  • Wave_surfer

    Is this video serious ?!? Is a nuclear blast _really_ strong enough to even break windows?? I am not so sure about that, but it is good that if we get a warning, we will have enough time to get to a school – where we will be safe from nuclear explosions!
    This is a great reminder of how well we can trust our government to be fully honest and upfront with us.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Its funny all the pessimism; not saying it isn’t realistic, but the whole point is simply to do what we can do. Its morale-preserving for all the time of the most likely scenario that nothing will in fact ever happen when a defined procedure exists. The take home is akin to having defied procedures for market Black Swans – it helps overall morale.

  • Julie

    This a.m. covered USO short as it came down to confluence of lower trend line ; 55 ema and 21 conversion line The gain was very small …. Nice that Scott replied to me last evening .. Do not want him to over do anything
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    I remember elementary school in the 60s, making us stick our heads under the desk, or moving to stand against the hallway walls…I was an idiot, I was 10 or 11 …didn’t really understand what the heck was going on … just did what I was told.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…sure seems to take a pretty long time for us get any real handle on life.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    I had to find out the hard way. There was this subtle sign on our church. “Mom, what is a fallout shelter”?
    https://notablecharacters.files.wordpress.com/2013/04/fallout-shelter.jpg?w=660

    it was downhill from there..

  • Julie

    MARK GDX LEVEL 1 Taken from 66.98 — 12,40 JULIE

    66.98
    63.94 .94427

    62.06 .90983
    59.36 .8541
    54.09 .76393
    46.13 .61803
    39.59 .5
    33.24 .38196
    25.28. .23606
    20.36 .14589
    17.32 .09016
    13.09 .05572

    12.40

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    told ya.
    =P

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/54bb082825ea2a2cfd0283050960acdd53bebdd2ace924b5ca8e42562969ad48.png

    For my next Trick I’m gonna pull a rabbit out of my hat.

  • Mark Shinnick

    This dead cat thing surely must have a little more mojo in it…if so should arrive pretty soon.

  • Julie

    MARK GDX LEVEL 1 IN REPLY BELOW
    Applicable Level 2
    25.28 Level 1
    24,12 .76393
    23.40 .61803
    .22.82 .5
    22.24 .38196
    21.52 .23606
    20.36 Level1
    19.64 .76393
    19.19 .61803
    18.84 .5
    18.48 .38196
    18.03 .23606
    17.32 Level 1
    LEVEL 3 WILL BE LATER
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    How’s my crew? Everyone already off for the weekend?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    what does that upper line connect to?

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    BTW, be careful charting VIX ETFs – they do not follow the VIX and constantly play catch up.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    The high of Nov 2016 & the High of Dec 2016.
    I know two data points. Comic relief.
    no one’s getting rich off this chart.
    😉

  • Julie

    GDX so far today high within 2 cents of level 3 (.76393) and low exactly level 3 (.23606)
    Will post Level 3 over the weekend at nite
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah…but there it is at least for the time being, and that’s forever enough in this wily thing.

  • Mary

    Why does your HOD show 24.04 and mine shows 27.79?

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, there we go.

  • Mark Shinnick

    22.79 ?

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Photoshop.

    but seriously,
    I have no idea.

  • BobbyLow

    I actually have a very positive view for the most part in that every day my family’s health is reasonably good and everyone is safe then I’ve had a good day. Less importantly on the trading front, after a shitty start this week I’m back to even so all in all, I have no complaints.

    However, one of the many things I have absolutely no control over is some weak minded insecure SOB pushing a button that kills a bunch of innocent people. If one of these bombs hit where I live, I would be toast and so be it. But I would be grateful for having a good and fairly long life. OTOH, when I think of those who would have never had a chance to live a long life, this makes me angry and leaves me asking why? So I try not to think about this part too much. . .

  • Mary

    TVIX HOD is 22.79. I typed 27.79 by mistake. GG chart shows 24.04.

  • BobbyLow

    Doin good Boss. Even though it’s probably necessary to unwind, I actually miss this stuff on weekends. :)

  • Julie

    Great Chief ! Mole You and Everyone Have A Great Weekend
    JULIE

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yeah, that’s his projection – still seems pretty credible.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    ok, for the record 17 months ago,
    http://evilspeculator.com/bear-traps-galore/#comment-2548131053

    I said to chart the VIX, not the TVIX.

    and that VIX link still works pretty dam good, for nearly 2 years old.
    [VIX]
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p76661782220

    -GG

  • Mark Shinnick

    Pretty tough racket this long vol stuff, ones game has to be so friggin spot-on.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    that’s why I come here. iron sharpens iron.

