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History In The Making
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History In The Making

by The MoleMarch 2, 2017

Ludwig van Beethoven’s Symphony No. 7 in A major, consists of four incredible movements and was composed between the years 1811 and 1812, at which time the poor man had already turned almost completely deaf. I must admit that listening to this symphony in particular often brings tears to my eyes. First as a visceral response to its unparalleled beauty and technical perfection, but even more so knowing that Beethoven never had been able to actually listen to his own creation.

The story almost seems like a cruel punishment of the Gods portrayed in ancient Greek or Roman mythology. To be handed such a divine talent or gift, but at the same time losing your own ability to enjoy it the more you actually use it. I can only imagine the mental anguish and emotional torment Beethoven was forced to endure over the course of about 20 years up until his death. He died pretty poor as most of his income was dependent on live performances (Spotify wasn’t available until about 180 years later), which obviously turns into a tough act to pull off if you’re as deaf as rock wrapped into a blanket.

I sometimes wonder if the knowledge of his future fame would have offered him much solace. Knowing the mentality of the Germans quite well as I sprung from that same gene pool I can assure you that we are quite a narcissistic bunch underneath the cold exterior. So my hunch would be that it would probably offered him at least some comfort. What impresses me the most however is that his torment did not detract him from his mission to do what he was born to do and he continued writing two more symphonies of which the 9th is the one he most definitely never heard a single tone.

Now think about that next time when you’re having a tough day or when you find yourself blaming others or your circumstances for not being able to pursue your dreams. Beethoven was a giant and unfortunately they don’t make them like this anymore.

2017-03-02_spoos_update

Now what inspired this intro was the concept of perfection, to which LVB’s 7th symphony is without doubt a timeless example. When it comes to trading of course we sometimes refer to charts or campaigns in an emotional fashion, but rarely do they entail the concept of perfection and beauty. But if I look at our entry three weeks ago and consider the ensuing rally then I cannot help but feel awe and joy. For one we were able to jump on board and that’s on us, we should be proud. But this rally stands on its own in that it is almost historical in its relentless propagation.

If someone would ask me to point toward one of the best campaigns in my life then this one would probably be among the top three. I remember riding gold and crude a year or two ago but although those rallies were impressive I believe they are thwarted by this one. Could we be looking at perfection here? A rally that future traders will point toward and say – “heck grandpa/grandma, I wish I had been around to jump on that one.” And you’ll say “well, as a matter of fact…”

Anyway, this campaign is now bordering the ridiculous and I’m now advancing my stop to below the 2380 mark. There’s really nothing left to be said here – technically we are in uncharted territory and it’ll end when it will end. We don’t ask questions and ride it until that moment arrives.

2017-03-02_silver_update

Silver hasn’t gone anywhere and my trailing stop remains where it is. Could we be painting a little pennant here? If so then we’re in good shape but we could fall prey to a fake out spike lower. I’m comfortable trailing where I’m at however.

2017-03-02_gold_setup

Gold has lost much of its luster in the past few days but I think we’ve got a possible long candidate here again once the short term panel paints something resembling a spike low preferably followed by a retest. I very much like the context on the daily panel. Although gold has been pounded lately I think this may be the big shake out before a jump higher. We’ve accumulated a ton of support context here just a few handles away and the potential for a continuation of the current daily trend is pretty good.

2017-03-03_events

Yellen is scheduled to deliver a speech tomorrow and perhaps that’s why equities are in a rush to paint a bit more green before she says something stupid. I for one won’t add any more exposure until then. Ms. Market has been good to me/us and there’s no reason to test my luck.


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • Mark Shinnick

    Long volatility at the open. Only looking for a marginal move.

  • Tomcat

    I would be very interested in $CL at $52 or vicinity.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    What – nobody touching miners today? 😉

  • Mark Shinnick

    Ok, objective met, closed that.

  • Mark Shinnick

    Mostly noise to me right now.

  • BobbyLow

    I already have a position because I got back in short yesterday right after they rallied.

    Miners and Nutty Gas are my new Oil – at least for the time being. :)

    Thanks for the post on Beethoven. He is one of my favorite composers. I’m listening to it right now.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    My favorite actually is JSB with Beethoven a close second, Tchaikovsky third, and Schubert fourth.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Did any of you ever see Barry Lyndon? If not then do yourself a favor and watch it this weekend.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjPSGuJskxM

  • rmwaddelljr

    Beethoven’s secret (part at least), like mine, is that he heard it in his own mind’s ear, which, IMO is more powerful because it NEVER goes away:) Imagine, hearing that much beauty & writing it down, unedited, complete and replaying it in your mind at will.

    So, dear Mole, as LVB is to composing & orchestrating, you are in a realm to traders on a similar path. Your sin? You ain’t perfect. LVB is:) Food for thought.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Far from perfect my friend, but working on it 😉

  • BobbyLow

    Many, many years ago as an undergrad, I enrolled in an elective course in music. Our exams were listening to various pieces of music from numerous composers including the favorites you mentioned and more. The professor would play about 20 seconds of a piece and we would have to write down the composer, the name of the symphony and the movement. I’ve been a fan ever since.

  • JackSparow
  • Tomcat

    There may come a day, and that may never come, when S&P will close down 1%+

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • JackSparow

    Rum..yes yes 😉
    .. now the trick is to sit tight and wait for Price to Paint us a downward scenario..
    Possibly something that could displace one of Herr Mole’s top 3 campaign candidates

  • bluprint

    “Society grows great when old men plant trees whose shade they know they shall never sit in.”

