Hell’s Bells

You may not be aware of this but the stakes are extremely high right now. Equities are literally sitting on the last bastion of support and unless we see a bounce here things are about to get ugly – really ugly. That’s right – I’m talking hell’s bells ugly!

And yes, there is method to my madness. As I don’t want to post my volume profile chart for the third time in a row let me paint the overall picture across several timeframes:

I hope your browser is resilient as this is going to be a regular chartalanche. If you pulled this post on a mobile phone then my condolences for zapping your bandwidth limit. Let’s start with the E-Mini: In today’s early morning briefing I highlighted the 25-hour SMA and thus far it has been holding up famously – so far so good and that keeps us in the game. On the daily panel we busted a net-line sell level (NLSL) yesterday and are also below the 100-hour SMA. Possible target would be the 1320 range, unless…

… unless of course the 25-week SMA holds up. As it’s already Friday tomorrow (time really with all those red candles) this should get interesting.

Bear in mind that our bearish P&F price objective on the SPX is pretty close to being fulfilled. As I’m typing this we’re trading at around 1385. The implications of a continuation lower here can not be understated. If we don’t hold here (and stick to our P&F PO) then we are triggering a weekly sell signal at the SMA. We’d also be below the daily volume profile hole (see my previous posts) and there’s quite a bit of participation that could lead us lower.

A quick house cleaning item – AAPL is now at our final target. Actually it was yesterday already but it kind of slipped my mind. As it’s now outside the 100-day BB we want to be out. If you missed both entries then please go outside and kick a tree. I’m not ready to be long here yet, but give me a day or two, in particular if we see an attempt to paint a floor.

SETUPS!!!

Gold – at the 25-hour SMA – I want to be short here but will flip it for a long if we bust above 1730.

Crude – inside day setup plus it’s a narrow range 4 day. If you are a noob (or first time visitor) then please consult the cheat sheet for more details on how to trade those. Frankly, it’s so easy – a caveman could do it.

Another inside day on copper – same game. Bear in mind that these levels may change by the time we close today. Use the closing boundaries, not what you see on this chart.

And now for something completely different – stocks symbols! I’m seeing a lot of setups today and thought I’d indulge. GOOG – right at the 100-day SMA. Looks a bit like AAPL two weeks ago. Doesn’t mean it’ll drop into the abyss but right now I’m short with a stop above the SMA. If she pulls back up I’d be long after 667. Better hurry, this one is on the move.

Here’s the CME which is now trigger a short as it breached a NLSL and it should be golden once it drops below the SMA.

BG – right at its daily NLSL. Good chance it’ll hold and I want to be long here with a stop below.

CELG – now touching support. I want to be long with a stop below. Willing to flip if we make it through 71.

ISRG – also touching support. I want to be long until we breach through the NLS and the 25-day SMA. After that it’s a short trade.

Potential last kiss goodbye (LKGB) on LMT – I’m short with a stop above 91.

Pfizer – support seems to be holding and I’m sitting on a tiny long position (it’s a bit gappy for me).

Potash – possible support there. I’m still waiting for another candle tomorrow but we may get a bounce attempt here.

Exxon dropping below the 100-day support line – couldn’t happen to a nicer company, right? ;-)

Finally some good ole’ FX! That’s our bread and butter after all. EUR/AUD sitting right at the Maginot Line. I very much like what I’m seeing on the hourly panel. So I’m short with a stop above the 25-hour SMA. Hoping for a breach of the 100-day and continuation lower. Yes, I’ll flip it if we bust above the 25-hour. You guys know the game by now.

Inside day on EUR/CAD – you know what to do.

Last but not least – USD/CAD – again touching resistance. I am short but would be long after par, which is obviously a psychological resistance level. Great setup here – dont’ miss it!

This ought to keep you guys busy for a while ;-)

The future is now – so don’t bring a knife to a raygun fight. If you are interested in becoming a Zero subscriber then don’t waste time and sign up here. A Zero subscription comes with full access to all Gold posts, so you actually get double the bang for your buck.

Cheers,

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 8th, 2012 at 2:36 pm. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    gag, cough, too much charts, ack, buried, help.

  • AMCabrera

    I think the biggest lie is the aud/usd even more so than the nzd/usd.

  • Tronacate

    Trying a little ES long position here……

  • AMCabrera

    same with usd/sek. 4h it looks like ready to break either way.

  • ptosh

    hell’s bell’s averted for the time being.  IWM found support at 79.25 and looks to be bouncin.  should 79.21 fail look for mid 78′s.  from there next support looks to be 76.  

  • Skynard

    OK, got some longs back on. Lets go!

  • newbfxtrader

    Yep back in longs. Lets go!

  • Tronacate

    Starting to look like a bear flag more than a return to VWAP

  • AMCabrera
  • newbfxtrader

    Maybe but 1.06 first then breakdown.

  • bravenewworld2011

    SPX looks like hell everywhere but the weekly:

  • MrMargin

    Market makers may be pricing in a bottom. We almost fulfilled our P&F price target on the SPX and tested the 200d SMA complete with daily RSI divergence. SKEW came in at a low reading of 116.10 yeterday. VIX/VXO ratio took a massive dive and is now essentially in bounce territory (http://scharts.co/K6Nqrs). Retail seem to be scared as the ISE sentiment index came in at a low 76 yesterday which is outside the 2 std dev band. There was also a notable spike in TRIN yesterday (http://scharts.co/Kn43hT) which usually has accompanied an at least short-term bottom. My smoothed A/D ratio shows a divergence (http://scharts.co/MnhQUB) as does the UpVol/DownVol (http://scharts.co/Qdlcz2). Also, TRAN isn’t confirming INDU’s new lows (http://scharts.co/Z7uLl3). On top of all of this, positive seasonality is in effect and will kick into full force in mid-November. 
    Thus, I’ll be long as long as the bears are unable to break the 200d in a decisive manner.

