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Who Cares About Equities?
21

Who Cares About Equities?

by The MoleDecember 21, 2011

Today’s sideways session was to be expected as some consolidation is almost obligatory after a big surprise move to the upside. But we should really not be worried about equities at the current time. It’s a comparatively small market to begin with plus the few prop desks who are left trading are way too busy taking us for a ride. Which means a lot of volatility, screwy indicator readings, and thus only limited edge. If you however look beyond equities then you’ll find setups galore.

Yesterday I told you guys to look out for that 2210 NLBL on cocoa. I have an inkling it’s going to get retested again but if you got in here then set your stop and stick with the program. It’ll try to shake us out for sure – but that does not give us license to extend our risk exposure should our stop be touched. Remember if you don’t have access to futures then you still can play this setup via NIB. But be warned – it does not have a perfect correlation, especially when things get volatile. Anyway it should not matter if this thing resolves (to the upside) as expected.

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If you prefer coffee then this is your lucky day as it’s currently playing with its NLBL. To me the current candle looks like a failure and I would wait for a retest and a close above 220.5.

On the bonds side the 30-year treasuries are currently dropping through the 143.75 NLSL – that’s bearish of course. However I see some support on the hourly panel and there’s also the 25-day SMA looming right below. So I would be actually long here with a stop right below the SMA – if that one goes then we are dropping toward 140.

Almost identical setup on the 10-year treasury bond futures – play it the same way.

Now on to FX – the NZD/USD has reverted all the way back to its 0.7674 NLBL. I love these types of setups as they represent minimal risk. You can be long here with a stop just a few ticks below that NLBL. FYI – I would not be interested in a short trade here if this setup fails – the 25-day SMA looming below is way to close.

The AUD/JPY busted through its first NLBL but made a u-turn at the second one at 79.29. Now it’s back to the 100-day SMA scratching its head and waitingfor instructions. Also a good long setup IMNSHO – if the 100-day fails then things are getting messy – not necessarily bearish as there’s more support below but I would not play the downside especially during the holidays. So this is a great opportunity to be long with once again enjoying a stop just a few ticks below that SMA.

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Cheers,


About The Author
The Mole
Mole created Evil Speculator amidst the chaos of the financial crisis in early August of 2008. His vision for Evil Speculator is a refuge of reason, hands-on trading knowledge, and inspiration for traders of all ages and stripes. You can follow him and his nefarious schemes at various social media waterholes below.
  • K.I.M.

    no comment.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    seems like equities want to go higher..
    A little bit of red and everybody is already looking for a top, trying to sell, when in fact after 300 + points yday on DOW this pullback is expected and orderly…1/3 given back and now rallying (as Mole put it)

    A few other blogs also getting excited about the downside so methinks it won’t be that easy watch 12225 on DOW has held back all attempts at breaking out..

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You are reading other blogs? Shame on you! 😉

  • Anonymous

    Well maybe he doesnt like watching SNL and instead uses that as a substitute. I for one find all of them funny.

  • http://iberianviews.blogspot.com/ catracho

    it’s all research ! Looking forward to New Year..! 

  • Joe_Jones
  • Anonymous

    The NZD setup you posted above is *excellent*

  • Anonymous

    On a bright note Managed Fucking Globalist liquidators returned a lot (maybe all) of what they owed me. This is a bit old news as I did not look at that account for a few days.   

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Hey, how have you been? Taking the month off?

  • Fibz

    currencies seem stuck in an intra-day range. yawn.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Nice – I hope Volar got his back as well.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Who doesn’t like SNL – it’s ridiculously funny! They have a pretty good crew lately – almost as funny as in the old days.

  • Anonymous

    setting up for an up day tomorrow seems?

  • Anonymous

    Some talent after a long dry spell, but the writing is bad and most of the show is padding.  FWIW, it’s unlikely anyone will ever be as funny as John Belushi… 

  • Anonymous

    Newest bubble forming. Overpriced protection to a 2008 style crash. There I said it.

  • Anonymous

    This tape is not cool for my methods of trading, I use tighter stops than anyone else I know so the low volume  (surprise move) tape throws my edges out the window, and makes them coin flips. Not for me bro, not for me 🙂

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    You cannot beat Belushi – but it’s more than that. It’s not the same country anymore and the times have changed a lot. You can still make outrageous jokes – sure – but the spirit of the population has changed drastically. Can you imagine the folks back in the 60s and 70s letting Congress get away with the shit they do these days? We were a different people back then and Hollywood would simply not produce anything resembling Blues Brothers these days. Instead we get Hangover 2 – which I must concede was fucking funny, but I also think it was done via typical Hollywood comedy recipe du jour.

  • http://evilspeculator.com molecool

    Don’t blame you there mate – December is obviously not a month you want to take on big positions. If it wasn’t for the blog I would probably just take the rest of the month off 😉

  • Anonymous

     imagine the folks back in the 60s and 70s letting Congress get away with the shit they do these days?
    mmmm I would say yes, even more so back in those days, Cold War was a epic bull market IMO. When it comes to finance nothing has changed.

  • Anonymous

    there I didn’t get it..lol

  • Anonymous

    NEW POST!