    ? Anonymous Greek Proverb

  • StockTalker

    well done matey

  • ridingwaves

    SNAP IPO is out of the way…..what say you mm’s

  • StockTalker

    Wheels are rolling

  • kudra

    Currently L NUGT. If GDX closes below $22.50, will close NUGT. If this current support above $22 doesn’t hold, GDX looks destined for $20.

  • ridingwaves

    CL lost the 100sma, shake out or something worse….

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    Beautiful. And a sentiment that has long been forgotten.

  • AcoBrasil

    Took out a small SPXU position today. Should have pulled yesterday.

  • http://gerb-reloaded.blogspot.com/ Gold_Gerb
  • kudra

    wow, what a collapse in gold and GDX. Looks like i’m facing a loss on this one.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    LOL – how cute.

  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III
  • http://evilspeculator.com Sir Mole III

    HA! Blasphemy!!!

  • JackSparow

    thx

  • BobbyLow

    I’ve got to ask why you would go long NUGT when the Short Side is so strong? Another thing is that I found that this is one exception to the rule where charting NUGT actually works out better than charting GDX – at least it does for me.

  • kudra

    You’re right, BL, GDX has been pointing down – clue was when gold was going up and GDX didn’t respond in turn. GDX losing $24 was the sign to get short. Unfortunately, I was already long – got trapped on Monday, after making $ on NUGT in the morning. Instead of exiting on tues, added to the position tues, wed, and today. Poor trading. I’m done adding. Will be paying close attention to $22, which it seems to have recaptured for the time being, and the close.

  • BobbyLow

    I’m a newbie at trading the miners but I’ve done a lot of back testing in this sector and “I slept in a Holiday Inn last night” so I’m currently Short for the second time this week. :)

    I’ve had bad experiences adding to losing positions. But in any event, you might want to think about a basic thought about trading and this is it is much more important to know what price you are going to get out of a trade than knowing what price you are going to get into one.

  • kudra

    right on, BL. You are in sync with the miners.
    I sorely need to clean up my game.

  • Billabong

    Don’t count those chickens yet … GC / SI are currently sitting at the 25 EMA on the daily.

  • saltwaterdog

    I found (and I imagine many here have also learned) that one simple adjustment to make is to ask yourself if you are calling a low in a downtrend or a high in an uptrend with your entry, and if so, don’t take it.

  • BobbyLow

    Was going to hold DUST until the COB tomorrow unless stopped under “normal” circumstances but I put a $1.00 Trailing Stop on it instead. Will be out by COB today one way or another. The trades in DUST this week are at an average weekly MFE point so there is no sense of being greedy.

  • Billabong

    Be careful on miners with big slap downs … I’ve missed a number of volcanic reversals to the upside. The CL Gravestone three days ago followed by a Doji (daily) was a real tell….

  • ridingwaves

    always possible to push gold to 1220 support….

  • BobbyLow

    Looks like I’ll be flipping from a net long in Crude to a net Short in Crude by the COB today. My patience with Crude is wearing extremely thin. What was once a true love of mine has become nothing but a big pain in my ass over the past 10 Weeks and we could end up in divorce court at some point in the near future. :)

  • saltwaterdog

    Yesterday’s low in GC at the 20dma and trendline support provided a nice hammer in an uptrend, and it failed…. quite a message imo

  • BobbyLow

    Sure could RW. But these 3X’s move so fast and when they get near an average weekly “Maximum Favorable Excursion”, I think the odds begin to go against me. I also was not planning to hold over the weekend anyway.

  • BobbyLow

    I don’t have the balls to trade the daily on this. The wild swings would probably drive me crazy. I might be able to revisit it on Monday using my tighter time frame. We’ll see.

  • ridingwaves

    weekly GC was stopped dead by 50sma- yesterday chart
    https://s17.postimg.org/lgseziuq7/GC_3_1_17.png

  • AcoBrasil

    You want thrills and chills try trading EWZ/BRZU. I pulled out of both yesterday – thank god.

  • BobbyLow

    Wow!

  • StockTalker

    Follow through

  • BobbyLow

    Out on DUST at $36.75. That’s +$9.86 on two trades this week. These first couple of dates went pretty good. Who the fuck needs Crude anyway? :)

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m wondering what happens if yesterday’s gap up fills.

  • StockTalker

    Could see a bounce

  • AcoBrasil

    Last Thursday’s move was equally terrifying for the shorts. Without adjusting for inflation, the underlying index hit its ATH. Amazing considering the state of Brazil’s economy.

  • AcoBrasil

    Equivalent gap down could create an island top.

  • StockTalker

    That’s what I’m watching.

  • AcoBrasil

    I’m looking at 2275 for a possible exit. Maybe getting ahead of myself though.

  • AcoBrasil

    I hope they run it back to about 2420. I want to beef up my short position.

  • Billabong

    LOL….

  • StockTalker

    Rut Roe, she’s got legs

  • ridingwaves

    XLF selling off, really needs to get below 24.30 to get dark red

  • Mark Shinnick

    Interesting and unusual days…how much of this important gap fills?

  • ridingwaves

    financials have carried this leg up so any continued weakness might help with down move…the gap at SPY 237 is too juicy and would not surprise me to see the 235 gap come into play…first dip below 20 on Willams % since 2-9
    https://s30.postimg.org/4r6zve6i9/SPY_3217.png

  • evilasevildoes
  • evilasevildoes

    $GDX looks like the YP is going to hold today. There’s a Big buyer of March 10, $23c @ .10 today. If YP holds, MP is the target @ $23.73.