  • Ashish Agarwal

    Its an Ending Diagonal on S&P. time to get back to longs, rise could be fast..

  • http://kas.tumblr.com/ Jack Damn

    Excellent post.

  • itcomesupinwaves

    Have you seen the EURUSD order book? 

  • ronebadger

    nice post

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    GLD 168.00

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Thanks Jack.

  • Skynard

    Buuuuulllllll Flag:)

  • Tronacate

    Gold butting right up against 25 day sma……..still long

  • Tronacate

    what bull flag and what timeframe???

  • Tronacate

    Maybe a bull flag on ZB……15 or 30 min……impulse…..pullback(flag) then up again

  • bdoone

    Closing at SPX 200d sma 1380.73 should make tomorrow quite interesting!

  • I Bergamot

    /ES. Margin liquidation again.  Open interest at 3052k (up by 100k in 2 days – boys getting short) and probably grown today. Get your bear hats on. Bulls need a miracle.

  • ronebadger

    Gee, you’d think the Mole was traveling the past couple days…..

  • AMCabrera

     I guess you see th same plug I see that is keeping eur/usd from falling uh.

  • Skynard

    It looks like a bust

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    maybe he has.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    diarrhea close.

  • I Bergamot

     bloody bottom?

  • AMCabrera
  • AMCabrera

    http://content.screencast.com/users/AMCabrera/folders/Jing/media/bd83f12e-764b-4af5-9da6-5cdd6eeb15d1/2012-11-08_1613.png
    Also, the great lie aka aud/usd. Techinally yes it “may” be in sucker move territory but it does not curve off the right way.

  • newbfxtrader

    Yep looks like another Defcon day. Where is fearless.

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb

    eating baby seals.
    (I have an awesome blood on snow pic, but you know who limits…)

  • ronebadger

    I think a hot babe pic is in order for today….and long overdue

  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • http://dartht.blogspot.com/ Darth_Gerb
  • I Bergamot

     in Soviet Russia…

  • BobbyLow

    Hi Folks,

    I’ve been quiet the last few days as I’ve been re-back testing currency trades.  The reason being is that it was easy finding entries but very difficult finding proper exits.   Been trading Forex going on three months now and still a baby.  At first I took it slow and easy with real small positions and that was OK.  Then I thought I would be able to scalp pairs throughout the day and that was bullshit.  (at least for me)   

    I read somebody’s post today that said he made 24 Trades on the EUR/USD in 24 Hours.  Holy shit!  That’s might be like going into a whorehouse and screwing a different gal every hour for 24 Hours.  Good for him but I’m getting too old for that shit.   :)

    I was almost finished with today’s back test when I read what Mole said about his particular trade in that he had to be prepared to give back all of of his short term gains.  Not being a mind reader, I assume that is because unless he gave the trade room to run, he might not be in the trade when it broke for bigger money.  

    That being said, I’m holding two Short Pairs at the moment and they are the AUD/JPY and NZD/CAD.  They both up about 60 PIPS each.  Both have room to run and Exit Conditions are in place.  I like it much better  this way instead of trying to grab a few PIPS at a time.  

    I’ll also go Long USD/CAD before 5 PM.  That might be a good one and thanks for the heads up Mole.   

    On the negative side, I got whacked pretty good on my long Oil position yesterday and I gave up my gains on that trade and some.  I also added a little to the position just before yesterday’s close.  (I hate to add to losing positions but $4.00 Moves don’t come very often and I felt it was worth the gamble)

    Just thought I would say hello and put in my 2 Cents.  

  • Joe_Jones

    hiding. hehehe ;-)

  • Joe_Jones

    Had a great day today. Out of shorts, with only one tiny lottery ticket left (less than 10% of position). Mostly in cash now. Today down move was weaker than yesterday, so I am expecting a bounce tomorrow, unless all hell breaks loose of course.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Good job JJ – you’re on a roll.

  • badflightrisk

    Since its snowing on the east coast!

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    ¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°¨ 
    ¨°º¤ø„¸  N E W  „ø¤º°¨ 
    ¸„ø¤º°¨ P O S T “°º¤ø„¸
    ¸„ø¤º°¨¤ø„¸¸„ø¤º°º¤ø„¸

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Ooooh….

  • ronebadger

    rub it in

    (rub it somewhere…)

  • ridingwaves

    Outstanding red leader…picked a bad time for business in portland..

  • ridingwaves

    no it’s me…another indicator to use…

  • Skynard

    The 5 min chart was more of a triangle, but if you look at the 5 min ZL you could see the div near resolution from the past few days. The div failed at the end of the session.

  • Skynard

    Lol, what I don’t understand is why AUDJPY goes down with Yen and AUD strength, it looks ready for a bounce. Have been long /6A and it has been holding up well. It still looks bullish to me, but with reverse if it breaks that hourly 20sma. Like now to hold my gains.

  • newbfxtrader

    good work!




    Zero Indicator


    Darth Mole Alerts

  1. poll

    • What is your average spread on the EUR/USD?



      view results

      Loading ... Loading ...


  2. NinjaTrader
    Kinetick

    search warrant



  3. recent misdeeds

    1. Happy Turkey Slaughter!
    2. One Chart Says It All
    3. Monday Snooze
    4. Monday Morning Briefing
    5. The Slow Walk-Down
    6. It Keeps Going And Going And….
    7. The Bots Are Back!
    8. An Impending Trend Shift?
    9. Fade The Noise – Play The Game
    10. Tuesday Morning Briefing