  • Mark Shinnick

    …at least in the russell anyway, but still looking like continuation.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    dollar slipping,

    92 seems so far away.

    http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=h1

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • Julie

    Hi Mole IMO looks like a consolidation to go lower….. Just Saying
    JULIE

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Well, we’re above VWAP and the Z-sig is positive. So until that reverses I think there’s a good chance it’ll resolve upward into the close. Of course participation is minimal = surprise moves can happen.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    I took a small long position at the close yesterday, so I’m hanging around and watching to see what happens. Would like to close it out today instead of leaving it for Kim Jong Un to shoot at over the weekend.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Now THAT is the spirit :-)

  • Julie

    Mole I have 2446.40 cash as an important level
    JULIE

  • StockTalker

    Global markets are down, vehicles such as TVIX is showing strength. Bears are apparently close lurking.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Yes…got that look..right exactly here….CB a form of blowoff.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    A bit risky but I hope it’ll work out for ya.

  • Julie

    GG BAC looking for a bounce approx 23.71 which is the daily 89 ema ; 38% retracement and the 21 conversion line weekly ichimoku cloud.23.74 is a horizontal support. GG Have A Great Weekend ! My husband says “HELLO”
    JULIE

  • Julie

    Mark GDX If you were to take a .61803 level 3 between Level 2 computations 23.40 and 22.82 you will have 23.18 GDX right at 23.17 as I type
    JULIE

  • BKXtoZERO

    Get well Scott!! Love BK xxx ooo xxx ooo

  • Mark Shinnick

    L or S right now?

  • Julie

    Neither Mark GDX up into upper bollinger band and approaching overbought Stochs 5,3,3 and CCI (20) Possibly printing a spinning top today with lower volume. GDX is showing strong tecnicals i.e. 21 ema now above the 55 ema and both are pointing up. Price above the daily 233 ema which is positive Also price above the daily cloud. CHART
    JULIE https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/008a25326c5a95442f54e15dcd5ad914d5c7410aca330eeee5db7ad3527e72df.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    My other tools say same, or to even reshort miners.

  • Julie

    Mark I would like to long a pullback…..
    JULIE

  • Ronebadger

    VIX positive at 3:30 EDT
    somebody is buying insurance to take home with them over the weekend…

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Markets going to the dogs, so it could be just about anybody.
    {wink}
    http://www.therecasts.com/images/cars/mary.jpg

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    coming up on support.
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p75176490247

    If you husband is as successful as you say, you must be…
    A TROPHY WIFE!!
    LOL.

  • OzarkHillBilly

    Thanks. I got out with a small profit and ended up with a couple of cards still on the table for next week.

  • Julie

    I am a blue eyed blond LOL !
    JULIE

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    I couldn’t sleep so got up to do some work (it’s 3am here). This post made me literally laugh out loud. Thanks Mole, and thank you everyone for the kind wishes.

    I feel like I’ve turned a corner. I definitely don’t think I’m dying. And my wife got me this little guy yesterday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6be50b51d1279f64286e8b9e46c8f2bdb424d59c22a0029a31f2e50718faa466.jpg

  • Mark Shinnick

    Good onya man :)

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb

    Ack, my eyes! trim the belly fat.

    so many (possible) pussy jokes, where do I start? – best to stay silent.
    Cheers.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Try not to kill it on the first day.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    There are some washboard abs somewhere in there screaming to be liberated.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    But I’m SO HUNGRY!

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    No exercise for a month, I’m gonna get fat. Baked in at this point.

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    Thanks BKX

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    The heart of it is:

    – Once the VIX gets low, it tends to stay that way and get even lower for a long while, longer than you think
    – Once it starts spiking it can spike HARD, WAY HARDER than you have any right to expect from traditional charting
    – Once it STOPS SPIKING and starts mean reverting, the mean reversion has extremely high probability of working
    – VX futures (and the VIX ETF’s) are not the same as VIX. Contango fucks with tradeability.

    Once you think about and internalise these properties, it’s possible to build a system based on one, or all of these attributes.

    Markets don’t often reward us for doing the emotionally easy thing. Very difficult to pull the trigger on a VX short at.

    One method for timing the mean reversion short.

    1) A massive spike upwards
    2) Follow through that is smaller in range (weaker)
    3) A break of the daily low go short

    Target is a long term moving average like a 100 EMA or 200 EMA
    No hard stop, exit on any close ABOVE the previous high

    Take the signals off the vix, trade the VXX or VX futures. Because of contango the wins aren’t multi-baggers like they appear to be, but they are very high probability. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ae2ece9ecb53d34cf93a5a4660cadefc1da29bf6ecb13e400eb6b467b7a0989.png

    You round the system out by staying short most of the time, since the market has an inherent short bias it’s logical. Use a very small volatility multiplier to build position size. No stop on that portion, but it exits when you go long for any reason.

    The long component is far trickier, but the best way is to have a filter based on volatility of the VX instrument. Only stalk long setups when volatility is the lowest in XX bars (60 days is a fine start for testing).

  • https://scottphillipstrading.com/trade-setup Scott Phillips

    ^^^What he said. VX futures, that’s the ticket

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • HD

    GM all, potential low week before OPEX, to be determined. ES is HWB 2459.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III